Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

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Goals are at a premium in fantasy. They are harder to obtain than assists and are given an extra value boost in many formats. When it comes to prospects, players that can regularly put the puck in the net carry additional fantasy intrigue.

It can be hard to contextualize scoring numbers, however, given the complexities of accounting for age and specific leagues. Ten goals in the KHL might not sound like a lot, but if they're scored by an 18-year-old, that is actually quite an impressive achievement.

This week, we will focus on prospects in the AHL and KHL, the top two non-NHL leagues in the world, who are 19 and younger and keeping up with the best goal scorers in their respective leagues. The aim is to identify any surprises and standouts by comparing prospect production by goal rate with the top U20 historical campaigns in each league.

Tune in over the coming weeks for similar takes on the SHL, Liiga, NCAA, and CHL.

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Under-20 skaters by goals per game

Format:

Rank league-wide in total goals: Name (Team, age), # goals in # of games, goals per game

AHL – 2023-24

16th: Jiri Kulich (BUF, 19), 17 in 36, 0.47 goals per game

33rd: Shane Wright (SEA, 19), 18 in 44, 0.4

AHL – Notable Historical

7th: Kyle Palmieri (2010-11): 29 in 62, 0.47 goals per game

8th: JJ Peterka (2021-22): 28 in 70, 0.4

9th: Patrik Elias (1995-96): 27 in 74, 0.36

11th: Alexander Holtz (2021-22): 26 in 52, 0.5

13th: Mikko Rantanen (2015-16): 24 in 52, 0.46

14th: Jiri Kulich (2022-23): 24 in 62, 0.39 – 18 years old

22nd: Lukas Reichel (2021-22): 21 in 56, 0.375

31st: William Nylander (2015-16): 18 in 38, 0.47

Takeaways

In terms of all-time single-season goal-scoring rates for U20 AHL skaters, Kulich and Wright are both having historic seasons in 2023-24. Kulich already had a historic goal-scoring campaign last year as an 18-year-old, which is extra impressive given that all other skaters listed above were 19 years old. But he has built on his rookie accomplishments by upping his rate to match the top U20 performances in AHL history this year with nearly one goal every two games.

Wright has dealt with more than his fair share of turbulence in terms of external valuation as a prospect but is acquitting himself very, very nicely this year. This is a very unsophisticated analysis that does not take into account changes in league strength and scoring over time, but outscoring a legend like Patrik Elias at the same age in the same league should at least nudge an eyebrow or two. Wright is in line with some of the best U20 goal scorers to ever play in the AHL.

With an additional 14 assists, he is putting together an excellent rookie season for Coachella, especially given that he is labouring on a team with a bunch of AHL lifers slotted in ahead of him in the lineup. Aside from Ryker Evans and possibly Jacob Melanson and Logan Morrison, there is not a lot of NHL-bound talent on the Kraken's farm team at the moment. Given that they are fourth overall in the AHL standings, the full picture suggests a team philosophy in Coachella that is more intent on winning now than prioritizing prospect development—see my post last week for more on this point.

Checking in on their projections in the Hockey Prospecting model, Wright still looks like a surefire star, but the model is more skeptical of Kulich. Don't read too much into this, as I suspect that 6% star potential is mostly related to the lack of historical comparables and data from the Czech leagues. Kulich's 14 points in 49 games in that country's top men's league as a draft-eligible skater is basically unprecedented, so the model marks it down in performance quite heavily. Wright, by contrast, came up through the well-established OHL, so HP gives us a clearer picture of where he's headed.

It doesn't need to be said, but both of these prospects are blue-chip, must-own fantasy assets. Do what you need to do to acquire them because their stocks are headed straight up, and their NHL debuts are imminent.

KHL U20 Goal Scoring – 2023-24

12th: Matvei Michkov (PHI, 19), 19 in 48, 0.40 goals per game

143rd: Daniil But (ARI, 19), 10 in 55, 0.18

That is the entire list of relevant U20 goal-scorers in Russia's top men's league this year. If we expand the parameters slightly to include 20-year-old players, we could add one more promising name as an honourable mention:

33rd: Danila Yurov (MIN, 20), 21 in 62, 0.34

The scarcity of names here is a testament to how hard it is to not only make the KHL as an 18- or 19-year-old but also earn regular ice time and post notable production. KHL teams are notorious for giving young players very little ice time instead of keeping them down a level where they can play big minutes and shine in a prominent role. The list is players who have managed this feat historically is like a who's who of recent Russian hockey royalty.

