Ramblings: Bemstrom Trade, Binnington’s Success, Stone Injury (Feb 24)

Ian Gooding

2024-02-24

The minor trade on Thursday involving Emil Bemstrom and Alex Nylander should barely generate a ripple in most fantasy leagues. Yet since I was discussing it with at least a couple people in private conversations, I'll share my thoughts here. With the injury (and possible trade) of Jake Guentzel, Bemstrom is in a similar boat to Matthew Phillips, who was picked up off waivers by the Penguins from the Capitals a week ago. Both Bemstrom and Phillips are now in their mid-20s that have posted strong (PT+/GP) numbers in the AHL, but they haven't been able to gain much traction at the NHL level. The Pens are bringing both in to see if something clicks, but beyond that treat this situation as now or never for both. For now, they're only worth adding in the absolute deepest of pools.  

The price to acquire Bemstrom (Nylander, conditional sixth-round pick in 2026) is not all that costly. The condition seems like quite a jump, as the sixth-round pick becomes a third-round pick if Bemstrom scores at least six goals over the remainder of the season. This type of condition might make trades seem less entertaining to armchair GMs, but it encourages more trades in a time when we don't see them as often. Remember, part of the fear of making trades is that the player you trade away turns into a star with their new team. I wonder if one day keeper fantasy leagues will enable an option like this.

Also, in case you haven't noticed, Bemstrom has already played 200 NHL games. He is only 24, so he is the same age as what I'd consider an "old" prospect. If an under-25 player has spent time in the NHL but then is sent to the AHL, can they go back to being a prospect? This was a great question that was brought up in the Thursday episode of the Vancouver-based Donnie and Dhali show (somewhere in the middle, can't remember the specific time). They were referring specifically to Vasily Podkolzin, who has played the entire 2023-24 season in the AHL after playing 118 career NHL games. Podkolzin is 22 years of age, by the way. I say he is a prospect, since I believe he'll be back in the NHL at some point.

With Mark Stone out of the lineup, Michael Amadio has recently been bumped up to the top power play. Amadio has goals in three consecutive games, and he also added five shots and two hits on Thursday. Amadio is rostered in just 8 percent of Fantrax leagues, which should give you an idea of how widely available he is. If you're in a deep league, he's worth searching for, as Stone could be out for a while.

Speaking of Stone, the easy assumption is that the Golden Knights will LTIR him until Game 1 of the playoffs. That would clear enough cap space for them to acquire Guentzel! I'm not suggesting that is or isn't the plan, but the fact that seems to be lost in the discourse is that Stone is a big-time Band-Aid Boy. He played fewer than half of his team's games over the previous two seasons because of his recurring back issues. The back hadn't been enough of a problem that he was forced to miss games this season, which is notable since I made a point not to draft him in any of my leagues because I thought it would be.

I'll use an analogy of something many of us can relate to, especially myself recently. If you've had the same car for at least a decade, you'll know that your car will have more than one issue resulting in expensive repair costs. You also can't predict when these issues will happen, so you'll have to budget for them anyway. Even if Stone's back is fine, we still have to make an allowance for other possible injuries. The spleen is not something that could have been predicted, so it certainly is bad luck. But in a way, if you drafted Stone, you shouldn't have expected a full season anyway. Near point-per-game production will be difficult to make up, but fantasy teams should at least be happy that he has provided that so far.

The Arizona Coyotes have placed Adam Ruzicka on unconditional waivers for the purpose of terminating his contract. Video surfaced on Instagram of Ruzicka showing what appeared to be a white powdered substance and a credit card on a plate. Ruzicka had no points in three games with the Coyotes after being claimed off waivers from the Flames. He had 20 points in 44 games for the Flames last season.

By observing one of my fantasy teams, I had thought that Jordan Binnington has been playing well. Yet after reviewing the most recent Geek of the Week, I didn't know how well he was playing. Updating Ryan's article by a few days, Binnington is now the league leader in quality weeks and quality week percentage (15 QW, 75.0 QW%). If you're not familiar with quality weeks, it is described as "when a goalie has performed above the weekly average in two out of three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA)."

Binnington's most recent start was a 38-save shutout against the Islanders on Thursday. Since January 1, Binnington has posted only one really bad start in 14 games, which is also impressive. Binnington had an average draft position of 170 in Yahoo leagues, and I managed to grab him at pick 227 in one of my Yahoo leagues. Fantasy teams have stayed away from Binnington because his numbers have declined since his rookie Stanley Cup run in 2019, but he is making a case to be one of this season's examples of why Zero G can work.

On a side note, I don't usually watch many Blues games. But I haven't seen any shenanigans from Binnington this season. Maybe he's made a conscious effort to handle adversity differently, which is making a difference in his results.

Another goalie that was identified in the Geek of the Week article as having a strong true value was Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. While Binnington was third in true value, Luukkonen was seventh. He added to that on Friday, stopping 25 of 26 shots in the Sabres' 2-1 win over Columbus. UPL continues to be hot, as he has four wins and four quality starts over his last five games. Remember when multiple Dobber writers told you not to focus on Devon Levi but instead turn your attention to Luukkonen if you were targeting a Sabres' goalie? Levi might be their goalie of the future, but Luukkonen is their goalie of the present.

In his 54th game of the season (and as a Sabre), Connor Clifton scored his first goal of the season. I'd say that helps no one, but Clifton seems to be rostered in the odd league because of his ability to accrue hits and blocked shots.

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In a 2-1 game, there isn't much to mention in the way of scoring, so I'll focus on goalies. Daniil Tarasov has picked up quality starts in back-to-back games, allowing two goals in each game. I'm not sure if Elvis Merzlikins is still looking for a different scenario, but he might not be too happy if Tarasov gets the next start on Sunday against the Rangers.  

–  

The Jets survived a late scare from the Blackhawks in the form of a game-tying goal with less than a minute to play in regulation. Kyle Connor scored the game-winning goal just 25 seconds into overtime to secure the win for Winnipeg.

Nikolaj Ehlers scored the first two goals for the Jets, while Josh Morrissey assisted on all three goals. Morrissey in particular is hot right now with six points (all assists) over his last three games. After finishing with a breakout 76 points last season, Morrissey is on pace for "just" 61 points, which could place him among the top-10 defensemen in scoring.

Connor Hellebuyck picked up his fourth win and fourth quality start over his last five games. He is arguably the top goalie in fantasy hockey this season, whether that be based on basic stats or on true value from the Geek of the Week.

Calvin Pickard's win streak came to an end at six games on Friday, as he allowed three goals on 18 shots in the Oilers' 4-2 loss to Minnesota. Pickard has posted decent numbers (7-3-0, 2.53 GAA, .905 SV%) as the backup to Stuart Skinner. Jack Campbell continues to be inconsistent in the AHL (see his AHL Profile Page), so Pickard appears to be safe as the Oilers' backup goalie for now.

In the Minnesota win, Matt Boldy scored both goals and filled the statsheet with a plus-3 and seven shots. Boldy has had a very strong week, as he started it off with a goal and three assists when the Wild torched the Canucks for 10 goals on Monday. Going back a bit further, Boldy has been hot recently with 13 points over his last seven games, including five multipoint efforts. He has also helped his cause with nearly five shots per game over that span.

Filip Gustavsson bounced back from that high-scoring game against Vancouver where he allowed five goals on 16 shots before getting pulled. Gustavsson was the busier of the two goalies in the Oilers/Wild game, stopping 41 of 43 to earn the win.

Talk to you tomorrow. In the meantime, follow me on X @Ian_Gooding and Threads.

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