Ramblings: Letang vs. Karlsson; PP Peterka & Drouin; Brent Burning Up? (Mar 25)
Brennan Des
2024-03-25
Ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets, Washington recognized T.J. Oshie for reaching the 1000-game milestone recently. He rose to the occasion, tallying two assists as the Caps won 3-0 against Winnipeg. I'm sure many wrote Oshie off after he opened this season with just two points in his first 19 appearances. Surprisingly, the 37-year-old forward turned things around in a big way and has 19 points in his last 25 games – a 62-point pace.
After a couple of underwhelming outings, Charlie Lindgren bounced back with a 27-save shutout against Winnipeg. Although he and the Capitals are having surprisingly strong seasons, I'm hesitant to endorse Lindgren in fantasy leagues this week. He's up against strong offenses from Detroit, Toronto and Boston.
Alex Ovechkin led the way with two goals on Sunday, giving him eight goals in his last five games. Through the 2023 portion of the campaign, Ovi had just 21 points in 34 games – which translates to 50 points over 82 games. Since the calendar flipped to 2024, he has 37 points in 33 games – a 91-point pace. Some may have panicked at Ovi's slow start, understandably scared of age-related decline. If you leveraged his early struggles into a buy low opportunity and you're reaping the rewards now, hats off to you.
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In Sunday's clash of Cole Harbour, Sidney Crosby won the battle, but Nathan MacKinnon won the war.
Sid did his best to march the Penguins to victory, factoring in on all four of Pittsburgh's goals as they took a 4-0 lead. Mackinnon came roaring back with three points of his own as Colorado tied the game 4-4 and secured the victory in overtime.
Jonathan Drouin scored the overtime winner, giving him three points on Sunday and 14 in his last 11. It surprises me that Drouin is currently owned in 18% of Yahoo Leagues while Arturri Lehkonen is up at 48%. Both players skate on Colorado's second line at even strength (beside Casey Mittelstadt), but it's Drouin who's still on the top power-play unit now that Valeri Nichushkin's back in the lineup. The Avs have your run-of-the-mill Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday schedule this week, so you don't need to rush to grab Drouin right now. However, if you need a pickup for the week after (April 1-7), keep Drouin in mind.
With an assist on Sunday, Kris Letang now has 41 points in 70 games. Just four of those points came with the man advantage as Letang has seen a measly 37% share of Pittsburgh's total power-play time. It's remarkable that Letang's overall output hasn't changed much from last season, when he held a 69% share of power-play time and racked up 21 PPPs over 63 appearances.
I was surprised to see that Erik Karlsson only has five more total points than Letang this season, despite seeing way more opportunity with the man advantage (67%). Due to Pittsburgh's power-play struggles, Karlsson's high-volume of opportunity hasn't resulted in as much production as we would've expected. Power-play aside though, Letang is outscoring Karlsson 36 to 31 at even strength. Karlsson has been ice cold lately, with just three points in his last 14 games. Depending on your format, I wouldn't blame you for dropping him if it's a do-or-die week in a one-year league. That being said, I would expect him to bounce back next season.
One of Sunday's biggest surprises was Kaapo Kahkonen. He turned aside all 37 shots the Islanders threw at him, becoming the first Devils' netminder to post a shutout this season. Having spent most of the year behind a low-quality Sharks team, this was Kahkonen's third start for the Devils. He had mixed results before this, allowing two goals on 25 shots against the Rangers, but then three goals on 15 shots against the Coyotes. Sunday's outing broke a streak of five-straight starts for Jake Allen. Allen was strong for the first four of those five games, so I expect he'll still be New Jersey's primary option down the stretch. However, Kahkonen could certainly demand a few more starts following this performance.
After the Senators held him off the scoresheet on Saturday, Timo Meier returned to form with a goal and an assist against the Isles on Sunday. You'll notice he skated just 14 minutes on Sunday, but don't worry about that becoming a trend. His ice time was limited because he racked up 17 penalty minutes sticking up for captain Nico Hischier, who had taken a knee-on-knee hit from Anders Lee. Meier's been red hot this past month, sitting seventh in league scoring with 21 points in 16 games. With Tyler Toffoli getting traded to Winnipeg a few weeks ago, Meier's finally seeing a consistent top power-play role. He has five power-play points in his last four games.
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Sunday was Joseph Woll's fifth start after missing over two months with a high ankle sprain. It also happened to be his best start since returning, as he stopped 41 of the 43 shots Carolina threw his way. With Samsonov leaving Saturday's game against Edmonton and reportedly feeling less than 100% on Sunday, Woll will likely start against the Devils on Tuesday.
Woll was ultimately outdueled by Frederik Andersen, who made 31 saves as the Hurricanes beat Toronto 2-1. Andersen has been excellent since returning from injury and has allowed two goals or fewer in his last 10 starts.
Brent Burns registered an assist on Sunday, giving him six points in his last six games. Despite this recent run, he's on pace for just 44 points this season – a significant downgrade from the 61 he tallied last year. He recently turned 39, so age-related decline is a valid concern going forward. Despite leading Carolina's defenseman in power-play opportunity, Burns doesn't lead the team's blueliners in overall scoring. That honour goes to Brady Skjei, who scored on Sunday and is clicking at a 47-point pace this year. I would propose Skjei as a potential successor for Burns on the power play next season, but Skjei is a free agent this summer and has likely priced himself out of Carolina. Perhaps Dmitry Orlov steps into a bigger role next year? Or maybe the Hurricanes are stuck with another year of Burns on PP1.
