Ramblings: Fading Penguins, Nurse, Bedard, Andersen (Mar 11)

Ian Gooding

2024-03-11

Hey, it's Ian again today, filling in for Brennan.

Now that the Penguins' playoff odds are in the single digits as per MoneyPuck, the rest of the season is starting to feel like a death march for Sidney Crosby and friends. The Pens just finished the three-games-in-four-days schedule that is beneficial for fantasy teams, but they mustered a grand total of one goal over those three games, losing those games by a combined score of 15-1. There are enough Penguins on the Frozen Tools Cold List to populate Antarctica. The most notable players:

Erik Karlsson: 0 PTS in 7 GP

Rickard Rakell, Evgeni Malkin: 0 PTS in 3 GP

Kris Letang: 1 PT in 7 GP

Crosby: 1 PT in 5 GP

The Pens have a four-game week coming up with potential slump buster matches against Ottawa and San Jose for their next two games, so I wouldn't necessarily bench the players listed above. I just can't help but wonder whether Crosby is thinking what life would be like with a team that isn't declining like the Penguins. Sid the Kid will be a UFA in the summer of 2025, if he is not re-signed by then. The Penguins appear headed toward an inevitable long rebuild, although he could certainly choose to finish his career there if he prefers. Something to watch.

Darnell Nurse led the Oilers with a pair of goals in Sunday's 4-1 win over the Pens. If you're not used to seeing Nurse's name in the goal column, it's because he had no goals in his previous 24 games. Nurse also had just one point in his previous nine games. His offense is down this season, as he is on pace for just 30 points after a 43-point season in 2022-23. Just remember that peripherals are also part of his game, and his hits and blocked shots are at around last season's pace. Nurse's 400 SOG+HIT+BKS places him just outside the top 10 in that category.

After his 13-game point streak was snapped, Connor McDavid was back in business on Sunday, registering another three points. He seems primed to make a late push in the scoring race, as his point total is only single digits behind Nathan MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov with at least a game in hand on both. 

Because of the time change, Calvin Pickard had to get up extra early on Sunday. That didn't seem to bother him, as he registered a 41-save shutout. Pickard has been very reliable as a stream this season (2.27 GAA, .919 SV%), so the Oilers should be in no rush to recall Jack Campbell.

A wild, and I mean Wild overtime finish in the Minnesota/Nashville game. The Wild decided to pull Marc-Andre Fleury during 3-on-3 overtime! The bold move paid off with Matt Boldy scored the overtime winner. Boldy also assisted on two goals for a three-point game.

This choice is not only risky because of the empty net, but also because the Wild would earn zero points from this game if they lost. The NHL rules state that if a team pulls the goalie in overtime and is scored on, that team would lose its single point earned from reaching overtime. That is not the case if a team pulls a goalie on a delayed penalty call and accidentally shoots the puck into their own net. In a way it makes sense for the Wild because they have some ground to make up in the Western Conference playoff race, and they were playing a team they are trying to catch.

The NHL has suspended John Tortorella two games and fined him $50,000 for refusing to leave the bench during Saturday's game after being assessed a game misconduct. I think the fine would have been sufficient in this instance. Compare this scenario to baseball, where managers are ejected regularly and argue with the umpire for a minute or two afterward. Baseball managers are sure to get their two cents in after an ejection, jawing with the ump, kicking dirt, and maybe tossing their hat before they finally saunter off the field. Meanwhile the NHL hems and haws with a two-game suspension when one player deliberately tries to maim another. Hmmm.

Sunday night was my cap league trade deadline. With my team firmly out of contention and in a rebuild, I was offering Evgeny Kuznetsov and his $7.8 million cap hit to anyone who would take him. When he was placed on waivers a week ago, my leaguemates in the chat scoffed when I jokingly flogged him up to anyone. A week later and he's back in the NHL, enjoying life with his new team (although he has yet to record a point). Sure enough, on Sunday afternoon I was offered Jesperi Kotkaniemi for Kuznetsov from a contending team, an offer that I accepted. A week ago, Kuznetsov was worth peanuts. Now, he's worth Kotkaniemi, which at least is a little more than peanuts, which can certainly be debated. Yet it's funny how value can change. The fact that this is one Cane for another is also not lost on me.   

Kotkaniemi, by the way, registered two assists and was a plus-3 on Sunday. After a long slumber during much of the middle part of the season (7 PTS in 45 GP), he's starting to wake up with four points over his last five games. I still wouldn't recommend Kotkaniemi except in the deepest of leagues (which this is) or in keeper leagues (which this also is). He doesn't receive ideal deployment on a deep Hurricanes roster, although he might have to at some point since the Canes are invested in him for the long haul (until after 2029-30).

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In the Canes' 7-2 win over Calgary, Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov each scored a goal and added two assists. Aho has seven points in his last five games, while Svechnikov has eight points over his last four games, including three multipoint games over those four games. Those who were patient with Svechnikov after his injury woes are now reaping the rewards, as Svechnikov is at a point per game (43 PTS in 43 GP).

Jalen Chatfield also chipped in a goal and an assist to go with a plus-4 and three hits. Chatfield has four points over his last four games, although he'll need to play a more prominent role in Carolina's attack before he should be considered for fantasy teams.  

In just his second game back after a lengthy absence, Frederik Andersen stopped 19 of 21 shots he faced. He has earned wins and quality starts in both of those games, allowing a combined three goals. Expect Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov to split starts the rest of the way, not only because Kochetkov has played well enough but also to ensure Andersen does not take on too heavy a workload.

The hat trick that benefitted practically no one came from Colin Blackwell, who scored three goals in the Blackhawks' 7-4 win over Arizona. Blackwell hadn't registered a point in six games and before Sunday had just three points in his last 24 games.

Blackwell wasn't the only Hawk to have a big day against the Yotes. Seth Jones registered four assists while taking five shots and eight shot attempts, while Connor Bedard scored twice and added an assist. Bedard is back in the rookie goal lead by himself with 19 goals, and he is nine points clear of all other rookies in spite of missing 14 games with a broken jaw. He is also the Blackhawks' leading scorer despite the missed games, although that's less of an accomplishment than it first appears to be because just about everyone else on the Chicago roster has missed a chunk of games.

In a losing cause, former Blackhawk Nick Schmaltz scored a goal and added two assists. Over his last nine games, Schmaltz has 12 points (5 G, 7 A), which makes him the only player on the Frozen Tools Hot List for the slumping Coyotes.

With a 6-1 win over Anaheim, the Islanders have moved into a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, moving ahead of the Red Wings. The Isles and Wings are tied in points, but the Isles have a game in hand.

Bo Horvat and Brock Nelson each scored a goal and added an assist, while Mathew Barzal chipped in with two assists.

Seeing his first game action in over two weeks (since February 22), Semyon Varlamov stopped 22 of 23 shots in picking up the win.  

Yes, we're already thinking about the playoffs. So it's a good time to mention that Dobber's 2024 Interactive Playoff Draft List can now be purchased. You can make your own picks for series winners, or go with Dobber's picks if you're not sure. Purchase yours here. Keep in mind that the actual spreadsheet will be available for use in early April.

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