Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Dennis)

I’m in a 13 team, keep 8 (can be kept indefinitely), non-cap league that's points only for skaters and where goalie a win is worth two points, an OTL is worth one, and a shutout an extra point. Each team rosters 25 players, with starters being 14F, 4D, 2G, plus 5 bench. I've been tanking for a few seasons, and am in second to last and will likely finish there, giving me – as one of the bottom three teams – a lottery pick for the draft. My current projected keepers are Matthew Tkachuk, Jason Robertson, Clayton Keller, Miro Heiskanen, Cole Caufield, Wyatt Johnston, Jordan Kyrou, and Seth Jarvis.

We have a redraft coming. I’ll have the #2 pick and have an opportunity to drop a point producer and grab Connor Ingram, Alex Lyon, Samuel Ersson, Pyotr Kochetkov, or, if I don’t grab a goalie, perhaps Brock Faber, Alex Turcotte or Dmitri Voronkov. If I don’t select a goalie, there’s a good chance I could draft Ilya Sorokin or Andrei Vasilevskiy next year since the likely winner has them both and the person who is most likely to finish in last place, making them most likely to win the draft lottery, already has Connor Hellebuyck.

I feel like I should snag a goalie in the redraft, so I’m wondering who you would pick and protect as a keeper with the most upside. Or would you pick a non-goalie and grab Sorokin/Vas next season and pick up another top 25 goalie later in the draft? Either way, I’m pretty well positioned with decently high draft picks next season so I think I’m going to end the rebuild next season if my keepers can take another step forward. That being said do you think I'm ready to emerge from my rebuild? If not, then would you consider trading any of my proposed keepers?

Looking at your keeper core, I don't believe you're ready to emerge from your rebuild. You have some very good names there; however, with 100 players being kept, I see your keepers as being in the lower half of the league. But you have some good youth, so I'd try to focus on continuing to hone those eight such that in a season or two you might be among the upper echelon.

To that end, I believe Kochetkov is the right goalie for you. The blueprint for his success has already been laid out, with him presumably becoming the full time back up next season, as the Canes surely won't re-sign UFA to be Antti Raanta, and then the starter in 2025-26, as that offseason they should let Frederick Andersen walk as a UFA as well. Perhaps if indeed you were potentially able to be emerging from the rebuild Sorokin or Vas would be a good plan; however, they'd not be of use to you for the time being and you'd be letting Kochetkov slip through your fingers, which you don't want happening.

As for how to tinker with your team, I'd look to upgrade Kyrou. Yes, I think he's better than what we've seen this season, as he's been an IPP machine his entire career. But how good can he be if he continues to be capped at 18 minutes a night and just three minutes of PP time? My guess is he will get back to his old self to an extent such that when he does ignite you can move him and find a player with perhaps a bit less immediate production but better future promise. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Dave)

Given the lack of production from Brandon Montour, do you see him as being vulnerable to losing the PP1 gig in Florida?

This might come across as a shameless plug, but if you haven't done so already you should listen to the Keeping Karlsson podcast episode on which I appeared not too long ago, as Montour was discussed at some length. I'll share my thoughts here too, some of which were already addressed in the podcast.

It's easy to say now, but I was skeptical about Montour's emergence even as it was happening. Yes, it did coincide with his 400-game breakout threshold; however, this is a player who'd never averaged even a point per every other game in any previous season, such that to see him rise all the way to 73 seemed aberrational. To me he was also distinguishable from Josh Morrissey, who also broke out at his 400 game threshold, but was a year younger. And while Morrissey too has taken a big step back, he's still showing he's more the real deal than not.

Of concern is Montour's SOG rate being down. But with that being the case, his tiny SH% seems all the more unlucky. In truth, he probably should have at least a couple more goals in the normal course. And although he has only 9 PPPts in 41 games, that amounts to a 32.1% PP IPP, which likewise reeks of him being unlucky. Also, Montour's PP SOG rate is lagging well below last year, when he had 61 in 80 games. Once that rises, more points should come. Let's also keep in mind that Montour is set to become a UFA, meaning he should have added motivation to do well over the rest of the season.

Interestingly, the Florida PP didn't suffer much in Montour's absence, as it tallied eight PPGs in 14 games, versus 40 in the 43 games since Montour returned and was handed back the keys to PP1. But that data is a bit skewed, since it likely took a while for Montour to shake off the rust, as evidenced by the fact that since December 23rd, Florida has tallied 30 PPGs in just 26 games, which is fantastic.

