Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Although of course everyone is laser focused when the puck drops on game one, I'd argue this is the second most important time of the season, as teams are either gearing up for a playoff run or looking ahead to 2024-25. Whichever applies to you, finding out the true value of players is paramount. With that in mind, this week I do a deep dive on Evan Bouchard, Nazem Kadri, and Dylan Larkin. Pause here to lay odds on which of the three is too hot, which is too cold, and whose production has been "just right." Then read on to see if you're dialed in enough to have gotten all three correct. As for the three players being covered here, all their stats are current through March 2nd.

Evan Bouchard (60 GP, 15 G, 44 A, 157 SOG, 22:50 TOI, 26 PPPts, 3:19 PP, 77.8% PP%)

Since being drafted tenth overall in 2018, the assumption with Bouchard had been not if but when he'd pay dividends. Still, Edmonton was careful, as Bouchard had played just 21 NHL games by age 21. After that though, he was in the NHL for good, albeit not positioned for major success, as in his first full season he barely sniffed the PP and scored just over a point per every other game. In 2022-23, his big break came when Tyson Barrie was shipped out of town, leading to Bouchard tallying 16 points in his final 18 regular season games, then 17 points (15 on the PP alone!) in just 12 playoff contests. For 2023-24 thus far, he's been hovering near or above the point per game mark. Is that sustainable; or could he perhaps even do better? I'd say neither, as he appears to be overachieving at least somewhat.

No question Bouchard is benefitted by being the source for blueline offense in Edmonton, which has the league's third best power play, and on which he takes the ice 77.6% of the time, a percentage topped only by Shea Theodore. He has the fifth most PP SOG of any d-man, and among the five rearguards with five or more PPGs, Bouchards's PP SH% of 15.4% is topped only by Drew Doughty's 21.4%. Bouchard's SH% overall, sits at 10.0%, which ranks him 25th among rearguards, but with only Doughty, Adam Fox and Thomas Harley having higher SH% among d-men who average a point per every other game. Bouchard probably tallied more goals than he likely should have, plus, is less likely to continue tally goals at the same rate, making it a double whammy of sorts.

Also, Bouchard's PP minutes have dropped with each quarter, from 3:44 in Q1, to 3:28 in Q2, to 2:38 in Q3. Part of that is due to the tendencies of refs to call more penalties early in the season; however, Edmonton averages the second lowest PP time per game at 4:16 per contest, meaning that although Bouchard is out there for nearly all those minutes, it's not as great as it sounds. I suppose an argument can be made that it can only improve, which is true; however, it might be an ongoing problem, plus his 77.5% usage rate on the PP can only go down. Moreover, Bouchard's PP IPP is 60.5%, which is not likely sustainable since three of the four forwards on Edmonton's PP1 have PP IPPs that are down versus last season, with the other (Zach Hyman) holding steady. As 2023-24 continues to unfold, they will likely get more PPPts, and Bouchard fewer.

It's not just Bouchard's PP time that's shrinking, but his SOG rate as well, as in Q3 he's barely above two per game. If he stays below three SOG per game, that is consequential, as dating back to 1990-91, of the 104 instances of d-men scoring at a 70+ point pace in 40+ games, more than half had 3+ SOG per game, with over 75% above Bouchard's current rate. And if we look at just the 38 who did finish at or above a point per game pace, 26 averaged 3+ SOG per game and only six had a lower rate than where Bouchard stands now. Although he's not in uncharted territory in terms of his scoring rate given his SOG rate, he's likely scoring more than he should, especially since his SOG rate is trending down.

Some of Bouchard's metrics, while not troublesome, also don't suggest he should be this well better. Specifically, his secondary assist rate of 56.1% is not high for a d-man, but not low either, as is the case with his 9.7% team shooting percentage. One possible additional area of concern though is while Bouchard has already played 81+ games twice, in both cases he averaged under 20 minutes of TOI per game, and this season he's 22:47 per game. Yes, he's only 24, but as the season drags on fatigue could be a factor.

