Wild West: Skater Salary Valuations – Part Two
Grant Campbell
2024-03-04
This week is part two of our Western Conference salary valuations, covering teams from Minnesota through to Winnipeg. We'll see which player on each roster has the most fantasy value per their contract and which player has the least. Check out part one here!
I've come up with a dollar value for each forward and defender, using (1) my player game ratings, (2) the league average for those ratings, and (3) the average salary cap hit by position.
From this, we can determine a salary surplus or salary deficit depending on what each player makes.
League average salary cap hit for forwards 2023-24: $2.85 million
League average salary cap hit for defenders 2023-24: $2.81 million
If anyone is curious about a particular player, leave a comment and I'll give you their value this year and/or last.
Minnesota Wild
Best-value forward – Joel Eriksson Ek ($5.25M salary cap hit)
Eriksson Ek has an expected salary value per 82 games of $11.7 million and a surplus of $6.45 million. He is signed for five more years at $5.25 million AAV. What a bargain, to date. He's emerged as a young Anze Kopitar.
Best-value defender – Brock Faber ($925k)
Faber has played to the equivalence of a $5.6 million value per 82. His surplus is $4.675 million, and he has one more year on his entry-level deal. He should be a finalist for the Calder Trophy.
Worst-value forward – Frederick Gaudreau ($2.1M)
Gaudreau has struggled at a salary value of $1.1 million per 82. He has a deficit of $1 million. He has four years remaining at $2.1 million AAV, which isn't looking that great right now.
Worst-value defender– Alex Goligoski ($2 million)
Goligoski has played just 30 games, but even prorated for 82 games, his salary value comes in at $1.2 million, giving his value a deficit of $800k.
If Jared Spurgeon had played more than 16 games, he would be listed here as his deficit was over $3.8 million based on 82 games on his cap hit of $7.575 million.
Nashville Predators
Best-value forward – Ryan O'Reilly ($4.5 million)
O'Reilly has rebounded well, with 22 goals and 51 points in 62 games played for Nashville this year. His value is $7.8 million/82, with a surplus of $3.3 million. He is signed for three more years at $4.5 million AAV. In 2022-23, his situation was the opposite, as his value was $3.22 million/82 and his cap hit was $6.5 million.
Other forwards with a surplus of over $2 million are Tommy Novak, Filip Forsberg, Gustav Nyquist, Kiefer Sherwood, Colton Sissons, Cole Smith and Michael McCarron.
Best-value defender – Roman Josi ($9.059 million)
Josi is still bringing it at 33 years of age. His value is $10.9 million/82, with a surplus of $1.84 million. He has four years remaining at $9.059 million AAV. It'll be difficult for him to provide full value for the duration of that deal.
Worst-value forward – Cody Glass ($2.5 million)
Glass is the only forward on the Predators' roster who has played more than 30 games and has a deficit value. Even taking into account his recent hat-trick, his value is $1.4 million/82, which gives him a deficit of $1.1 million.
Glass has one more year at $2.5 million before he becomes an RFA. The rest of this season and next is crucial for the Predators to decide if they even qualify him or if they try to trade him for some value.
Worst-value defender – Ryan McDonagh ($6.75 million)
McDonagh still has a value of $3.75 million/82, which is marginally better than the $3.1 million/82 value he had in 2022-23. His deficit is $3 million, and he still has two more years remaining at $6.75 million AAV.
Not far ahead of McDonagh is Tyson Barrie, who has a value of $2.2 million on a cap hit of $4.5 million, giving him a deficit of $2.3 million. Barrie will be a UFA this off-season.
San Jose Sharks
Best-value forward – Fabian Zetterlund ($1.45 million)
I have Zetterlund at a value of $4.1 million/82. That seems a little high to my eye test, but my formula seems to like him. He has a surplus of $2.65 million and is signed for another year at $1.45 million.
Other forwards on the Sharks with a surplus of more than $1.6 million are Mikael Granlund and William Eklund.
