The first of the San Jose Trade Deadline trades happened late Thursday night as winger Anthony Duclair was sent to the Tampa Bay Lightning, along with a seventh-round pick in 2025, in exchange for prospect defenseman Jack Thompson and a third-round pick in 2024. Thompson is a third-round pick from 2020 himself with 32 points in 46 games down in the AHL this season. His Dobber Prospects profile can be read here.

Let's break down what this means.

What Tampa Bay Gets

This is a fascinating trade for this reason: Tampa Bay has often been using both Brandon Hagel and Steven Stamkos on the left side, which is where Duclair naturally plays. However, there have been times in the last month-ish where Stamkos was effectively down on the third line, leaving open a top-line left wing spot next to Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. The Lightning have really struggled to put a third line together – something that was a big part of their Stanley Cup runs in recent history – and it's a wonder if this trade doesn't mean Duclair to the top line with Point/Kucherov, Hagel on the second line with Anthony Cirelli (where he's often been this season), and Stamkos back on the third line with Nick Paul. I think the most logical starting point for Duclair is third line with Stamkos staying in the top-6, but that's not a guarantee, and Tampa Bay has not been shy to move their players around the lineup.

The top forwards' ice time is safe; Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, Cirelli, and Hagel are going to keep the roles they've had and if not in the same lineup spot every night, then certainly around the same ice time levels. It is players like Michael Eyssimont, Tanner Jeannot, and Conor Sheary who's potential third-line usage is in doubt. The team seems to like Michael Chaffee on the second-line right wing which could cut the available top-9 roles to one spot (RW3), but again, the team has been moving players around a lot.

Outside the top-5 guys in the paragraph above, the only Tampa Bay forward earning more than 14 minutes a night in even-strength ice time per game is Nick Paul. He is a faceoff-taking centre so Duclair won't surpass him, either. Duclair was at 14:08 in EVTOI per game for the Sharks, and it seems likely he drops to the 11- to 12-minute range with the Lightning. It is a case where he's going to a better team, but it's not necessarily a better fantasy situation for him.

The final hurdle is Tampa Bay's schedule. From this coming Monday (March 11^th) through April 14^th (the final Sunday before the end of the season), Tampa Bay is tied for the third-fewest games played with 15, being 1 of 7 teams that will play 15-or-fewer games. Just three of those games will be on off-day as well. The next two fantasy weeks alone sees just six games with none on light days. A lesser role and a subpar schedule for Duclair may make it tough for him to have fantasy value in a lot of leagues, especially where he's not a banger guy that will rack up a lot of hits.

This means a lot of minutes for William Eklund over the balance of the season for San Jose (as he had been earning) with Thomas Bordeleau in line for meaningful ice time, especially if the Sharks move on from more forwards. Bordeleau was on the team's top PP unit on Thursday night and skated over 15 minutes, so that's a good start.

Who This Helps

Thomas Bordeleau

William Eklund

Nick Paul

Who This Hurts

Michael Eyssimont

Tanner Jeannot