Make no mistake, Bouchard is talented and in a dream spot to produce for fantasy. But the data does suggest his scoring rate thus far is somewhat inflated, unless somehow Edmonton begins to draw a lot more penalties and/or Bouchard fires more pucks on net. But if either of those things does indeed occur, it'll likely be in a future season, not 2023-24. Therefore, in terms of this season, Bouchard has been TOO HOT and gets a rating of 8.0.

Nazem Kadri (61 GP, 22 G, 32 A, 196 SOG, 18:18 TOI, 12 PPPts, 3:10 PP, 61.5% PP%)

The former seventh overall pick turned heads when, at age 22 and in the shortened 2012-23 season, he scored at a 75 point pace. After that though, came many campaigns where he was a multi-cat darling but never quite rose to the upper echelon when it came to point totals. All that changed though in 2021-22 when he scored at a jaw-dropping 100 point pace. Many were sold that he'd arrived, but others were skeptical at the timing, what with him being on the cusp of unrestricted free agency. Sure enough, in 2022-23 his production cratered to only a 56-point rate, although in fairness that was on a Flames team where nearly everyone disappointed. But lo and behold he's faring quite well this season; so is this a true rebound, or just a blip in the radar? I think it's indeed a rebirth that should result in him finishing 2023-24 at or near the point per game mark.

How is Kadri producing better than last season when his SOG rate is actually a tad lower? For starters, he's seeing a minute more TOI per game, and is once again receiving 3:00+ of PP time per contest. Also, although Kadri was always a high volume shooter, his career SH% coming into 2022-23 was 11.2%, which is what he's shooting for 2023-24, versus only 9.0% last season. Also, somehow this season his SH% on the PP is lower than his overall SH%,and might help explain his low PPPts output.

Speaking of the PP, other than in 2021-22 Kadri has not been a PP monster, never averaging one PPT per every four games. But for 2023-24, he's at one per six games, which is low even for him. But his PPIPP, at 55.6%, while not strong, is roughly comparable to his rate for 2021-22. Calgary's PP as a whole though is not doing him any favors, converting at the third lowest rate in the NHL. But that has only one way to go, and that's up. Plus, half of his ten PPPts have come in his last 16 games, versus the previous five in more than double (33) the contests; so it is reasonable to expect him to up his PP scoring rate over the rest of 2023-24.

Beyond these factors, there's the reality that Kadri has been a point per game player since the start of Q2. And he did so while shooting 13.8%, which is not inflated. Kadri's rate of secondary assists is 43.3%, which is neither high nor low. His team shooting percentage at 5×5 is 10.2%, which I'd likewise characterize right where one would expect. Yes, his overall IPP is on pace to be above 70% for only the second time in seven seasons; however, it was at 65.6% during his poor 2022-23, so this is a small uptick, which is reassuring in that it can be sustained plus is not the sole reason why his numbers are so much better.

The other thing to consider is Kadri has put up these great numbers of late despite his most frequent linemates at 5×5 being Connor Zary and Martin Prospisil. That might explain why his IPP is higher; but clearly he is excelling in his own right, as those two are not factors in his improvement. He's just playing better, no matter how you slice it.

Here's something else to consider. Dating back to 2000-01, the only other center who, like Kadri, averaged 3.0+ SOG in 55+ games in his ages 30, 31, and 32 seasons, was some guy by the name of Patrice Bergeron, who we all know stayed productive until he retired at age 37. So that is a nice comparable if you're a Kadri owner.

In sum, even if we rightfully look at 2021-22 for Kadri as a perfect storm of playing on a great team, with great linemates, while also looking to pad his wallet, this is a player who has gas left in the tank, based on the Bergeron comparable, plus the fact he's doing as well as he is despite playing with no-names and not pilling up PPPts. Kadri has reawakened this season and I think it will lead to him continuing to post point per game numbers or better over the remainder of the campaign. As such, his 2023-24 has been TOO COLD, and he gets assigned a rating of 2.25.

