The biggest name on the trade board had been rumoured to be heading to Carolina over the last few days but the trade of Jake Guentzel from Pittsburgh to Carolina happened overnight Thursday/Friday. Guentzel is currently injured but was skating in Pittsburgh's practice on Thursday in a contact jersey, so it may not be long until he's good to go.

Either way, here is the full breakdown of the trade:

Full trade:
Pittsburgh trades Jake Guentzel (25% retained) and Ty Smith to Carolina in exchange for Michael Bunting, Ville Koivunen, Vasili Ponomarev, Cruz Lucius, Carolina's 1st RD pick in 2024 (Conditional) and Carolina's 5th RD pick in 2024 (Conditional).

— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) March 8, 2024

That is a lot of moving parts so let's break down the easier side first.

What Carolina Gets

Over the last three seasons, Guentzel has 76 even strength goals, tied for eighth in the NHL and more than names like Matthew Tkachuk, Kirill Kaprizov, and William Nylander. Of course, a lot of that time was spent next to Sidney Crosby and as good as Sebastian Aho is, he is not at Crosby's playmaking level.

At the same time, saying Guentzel's production is just a function of Crosby's prowess misses the mark. Over the last three seasons, Guentzel's rate of even strength goals/60 without Crosby as his centre is 0.9. It isn't a high-end mark, but it's around the 75^th percentile, or a borderline top-line rate. In Carolina, only Aho, Martin Necas, and Stefan Noesen have scored at a higher rate in 2023-24, and Noesen has done that by shooting nearly 17%. Maybe Guentzel isn't a 40-goal scorer in Carolina, but he should still be a very good producer.

The bigger question is where he fits in the lineup. Michael Bunting going the other way leaves a second-line left wing spot open with Necas and Jack Drury, so Guentzel could just slide in there. Putting him with Aho would make more sense, but that would push Andrei Svechnikov down the roster. Either way, one of Guentzel or Svechnikov is about to see a line mate decline and that's a problem for either of them. Guentzel can still be productive with Drury as his centre but going from over 20 minutes a night with most of that time next to Crosby to 18 minutes a night (and possibly less) next to Drury would be a clear drop in quality. Carolina likely tries a few different combinations, so Guentzel fantasy owners shouldn't get discouraged if he's not next to Aho for his first game in a Hurricanes uniform.

In the good news column, Carolina has eight games in the next two weeks, starting this coming Monday. Even with a downgrade in line mates/usage, Guentzel gets an extra game than he would in Pittsburgh to soften the blow for fantasy managers.

Assuming Guentzel takes Bunting's power play role, it would lock players like Necas and Teuvo Teravainen from the top PP unit, barring injury.

Back in Pittsburgh, we've seen Lars Eller and Reilly Smith take some top-line minutes next to Crosby in recent games. There hasn't been a combination they've stuck to, but with Bryan Rust returning soon (if he's not traded himself), there is a very cushy top-line left wing role up for grabs. It could be a boost for someone like Smith or the incoming Michael Bunting, but it's unlikely any single trio stays together for an extended period given how much the Penguins have shuffled their lines recently.  

Ty Smith being shipped to Carolina is interesting. He hasn't been able to translate lower-level success to the NHL yet, but he's still just 23 years old (turning 24 later this month). Carolina has four defencemen that will be unrestricted free agents this summer, and three more next summer. Not everyone will move on, but the next 16 months will see a lot of upheaval on the Carolina blue line, and Smith will have a chance to crack the roster in October. There is no fantasy relevance right now, though.

What Pittsburgh Gets

To start with, the condition on the first is that it becomes a second if Carolina doesn't get to the Stanley Cup Final, and Pittsburgh only gets the fifth if Carolina wins it all.

Teams are reluctant to move top prospects for Trade Deadline rentals, which explains why Pittsburgh received a slew of lesser prospects. The Dobber Prospect profiles for Ville Koivunen, Vasili Ponomaryov, and Cruz Lucius can be viewed by clicking their names.

To the point of getting lesser prospects, the Dobber Prospects team's organizational rankings last summer had none of the three traded prospects among the team's top-5. Even if Pyotr Kochetkov and Jack Drury are removed from the list, there are still none in the top-5. The Athletic's Scott Wheeler constructed organizational prospect rankings last month and none of those three names were among Carolina's top-5 prospects. Last summer, Steven Ellis of Daily Faceoff had zero of those names in his top-5, either.

With that said, there is a clear path to the NHL for all three players. They are all forwards, and considering how poor Pittsburgh's forward depth has been for a couple years now, any sign of upside will be rewarded with a spot in the NHL next season. Only Ponomaryov has extensive pro hockey experience in North America (Koivunen played 12 games in the AHL last season), so he likely has a leg up, but all three will have an opportunity to crack the NHL roster. Lucius just finished his second year of college hockey, so he's a longer shot, but look for Koivunen and Ponomaryov to try and make their mark in 2024-25. Koivunen is currently tied for fifth in Liiga scoring with 55 points and is the only player with at least 50 points that is also under 23 years old. Koivunen seems to have the best skillset that can translate quickly, but things change fast with prospects.

In all, it's a good move for those prospects. There have been few Carolina prospects able to break through to the NHL recently because of the team's excellent depth, with Jack Drury being a rare example (Seth Jarvis had a brief AHL stint in the Bubble season but otherwise went straight to the NHL). Carolina has at least nine forward roster spots occupied for at least one more season, if not 2-3, so this gives all the prospects heading to Pittsburgh an easier path to an NHL role.

It will be interesting to see how Bunting fits in Pittsburgh. He has two more years on his current contract, so he's not leaving in the offseason. Bunting does a lot of things well but doesn't excel in any particular area. That isn't a bad thing, either, as having a wide range of skills should help him fit in with Crosby (or Evgeni Malkin). The winger thrives off the forecheck (per AllThreeZones), which is something Crosby does as well, so there could be a good fit here. Years back, Chris Kunitz was a great winger in a similar role for Crosby and though Rickard Rakell has struggled in 2023-24, he had 28 goals and 60 points last season skating most often with Crosby at 5-on-5.

The bigger issue for Bunting is the power play. Pittsburgh's has been bad for most of this season and 16/36 of Bunting's points in Carolina this season came on the power play. Bunting might get a boost at even strength but a decline in power play production would offset those gains. That is a problem in our fantasy game because even if he breaks even production-wise because of the boost at even strength, the loss in power play points hurts his overall fantasy value. For now, it seems like a push until we see how he slots into the team's lineup.

We have to wait and see where Bunting lines up, but this likely puts an end to the Top Line Lars Eller experiment, and one of Smith and Drew O'Connor are destined for the third line. O'Connor is out with a concussion, so it seems as if Smith, Bunting, Rakell, and Valtteri Puustinen are locked into the top winger roles for now.

The fantasy week starting March 11^th has Pittsburgh with four games and they are in Ottawa, and at home to San Jose, the New York Rangers, and Detroit. It is a pretty good schedule in the near-term, so Bunting may be just fine for fantasy right now.

Who This Helps

Reilly Smith

Rickard Rakell

Jack Drury

Ville Koivunen

Who This Hurts

Jake Guentzel

Jordan Martinook

Sidney Crosby

Martin Necas