Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

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In case you missed it, check out Part One (AHL & KHL), Part Two (SHL & Liiga), and Part Three (NCAA) of this mini-series. The main prospects featured so far have been Jiri Kulich (BUF), Shane Wright (SEA), Matvei Michkov (PHI), Daniil But (ARI), Jonathan Lekkerimaki (VAN), Jani Nyman (SEA), Cutter Gauthier (ANA), Macklin Celebrini (2024 eligible), and Ryan Leonard (WAS).

All nine are future snipers to keep tabs on as they approach the NHL because goals are always at a premium in fantasy. They are harder to obtain than assists and are given an extra value boost in many formats. So when it comes to prospects, players that can regularly put the puck in the net carry additional fantasy intrigue.

It can be hard to contextualize scoring numbers, however, given the complexities of accounting for age and specific leagues. This week, we will focus on prospects in the OHL who are 19 or younger and keeping up with the best goal scorers in their respective leagues. The aim is to identify any surprises and standouts by comparing prospect production by goal rate with the top U20 historical campaigns in each league.

Tune in next week for a look at contextualized production in the WHL.

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Under-20 skaters by goals per game

Format:

Rank league-wide in total goals: Name (Team, age), # goals in # of games, goals per game

OHL – 2023-24

2nd: Carson Rehkopf (SEA, 18), 52 in 59, 0.88

3rd: Luca Pinelli (CBJ, 18), 48 in 67, 0.72

4th: Dalibor Dvorsky (STL, 18), 43 in 50, 0.86

6th: Quentin Musty (SJS, 18), 41 in 51, 0.8

8th: Cody Barlow (WPG, 18), 39 in 49, 0.8

9th: David Goyette (SEA, 19), 39 in 66, 0.59

11th: Gavin Hayes (CHI, 19), 37 in 55, 0.67

16th: Marek Vanacker (2024, 17), 36 in 66, 0.55

17th: Liam Greentree (2024, 17), 35 in 63, 0.56

19th: Denver Barkey (PHI, 18), 34 in 63, 0.54

20th: Easton Cowan (TOR, 18), 33 in 53, 0.62

21st: Owen Beck (MTL, 19), 33 in 55, 0.6

24th: Kasper Halttunen (SJS, 18), 32 in 56, 0.57

27th: Zayne Parekh (2024, 17), 32 in 64, 0.5 – Defenceman

28th: Florian Xhekaj (MTL, 19), 31 in 61, 0.51

34th: Nick Lardis (CHI, 19), 29 in 37, 0.78

OHL – Notable Historic U20 Single Seasons

9th: John Tavares (2006-07), 72 in 67, 1.07 – 16 years old

32nd: Alex DeBrincat (2016-17), 65 in 63, 1.03

41st: Patrick Kane (2006-07), 62 in 58, 1.07 – 18 years old

77th: Steven Stamkos (2007-08), 58 in 61, 0.95 – 17 years old

78th: John Tavares (2008-09), 58 in 56, 1.04 – 18 years old

91st: Tyler Toffoli (2010-11), 57 in 68, 0.84 – 18 years old

115th: Luke Evangelista (2021-22), 55 in 62, 0.89

121st: Nick Robertson (2019-20), 55 in 46, 1.2 – 18 years old

155th: Christian Dvorak (2015-16), 52 in 59, 0.88

167th: Tyler Toffoli (2011-12), 52 in 65, 0.8

170th: Carson Rehkopf (2023-24), 52 in 59, 0.88 – 18 years old

172nd: Jack Quinn (2019-20), 52 in 62, 0.84 – 18 years old

Historical context shows us that no one has had an extraordinary goal-scoring campaign in the OHL this year. Actually, that's a lie: no OHL forward has had an extraordinary goal-scoring campaign this year. 17-year-old draft-eligible Zayne Parekh (6th on our Mid-Season board), however, has done incredible things in 2023-24 and warrants his own special list. Narrowing our scope a bit, here is how his 32 goals rate against U18 OHL defenders over the last 30 years:

1st: Zayne Parekh (2023-24), 32 in 64, 0.5

2nd: Ryan Murphy (2010-11), 26 in 63, 0.41

3rd: Aaron Ekblad (2013-14), 23 in 58, 0.4

4th: Ryan Ellis (2008-09), 22 in 57, 0.39

5th: Drew Doughty (2006-07), 21 in 67, 0.31

8th: Zayne Parekh (2022-23), 21 in 50, 0.42 – 16 years old

9th: Sam Dickinson (2023-24), 18 in 67, 0.27

10th: Mikhail Sergachyev (2015-16), 17 in 67, 0.25

Not only does Parekh's current effort lead the list, but his goal-per-game mark of 0.42 from last year as a 16-year-old is still better than marks set by 17-year-old Ekblad, Ellis, and Doughty. Statistically speaking, this is literally as good as it gets. Interestingly, all three of those current NHLers peaked with 16 goals at the highest level. Ekblad in particular has been known for his elite shot and goal-scoring instincts, generating at least two shots per game and usually double-digit goal totals. Doughty, a former Norris Trophy winner, has scored more than 150 goals from the back end. Lofty company.

