Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a 14 team H2H cap league, with rosters of 7F, 4D, 1G, 6 Bench and scoring of G(1), A(1), HIT(0.25), BLK(0.25), a team in the middle of the pack but likely to make the playoffs has been offered Brady Tkachuk ($50 cap price) for Quinton Byfield ($1) and Nico Hischier ($5). Is it a worthwhile trade to make?

Tkachuk is a hits machine, there's no question about that. Not only does he rank in the top five among forwards in hits, but other than multi-cat darling J.T. Miller no one else in the top 20 has anywhere near the offensive production of Tkachuk. That having been said, Tkachuk's scoring is down, and not once in his career have the Senators shot even 10% at even strength while he's on the ice. On top of that, he's downright lousy on the PP, having – as I write this – received the 12th most PP minutes among forwards from 2019-20 onward, yet standing only tied for 51st in PPPts. He is at his 400-game "big guy" breakout threshold now, but hasn't made a leap in production. He also doesn't block a ton of shots as compared to most forwards.

Again, as I write this, he has 106 fantasy points. But guess what, Joel Eriksson Ek, who I'm sure is much less coveted, has 101, while Vincent Trocheck has an even higher 107. Even someone like Eeli Tolvanen, who's barely above a point per every other game, has nearly 90. There are dozens like Joe Pavelski who are solid but not spectacular in any of the areas, yet resulting in a scoring total in the 70-80 fantasy point range.

Truth be told, Tkachuk's "premium" in this league is not as much as most might suspect. After what he did last season, and how his older brother broke out, Brady has a perceived value that is through the roof. But I feel like we've reached a point where his actual value lags well behind. When you're looking at two guys in Byfield and Hischier who combined would cost barely a tenth of his salary, I feel like Tkachuk won't provide the return on investment necessary to make this a worthwhile deal. Instead, try to mine for gems like Tolvanen or others who would come a whole lot cheaper but still produce in Tkachuk's realm.

Topic #2 – In a 16 team league, where each team has a max of 38 players and forward scoring is points only, how should these three be ranked: Alexander Holtz, Zach Benson, Logan Stankoven?

This is an interesting question, in that each has "warts" to some degree. With Benson, there is a crowded forward corps on the Sabres, even after Casey Mittelstadt was moved. As for Holtz, he has not found a way to build upon AHL success and has a chicken and egg problem in that when he does play he hasn't shined, which leads to him playing less, making it more difficult for him to shine. Then there's Stankoven, who's made a significant NHL splash and probably has already done enough to secure himself a top-six spot for 2024-25, especially if Joe Pavelski opts to retire or is not re-signed; yet Dallas is notoriously stingy with ice times. The question becomes, who is best among them notwithstanding these warts?

I was among those who felt Holtz would be trade bait if the Devils were poised to go deep in the playoffs. With that not happening, will he still get moved? I think so, as other teams likely will view him as an asset that has either been utilized wrongly, too little, or both. A fresh start on a new team could do him wonders. Look no further than Yegor Sharangovich (more on him below), who was looking like a bottom-six forward after 2022-23 but has enjoyed a rebirth in Calgary. Yes, Holtz did not put up numbers like Sharangovich did in 2021-22; but I think that in the right situation he can make an impact.

Benson being kept with the Sabres all season is a strong statement on the part of the team as to him being a key part of their future. Also, his natural position of right wing is one where they're a bit thinner, with Victor Olofsson, to the extent he was an impediment, all but assured to ink a deal with a new team as a UFA this summer, and Alex Tuch not only making it look more and more that 2022-23 was a perfect storm, but also frequently being injured and set to be a UFA in 2026. Benson seems like he will be earmarked for a permanent top-six spot next season, and from there he could thrive, as look no further than Tuch's 2023-23 stats.

Stankoven, as I noted, also seems to be poised to land in the top six to stay next season. But on Dallas that is not as much of a recipe for top tier production as on other teams, since they are so deep and choose not to lean on their top line much more than their third line. As guys like Pavelski, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Matt Duchene continue to age and get deemphasized, it might shift the approach taken by the Stars, with Stankoven poised to be a key beneficiary.

I feel like Holtz has to be last. He just hasn't shown enough and might end up being a player who does not fulfill the potential seen in him when drafted and at the AHL level. I give Benson the edge over Stankoven, as Buffalo keeping him in the NHL at age 18 despite having an already capable corps of forward is a very big deal, and signifies – at least to me – that they have grand plans for him. Stankoven lands in the middle, but far closer to Benson than Holtz, as he should pan out quite well, but perhaps not for longer and perhaps not to the same extent unless the Stars rethink their ice time philosophy.

