Happy Family Day to (most of) our Canadian readers, Happy Presidents' Day to our American readers, and Happy Monday to everyone else. With Monday being a holiday in much of the NHL's territory, puck drop starts at 12:30 PM EST, so make sure to set your lineups early!

Since there were only three games on Sunday, I thought I'd start today's Ramblings by highlighting a few interesting trends. Let's start with some lowkey Lightning.

Although he's more frequently recognized for his defense than his offense, Anthony Cirelli has been putting up numbers lately. With 14 points in his last 12 outings, he's a top-20 scorer over the past month. Three of those points came with the man advantage as Cirelli has seen a 38% share of Tampa's power-play time during this stretch. That may not seem like a lot, but he'd been stuck at 23% earlier in the year, posting just two power-play points in his first 43 appearances of the campaign. Cirelli has been skating on Tampa's star-studded top PP over the past two games, making him an even more enticing option. It seems most haven't recognized this recent opportunity and production as he's still available in 93% of Yahoo Leagues.

On the topic of underrated producers in Tampa Bay – how about Brandon Hagel. Over the past month, Connor McDavid (16) is the only player with more even-strength points than Hagel (15). The Lightning winger ranks 33^rd in league scoring with 52 points in 56 games this season. Among the league's top-50 scorers, he's the only one with such a miniscule power-play role, seeing just 26% of Tampa's time with the man advantage thus far.  

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Imagine a hamburger from McDonald's – frozen for months before it's cooked and placed under a heat lamp. Accompanying this burger on its voyage from cold to hot, we have two power plays, one from Washington and one from St. Louis. Between October and December, the Capitals' and Blues' power plays sat in the basement, sporting success rates of 11%. Although they were ice cold at the end of 2023, both teams turned on the heat in 2024. Since the beginning of January, Washington has converted on 24% of its power-play chances while St. Louis is up at 28%. As you can see below, key players from both teams have seen their individual production improve as a result of this turnaround.

	October-December (power-play points/game)	January-February (power-play points/game)
Robert Thomas (STL)	0.14	0.67
T.J. Oshie (WSH)	0.10	0.40
Jordan Kyrou (STL)	0.17	0.44
Pavel Buchnevich (STL)	0.12	0.33
Alex Ovechkin (WSH)	0.26	0.44
John Carlson (WSH)	0.21	0.21
Dylan Strome (WSH)	0.21	0.16

The table above only features players who've played prominent power-play roles all season, which is why you don't see Jake Neighbours listed for St. Louis. The 21-year-old forward has been a key piece of St. Louis' recent power-play success. Through 18 games in 2024, he's racked up seven points with the man advantage, seeing a 55% share of St. Louis' power-play time. That number was at just 24% between October and December, when he tallied just three power-play points in 36 games.

While the Blues and Caps went from frozen to fresh, Vegas has taken the opposite trajectory. After posting a 22% success rate during the 2023 portion of the campaign, the Golden Knights are down to 11% in 2024. After tallying 13 power-play points in his first 37 games, Mark Stone only has one in his last 17. Jonathan Marchessault's power-play output follows a similar pattern. Both players have posted respectable overall numbers despite the team's struggles on the man advantage, which suggests they're capable of even more once the power-play starts clicking. Jack Eichel and Shea Theodore are expected to return soon, so there's some light at the end of this tunnel.

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The Rangers came away with a 6-5 overtime victory in Sunday's outdoor game, stealing a point from the Islanders, who led 4-1 in the second.

THE GOAL COUNTS. PANARIN SCORES THE OT-WINNER 10 SECONDS INTO OVERTIME 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/kh0ERRlNoZ

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) February 18, 2024

Although he's credited with the win, Igor Shesterkin surrendered five goals on 41 shots. He didn't really build momentum from Monday's shutout of the Flames. Considering Jonathan Quick's been in better form lately, it'll be interesting to see whether Quick or Shesterkin gets the call against Dallas' dangerous offense on Tuesday.

Jimmy Vesey had a low-event game considering his new high-profile role. With Blake Wheeler sidelined, Vesey was promoted to the 'top' line beside Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. I imagine Vesey could get a sustained stretch in this role. The team's second and third lines have been playing well lately, so it doesn't make sense to move anyone else around.

Speaking of that effective third line, Kaapo Kakko continues to play well beside Will Cuylle and Jonny Brodzinski. Kakko tallied an assist on Sunday to give him six points in his last eight games. Given his pedigree, there's a chance he moves up to the top line at some point, but I don't think that significantly increases his rest-of-season fantasy value. Kakko didn't do much beside Kreider and Zibanejad earlier in the year, and after missing seven weeks with an injury, I'm not sure he's taken the necessary strides to be more productive in that role. This final stretch of the season could set the stage for a future breakout, but I don't think he's someone you need to pick up in one-year leagues.

Ilya Sorokin surrendered six goals on 38 shots in Sunday's loss. He's played six games since Patrick Roy took over as head coach on January 20^th. This is the first time he's allowed more than three goals in a game under Roy.

With three points on Sunday, Noah Dobson is on pace for 88 this season. He's currently the highest-scoring defender in 2024, boasting 23 points through 18 contests. Looking at the blueliner scoring race for 2024, there were a few names that caught my eye. Rookie defenseman Brock Faber ranks seventh, posting 17 points in 19 appearances. Then there's 22-year-old Thomas Harley, who's right behind with 16 in 20. The young guns have been recognized frequently, but veteran Gustav Forsling has flown under the radar with 15 points in 18 games this year.