I wouldn't be expecting Florida to mess what a formula that's working so well, which, despite Montour's poor stats, is one where he remains the undisputed PP1 QB. They are smart enough to see that his presence is being felt, even if not reflected on the score sheet.

Of course, we can't know that Ekblad or OEL wouldn't be capable of benefitting the Florida PP as much as Montour; but from where Florida sits, Montour earned that spot last season and will likely maintain it barring injury in view of how well things are going. This is especially the case since, of the other options, namely those you mentioned plus Gustav Forsling, both OEL and Forsling – like Montour – are set to be UFAs, while Ekblad is poised to be in the same spot in 2025. So whereas Florida might consider leaning away from Montour out of fear he'll be gone next season, they don't really have better options in terms of d-men under contract for the long haul, so their decision-making will be driven by the desire to win, which, given what happened last season and is occurring now, means Montour should keep that spot. Good question!

Question #3 (from DobberHockey Forums)

In a 10 team, keep 6, H2H – 1 win league counting G, A, SOG, PPP, FOW, H, B, Wins, GAA, Sv%, SHO as stats and with rosters of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 1Ut, 4D, 3G, plus 6Bench, 2-I/R+, 1NA, a GM owns the following players:

C: Hertl, Malkin, Thomas, Couturier LW: Draisaitl, Stutzle, B.Tkachuk, E.Kane RW: Marner, T.Thompson, Necas D: Bouchard, Karlsson, Romanov, Manson, Martinez G: Vasilevskiy , Skinner, Gustavsson (4 weekly minimum start's required) I/R: Theodore, Sergachev

They received an offer of Jacob Trouba for Thomas. Is that a good deal to make? They also had been considering a trade of Stutzle, Thomas, B.Tkachuk for M.Tkachuk, Kaprizov, Dahlin, but then the other GM decided to swap in Trouba for Dahlin. I liked the thought of adding Dahlin to my D, as well as obtaining a RW/LW for one of my C/LW giving me more positional flexibility. On first impulse, I figured the forwards balanced out; but upon closer look I realized that even though I was gaining a top tier Dman, increasing my goals and assists, I was giving up too many FOW, Hits and Blocks. Would you make either trade? If not, what about Trouba for Thomas?

Trouba is amazing, but he’s not quite as elite as he was two seasons ago, with his SOG in particular dropping and him settling back in the low – rather than high – 30s in terms of scoring rate. He is still a great own in your league, but not the monster stat stuffer he once was. Should you trade Thomas for Trouba? I can see the temptation, as Thomas is center only and doesn’t contribute so well across the board. But ask yourself this – why would someone who owns a player like Trouba be willing to trade him for Thomas?

The reasoning could be that GM has Trouba’s key categories already covered. But it might be that the GM astutely realizes Thomas has officially arrived and might only get better from here, as I mentioned in my most recent Goldipucks column. I’d be hesitant to deal Thomas in your shoes in general, but even more so inasmuch as you actually don’t have a lot of depth at center, and the other three you have are older. As for the trade, I’m never in favor of deals with more than two players are coming or going. It is too easy for them to go wrong, or to disguise who’s getting the better of the deal. That being said, I think the first deal was much better for you, as all three who would’ve come to you are likely to improve over the rest of the season. Dahlin has been consistent, but not had as many multipoint games. That should sort itself out, as should his miniscule 6.5% team shooting percentage. His IPPs are superb, so it’s just the issue of more multipoint games and more scoring in general. Kaprizov looked like the star of a few seasons ago before the all-star break and has continued to fare better, with ten multipoint games in his last 21, versus 6 in his previous 29 contests.

As for Matty Tkachuk, the time to buy low(er) is gone, as he’s been the hottest player in the NHL this calendar year. In terms of what you’d give up, those three are poised to be better long term holds. But Ottawa isn’t connecting the dots this season, and I am less certain by the day that they'll sort things out, especially since there wasn’t even a boost after the coaching change, and Jacques Martin is known as emphasizing defense. I realize that Trouba would offset a lot of what Brady Tkachuk gave you, but I think the second deal is not in your favor. Trouba is just too much of a step down.