Best-value defender – Mario Ferraro ($3.25 million)
Ferraro has been the best defender for the Sharks this season, but he's not going to put up many points. His value is $5 million/82 with a surplus of $1.75 million. He is signed for two more years at $3.25 million AAV.
All of Nikita Okhotiuk, Kyle Burroughs, Calen Addison and Matt Benning earned at least their cap hit.
Worst-value forward – Kevin Labanc ($4.725 million)
I had both Kevin Labanc and Mike Hoffman with a value of $775k/82, which is the league minimum. Hoffman earned $4.5 million to Labanc's $4.725 million, so Labanc has the bigger deficit of $3.95 million. Both are pending UFAs and should struggle to find a contract for next season at anything above the league minimum.
Worst-value defender – Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($7 million)
Vlasic went on a bit of a goal-scoring tear and had five goals through a nine-game stretch in January. Unfortunately, they were his only goals of the season and he had just two assists in the other 26 games he dressed for. He still has a value of $2.4 million if he dresses for 82 games, but he will be lucky to play 50 this year. He has two more years at $7 million AAV.
Seattle Kraken
Best-value forward – Eeli Tolvanen ($1.45M)
There are not many instances where a waiver pickup will emerge on his new team to have a value of $5.5 million/82 but that is exactly what has happened with Tolvanen in Seattle. His surplus is $4.05 million, and he is set to become an RFA. I could see him getting north of $4 million AAV.
Matty Beniers has had a disappointing sophomore campaign but his value on his $897k cap hit is $3.5 million/82 this year, compared to $4.85 million/82 as a rookie.
Best-value defender – Will Borgen ($2.7M)
I have just two Kraken defenders in the salary surplus so far, Will Borgen with a value of $3.5 million/82 and Adam Larsson with a value of $4.6 million. Borgen has a surplus of $800k while Larsson comes in at $600k. Both are signed for one more year before becoming UFAs.
Worst-value forward – Andre Burakovsky ($5.5 million)
It's tough to pin this on Burakovsky who has played just 27 games for the Kraken this year, but even prorated to 82 games, his value comes in at $1 million – with a deficit of $4.5 million.
Brandon Tanev ($3.5 million) and Jaden Schwartz ($5.5 million) come next with a deficit of just better than $2 million.
Worst-value defender – Brian Dumoulin ($3.15 million)
I'm sure Dumoulin has some intangibles that are difficult to measure, but he comes in with a value of $880k/82, with a deficit of $2.27 million. He has one more year remaining at $3.15 million.
St. Louis Blues
Best-value forward – Jake Neighbours ($836K)
While Robert Thomas ($8.125 million) and Pavel Buchnevich ($5.8 million) show well compared to their cap hits, Jake Neighbours has been the best value with a salary value of $3.5 million/82 and a surplus of $2.64 million. He has one more year on his entry-level deal.
Best-value defender – Scott Perunovich ($775K)
If Perunovich could just stay healthy, his value would be more obvious. He has managed just 35 games this year (career-high) and has a value of $1 million/82, which is the only surplus on the Blue’s back end.
Perunovich is an RFA after the season but expect him to come in under a million AAV.
Worst-value forward – Kevin Hayes ($7.14 million)
Hayes has struggled in his first campaign with the Blues. He has just 10 goals and 12 assists in 60 games and comes in with a value of $2.4 million/82. That gives him a pretty large deficit of $4.74 million. Fortunately, St. Louis is only on the hook for $3.57 million AAV this year and the next two years.
Worst-value defender – Marco Scandella ($3.275 million)
I'm not sure how Scandella has managed to dress for 55 games this year. His value comes in at $775k/82 and his deficit is $2.5 million. Scandella is an impending UFA.
Torey Krug ($6.5 million) and Nick Leddy ($4 million) are a little better but still in the deficit.
Vancouver Canucks
Best-value forward – J.T. Miller ($8 million)
When the Canucks re-signed Miller to seven years at $8 million AAV, a lot of people (including myself) thought it wouldn't age well.
One year in, Miller has a $12.9 million/82 value with a surplus of $4.9 million.
This surplus should offset some deficit years towards the end of the contract and hopefully it evens out over the duration. Six more years to go after this one.
