Wild West: Skater Salary Valuations – Part One
Grant Campbell
2024-02-26
This week, we'll go through each team in the Western Conference to see which players provide the most fantasy value for their contract and which players provide the least. Part two will be next week.
I've come up with a dollar value for each forward and defender, using (1) my player game ratings, (2) the league average for those ratings, and (3) the average salary cap hit by position.
From this, we can determine a salary surplus or salary deficit depending on what each player makes.
League average salary cap hit for forwards 2023-24: $2.85 million
League average salary cap hit for defenders 2023-24: $2.81 million
In fantasy, it's fine to own expensive players, but you need them to perform to a level close to what their cost is. Sometimes, it's difficult to measure so I hope this might help out a few people.
If anyone is curious about a particular player, leave a comment and I'll give you their value this year and/or last.
Anaheim Ducks
Best-value forward – Mason McTavish ($894k salary cap hit)
McTavish has a value of $6.46 million/82. His projected salary cap surplus is $5.57 million.
McTavish has one more year on his entry-level contract.
Players like McTavish are super valuable in pools which use the salary cap.
Best-value defender – Pavel Mintyukov ($918k)
Mintyukov has a value of $3.7 million/82. His projected surplus is $2.81 million.
Mintyukov has two years remaining on his entry-level contract and is a must-own in most pools.
Worst-value forward – Jakob Silfverberg ($5.25 million)
Silfverberg has a value of $775k/82. His projected deficit is $4.475 million.
He is an impending UFA with a modified NTC that allows him to submit a 12-team no-trade list. His salary might be a hurdle for the Ducks to trade him this year.
Even though Silfverberg arguably has a higher value for his defensive game than my value, it's not something that can be measured or shows up in most fantasy pools.
Worst-value defender – Cam Fowler ($6.5 million)
Fowler has a value of $3.34 million/82. His projected deficit is $3.16 million.
Fowler is signed for two more seasons at $6.5 million AAV.
Fowler had a value of $3.7 million in 2022-23, so his return is diminishing slightly.
Arizona Coyotes
Best-value forward – Nick Bjugstad ($2.1 million)
Bjugstad has a value of $5.42 million/82 and a salary surplus of $3.32 million. He is signed for one more year with Arizona at $2.1 million.
Rookie Logan Cooley has a value of $2.65 million/82 in comparison.
Best-value defender – Sean Durzi ($1.7 million)
Durzi has a value of $6.5 million/82 and a surplus of $4.8 million.
Durzi is an RFA next year and should see a significant bump in salary.
Worst-value forward – Jason Zucker ($5.3 million)
Zucker has a value of $3.23 million/82 and a deficit of $2.07 million. Zucker is an impending UFA who the Coyotes should be able to trade at the deadline for a third or fourth-round pick.
Worst-value defender – Matt Dumba ($3.9 million)
Dumba has a value of $2.14 million/82 and a deficit of $1.76 million.
Like Zucker, Dumba is an impending UFA who should command a similar return in a trade.
Calgary Flames
Best-value forward – Blake Coleman ($4.9 million)
Coleman has a value of $7.08 million/82 and a surplus of $2.18 million. He has three more years remaining under contract at $4.9 million AAV. To put things in perspective, his value in 2022-23 was $3.12 million/82. He is probably at the height of his value.
Best-value defender – Rasmus Andersson ($4.55 million)
Andersson has a value of $7.28 million/82, with a surplus of $2.73 million. He has two more years remaining at $4.55 million AAV. What a bargain of a deal.
He just beat out Mackenzie Weegar, who has a cap hit of $6.25 million and a value of $8.86 million so far this year, for a surplus of $2.51 million.
Worst-value forward – Jonathan Huberdeau ($10.5 million)
Huberdeau has a value of $3.16 million/82 with a deficit of $7.34 million. In 2022-23 his value was $3.18 million but that was with a cap hit of $6.2 million.
Worst-value defender – Chris Tanev ($4.5 million)
Tanev has a value of $3.67 million/82 and a deficit of $830k. That shows most of the Flames' defense has been earning their money. Tanev is an impending UFA who could command a first or second-round pick in a trade.
Chicago Blackhawks
Best-value forward – Connor Bedard ($950k)
Bedard has a value of $7.4 million/82, with a surplus of $6.45 million. He's been as good as advertised and should only get better. He has two more years remaining on his entry-level contract.
Best-value defender – Alex Vlasic ($916k)
Vlasic has a value of $2.08 million/82, with a surplus of $1.12 million. He is an RFA going into next year and could see a raise to $1.75 – $2.25 million AAV if not more.