It’s a shame the first deal didn’t go through. Yes, you'd have been weakened in some categories, but you were getting three studs, and could’ve always flipped one for help in a category. If you do still want to trade, I’m open to you moving Brady Tkachuk. I think he’s overhyped, with a perceived value far above his actual value, especially where you don't count PIM. So maybe try to move him to get Trouba and one of the other three, tossing in a second player – not Thomas or Stutzle – to balance things out. You could offer Sergachev, who, although now out for the season, might have lure as a keeper for this other team. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Jim)

I'm in a 12-team keeper league. I can protect ten regular players and up to six players who'd enter next season as rookies, as defined by the NHL. We have a draft of an additional 12 players before the regular season starts plus a rookie draft of up to two rookies, but only if you opted to keep either four or five rookies instead of six. Each team has to roster, on a weekly basis: 6C, 8W, 6D, 2G. There is also a reserve of 6 players, bringing each team to a total of 28 players. Scoring is one point each for a goal or assist, two points for a goalie win or three if it's a shutout.

I'm in the middle of a rebuild. With that in mind, and considering my options below, who are my ten regular keepers? For the rookies, please rank them from best to worst, as although I can keep all six if I want I wonder if it instead makes sense to drop one or two so I can participate in the rookie draft.

C – Matty Beniers, Elias Pettersson, Leo Carlsson, Jack Hughes, Trevor Zegras, Barrett Hayton

W – Cole Caufield, Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Guenther, Nils Hoglander, Phillip Kurashev, Casey Mittelstadt, Alex Newhook, Lucas Raymond

D – Thomas Harley, Filip Hronek, Kevin Korchinski, K'Andre Miller, Devon Toews, Zach Benson

G – Alexander Georgiev, Igor Shesterkin

Rookies – Yaroslav Askarov, Jesper Wallstedt, Olen Zellweger, Cutter Gauthier, Brandt Clarke, Gabe Perrault

Let's talk about the rookies first. I wouldn't be surprised if Clarke won't end up qualifying as a rookie, so already right there you'd have one spot open. If he does qualify though, he's a must keep, as he is the anointed one for an LA team that is built quite well for the present and future, plus whereas they do not like to lean on one forward line a lot more than the others, they still do heap ice time on their best D, as even at age 34 Drew Doughty is seeing nearly 26 minute of ice time per game.

I'm also intrigued by Zellweger. The exodus of Jamie Drysdale and the failure of Pavel Mintyukov to continue to excel like he did early in the season, gives Zellweger a clear runway to become "the guy" in the next several years. The two goalies also are must keeps, with both – on paper – being poised to be great. Yes, banking on goalies is very risky; however, given how few top goalie prospects truly exist, you must keep both.

That leaves Gauthier. He's crushing it in the NCAA this season and there should be a top-six spot for him when he's ready. I'd venture it would be difficult to do better at the rookie draft, so I'd hold onto him, meaning you would either keep all six of your rookies if Clarke doesn't exceed the games played total that would still qualify him as a rookie for 2024-25, or keep the remaining five if he does.

For your ten regular keepers, let's get the no brainers out of the way, those being Pettersson, Hughes, Caufield, Georgiev and Shesterkin. Yes, you keep both goalies. With these categories they're both top five and you'd be set in net, so to speak.

Ones that stick out as potential keeps too are Beniers, Zegras, DeBrincat, Carlsson, Guenther, Raymond, Toews, Harley, and Clarke, if he needs to be a regular keep. I think Hronek is trade bait, before folks realize his stats seem much better than reality due to 23 points in his first 23 games. I'd also trade Benson, who could be a star but is faced with many other capable forwards in Buffalo. Mittelstadt might have also done enough to be able to fetch something in return.

Of course, the ones on the maybe list who aren't kept also should be moved if possible too. And looking at the list, you have too many centers, so I think that means Beniers is not a keep. I don't like what I'm seeing from him, plus Seattle bestows ice time across its lines. I'd deal Beniers before his "new car smell" is gone.

I do keep Zegras, who I saw enough out of his first two seasons to make me a believer. Plus, if we look at centers who, by age 21 and dating back to 2000-01, had 23+ goals and 61+ points two or more times, we get Sidney Crosby, Anze Kopitar. Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Sean Monahan, John Tavares, Evgeni Malkin, and Jonathan Toews. All in all, that's very fine company in which to find oneself, and is more than enough to incent me to keep Zegras. And I'm also holding Carlsson, who fared quite well this season despite being throttled. Yes, that would give you three Anaheim guys, counting Zellweger, but I think the Ducks will be a very potent team offensively during the bulk of the remainder of this decade, with those three poised to benefit substantially.

I like the idea of trading Toews. He has come back to earth more and more, but his 71-point-pace season is fresh enough in everyone's memory that you should be able to get something for him. As for the Detroit wingers, I feel it can't be both, and of the two Raymond intrigues me more. DeBrincat shoots a lot, but I think we're seeing the best from him, whereas Raymond has another gear I think, and makes him the keep over DeBrincat who – you guessed it – should be traded.

