Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

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In case you missed it, check out Part One of this series here.

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Goals are always at a premium in fantasy. They are harder to obtain than assists and are given an extra value boost in many formats. So when it comes to prospects, players that can regularly put the puck in the net carry additional fantasy intrigue.

It can be hard to contextualize scoring numbers, however, given the complexities of accounting for age and specific leagues. Ten goals in the SHL might not sound like a lot, but if they're scored by an 18-year-old defenceman, that is actually quite an impressive achievement.

This week, we will focus on prospects in the SHL and Liiga who are 19 or younger and keeping up with the best goal scorers in their respective leagues. The aim is to identify any surprises and standouts by comparing prospect production by goal rate with the top U20 historical campaigns in each league.

Tune in next week for similar takes on prospects in the NCAA and CHL.

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Under-20 skaters by goals per game

Format:

Rank league-wide in total goals: Name (Team, age), # goals in # of games, goals per game

SHL – 2023-24

5th: Jonathan Lekkerimaki (VAN, age 19), 19 goals in 45 games, 0.42 goals per game

50th: Liam Ohgren (MIN, 19), 11 in 25, 0.44

63rd: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (DET, 18), 10 in 38, 0.26 – 18 years old

SHL – Notable Historical U20 Single Season

1st: Kent Nilsson (1975-76): 28 in 36, 0.78 goals per game

2nd: Elias Pettersson (2017-18): 24 in 44, 0.55

3rd: Peter Forsberg (1992-93): 23 in 39, 0.59

4th: Emil Bemstrom (2018-19): 23 in 47, 0.49

5th: Patric Hornqvist (2006-07): 23 in 49, 0.47

6th: Tomas Sandstrom (1982-83): 23 in 36, 0.64 – 18 years old

7th: Markus Naslund (1991-92): 22 in 39, 0.56 – 18 years old

8th: Markus Naslund (1992-93): 22 in 39, 0.56

9th: Daniel Sedin (1998-99): 21 in 50, 0.42  – 18 years old

10th: Tomas Sandstrom (1983-84): 20 in 34, 0.59

11th: Jonathan Lekkerimaki (2023-24): 19 in 45, 0.42

Takeaways

While Lekkerimaki trails the rest of the U20 SHL all-time goal-scoring leaders in terms of goals per game, it is very impressive that his 2023-24 performance currently slots in at 11th all-time. Narrowing our criteria to the last 25 years, the Canucks prospect sits fourth behind only Pettersson, Bemstrom, and Hornqvist.

Although his eventual upside remains an open question, those three players ahead of him represent three potential outcomes. While he will not become a superstar like Pettersson, he likely won't flame out of the NHL by age 25 like Bemstrom either. Even though he is a very different style of player than the rugged Hornqvist, his upside is likely similar to the Finn but with a bit more pop. Hörnqvist exceeded 20 goals eight times in his prime, peaking with 30 with Nashville in 2008-09. At this moment in time, Lekkerimaki certainly looks to have a shot at bagging 30 goals in the NHL—potentially more than once.

As the dip and recovery in his PNHLe chart shows, he has decisively re-established himself as a legitimate NHL prospect and future top-six talent this year after floundering following the draft, where Vancouver took him 15th overall.

If you bought low on him, congratulations! But unless you're a Vancouver fan, you might want to consider now selling high on him over the off-season. He has received a ton of positive press this year and his value is quite high right now, potentially higher than it's ever been because he's more established now than he was at the draft after proving he can score against men.

But there remain valid concerns about whether or not his game will translate to the NHL. Some have criticized him as a perimeter scorer who does not drive to the middle of the ice as often as he should. He is also very trigger-happy to the point that he risks becoming a one-dimensional threat who will shoot no matter what. He has a very similar goals-to-assists ratio as Bemström did at the same age and plays a similar game predicated on north-south speed and a wicked shot.