Worst-value forward – Tyler Johnson ($5.0 million)
Johnson has a value of $1.9 million/82 and a deficit of $3.1 million. He is an impending UFA with a limited NTC that allows him to submit a list of 20 teams he can be traded to. His value and contract might not warrant much of a return.
Worst-value defender – Seth Jones ($9.5 million)
Jones has a value of $5.64 million/82, with a deficit of $3.86 million. In 2022-23, his value was $6.32 million.
Colorado Avalanche
Best-value forward – Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6 million)
His value is $17.33 million/82 and he has a surplus of $4.73 million. He has seven years remaining at $12.6 million AAV. Last year he had a value of $16.4 million but only a cap hit of $6.3 million.
I've made previous arguments about MacKinnon saving the Avalanche so much money on his original contract at $6.3 million over seven years that they've banked enough value for his current contract. Even if he tanks in the last three years, they've made out well.
Best-value defender – Cale Makar ($9 million)
Makar has a value of $11.96 million/82, with a surplus of $2.96 million. Makar has three years remaining at $9 million AAV. Last year his value was at $12.66 million. There is little reason to think that Makar won't maintain this value for the three years remaining.
Worst-value forward – Ryan Johansen ($6 million)
Johansen has a value of $1.75 million/82 with a deficit of $6.25 million. He has one more year remaining at $8 million with Nashville retaining 50%. In 2022-23 his value was at $2.56 million.
Worst-value defender – Bowen Byram ($3.85 million)
Byram has a value of $3.16 million/82 with a small deficit of $690k. Byram has one more year at $3.85 million and will remain an RFA.
Samuel Girard has a value of $4.5 million/82 with a cap hit of $5 million, so is the only other Avalanche defender with a deficit this year to date.
Dallas Stars
Best-value forward – Matt Duchene ($3 million)
Duchene has a value of $7.89 million/82, with a surplus of $5.59 million. Duchene bet on himself with a one-year deal in Dallas and should benefit going forward.
Best-value defender – Thomas Harley ($863k)
Harley has a value of $6.81 million/82 with a surplus of $5.94 million. Harley is an RFA after the year and he's going to be an expensive re-signing for the Stars.
Worst-value forward – Jamie Benn ($9.5 million)
Benn has a value of $4.44 million/82, with a deficit of $5.06 million. In 2022-23, his value was $7.45 million. He has one more year at $9.5 million.
Worst-value defender – Esa Lindell ($5.85 million)
Lindell has a value of $4.29 million/82, with a deficit of $1.56 million. He is signed for one more year at $5.85 million. Could Lindell be moved to re-sign Harley?
Edmonton Oilers
Best-value forward – Zach Hyman ($5.5 million)
Hyman has a value of $10.4 million/82, with a surplus of $4.9 million. Hyman is signed for four more years at $5.5 million AAV.
Not to worry, Connor McDavid has a value of $15.26 million/82 on a salary cap hit of $12.5 million.
Every forward other than Janmark is in the surplus.
Best-value defender – Evan Bouchard ($3.9 million)
Bouchard has a value of $10.1 million/82 with a surplus of $6.2 million. Bouchard is signed for one more year at $3.9 million. After that, the Oilers will have to open up the vault.
Worst-value forward – Mattias Janmark ($1 million)
This speaks to how well the Oilers' forwards have played. Janmark has a value of $775k/82 and a deficit of $225k. He's a defensive forward so his deficit is inconsequential.
Worst-value defender – Darnell Nurse ($9.25 million)
Nurse has a value of $6.6 million/82, with a deficit of $2.65 million. In 2022-23, his value was $8.47 million/82. Nurse is signed for six more years at $9.25 million AAV. This might not age well.
Los Angeles Kings
Best-value forward – Quinton Byfield ($894k)
Byfield has a value of $5.42 million/82, with a surplus of $4.52 million.
Byfield is an RFA at the end of this year and should command quite a raise. He has arrived.
Best-value defender – Matt Roy ($3.15 million)
Roy has a value of $5.39 million/82, with a surplus of $2.24 million. Roy is an impending UFA who could be a highly coveted free agent come July 1st. I think the Kings can still afford to re-sign him.
Worst-value forward – Pierre-Luc Dubois ($8.5 million)
Dubois has a value of $3.35 million/82, with a deficit of $5.15 million. He is signed for seven more years at $8.5 million AAV but is only 25 years old. His value came in at $7.35 million in 2022-23 with Winnipeg.
Worst-value defender – Drew Doughty ($11 million)
Doughty has a value of $6.62 million/82, with a deficit of $4.38 million. In 2022-23 his value was $6.22 million/82.
Doughty has three years remaining at $11 million AAV.
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Next week, we will cover teams from Minnesota to Winnipeg.
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Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments, please leave them below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15