Dylan Larkin (55 GP, 26 G, 28 A, 166 SOG, 19:52 TOI, 21 PPPts, 3:19 PP, 58.5% PP%)

It's hard to believe it's been nearly a decade since the Wings selected Larkin 15th overall. He shined in a season of college hockey and was in the NHL to stay at 19, and making a nice splash with 45 points as a rookie. And Larkin followed the fourth season breakout script by posting 73 points in 76 games. After that though there were two tough campaigns on some pretty lousy Red Wings teams. But over the past two seasons, and so far for 2023-24, he's been right at the point per game mark. Is that his ceiling, or might he still have more room to improve? Most likely this is about what we should expect from Larkin going forward.

A lot has changed in terms of Detroit as a team since Larkin scored at an 80 point pace in 2021-22. But with him….not so much. His overall ice time has remained constant and his PP time has barely varied. That latter point is key, as Larkin has never taken the ice for more than 64.6% (last season) of his team's man advantage minutes. And although Larkin's 21 PPPts barely puts him in the top 30 among forwards, every single forward ahead of him has taken the ice for a higher percentage of his team's man advantage minutes. In fact, the next highest PPPt total for anyone with a lower percentage this season is 18. How is Larkin able to do this well? A 77.8% PP IPP, which is a good bit higher than his prior best, which came last season. And Detroit's PP as a whole is improved, sitting comfortably in the top ten in conversion rate. The issue is Larkin isn't leaned on like most other top tier players, since Detroit now has enough talent to field two quite good PP units. So Larkin might see his PP rate dip slightly, as his minutes are unlikely to increase while his IPP might drop in the normal course.

Larkin's SH% stands at 16.0%, which is a good bit elevated versus his career rate, and this despite taking almost the same rate of shots per game. How can that be? There is a partial explanation in that he is taking as many shots from 0-15 feet as from 16-30; so although he isn't being more selective in terms of his number of shots, he is taking them from closer range, and as such should be scoring on a higher percentage of them. Also, his PP SOG rate and SH% is virtually unchanged, so nothing is awry there. Thus, his elevated SH% isn't a big source of concern, and neither is – in turn, his 12.1% team shooting percentage at 5×5, as he and his linemates are accurate shooters and reliable sources of offense.

If there was trepidation about his SH% and/or his PP IPP, the reality is if either or both were to drop, his secondary assist percentage, which is a measly 25.0%, would rise enough to offset any lost production. Also, Larkin's IPP in general is 62.8%, which would mark a four season low. Not only could that number rise, but even if it doesn't Detroit is scoring more than enough goals for it to be a net wash.

What about player comparables? Probably the key statistic to examine is other centers who, like Larkin, shoot a lot without piling on the points. If Larkin finishes the season at or below a point per game, it would mark the sixth consecutive campaign where he did so despite a SOG rate of 2.9+ per game, dating back to his age 21 season. What other centers had comparable results? Eric Staal also did so in six seasons within that age range, and those who did so five times include Logan Couture, Brad Richards, and Jeff Carter. Of them, the only one who really went on to do much better was Richards in two seasons, as the rest never did best the point per game mark. So Larkin might be at his realistic ceiling already.

Another interesting development is although the Wings are a much-improved team as compared to two seasons ago, Larkin's OZ% has been dropping, from 51.1% in 2021-22 to 48.2% last season. And for 2023-24, it's trending even lower at 45.9%. I suppose one could argue that it has only one way to go, which is up; however, it also casts doubt on Larkin's production level thus far, as roughly point per game output despite an OZ% that low is not what is normally expected.

If you feel like what you just read pointed you in all sorts of directions, that's because it did, with the net takeaway being Larkin is what he is, and that's a roughly point per game player. He stepped up when his team wasn't so great, and now when they're better he's become a more complete player, but one without padded scoring. There really isn't anything else to say other than Larkin's 2023-24 has been JUST RIGHT, and he gets a 5.5 rating, meaning expect more of the same.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag has room for plenty more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.