Topic #3 – In a 12 team, H2H cap league with scoring of points only for skaters and two points for a goalie win, one for an OTL, and an extra point for a Shutout, a GM who was just eliminated in the first round of his league's playoffs has a roster of:

F: Brayden Point, Martin Necas, Alex Debrincat, Trevor Zegras, Jesper Bratt, Lucas Raymond
D: Josh Morrissey, Anthony DeAngelo, Shayne Gostisbehere, Drew Doughty
G: Thatcher Demko, Elvis Merzlikins
Bench: Marco Rossi, Cody Glass, Mattias Maccelli, Matt Dumba, Kevin Shattenkirk, Frederik Andersen

Who should be the eight keepers?

Let's look at the bench first. Rossi got time alongside Kirill Kaprizov, but it benefitted neither. And after next season, the Wild can open their checkbook. If he'd thrived this season maybe he could be a short term keep, but as it stands he doesn't make the cut. Neither does Maccelli. Yes, he's shooting more and I'm impressed by his IPP; but he's been quietly good, making him a redraft not a keep. Andersen is too old and broken down, plus the team already has Demko.

No bench guys make the cut, meaning all eight will come from the main roster. The clear choices are Demko, Morrissey, Point, and Bratt, giving us half right there. The other spots come down to Necas, DeBrincat, Zegras, Raymond, Doughty and Gostisbehere.

As I noted in my most recent mailbag, the list of centers who, like Zegras, put up at least two seasons of 23+ goals and 60+ points by age 21 is extremely impressive, and more than enough to not only keep the faith figuratively, but keep Zegras literally. I also think both Detroit wings should make the cut, as although DeBrincat's 88 point pace season is looking more and more like an outlier, he's a dependable 65-75 point guy, which is enough to hold. As for Raymond, not only did he bounce back after a disappointing 2022-23, but he's doing better than his impressive rookie campaign. And he's just now at his breakout threshold. He should be every bit the equal of DeBrincat at minimum, but with a chance to be even better.

So we're left with Necas, Doughty and Gostisbehere for the last spot. Necas is doing pretty well for a guy stuck playing with Jack Drury, Stefan Noesen and, before he was traded, Michael Bunting, as reflected in his IPP being above 70% and him being nearly a point per gamer since the start of the second half. But that would be six forward keepers, which isn't ideal. Yet I think it's called for, as Doughty's scoring is a down despite a sky-high SH%; plus although he's still only 34, his legs feel a lot older, what with all the minutes he's logged and the many deep playoff runs the Kings have had. And as for Ghost, more than half his points have come on the PP, and he's shooting less. He might have a reduced role next season, even as a pending UFA.

Despite making the keeper list less diverse, I think the last spot goes to Necas. And the full list is Point, Bratt, Zegras, DeBrincat, Raymond, Necas, Morrissey, and Demko.

Topic #4 – What's up with Roope Hintz? Is he just having a down season?

Although Hintz has not maintained – let alone built upon – his success from 2022-23, it's not like the bottom has fallen out in terms of his production. Also, he had a great season in 2020-21 but came back to earth somewhat in 2021-22, so he still might need a bit more time to develop into a consistent player. Let's not forget that Hintz has a larger frame, and won't hit his 400-game breakout threshold until the beginning of next season. Patience seems to be in order.

Still though, the big issue with all Dallas players is due to the depth of the team no one has heaps of ice time, not even Hintz after a point per game season. The same holds true on the PP, where Hintz has yet to take the ice for an average of even 60% of his team's man advantage minutes in any season, even those where he was above a point per game pace. Also, his SH% is already quite high, yet his SOG rate is trending down for the second straight season. That will put somewhat of a cap on his scoring potential.

Also, looking at his other metrics does not paint a great picture. His IPP is barely above 60%, and his IPP on the PP, after being very solid for 2020-21 and 2021-22, is at 54% this season. On top of all that, his offensive zone starting percentage is on pace to drop for the third straight season. Yes, his 5×5 team shooting percentage has been in double digits the past three seasons and is on pace to be there as well for 2023-24. But might that be due to the skill of linemate Jason Robertson? Also troubling is Hintz has a nearly 50% secondary assist rate for 2023-24, which would easily be a career high.