KHL U20 Goal Scoring – Historical

1st: Kirill Kaprizov (2016-17), 20 in 49, 0.41

2nd: Matvei Michkov (2023-24), 19 in 48, 0.40

3rd: Evgeni Kuznetzov (2011-12), 19 in 49, 0.39

4th: Eeli Tolvanen (2017-18), 19 in 49, 0.39 – 18 years old

5th: Evgeni Kuznetzov (2010-11), 17 in 44, 0.39 – 18 years old

6th: Pavel Buchnevich (2014-15), 13 in 48, 0.27

7th: Vladimir Tarasenko (2009-10), 13 in 42, 0.31 – 18 years old

10th: Kirill Kaprizov (2015-2016), 11 in 53, 0.21 – 18 years old

11th: Evgeni Dadonov (2008-09), 11 in 40, 0.28

12th: Daniil But (2023-24), 10 in 55, 0.18 – 18 years old

Takeaways

More than enough has been said about both Michkov and Yurov by this point. Michkov is one of the most impressive Russian prospects in history, period. His scoring rates are right up there with Kaprizov at the same age, and that's about all you need to know. When he comes over, he should be a franchise-changing talent for Philadelphia. Him falling to the Flyers at 7th overall will be one of the most notable storylines out of the 2023 draft when we look back on it with more perspective. Huge win for Briere & Co.

Yurov is not at Michkov's level, obviously, but while it seemed like the HP model was possibly reading too far into the insane MHL production in his draft year, placing his star potential right at the top of the 2022 draft next to Simon Nemec, Wright, Logan Cooley, Matthew Savoie, and Lane Hutson, that ranking sure looks justified now.

Even with the incredible development shown by prospects like Denton Mateychuk (CBJ), Kevin Korchinski (CHI), and Rutger McGroarty (WPG) since 2022, Yurov still sits 11th in the draft class in terms of star potential with a solid rating of 46%. Quite a deep draft class that year.

Daniil But has been a bit more of a blind spot for me. Big guy with lots of skill has been my vague impression. Digging in further, that impression still checks out. His point-per-game MHL season in his draft year was solid but nothing to write home about. The MHL is a fairly wide-open, high-scoring league, and big totals there don't always translate well to the pros.

I think of Alexander Kisakov (BUF) as a useful tale of caution on that point. He put up 73 points in only 61 MHL games as a draft-eligible a few years ago, following that up with 56 in 51 the next year. Buffalo took a swing on him in the second round back in 2021—a fairly high pick—and while he might still work out, he has only 17 points in his first 75 AHL games and certainly isn't trending to become the next Nikita Kucherov. Gaudy MHL totals definitely do not an NHLer make.

But had size (he's 6-5) and point-per-game MHL production on his side last year at the draft, but his Elite Prospects rating of 4.5 on his skating (5 being NHL average) was a fairly big red flag for me given the pace of the game at the highest level these days. The rest of his skill-set, however, was graded as well above average. That includes puckhandling, skating, passing, hockey sense, and physicality—the last of which was rated slightly above average, even though he is much more of an elegant, finesse type of player than a power forward. If he can use his size more actively to his advantage, that will add an additional dimension to his game.

But's transition to the KHL this year has definitely boosted his stocks in my opinion. Although sitting 143rd in goal scoring league-wide does not look that impressive, this is where historical context can add valuable information: his ten goals so far this year places him fifth all-time in KHL goal scoring for U19 players, and that is behind a list of impressive Russian players. It was surprising to see him go 12th overall last June to Arizona, but maybe the Coyotes brass was onto something.

If But can continue developing his skating to the point where it is at least NHL average, he has a very intriguing size-skill combination that makes him a unique fantasy asset. Expect him to play another season or two in the KHL before moving over to North America. His arrival should coincide with the Coyotes finally taking a meaningful step forward as Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller, and company begin to gel and the team finally gets a real NHL-quality arena (maybe?).

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