Ramblings: Tarasenko, Byram, Mittelstadt All Traded; Bordeleau Called Up; Ice Time Jumps for Greenway, Zadina, McMichael, and More – March 7

Michael Clifford

2024-03-07

Wednesday almost felt like Trade Deadline day as a number of the big names were moved to the new locales for a playoff (or Lottery) push. There was a significant one-for-one swap between Colorado and Buffalo, the New York Rangers ended up landing Alex Wennberg, Vladimir Tarasenko is off to Florida, and a bunch more.

For Alex's takes on the trades, read this on Bowen Byram/Casey Mittelstadt swap, click here for Wennberg to the Rangers, follow this link for Adam Henrique to Edmonton, and see what he had to say about Tarasenko to Florida.

The next two days might not be as jam-packed, but we are waiting news on Noah Hanifin, Jake Guentzel, Pavel Buchnevich, Jakob Chychrun, Frank Vatrano, and many others. Yours truly will be here for the next two days to cover the trades as they happen, and we will be covering Deadline day itself by the minute. Be sure to keep refreshing Dobber Hockey when the trades come down because there are a lot of significant ones yet to come, even with all the movement already.

I will have more thoughts on the trades listed above in tomorrow's Ramblings.

Quickly on Tarasenko, there isn't a lot to add to what Alex had to say but I view it a bit differently. None of Florida's bottom-6 forwards are averaging more than 15:30 per game in calendar 2024, so there won't be a TOI bump, and he won't move ahead of Sam Reinhart or Matthew Tkachuk on the depth chart without an injury. Maybe they try him on the left side (or on the right with Tkachuk on the left), but Tarasenko is a defensive liability and having him in such a prominent role on a Cup contender would be a bit of cause for concern. He goes to a much better team, but it's not necessarily a better fantasy situation for him. And, as pointed out in the replies to one of Dobber's tweets, Ottawa had more games in hand, so Tarasenko loses those for fantasy managers.

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Thomas Bordeleau called up by San Jose. The 22-year-old prospect has 69 points in 102 games in the AHL across three seasons. We will see what San Jose's lineup looks like post-Deadline because there may not be a lot left on the roster.

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Martin Pospisil was suspended three games for his brutal hit on Seattle's Vince Dunn. That keeps him out of Calgary's lineup for the rest of this road trip, but head-to-head fantasy managers will have him for the entire week next week as they have three games in four days starting tonight.

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Toronto beat the Mittelstadt-less Sabres on Wednesday night 2-1 in overtime. With a top line of Tuch-Thompson-Skinner, and second line of Peterka-Cozens-Greenway, it seems as if Zach Benson is the odd-man out right now (but more on him later).

William Nylander scored his 34th goal of the season in regulation and Auston Matthews scored his 54th of the season in overtime to give Toronto the two points. Matthews had four shots and a hit, Nylander had three shots, a block, and a hit, and Morgan Rielly had one assist, two shots, two blocks, and a hit in the win.

Victor Olofsson scored the lone goal for the Sabres.

Ilya Samsonov stopped 24 of 25 shots in the win while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed two tallies on 27 shots.

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It has been a bit over a month since the NHL returned from its All-Star break and while it doesn't give us a large sample, it's enough to work with for ice time purposes. The Trade Deadline is tomorrow and players that have seen improved usage could see that tick up (or down) even more across the next six weeks. Let's highlight some key skaters who have seen improved usage of late with the help of our Frozen Tools Report Generator and Natural Stat Trick. We will look at the Christmas break to the All-Star break and compare it to the games since then, looking only at players with at least eight appearances in each sample.

Alex Kerfoot

The player with the largest drop in percentage of the team's power play time is Kerfoot, who was getting heavy power play usage but has seen that role completely disappear over the last month. Clayton Keller's return to the lineup pushes Kerfoot even further down the pecking order, and he was not on either PP unit in the team's recent 5-2 loss to Chicago. He will be moved all around the lineup at even strength, so there will be sparse fantasy value, but coming by power play points will be tough.

Zach Benson

One of Benson's teammates has seen his usage go the other way, and we'll get to that, but the lineup getting healthier has been to Benson's power play expense; he's literally earned less than 1% of Buffalo's PPTOI since the All-Star break. He doesn't have a power play point yet this season, so it's not as if fantasy managers were relying on that PPTOI. The upside is that if Kyle Okposo is traded at the deadline, Benson seems to be the only player on the roster with a realistic chance of taking his minutes.