Although part of me does want to be patient with Hintz, what with him having been a point per game player twice, let's not forget that the first time was in barely half a season's worth of games. Also, he'll be hitting his 400-game breakout threshold at nearly age 28, which is older than most, suggesting he might not be due for a major boost. All that, plus troubling trends, which were happening even as he was a point per gamer last season, suggest to me that he is more of a beneficiary of Jason Robertson than someone with top talent of his own. That is of concern since although thus far Wyatt Johnston has played as much wing as center, he is a natural pivot and highly regarded, such that it's not unreasonable to envision a future where it is Johnston, not Hintz, manning the center spot on the Dallas top line.

Long story short, before answering this question I honestly thought the data would suggest Hintz was just having a run of bad luck. It seems Hintz might have overachieved during the two seasons where he was a point per gamer. Yes, I'd say Hintz indeed might not be as good as advertised.

Topic #5 – In a 16 team H2H dynasty league with categories of G, A, PTs, SOG, HITs, Blks, TOI and FOW and where players maintain "minor" eligibility until they've played 150 games, a GM who needed d-men more than centers, traded his Adam Fantilli for Luke Hughes plus a first round pick that should be within the top ten. Good deal, or no?

Hughes has done well; but more than half his points have come on the PP, and he averages just 1.5 SOG per game. Beyond that, his hits and blocks don't even combine to be one per game. We know from Luke's big broth Quinn and Adam Fox that defensemen don't have to shoot a ton to still be productive; but Luke's reliance on the PP is a concern since who's to say how that will play out once Dougie Hamilton, who's paid a lot, is back in the mix. Hughes was on PP1 even when Hamilton was healthy; but I think that was largely done to instill confidence in Hughes, and might not be the way things shake out once both are in the line-up on a regular basis. Also, Hughes' OZ% is 60.2%, which is quite high, and likely also being done to help ease him into the NHL. His IPPs are not great, and neither is his secondary assist rate. But the team's 5×5 team shooting percentage when he's been on the ice is just 6.6%, which is undeniably low. But is it low because of bad luck, or due to Hughes being a drag on production? It's tough to say, although that high an OZ% combined with that low a team SH% is not what you want to see.

Fantilli also has started well, and is a full year younger than Hughes. I like that Fantilli is well over the two SOG per game rate, although that is in large part frontloaded by 61 SOG in his first 23 games, as since then he's hovered just above two per game. Although he's not been on PP1, he's still taken the ice for nearly half his team's man advantage minutes when he's played, but has only three PPPts to show for it. He too is being sheltered, with a 61.8% OZ%; however, that is less out of line for a forward than a d-man. But the big key with Fantilli is his IPP is 73.0%, and readers of my column know that perhaps the most important barometer for future success, in my opinion, is a 70%+ IPP early in one's career. This shows Fantilli is a points magnet and makes me more confident he will fulfill his potential.

Still, all things being equal in general, defensemen are a more precious commodity than centers, and this GM has a need for defense. Plus, getting a first rounder is a nice cherry on top. So even though I feel Hughes has a good number of question marks, and Fantilli could be great, nothing is set in stone and the deal seems good enough paper that I can't fault the GM for making it.

Topic #6 – In an 8 team league counting, as skater categories, Goals, assists, points, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, FW, hits, blocks, who is the best own among Jeff Skinner, Teuvo Teravainen, and Yegor Sharangovich?

Those reading this might say why focus on a comparison of three players who aren't among the most coveted? We need to remember that depth really does help win leagues. If you can snag a guy for 50-60 point value in a trade or via the draft, and he posts 65+ points, that's a good as a player you had tabbed for, at best, 70 points actually producing at a point per game or better.

Like Alex Tuch, Skinner has seen his production crater from 2022-23. What this reinforces is his success was a by-product of the amazing season from Tage Thompson. As Thompson has struggled, Skinner has come back to earth in a big way. He is back to not producing well on the PP and slowly but surely is seeing his PP minutes shrink. That is a concern, since Buffalo has no shortage of capable forwards itching to land on PP1 in his place. Skinner still shoots a ton, but that was never not the case, even during his lean years. His IPP is a tad higher, likely due to Thompson grabbing fewer points. Looking at Skinner's career, in all his seasons prior to 2022-23, his teams had never sported a double-digit shooting percentage at 5×5 with him on the ice, except 2022-23, when it was 12.1%. Skinner is, plain and simple, a passenger, who is not able to create his own scoring. With so many other options at forward for Buffalo, it's a risk to own him going forward.