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Cam Talbot stopped 29 of the 30 shots he faced Sunday, leading the Kings to a 2-1 victory over Pittsburgh. This was Talbot's first win in nearly two months, as his last one came December 23^rd against the Flames. It's also just the second time in Talbot's last nine appearances that he's posted a save percentage above .900. David Rittich has been getting more starts lately, but he's been up and down over LA's past few games, leaving the door open for Talbot. The Kings have a relatively easy schedule this week, up against Columbus, Nashville and Anaheim. I imagine Talbot starts at least one of those games, and if he performs well, he could start prying the starting role back from Rittich. Given LA's strong team defense and weak rest-of-season schedule, it could be worth having both Talbot and Rittich on your fantasy team down the stretch.  

While Talbot kept pucks out of the net Sunday, Adrian Kempe put them in. The 27-year-old winger scored both of LA's goals, giving him a team-leading 47 points through 53 games. That translates to 73 points over 82 games, which represents a step forward from last year's 66-point pace.

With Jake Guentzel injured, Pittsburgh's top line now features Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust and Sidney Crosby. Those three are also on the team's top power-play unit, which is rounded out by Evgeni Malkin and Erik Karlsson. Crosby, Karlsson and Rust combined for a power-play goal on Sunday, which ended up being the only one Pittsburgh scored. If your fantasy team needs a replacement for Guentzel, Rust is a good in-house option. If you're in a deeper league, Rakell might be too.

Guentzel's been an elite fantasy asset because he possesses high-end talent, skates over 20 minutes a night, holds a top power-play role, and racks up a lot of shots. I don't think Rust and Rakell match that mould, so I'd prefer outsourcing my replacement for Guentzel. Here are a few wingers worth considering:

Juraj Slafkovksy – The first overall pick from 2022 has been racking up points and turning heads lately, but those paying attention know his strong play isn't a sudden phenomenon. For some time now, Slafkovsky has put up a high-level of play to match his high-level opportunity. Over the past two months, he's averaged roughly 19 minutes of action per game, enjoying a 72% share of Montreal's time with the man advantage. That's led him to 22 points in 24 outings, which translates to 75 through 82. He's been shooting the puck more frequently in recent games, racking up 25 shots in his last seven appearances.

SUZUKI x2 🚨

Slafkovsky finds Suzuki on power-play to extend the Canadiens lead to 3-0. pic.twitter.com/589mCdwnLp

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) February 14, 2024

Owen Tippett – The Flyers' winger has 13 points in his last 13 games, skating 18 minutes a night and seeing significant time with the man advantage. Over the past two months, Tippett has taken 4.36 shots per game. David Pastrnak and Nathan MacKinnon are the only players averaging more shots during that span.

OWEN TIPPETT! GREAT SHIFT. GREAT SHOT. 2-1!#StadiumSeries #PHIvsNJD #LetsGoFlyers pic.twitter.com/9aCMSzj5q1

— Flyers Clips (@Flyers_Clips) February 18, 2024

Kyle Palmieri – If you're in a deeper league, Palmieri could be a decent short-term replacement for Guentzel. The 33-year-old forward has never really been a high-volume shooter, but he's racked up 49 in his last 11 outings – bolstered by three games with eight shots or more. I'm not sure how long this shooting behaviour will last, but it's coincided with some impressive offense as he has nine points during this stretch, seeing 69% of New York's time with the man advantage.

Viktor Arvidsson – After missing the start of the year while recovering from back surgery, the 30-year-old forward played his first three games of the campaign last week. He posted two points, saw prominent power-play minutes, and racked up four shots per game. He may still be sitting on your league's waiver wire because he'd been sidelined for so long.  

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Arizona suffered their ninth-straight loss on Sunday. During this slump, they've surrendered a league-worst 4.44 goals per game. Karel Vejmelka has been forced to start the team's last four games with Connor Ingram injured. After allowing four goals against the Avs on Sunday, Vejmelka has now surrendered four or more in seven of his last 10 games, cementing himself as the weaker of Arizona's top-two goalies.

A man of many talents, Nathan MacKinnon impersonated the Road Runner on Sunday, running circles around the Coyotes. He tallied a goal and an assist, giving him 91 points through 56 games – a point total that ranks second to only Nikita Kucherov (94). MacKinnon posted nine shots against Arizona, giving him 259 on the year. His 4.63 shots per game are only beaten by David Pastrnak, who's averaging 5.02.

Devon Toews gives the Avalanche the lead in the third period! #GoAvsGo pic.twitter.com/YL5yEr8fNp

— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights & News (@HockeyDaily365) February 19, 2024

Although he registered two assists on Sunday, Matias Maccelli's recent production still doesn't look all that impressive. After tallying 27 points in his first 35 games between October and December (0.77 points/game), he has just nine through 19 in 2024 (0.47 points/game).

Bowen Byram also had a two-assist outing on Sunday – his third-straight two-point game. Byram doesn't get the power-play time to post huge offensive numbers, but he's managed a respectable 45-point pace in recent years despite limited minutes with the man advantage.   

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Thanks for reading! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!