Nikolaj Ehlers

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What is old is new again, time is a flat circle, etc. Ehlers is actually fourth among the team's forwards in even strength ice time per game since the break, and the most of anyone not on the top line. However, his PP role has disappeared with the addition of Sean Monahan, and Alex Iafallo replaced Gabriel Vilardi on Tuesday night with the latter injured. Ehlers has zero power play goals, and four power play assists this season, and if everyone is healthy, it's hard to see that number rising much more.

Egor Zamula

Other than Kevin Korchinski and Alec Martinez, who saw their PP roles disappear because other options got healthy, no defenceman lost a bigger share of their team's PP time than Zamula (-20%). He was on Philadelphia's top unit in their shootout loss to St. Louis earlier this week, so maybe that ticks back up (especially with Jamie Drysdale injured), and that's important for his value as 7/17 of his points have been with the man advantage. The Flyers PP is not good, but whatever fantasy value Zamula has relies on it, and he at least has that chance back for now.

Anthony Duclair, Kyle Okposo, and Noah Hanifin

This section we call the Free Agent Special. There were seven players that got at least a 25% bump in PPTOI percentage, and three of them are in the heading. So, three of the seven players saw huge jumps in PPTOI a month before the Trade Deadline; it's hard to believe that's a coincidence. When (if) they are moved, it'll be good news for players like Benson, Filip Zadina, and Oliver Kylington.

Jordan Greenway

Along with Okposo, one of the biggest risers was Jordan Greenway. Since the All-Star break, he has been earning 18:25 per game overall, a huge jump from the 16:30 before the break. Part of that has been a 33.1% jump in PPTOI share, and he has been on the Tage Thompson unit of late. He had four goals in his final 15 games with Buffalo last season and looks to be in line for a late-season surge once again. He is rostered in most banger leagues, but he may even have points-only value depending on how deep the individual league is.

Connor McMichael

For all the struggles Washington's power play has had, they are fourth in the league by goals/60 with the man advantage since the All-Star break. At the top of the list for most goals/60 scored with a player on the ice is McMichael at 15.6/60 (Max Pacioretty is next at 12.7/60). In fact, of the seven regular PP forwards the team has had this season (at least 60 minutes), McMichael tops the list by on-ice goals/60 now that Anthony Mantha has been traded. He is still not a top PP regular and even with Mantha traded (maybe Pacioretty, too), and TJ Oshie returning, he may not get the top role consistently this season. That he's getting more time at all, though, is a good sign.

Filip Zadina

Earlier we mentioned Zadina as a potential replacement on San Jose's power play once (if) Duclair is traded. It should also be noted that Zadina has the third-highest jump in even strength ice time share since the All-Star Game, trailing only Valtteri Puustinen and Quinton Byfield. Over the last five games alone, Zadina leads Sharks forwards in 5-on-5 ice time. He has five goals, seven points, and 2.3 shots per game over his last 10 outings. Relying on Sharks players is dicey at best, but he's starting to be put in a position to succeed.

Andre Burakovsky

Also on the list of "tough to rely on" is any Seattle Kraken forward, but Burakovsky has seen the sixth-largest EVTOI% jump of any forward on our list. We will have to see what the Kraken do at the Trade Deadline because both Alex Wennberg and Jordan Eberle are candidates to be moved, with the former more likely than the latter. Burakovsky scored a game-winning power play goal on Tuesday but skated under 14 total minutes. The improved role is nice to see, but that's relative to his own team, and that 'improved' role has meant an average of just 15:40 in total TOI across is last 10 games and under 14:30 in three of his last five. Buyer beware.

Michael Bunting

The Carolina winger has seen a 4% jump in EVTOI per game and that, along with a consistent top PP role, has led to 16:36 in total TOI per game over Bunting's last 10 games. He had 29 shots and six hits in that time, but just four points. His two goals on 29 shots indicate some positive regression to come, though if the team adds a scoring winger (or two) at the Deadline, it could really hurt Bunting's value over the final quarter of the season.

Jonathan Kovacevic

David Savard is a defenceman whose name has been in trade rumours, though we'll see if they actually materialize. Either way, Kovacevic is seventh among defenceman in even-strength ice time jump by percentage, though that means still just 13:27 per game since the All-Star break. He has skated under 14 total minutes in half his games since the All-Star break, and surpassed 18 minutes just once. He likely gets more ice time if Savard is traded, and he's averaged 1.1 hits and 1.6 blocks per 20 minutes of ice time this season.

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