Teravainen is quietly turning around what was a terrible season, with, as I write this, 15 points in his last 16 games. But his ice time is shrinking, and he's poised to take the ice for less that 50% of his team's man advantage minutes for the second straight season. And although his scoring is a far cry from his prior heights, his SH% is on pace to be far and away the highest it's ever been, which is not a good sign. He is being deemphasized, plain and simple, and the team likely sees him as a middle six forward at this stage of his career. That is still pretty good considering the depth on Carolina, but not good enough to be more than a 60-point player, if that. But the key wrinkle is he is a UFA after this season, and might be allowed to walk. If he latches onto the right team, he could fare better.

Sherangovich showed early promise by potting 24 goals in 2020-21. Last season he was not part of the top-six and his scoring all but evaporated. When he was moved to Calgary not many felt he would make an impact. But he has, scoring at a 60-point pace. Still, it's not led to an increase in PP time, and his SH%, like Teravainen's, is quite high. But Sharangovich's IPP is strong, and he has a very low secondary assist percentage, offsetting the gains he's likely had due to having scored more goals than he should've. Despite being only 25, he's set to be a UFA in 2025, and at his age could attract a lot of attention.

What's also interesting is all three are very weak in multi-cat. I'd go so far as to say in an eight-team league there could be players on the waiver wire who, all things considered, might be a better than these three. But if I had to rank them, I'd put Skinner first because he still is a scorer and he shoots a lot. Teravainen would be a notch above Sherangovich due to the UFA landing spot potential. And Sharangovich brings up the rear, but in truth is not that far behind the others.

Topic #7 – Things do not seem to be going well for John Tavares; has he lost a step, or will he bounce back?

When I went to look at Tavares' stats on Frozen Tools, I was a bit surprised he's only 33, as I figured he was a couple years older. I guess that's due to him having entered the league at age 19 and playing nearly all of his games every season.

The other surprise was that his SOG rate this season is as high as it's ever been, and in fact is poised to be above three per game yet again, as it has been for all but two of his campaigns. On top of that, his TOI is similar to recent seasons, except, however, the PP, and that is where I feel we should focus our attention.

Last season 39 of Tavares' 80 points came on the PP. That was easily a career best. This season though he's below a one PPPt per every four games rate, which, while certainly not his norm, has occurred four previous times, including two of his seasons in Toronto. The difference now is the emergence of William Nylander, as he's the one this season who's averaging nearly a PPPt per every other game. So whereas in prior seasons the three points available on a PPG scored by the Leafs most often went to Tavares, Auston Matthews, and Mitch Marner, with Nylander and Morgan Rielly getting scraps, now it's Tavares who's the "odd man out." The result is his IPP on the PP is under 50%. It reminds me a bit of Edmonton, where it's always been Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl piling on PPPts, but starting last season Ryan Nugent-Hopkins also emerged, leaving Zach Hyman with scraps, and a tiny PP IPP. Tavares is no longer someone interwoven into his team's PP DNA, and it's hurting his production.

That having been said, as I write this Toronto's 5×5 team shooting percentage when Tavares is on the ice is 7.0%, which is low for sure, as his average had been 8.8% over the previous four seasons, all with the Leafs. This is also reflected in Tavares' own SH%, which is below 10%; and if it stays under that threshold, it would be a first for him in his entire career. And it's not due to poor shot choice, as yet again he's above one PP SOG per game and has more shots from 0-15 feet than 16-30 and 40+ feet combined. He seemingly is being hampered by at least some unsustainable bad luck.

One issue with Tavares is his stats do not lend comparison to others, as if we look at centers dating back to 2000-01 who had the most seasons by age 32 averaging 3+ SOG but at the same time without averaging 1.15 points per game in any of those seasons, Tavares has 12. The next highest was Jeff Carter with nine, and Eric Staal and Brad Richards both with eight. Of the three, Staal had a 76-point season at the same age Tavares is now; but in terms of the other two, and Staal thereafter, none posted a scoring pace above 60 in a subsequent season. As I said, maybe Tavares defies comparison?

Given his SOG rate, shot selection, SH%, TOI, and team, he should be doing better. I'd not be surprised if we've seen the last of point per game Tavares. Things could get worse in short order, especially if, as has been occurring of late, he's bumped down to the third line at even strength. Also, Tavares is a UFA to be next season, and the Leafs have a lot of hefty deals in place already, so he might not be re-signed, in which case it might be difficult to envision him landing somewhere that would position him to score better. Long story short, Tavares' new normal may just be as a 60-70 point player, with exactly where in that range he fits depending on his PP time and his even strength deployment.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.