Comparing the two players via the Hockey Prospecting model, Bemstrom actually had a higher chance of success at the same age:

As I mentioned a couple weeks ago when I looked at Bemström after his trade to Pittsburgh, his massive jump in his D+2 season looked great on paper but arrived a couple seasons too late to place him on an NHL star trajectory. Ditto for Lekkerimaki. As hyped as he has been this year, and as well as he stacks up against U20 SHL scorers historically, he still looks like a sell-high to me.

Send a fellow manager (ideally a Vancouver fan) a couple highlights and pitch them an offer for a younger prospect with potentially higher upside.

Lekkerimaki looked like a right-handed Markus Naslund here pic.twitter.com/i3Kkdq65kv

— Rob Williams (@RobTheHockeyGuy) January 2, 2024

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Over now to Lekkerimaki's youth-league running mate, Liam Ohgren, who has been on an absolute tear lately in the SHL after missing the first few months to injury. Because of the missed time, he obviously isn't making the all-time totals list. But he actually has outstripped Lekkerimaki recently in goals per game. If only we could have seen what he was capable of over an entire season!

Ohgren's upside has always been—and continues to be—a riddle to me. A couple years ago, he rewrote the J20 Nationell record books by scoring 58 points (33 goals) in only 30 games. That was the most prolific season of all time in that league. Yet despite that historic production, he was taken four spots later than Lekkerimaki at 19th overall and was viewed as more of a well-rounded, 200-foot player who might top out as a middle-six scorer. Heading into the draft, he had a very balanced, above-average toolkit that lacked a true high-end skill like Lekkerimaki's elite shot.

My hunch is that JT Miller and Timo Meier are overly optimistic comparables for Ohgren as a future fantasy asset. He strikes me as a Zach Hyman type (pre-2022-23) who will make his team better every time he steps onto the ice but won't necessarily ever be a huge scorer. Intangibles galore, compatibility with a wide range of players, and an ability to adjust his game to a team's particular system are what Ohgren brings to the table.

Think 55-60 points in his prime without the big hit totals of Miller and Meier. But while his upside may be lower than Lekkerimaki's, I think his odds of carving out a solid NHL career are actually higher. His middle-six floor has always seemed secure and still does a couple years past the draft; his upside, though, remains a riddle for now.

As such, I would classify him as a Buy Low. Because he missed so much time this year to injury and did not blow the doors down in his D+1, I would guess that many fantasy managers have a bit of a blind spot on him at the moment. If you don't have to give up a lot to acquire him, he should be a solid fantasy asset that will slowly gain value over time. Just don't expect star-level production from him once he makes the NHL.

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Finally, the third but perhaps most impressive name on this short list, Axel Sandin-Pellikka pretty much stands alone in SHL history as a U20 defender scoring goals at this rate. And he is doing it at 18 years old! Nils Lundkvist scored 11 goals in 45 games at age 19 back in 2020-21, and a couple no-name guys scored 10 and 11 goals respectively in the 80s and 90s, but that is the entire list.

With only seven assists, his point totals do not jump off the page. But again, context is king: ASP's 17 points rank 12th all-time behind some very illustrious players, including a string of recent Wings' prospects: Lundkvist, Mo Seider, Tim Erixon, Victor Hedman (age 18), Gustav Forsling, Rasmus Dahlin (age 17), Albert Johansson (DET), William Wallinder (DET), and Simon Edvinsson (DET). How does Detroit own the rights to half of the top ten all-time U20 SHL defender scoring list? All in recent consecutive years too.

Just a reminder that defencemen take much longer than forwards on average to make the NHL and start putting up fantasy-worthy stats. Sandin Pellikka could easily be a five-year wait still until he is earning a spot on your fantasy roster. That's 2028-29. But at the same time, he has progressed very, very nicely in his D+1 (whereas Lekkerimaki and Ohgren took a step back in production), elevating his game at both ends of the ice and establishing himself as one of the top offensive D prospects in the game. In terms of the Wings' defensive pipeline, my impression is that ASP has more offensive potential than Wallinder, Johansson, and maybe even Edvinsson, though he plays more like a slick-skating Olen Zellweger (ANA) than a more skilled version of Tyler Myers.