Here is Parekh's Dobber Prospects scouting report by Hadi Kalakeche from the Mid-Season Rankings:

"The combination of fluid skating, high-end puck skills, and supreme hockey sense make Parekh the defenseman with the highest offensive ceiling in our eyes. His level of poise is absurdly high, to a fault — it often prevents him from identifying moments in which the best play is to get rid of the puck. Parekh's ability to delay or accelerate passes into lanes depending on the circumstances and his booming shot are already at a level that rivals the NHL's best, and although the defending isn't polished, there are individual tools there that could be turned into an effective, cohesive package. Some outlets are calling his defensive game abysmal — we wouldn't go that far. With some work on his positioning and in-zone habits along with physical development, Parekh could become a true number 1 NHL defenseman and one of the best power-play quarterbacks in the league."

Zayne Parekh (2024) always stands out, but Oct 22nd was a different level. At 5v5, he led the game with:

• 8 shots
• 6 shot assists
• 5 scoring chances created
• 6 slot passes
• 5 entries prevented

These would be incredible totals for a top-line forward. He's a defenceman. pic.twitter.com/Kwec9RIAPg

— Mitchell Brown (@MitchLBrown) October 25, 2023

I would certainly be happy to come away with Parekh in my prospect drafts in June.

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Returning to the forwards, while no one had a historic campaign, it is certainly impressive that Rehkopf bested Jack Quinn's goals-per-game mark from a few years ago. While Quinn has not yet established himself at the NHL level, he is one of the most exciting goal-scoring prospects in the league and was taken 8th overall by the Sabres for a reason. Plus, Quinn had peak Marco Rossi setting him up all year in 2019-20. While Rehkopf's Kitchener Rangers are no slouch—he's playing with Hunter Brzustewicz, Filip Mesar, and Eduard Sale—he doesn't have a playmaker of Rossi's caliber and is still scoring at a very high level.

While other aspects of his game have improved since Seattle took him in the second round last year, his shot continues to be the star of the show. He is a pure finisher. Pucks whip off his stick, and if he is in a decent position, he will let one rip. As Mitch Brown's tracking data reveals, Rehkopf was averaging nine shot attempts at one point early in the year:

Carson Rehkopf's first 25 games this season:

• 26 goals
• 19 assists
• 116 shots on goal
• 225 shot attempts

Lethal shot. Playmaking and transition game have taken a big step. The Kraken second-rounder is for real. pic.twitter.com/f2wpNQSSMS

— Mitchell Brown (@MitchLBrown) November 28, 2023

Seattle would be absolutely delighted if he turned into a Tyler Toffoli type who can play in their top six and make their power play more dangerous. Many of his goals are reminiscent of Cutter Gauthier and Ryan Leonard (from last week's look at NCAA goal-scoring). He sets up near the face-off dot in the opposing zone, gets the puck, and bam it's in the net. Toffoli was trending better at an early age, which matters a lot in terms of NHL trajectory, but Rehkopf is showing excellent year-over-year growth to this point in his career.

Brown's tracking data shows that Rehkopf has significantly improved in terms of offense (55 → 95) and in transition (29 → 70) at the expense of weaker defensive contributions (63 → 24) versus his draft year. He still struggles at getting the puck out of his own zone, but when teammates find him in the neutral zone, he has gotten a lot better at entering the opposing zone with possession. His two-way play—particularly forechecking and defensive retrievals—has fallen off this year, so he may be cheating somewhat on offence. But he is exponentially more involved in the play, is shooting everything that moves, and has become the go-to guy on his team for offence.

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All of the top U20 OHL goal-scoring campaigns listed above exceeded the 0.8 goal-per-game mark, and three other skaters passed that threshold this year: Dvorsky (0.86), Musty (0.8), and Barlow (0.8). Chicago's Nick Lardis was the next closest (0.78) in about 12 fewer games, so he is someone to keep an eye on as a possible trade target given his reduced year-long totals. Be ready to pay the "he might play with Bedard" premium still in effect on all Blackhawks prospects though.