That leaves two spots for Guenther and Harley, unless Clarke plays too many games. If it can be only two of the three, I think I'm not keeping Guenther. Harley has played so well even when pushed aside by a returning Miro Heiskanen. He seems like the real deal. Yes, his SH% is too high; but even factoring that into the equation he's a points magnet with very strong IPPs. As for Clarke, like I said the lure of him stepping in to be the next Drew Doughty is too much to pass up. Guenther would be a very tough drop through, in fact tough enough that I'd be okay with the possibility of keeping him over Raymond. If you wanted to keep both, you could consider trading one of your goalies, as either would likely fetch quite a nice return.

That puts the final list of regular keepers as Pettersson, Hughes, Caufield, Georgiev, Shesterkin, Zegras, Carlsson, and Harley, plus, if Clarke remains a rookie, Raymond and Guenther. If Clarke must be kept as a regular player though, he makes the cut and either Raymond or Guenther is not kept, unless you trade one of your goalies. If not, I probably hold onto Raymond, but I could be swayed to go for Guenther as the last keeper instead. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Eytan)

I’m in a points only cap league with some league-specific rules surrounding contracts. There is an auction in the offseason to bid on any free agents. If you win the auction, that player’s contract status is “OPT.” At the end of the season, you can choose to extend an OPT player at their current salary for another 1-3 years, after which they go back into the auction.

At any point if you cut a player during his contract, 50% of his salary counts against your cap for any remaining years on his contract. During the season, any player who is a free agent can be picked up through a blind auction. Someone must “announce” a claim on a player so that everyone has an opportunity to make a bid. All bids are submitted blindly and after the claim deadline, the winning team will acquire that player as an OPT at the bid amount.

We had a situation come up where someone at the bottom of the standings acquired John Tavares via trade. His $9.2M contract expires at the end of this season. Yesterday, the owner dropped Tavares, someone else announced a claim, and the same owner who dropped him won the blind bid at $6M. Although the owner takes a hit of $4.6M for the remainder of this season (essentially paying Tavares $10.6M for this year), he is not in contention and therefore this does not affect his ability to compete. But now that Tavares is on an OPT contract, he can be extended for another 3 years at $6M. There is a debate going on whether this is a form of cap circumvention. It is true that everyone had the opportunity to make a bid; however, many teams do not have cap room during the season like they would in the offseason so they are not able to pay for someone who is a premium player. I'd like your opinion on whether this should be allowed (owner to drop a player and pick him up at a lower salary).

This is a first for the mailbag in that I've never been asked to weigh in on a rules question, or, in this case, more precisely on what could be argued as a rules circumvention question. But I'm game!

My view on loopholes, or actions that violate the spirit of the law but not the letter of the law, is that if everyone had the opportunity to do the same thing, then normally it should be permitted. The issue in this case though is it has repercussions beyond this season. This is because if the person who landed Tavares indeed opts to extend him, then the effects will be felt for up to three additional seasons. That makes it something I think needs to be addressed, and here's how I'd do it.

The first thing that should have been done is poll the entire league to see where they stood on this loophole. And in my view, if even one team was against it, then it should be banned from now on. But you could change that to a majority of votes, or a certain percentage. But no matter what, everyone should weigh in and decide if it's within or against the rules, to make it crystal clear.

Assuming it is disfavored by vote, the person who dropped then grabbed Tavares should be given two options – (1) rescind the drop and keep him as if nothing had happened, or (2) only keep him for one more season, to minimize resulting damage. As it stands, you're asking me about this two months after the fact, such that I'd say it's too late to rescind the deal. So assuming the league votes against what occurred, the Tavares owner should be able to keep him for just one season at a $6M price.

I'd also use this opportunity to see if anyone can spot any other loopholes or potential problems. If lightning can strike once, it can strike twice. So do a league rules audit, and decide if anything else has to be looked at and/or voted upon. Good question!

Question #6 (from another Dennis)

I'm in a 12 team, keep 5 league that counts: G, A, PPP, P, SOG, Hits, Blocks, W, GAA, SV%, SHO. I have

the following four players I plan on keeping for next year: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Moritz Seider and Thatcher Demko. Currently my top choices for the fifth keeper spot are Travis Konecny and Mathew Barzal. But I've been approached to trade Barzal plus 5th and 6th round picks for Alex Tuch plus 3rd and 8th round picks. So you're aware, I traded away my 1st, 2nd and 4th picks. Would you accept that trade, and, if not, would you keep Barzal over Konecny? Or would you do something else?

