Ramblings: Updates on Dunn, Zary, and Jeannot; Fantasy Playoff Schedules to Target – March 14

Michael Clifford

2024-03-14

There was a lot of good injury news from Wednesday so let's start with Calgary Flames forward Connor Zary. He was on the ice for an optional practice on Wednesday and given the team's changes/injuries elsewhere, they need him. It still doesn't mean an imminent return, but certainly trending in the right direction.

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It looks as if Tampa Bay's Tanner Jeannot is on the verge of returning. He has played just one game in the last two months and he left that game early after just returning from another injury stint. It has been that kind of year for him but the banger-league special appears very close to being back in the lineup.

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And some good news on Vince Dunn:

Dunn has missed three games since taking that brutal hit from Martin Pospisil. When there is more good news to share, it will be passed along, but like Zary, this is a step in the right direction.

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It wasn't all good news as New Jersey provided an update on Jonas Sigenthaler:

In response, prospect blue liner Santeri Hatakka was called up.

It is never ideal to see a player diagnosed with a concussion so all the best to Siegenthaler, who has already missed time this season due to another injury.

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Mark Scheifele missed Winnipeg's game on Wednesday with an illness. Vladislav Namestnikov was moved to the top line in his place.

Winnipeg lost that game 4-2 at home to Nashville. Gustav Nyquist had a goal, an assist, two shots, and a pair of PIMs while Filip Forsberg, Kiefer Sherwood, and Jason Zucker all scored. Forsberg had four shots, a block, and a hit to go with his goal for a very good multi-cat effort.

Alex Iafallo and Mason Appleton replied for Winnipeg.

Juuse Saros stopped 27 of 29 shots in the win and is now 8-0-2 with a .932 save percentage in his last 10 starts.

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Jordan Binnington allowed just one goal on 41 shots in St. Louis's 3-1 win over Los Angeles. He now has nine wins in his last 16 games with a .929 save percentage.

Alexey Toropchenko, Jake Neighbours, and Brandon Saad all got on the board for the Blues. Neighbours had a block and three hits to go with his goal. Saad's tally was his 20th of the season and he has now reached 20 goals in seven different campaigns.

Adrian Kempe scored Los Angeles's lone goal, registering eight total shots and four hits.

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Edmonton put the beatdown on Washington by a 7-2 score. Zach Hyman had a hat trick (one goal on the PP) and that was his fourth hat trick of the season. He is still behind Auston Matthews (six) in that category but Hyman's 46 goals have him tied for second in the league with Sam Reinhart. Imagine going back five years ago and telling yourself that Hyman would be a 50-goal scorer in the next five years.

Leon Draisaitl had a goal and three assists (three PPPs) with seven shots while Connor McDavid had a goal and two assists (two PPPs) to go with a block and two PIMs. Things got so bad for the Caps that Connor Brown scored his first goal of the season, taking 55 games to do so. It was his first goal in nearly two years (March 24th, 2022).

Darcy Kuemper was in net for all seven goals, so anyone in head-to-head leagues that had to start him: it was a fun season.

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Colorado took a 4-3 overtime win in Vancouver while playing their second game in as many nights. Valeri Nichushkin scored the overtime winner on the power play in a game where he also had three hits. With Arttur Lehkonen out of the lineup again, Nichushkin was top line/top power play.

Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen each had a goal and an assist with both of MacKinnon's being on the man advantage as Rantanen assisted on MacKinnon's PP goal. The story is always MacKinnon, but Rantanen is now up to 90 points on the season, his third straight 90-point campaign.

JT Miller, Ilya Mikheyev, and Nikita Zadorov had the Vancouver goals. In fact, they scored the first three goals of the game as the Canucks blew a 3-0 lead they had with 20:05 left in the game.

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Casey DeSmith was solid but took the loss by allowing four goals on 34 shots.

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As of today, there are five weeks left in the regular season. For fantasy hockey owners in head-to-head leagues, this coming Monday will likely leave four weeks in the fantasy season which will be mostly, if not all, consisting of playoffs. It is a crucial time for managers to get their lineups right, so let's take some time to look at those four weeks, which teams to target or avoid. As is often the case, data will be from Natural Stat Trick with schedule information from the Schedule Planner on our Frozen Tools, with stats as of Wednesday afternoon.

Seattle

The delightful thing about any fantasy sport is how every team can carry a lot of importance at one time or another. Seattle, who is 28th in the league by goals/60 minutes, is going to be a very important team for fantasy playoffs.

In our four-week span, no team plays more than 14 games, and there are five such rosters. Of those five teams, Seattle has the most games on light days with six. Beyond that, the schedule is immaculate:

  • Week 1: vs. BUF, at VGK, at ARI, vs. MTL
  • Week 2: vs. ANA (x2), vs. DAL
  • Week 3: at SJ, at LAK, at ANA
  • Week 4: vs. ARI, vs. SJ, at DAL, at STL

That makes just four games against playoff teams and half their games against Anaheim, Arizona, or San Jose. Of their two three-game weeks, the first trio of contests features two home games against Anaheim while the latter trio are all on off-days with San Jose and Anaheim on the docket. Even on their slow weeks, they are worth fantasy consideration.