While Musty and Barlow were expected to dominate the OHL in their D+1, Dvorsky was more of a wild card despite being the earliest picked at 10th overall. Prior to coming to North America, he had destroyed the J20 Nationell (61 points in 43 games) against his peers but struggled in the Allsvenskan (17 in 56) and SHL (0 in 10) against older competition. Much like Brad Lambert, an uber-skilled forward who came up playing against men as a teen in Finland but then exploded when given a chance to excel at the WHL level, Dvorksy has truly emerged this year in Ontario, backing up his immense potential with impressive production for Sudbury.

His line with Musty and Goyette has been one of the best in the CHL all year:

Goyette to Dvorský to Musty 👌 pic.twitter.com/hct1KnvjQc

— Mike Commito (@mikecommito) March 17, 2024

Just check out his 2023-24 tracking data:

Unlike Rehkopf, Dvorsky is a transition monster. He confidently transports pucks out of his own zone and sets up dangerous chances on the other end. He is clearly a dual threat who can either snipe or create a play—an attribute shared by Musty and to a lesser extent Goyette. No wonder they scored 123 goals between the three of them!

Another interesting area where Dvorsky diverges from Rehkopf: he is much more discerning when it comes to shot selection. His Expected Goals/60 is roughly comparable with Rehkopf's but his Shots/60 is far, far lower. This is something to keep an eye on; there is nothing worse in fantasy than an elite goal-scorer who refuses to shoot the puck. But he has been billed all along as one of the most complete players in the 2023 class: high floor, high ceiling, well-rounded. While his ugly Defensive Plays/Corsi Against stat jumps out here, it is likely influenced by his usage with Sudbury as the go-to production line.

The Blues certainly have an elite prospect on their hands. Oh, and he's excellent at faceoffs too.

Quentin Musty (SJS): 2G, 4A, 6PTS, +5, 4SOG
Dalibor Dvorsky (STL): 3G, 1A, 4PTS, +2, 6SOG, 16/22 FO
David Goyette (SEA): 2G, 4A, 6PTS, +4, 4SOG

— Scott Wheeler (@scottcwheeler) March 23, 2024

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Musty has scored in spurts in 2023-24. He has 11 multi-goal games, which account for 25 of his 41 goals, and 25 games (out of 51 total) where he did not find the back of the net. Of course, we are only looking at goal scoring right now, which is only half of the picture. In those 25 games, Musty gathered at least one assist in 17 of them, meaning he has only gone actually scoreless in eight games this year.

Where Dvorsky was appealing at the draft for his complete game, Musty was appetizing for his upside, so seeing him repeatedly explode like that (three 6-point games, two 5-point games) while going dry at times is not surprising. On this line with Dvorsky and Goyette, both incredible playmakers, many of Musty's goals have been tap-ins after jaw-dropping plays from his linemates. Nevertheless, his quick hands and net-front skill have been on full display this year.

Quentin Musty going full Pavelski pic.twitter.com/5AuWuUzjLn

— JD Young (@MyFryHole) March 17, 2024

Forechecking is the only deficiency flagged by his tracking stats. Otherwise, Musty is one of the best in the entire data set at both Expected Goals/60 and Expected Primary Assists/60. He is constantly involved in the play and creating high-danger scoring chances for himself and his teammates. Picture him alongside William Eklund, Will Smith, and either Macklin Celebrini or Ivan Demidov and the Sharks future gets brighter in a hurry.

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Having drafted or acquired Barlow in a couple leagues, I have been nervous that he hasn't absolutely dominated the OHL this year. Next to his 46 goals and 79 points in only 59 games last year as a draft-eligible, his 39 goals and 57 points in 49 games this year feels like a pretty clear step back. He was okay through October and November, then missed most of December due to injury. He has at least increased his goal-scoring rate in 2023-24, however, which is good to see.

Context is key, of course, and Owen Sound (66 points) doesn't boast nearly the same firepower of Kitchener (85) or Sudbury (81), but looking under the hood, Barlow's overall impact on the game is much less shiny than the others profiled above.

Beyond decent defensive impacts and being heavily involved as a primary play-driver, there is not a lot to like here. He struggles in transition, doesn't have great off-puck impacts, and has posted poor playmaking results.

Maybe some of these turn around with stronger teammates and a better system, but I am definitely cooling a bit on Barlow. He brings an intriguing size-power combo to the table and should still hold decent value in fantasy, especially in multi-cat formats, but I am considering exploring the market for him after this year. D+1 development is crucial, historically speaking, and this was certainly a rocky one for Barlow even though he still ended up as one of the best goal scorers in the OHL. My worry is that he is too one-dimensional and may struggle as the quality of competition increases.

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Thanks for reading! Follow me on X @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.