Some might be seeing what Barzal is doing this season and think it might not be for real. But let's not forget that he had 85 points as a 19-year-old rookie, which has only been done by a mere five other rookie centers in NHL history: Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Sidney Crosby, Steve Yzerman, and Bryan Trottier, each of whom went on to have at least two 100+ point seasons.

Am I saying Barzal has a 100-point ceiling? Never say never; however, the key is you should wipe away the Barzal of recent seasons, since he was stifled by playing in defense-first systems. Finally, though he's been unleashed, and is thriving. What's more – he's doing this despite having a team 5×5 shooting percentage of just 7.7% and 31.0% secondary assist rate. Also, even when Barzal was not excelling, he had an overall IPP of 71.4% in every season, demonstrating what a points magnet he is. Simply put, he's a phenomenal player who is only now starting to emerge from the cocoon he'd been in all these years.

Although Konecny has done enough to show he's the real deal as well, his ceiling looks to be far lower. So I'm keeping Barzal over Konecny 100 times out of 100. And I'm not making the deal for Tuch, who continues to live up to his band-aid boy label and more and more is playing like his 2022-23 season was an aberration rather than a sign of a new normal.

All these things having been said, I'm worried about your team given its lack of draft picks. It's left you with two choices, the first being you keep your core and likely not compete next season, but go into the 2025-26 campaign hoping to have among the better keepers. Alternatively, you could trade Seider, who I do believe will become a 70+ point defenseman, but perhaps not nearly as quickly as expected, ala what happened to Chris Pronger and Victor Hedman. The reality is Seider is so good that Detroit needs him to excel in "real life" hockey, which is not translating to fantasy success. But Seider still has very high name value, such that you could move him to restock your draft cupboards. But with your core not being too old, you certainly could wait a season and hope that for 2025-26 Seider will be unleashed and able to play to his full potential. Good luck!

Question #7 (from Ted)

As a Josh Norris owner, I'm concerned by his output this season. I realize he's being paid a lot, giving him a long leash; but will he live up to the potential myself and others saw in him after 2021-22?

When I looked at Norris' metrics, I was surprised to see how similar they were to 2021-22, as his ice times at ES and on the PP are comparable, as is his SOG rate. But his SH% is down; and although it is similar to last season's rate, we know from his rookie campaign that he seemingly is a higher percentage shooter, plus this season he's taking nearly the same number of shots from 0-15 feet, 16-30 feet and 31+ feet, just as was the case in 2021-22. So I think the real Norris should be shooting closer to 17 or 18%, which right away would up his scoring rate to 57 points. Also, for 2021-22 he had just under one PP SOG per game, while this season he's closer to three in every four games.

It's not all encouraging news though, as ten of Norris' 13 assists have been secondary. And despite this, his IPP is no better than it was in 2021-22, at 60.9%. It is still high on the PP though, which is good. But him not being able to insert himself into the scoring picture enough at ES, and when he does, having it too often being in the form of secondary assists, is troublesome.

There's also the reality that Tim Stutzle used Norris' absence for what was essentially all of last season to firmly entrench himself as the top line center for the Senators. That is significant, since for 2023-24 he's averaging three minutes more ice time per game than Norris. But it is interesting to see that Stutzle has seen less ice time with each passing quarter, such that now the gap between him and Norris is shrinking. But I think that has more to do with the return of Shane Pinto, who gives the Sens a legit third line center. Or to put it another way, Stutzle's reduced workload is not benefitting Norris and is unlikely to do so.

One thing to consider is whether at some point the Sens move Norris to wing. He is a goal scorer, so it could happen. And this way they could put Pinto on the second line. Also, Norris' salary does seem high for someone who'd be "stuck" centering the second line and seeing 18 minutes of ice time a night.

Also, Norris still might be not back to his old self, as often it takes a full season for a player to get into the swing of things. That having been said, his production and SOG rates are not climbing, which cuts against that theory. But we won't know for sure until we see the 2024-25 version of Norris.

If I'm a Norris owner, I'm in hold and hope mode, unless I'm in a cap league, where he might be just too expensive to carry at $8M per season. For non-cap leagues, he might be someone to acquire if you can keep many players, in hopes that once 2024-25 rolls around he gets back to what we saw from him in the 2021-22 season. Good question!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.