Because Elias Pettersson re-signed for eight years at $11.6 million AAV, I thought I should mention his value. I have it at $11.1 million/82 this year and $11.7 million/82 in 2022-23. He's going to struggle to get into the surplus for the next eight years.
Best-value defender – Filip Hronek ($4.4M)
This one surprised me a little as I thought Quinn Hughes ($7.85 million) would be the obvious choice here and realistically I think he is. There are elements to his game that I can't capture in a number.
Having said that, Hronek has a value of $6.5 million/82, with a surplus of $2.1 million. He's an impending RFA and the Canucks might struggle to come in under $6.5 million AAV, but it's in the ballpark.
As for Hughes, his value is $9.3 million/82 which gives him a surplus of $1.45 million. I think his true value is north of $11 million, but that becomes way more subjective.
Worst-value forward – Ilya Mikheyev ($4.75 million)
Mikheyev could still be recuperating from his knee injury of a year ago, but it doesn't take away his disappointing play from this season. His value has dipped to $2.47 million/82, for a deficit of $2.28 million. He is signed for two more years at $4.75 million AAV.
Worst-value defender – Tyler Myers ($6 million)
Myers being here is no surprise for most people. He's been considered a replacement-level defender for a few years in Vancouver, but he's provided value of $3.95 million/82 this year and $1.75 million/82 in 2022-23. He's been much better this year, but he's not a $6 million defender.
He is an impending UFA.
Vegas Golden Knights
Best-value forward – Jonathan Marchessault ($5 million)
Marchessault is set to become an unrestricted free agent and it will cost his new team (or Vegas) going forward. His value is $8.4 million/82 and his surplus is $3.4 million.
He might not get more than three or four years, but he could command north of $7 million AAV.
Best-value defender – Brayden McNabb ($2.85 million)
I have McNabb with a value of $4.9 million/82 and a surplus of $2.05 million. He has one more year at $2.85 million and is a bargain at that.
Shea Theodore ($5.2 million) is heads and shoulders the best value defender in Vegas but has played just 26 games and didn't qualify. His value, if prorated for 82 games, would be $8.7 million AAV. Theodore has one more year remaining at $5.2 million.
Worst-value forward – Mark Stone ($9.5 million)
Even when healthy, Stone has taken a small step back. I have his value at $7 million/82 and it appears that he will be stuck on 53 points in 56 games for a bit. He has three more campaigns at $9.5 million AAV. LTIR is nice and everything, but a healthy, producing player earning his money is better.
Worst-value defender – Alex Pietrangelo ($8.8 million)
Much like Stone, Pietrangelo has taken a step back at 34. Don't get me wrong, he is still a very good defenseman, but his value sits at $7.2 million/82, which gives him a deficit of $1.6 million. He has three more years at $8.8 million AAV. I'd expect his value to gradually decline over that time.
Winnipeg Jets
Best-value forward– Sean Monahan ($1.985M)
I wasn't sure about including Monahan with the Jets as he signed this with Montreal, but I figured that he deserved mention as he has had such a great comeback season. His value is $5.9 million/82 based on this season and his surplus is $3.915 million.
I don't think he will get $5.9 million AAV in free agency, but $4.5 to 5 million, I could see.
Best-value defender – Josh Morrissey ($6.25 million)
Morrissey has a $8.5 million/82 value, with a surplus of $2.25 million. Last year he was at $10 million/82. He has four more years at $6.25 million AAV and should provide great value on that deal.
Worst-value forward – Alex Iafallo ($4 million)
Iafallo had a great start in Winnipeg then kind of hit the wall. His value is $2.2 million, with a deficit of $1.8 million. He's the only forward on the Jets with a deficit of more than a few hundred thousand.
He is signed for 2024-25 at $4 million.
Worst-value defender – Nate Schmidt ($5.95 million)
Schmidt has had trouble living up to his contract for a few years now. His value this season is $1.6 million/82, with a deficit of $4.35 million. In 2022-23, he had a very similar value of $1.58 million/82.
He has one year remaining at $5.95 million.
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