With Cole Perfetti's declining usage in Winnipeg of late, leading to a recent healthy scratch, combined with Gabriel Vilardi's lingering injury issues, Winnipeg going out to get a scoring winger made a lot of sense as the Trade Deadline neared. They acquired Sean Monahan from Montreal over a month ago to help at centre, and now have Monahan's former Calgary teammate Tyler Toffoli in the mix as they acquired him from New Jersey:

Going back to New Jersey is a third-round pick in 2024 and a second-round pick in 2025 with New Jersey retaining half the cap hit. Here's what it means.

What Winnipeg Gets

Toffoli has been one of the most reliable scorers in the league for several years now as he's posted at least 20 goals in five straight seasons – including the Bubble year – and has averaged 32 goals every 82 games over the last five seasons. His 82-game pace this season in New Jersey was for 35 goals, so that scoring is still there.

Winnipeg is a team that does like to play fast off the rush and that's where Toffoli thrives. He is a shooter who likes to play fast and that can mesh well with Mark Scheifele. There is a playmaking element to Toffoli's game but it's not a strength, and he won't be asked to do that in Winnipeg, either.

As with many trade deadline acquisitions, it's a question of where he fits into the lineup. Coach Rick Bowness seems to really like Vilardi, and when he's been healthy, he has often been on the top line and the top power play unit. Scheifele and Kyle Connor are top line/top PP mainstays, Monahan has found a home with them on the man advantage, so it's between Toffoli and Vilardi for the last power play spot. Toffoli will likely take Vilardi's role right now as the latter is injured, but the injury doesn't seem serious and what happens when he returns is uncertain. Winnipeg had nine power play goals in 11 games after the All-Star break with all their top guys healthy, so Toffoli taking over that spot seems unlikely, but it's an option. It also gives Nikolaj Ehlers even more competition for top PP minutes even if Vilardi is out of the lineup.

If Vilardi assumes his top line/top PP role in a week's time, Toffoli is about to see a big downgrade in fantasy value. He could have a very good second line role with Monahan and Ehlers, but the team uses the top line heavily and Adam Lowry's third line is given a lot of shutdown minutes. Toffoli had seen 27.7% of New Jersey's even strength time over the last month, per Frozen Tools, but no one in Winnipeg outside of Connor and Scheifele was over 27%. They did have a bunch of guys in the 25-27% range, so Toffoli's role probably doesn't decline that much (maybe a minute per game at even strength), but 30% of his goals over the last two seasons have come on the power play. If he loses that role when Vilardi returns, Toffoli could quickly drop from 70%+ PP usage to sub-30%. That would be a big hit to his fantasy value.

If Toffoli can carry over his even strength scoring, that's great, but he may not score more than a couple of power play goals the rest of the way. We need to see what the lineup looks like when Vilardi is healthy, and Toffoli will be fine in the immediate term, but it may only take a week for the new Winnipeg winger's fantasy value to take a big hit.

On the bright side, for that immediate term, Winnipeg has four games next week and they're all on light days (Monday, Wednesday, Friday, Sunday). Their first three games are at home against Washington, Nashville, and Anaheim, and then they're on the road in Columbus. Toffoli could be an excellent fantasy option for the next 7-10 days, but beyond that, his outlook is very murky.

When Vilardi is healthy, regardless of whether he's on the top line or not, this crushes the value for both Perfetti and Alex Iafallo. The top three lines should look something like this:

Connor – Scheifele – Vilardi

Ehlers – Monahan – Toffoli

Appleton – Lowry – Niederreiter

That means Perfetti and Iafallo are destined for the fourth line when the roster is full, and one of them is likely off to the press box. There are plenty of reasons to be bullish on Perfetti next season and in the years to come, but his fantasy value is basically shot for 2023-24.

Back in New Jersey, this opens a spot for Dawson Mercer to get back into the top-6 consistently, whether on a line with Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier. With Hughes playing the wing recently, and the team moving Ondrej Palat to the right side on Thursday night, maybe that doesn't happen right away, but there is one less option to block Mercer. Timo Meier took Toffoli's top PP role on Thursday, so he gets an upgrade, too.

In theory, this should also mean room for Alex Holtz to at least move up to the third line but that didn't happen on Thursday. New Jersey seems to think the best thing for Holtz's development is to play with Kurtis MacDermid for 10 minutes a night, but hopefully things will change over the next six weeks.

Who This Helps

Timo Meier

Dawson Mercer

Sean Monahan

Alex Holtz

Who This Hurts

Cole Perfetti

Alex Iafallo

Tyler Toffoli

Nico Hischier