He makes an excellent trade chip to help put your team over the top or a relatively secure, high-end piece to stash on your farm for now.

Liiga – 2023-24

2nd: Jani Nyman (SEA, 19), 23 in 47, 0.49 goals per game

48th: Lenni Hameenaho (NJD, 19), 14 in 44, 0.32

51st: Konsta Helenius (2024, 17), 14 in 50, 0.28

Honourable Overager Mention

9th: Ville Koivunen (CAR, 20), 21 in 58, 0.36

15th: Nico Huuhtanen (TBL, 20), 19 in 51, 0.37

Liiga – Notable Historical U20 Single Season

13th: Jari Kurri (1979-80): 23 in 33, 0.7 goals per game

15th: Saku Koivu (1993-94): 23 in 47, 0.49

16th: Jani Nyman (2023-24): 23 in 47, 0.49

20th: Kaapo Kakko (2018-19): 22 in 45, 0.49 – 17 years old

21st: Kristian Vesalainen (2017-18): 22 in 49, 0.45

27th: Alexander Barkov (2012-13): 21 in 53, 0.4

31st: Mikael Granlund (2011-12): 20 in 45, 0.44

32nd: Sebastian Aho (2015-16): 20 in 45, 0.44 – 18 years old

42nd: Joel Armia (2012-13): 19 in 47, 0.4

Takeaways

Unlike the SHL, it turns out that there have actually been a ton of prolific U20 goal scorers in the Liiga who never crossed over to play in the NHL for whatever reason. Digging down into the historic stats a bit further, there have been roughly nine U20 goal-scorers in the top 1000 skaters in league history, and Jani Nyman is tied for second on that list with Saku Koivu.

(In case you're curious like I was, Patrik Laine scored 17 goals in 46 Liiga games as an 18-year-old draft-eligible skater, with a gpg rate of 0.37).

Nyman is like the Finnish Lekkerimaki this year, challenging for the league lead in goals at 19 years old and shooting the puck almost any chance he gets. Unlike Lekkerimaki, however, Nyman also brings an intimidating physical presence at 6-4 and 207 lbs, though he does not always use that to his advantage.

Unsurprisingly, his shot is his main weapon. Elite Prospects rated both his skating and hockey sense as below NHL average a couple years ago at the draft, and though he is a large man, his physical game still has a lot of room to develop. Seattle took a swing on him in the second round back in 2022, and their risk certainly seems to be paying off. A point-per-game campaign in his third full season of playing high-level hockey against men is a significant accomplishment, and the historical comparables certainly bear that out.

There remains a fair bit of risk with him in terms of an NHL projection, however, because it will be harder for him to find space and time at that level—even if he manages to develop his skating to NHL average. In terms of comparables, Joel Armia seems like a fair bet at this stage.

Armia actually put up better stats in the Liiga at a younger age than Nyman, but then regressed somewhat to settle in as a replacement-level producer at the NHL level. Both are big, somewhat physical guys with a nose for the net who love to shoot the puck. Armia topped out at 16 goals and 30 points with Montreal in 2019-20. Is Nyman's ceiling higher or lower than that?

My gut says somewhat higher, but I suspect that's the Optimism Bias that runs rampant with prospect evaluation. I do love to see his steady year-over-year improvement, though, and there remain a lot of question marks here regarding his future role and deployment with the Kraken. Despite his historic goal-scoring numbers this year, pencil Nyman in for 20-25 goals a few years from now and value him accordingly. Odds are you snagged him for free off the wire, and there are definitely less valuable prospects out there.

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Check out the Dobber Prospects scouting report on Helenius, who currently sits at 8th overall on our midseason board.

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Thanks for reading! Follow me on X @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.