Our problem is figuring out who is useful. Seattle is still splitting power play time – no player has earned 60% of the team's PPTOI over the last two weeks and only two forwards are over 55% – and no forward is over 18:30 per game.

With all that said, managers in deeper leagues should consider defenceman Will Borgen. He has gone 16 straight games with at least one hit, a span that has seen him land 41 hits with 19 blocks. He has six points in that time and has even managed 18 shots. He has received more ice time of late with Vince Dunn injured, and that will likely come down when Dunn is back, but there is multi-cat value and a great schedule ahead.

Edmonton

Another of our 14-game teams is also a team where all the top guys are taken in every conceivable fantasy format. For some positive news, the schedule is a good one, even if it's not quite to Seattle's level:

  • Week 1: vs. MTL, vs. BUF, at TOR, at OTT
  • Week 2: at WPG, vs. LAK, vs. ANA
  • Week 3: at STL, at DAL, vs. COL, at CGY
  • Week 4: vs. VGK, vs. ARI, vs. VAN

The acquisition of Adam Henrique is pushing the Oilers to try and balance three lines, or at least attempt to do so. That has meant Warren Foegele is back on a line with Leon Draisaitl, and that has been very fortuitous for Foegele this season:

  • Foegele with Draisaitl: 3.1 points/60 and 12.4 shots/60
  • Foegele without Draisaitl: 1.9 points/60 and 9.2 shots/60

Over his last five games, Foegele has four points and 11 shots while skating over 14 minutes a game. He might not be a useful option for parts of Edmonton's schedule – Weeks 2 and 4 only have one great matchup each week and six games total – but he certainly can be for the four-game weeks.

Washington

Like Edmonton, Washington has 14 games, eight of them at home, and five total games on light days. Like Seattle, scoring has been tough to come by for most of the season, but it's worth noting that since the All-Star break, the Capitals are fifth by goals/60 on the power play. Their shooting percentage is riding a bit hot at 19% (on the season, the high-water mark is 18.01% from Tampa Bay and no other team is above 17.2%) but they are generating more shots, and that's a good sign.

The Capitals' four-week schedule looks like this:

  • Week 1: at CGY, vs. TOR, vs. CAR, vs. WPG
  • Week 2: vs. DET, at TOR, vs. BOS
  • Week 3: at BUF, vs. PIT, at CAR, vs. OTT
  • Week 4: at DET, at BUF, vs. TB

The schedule is tough for the first couple weeks but fantasy owners still kicking when April rolls around (or with room to stash players now) will need to consider the Capitals.

Here are two options, one for points-only formats and one for multi-cat formats.

In deeper points-only formats, keep an eye on Sonny Milano. Not sure how many people realize this, but he's second among Caps forwards by points/60 at 5-on-5 this season and leads the team over the last two seasons. He has been skating with Dylan Strome of late, the team's best playmaker, and Washington is creating 3.1 expected goals/60 at 5-on-5 with that duo on the ice (4.2 actual goals/60). He has even been earning secondary power play time as the team has evenly split the two units (except for Alex Ovechkin) since Anthony Mantha was traded. Ice time is always a concern, but he's a good offensive player skating with another good offensive player and finally getting power play time.

The other to consider is Connor McMichael. He might be gone in fantasy leagues, too, but at least he has 32 hits and 31 blocks in his 61 games, providing some peripheral stats. He has averaged 17:50 over his last 10 games, is getting regular power play usage, and will have value in those later weeks.

St. Louis

Though they have just 13 games, St. Louis and Seattle are the only two teams whose four-week schedule consists of teams with a combined points percentage under .500 and the Blues trail only the Kraken by highest opponent goals against/game. St. Louis is also at home for eight of the 13 games, and five of their games are on light days. Here is what they're looking at:

  • Week 1: vs. COL, at OTT, at MIN
  • Week 2: vs. VGK, vs. CGY, vs. SJ
  • Week 3: vs. EDM, at NSH, at SJ, at ANA
  • Week 4: vs. CHI, vs. CAR, vs. SEA

Just one four-game week is tough, but Week 4 isn't awful and all three of those games are at home on light days. Things could be worse.

Assuming all the top forwards are gone, and Jake Neighbours is rostered because of his power play role, fantasy owners should consider Brayden Schenn. He has been getting more top-line usage of late and his banger value is high as it always is (144 hits in 65 games). The ice time has gone down over the last week, so keep an eye on that, but multi-cat managers in shallower leagues might want to consider Schenn as we get later into March.

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