Lining Up: Opportunity for Roslovic; Calgary’s Top Line; Veleno’s Improved Role
Peter Ryell
2024-03-05
Welcome back to another edition of Lining Up! This week we will take a look at some of the hottest line combinations over the last month, using Frozen Tools to examine the Top EV Line and see if there are any note worthy players to target moving forward. With fantasy playoffs around the corner, every edge matters if you are fighting for a spot and anyone who is not a star on your team should be viewed as expendable.
Let's dive in.
Boone Jenner – Johnny Gaudreau – Jack Roslovic
The top line over the last month at even strength is exactly who everyone expected, the combination of Boone Jenner, Johnny Gaudreau and Jack Roslovic? Fantasy owners likely gave up on Johnny Gaudreau a long time ago as he is only on pace for 59 points this season which would be the lowest output of his career, and that is in spite of posting 16 points in his last 17 games and seeing nearly identical usage to last year in terms of ice time and power play deployment. In addition to the usage, Gaudreau has some similar advanced metrics when comparing his two seasons in Columbus:
This season – 10% 5 on 5 S%, 52.5% OZ Start%, 72.2% PPIPP, 47.7% CF%
Last season – 9% 5 on 5 S%, 49.3% OZ Start%, 74.2% PPIPP, 47.2% CF%.
The big change this season is his IPP which is down this year to 62.9% from 75.5% and his shots which are down nearly one full shot per game. Furthermore, Gaudreau is not converting on those shots, posting a career-low 7.5 shooting percentage. So, he is not scoring and he is not contributing as often to the scoring when he is on the ice. There is still the possibility that the shooting percentage will increase but it will need to be buoyed by an increased shot rate. Given that we are now into March, the runway left for him to buck the trend is shrinking quickly.
Regardless, 16 points in 17 games is not nothing and it seems the arrival of Jack Roslovic has spurred Gaudreau into action late in the season. Roslovic has ten points in his last ten games and is taking over three and a half shots per game on top of that. In those ten games he is also averaging 18:35 of TOI while playing with Gaudreau and Jenner. This is a great position for him to be in, even if it may be an indication that he is being showcased as a potential trade candidate. For his part, Jenner has 11 points in 11 games dating back to the first game out of the All-Star break and is continuing his solid peripheral production with nearly three shots and over two hits per game this season.
Assuming Roslovic isn't moved, all three players are good targets over the next two weeks as Columbus has three games still to come this week and four games next week, including matches against Montreal, Ottawa and San Jose. At 3% owned in Yahoo leagues for Roslovic, 53% for Gaudreau, and 54% for Jenner, this is the kind of late season move that can push your roster over the hump.
Mikael Backlund – Blake Coleman – Andrew Mangiapane
Over the last month, the Calgary line of Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman and Andrew Mangiapane have combined for ten goals at even strength and are outperforming other line combinations with more notable superstars. The trio have spent over 40% of their time together over the course of the season, being one of the more consistent line combinations in Calgary and have gone through spurts of production. Lately they are on another streak and Mikael Backlund is leading the charge with five points in his last six games including a two-point effort against Pittsburgh on Saturday night. All of his advanced metrics are within normal ranges (7.7 S%, 8.1 5on5 SH%, 1.6 PTS/60, 983 PDO) but he may have some room to grow with a low secondary assist percentage of 15.8.
Blake Coleman and Andrew Mangiapane are joining in on the fun with four points and five points respectively in that same six-game span. Coleman continues to provide solid category coverage with over two shots, 1.5 hits, and one PIM per game. Mangiapane meanwhile has seen a bit of a boost in ice time, up to just over 17 minutes in the third quarter, nearly a full two minutes more than what he was receiving in the second quarter. Similar to Columbus, Calgary has a decent schedule coming up over the next two weeks with six games, three in each week. As the player currently converting the most, Backlund is a prime target and is only 29% rostered in Yahoo leagues, 34% in Fantrax. He would make for a decent streaming option in deep leagues.
Following a couple of deep dives, here are some noteworthy situations to keep an eye on.
New Jersey
With the removal of Lindy Ruff from his duties as head coach, early line combinations are being released in the first practice this morning under Travis Green. Here is how things look as reported by Amanda Stein on Twitter/X:
Meier – Hischier – Toffoli
Hughes – Haula – Bratt
Tierny – Lazar – Mercer
MacDermid – Nosek – Holtz
Siegenthaler – Marino
Bahl – Smith
Hughes – Miller
All that is with DeSimone and Nemec as a fourth pairing and potential scratches. Potentially one of the more notable combinations is Timo Meier remaining on the top line with Nico Hischier. Recently those two have been joined by Jesper Bratt and that has pushed Meier to a nice little run of production with six points in his last five games and 19 shots in that span, including a season high nine shots against Anaheim on Friday night. What remains to be seen is the power play deployment, Meier has been averaging a 38.4% share of the power play deployment and has not been able to crack the top unit. If that changes and he continues to hold down a spot with Hischier, he may be in for a bit of a rebound down the final stretch of the fantasy season.
Another noteworthy line combination is in the absence of Dylan Larkin for the next couple of weeks, Joe Veleno has slotted into his spot on the top line with Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane. He has averaged 14:32 of TOI this season with minimal power play deployment and is subsequently pacing for 36 points this season. It would be a career-high pace for him in his young career but certainly lining up alongside the team's top players will be a great short-term boost. Over the next two weeks while Larkin is out, Detroit has a dense schedule, playing seven times starting tomorrow night. If this deployment can hold, Veleno will be a nice streaming addition in deeper leagues.