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Zach Hyman scored his 50th goal of the season during Sunday's game against the Senators. It took him just 68 games to reach that milestone for the first time in his career. Auston Matthews is the only player with more goals per game this season. Although it's an achievement worth applauding. Hyman's lofty shooting percentage of 20.1% suggests he'll be hard-pressed to score at this rate next year.
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Vladimir Tarasenko scored a power-play goal in Florida's 4-1 win over Philly. He's been seeing time on the top unit these past three games with captain Aleksander Barkov sidelined. With Barkov expected to return on Tuesday or Thursday this week, Tarasenko will likely drop into a secondary power-play role again.
Felix Sandstrom struggled against the Panthers, allowing three goals on just 14 shots. The Flyers' have a narrow lead in the playoff race and will probably have to lean on Samuel Ersson in net as they try to maintain that lead and secure a postseason berth. Although Tuesday's matchup with the Rangers will be a tough one, Philly faces two non-playoff teams later in the week, with Montreal on Thursday and Chicago on Saturday. Ersson could help you in your fantasy playoff run as he helps the Flyers on their own run to the playoffs.
Brandon Montour had a great showing on Sunday, tallying three assists. After he racked up 13 points in seven games during late February/early March, many of us thought he was back. However, he followed that up with just three points in nine games before Sunday's outburst. Let's see if this is the start of another hot streak.
Morning edit: Shortly after Hyman gained admission into the NHL’s 50-goal club, Sam Reinhart became member number three, scoring two goals against the Flyers. Reinhart had crossed the 30-goal threshold in his previous two seasons with the Panthers, but this is the first time he’s hit 50 in his career. He’s secured himself a massive payday this summer as a result of this season’s outstanding performance. That being said, I am wary of some regression next year as this season’s 25.8% shooting percentage will be hard to replicate.
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The Tampa Bay Lightning were missing a few prominent players during Sunday's dance with the Ducks.
With Victor Hedman unavailable and Mikhail Sergachev injured earlier in the season, 28-year-old Darren Raddysh stepped up as the lone defenseman on Tampa's top power-play unit. The power play didn't look great without Hedman and Brayden Point in the mix, so I wouldn't necessarily be rushing to grab Raddysh from the waiver wire.
Anthony Duclair has been riding a wave of lightning since arriving in Tampa Bay. With a goal against Anaheim on Sunday, he's now scored in five of seven games with his new team, recording a point in all seven of those games.
Tampa plays just two games this week, so they aren't the ideal team to roster in fantasy formats. That being said, it's virtually impossible to find games on light nights this week. Across the league, there are only two games on Monday, two games on Wednesday, one game on Friday, and one game on Sunday. Finding players that play on those days will be crucial this week as you try to maximize your games played. Tampa plays on Wednesday, so you may want to wait until after that game to drop your fringe Lightning players.
He didn't play, but Trevor Zegras was a game-time decision ahead of Sunday's tilt with Tampa. That would suggest that he's on the verge of a return – perhaps Tuesday against the Kraken? John Gibson missed Sunday's game due to personal reasons.
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Dallas secured a 4-2 win over the Coyotes thanks to three-point nights from Tyler Seguin and Matt Duchene. Duchene has often been recognized as an underrated gem in Dallas this year, but I don't think Tyler Seguin has received enough attention for his contributions. He's scoring at a 66-point pace despite seeing a measly 40% share of Dallas' time with the man advantage.
It's been a disappointing season for Jake Oettinger, but Sunday's game against Arizona marked his third-straight quality start. He's hitting his stride at the perfect time. The Stars play San Jose, Vancouver and Seattle this week. I imagine Scott Wedgewood will get the start against San Jose or Seattle, to give Oettinger a breather.
Nick Bjugstad scored a goal on Sunday, giving him nine points in his last nine games. The Coyotes have a nice light night schedule next week (April 1-7), so if you're in need of waiver wire help down the road, keep Bjugstad in mind.
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Tage Thompson led the Sabres to a 4-1 victory over the Flames on Sunday, tallying a goal and an assist. He's stepped up just in time for the fantasy playoffs, racking up 10 points in his last eight games. This hot streak comes right after a dry spell that saw him post eight points over 21 games from mid-January to early-March.
JJ Peterka scored the game-winning goal against Calgary, giving him six points (four goals) in his last seven games. He's currently skating beside Thompson and Alex Tuch on Buffalo's top line. More importantly, he's seen top power-play time over the past couple games. Buffalo and Vancouver are the only teams with multiple light-night games this week. Getting Peterka on your roster this week should help you squeeze some extra games and extra production, ultimately bringing you closer to a fantasy championship.
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Cayden Primeau stood tall against Seattle on Sunday. He stopped 36 of the 37 shots the Kraken thew his way and led Montreal to a 5-1 victory. The 24-year-old netminder is up to 17 starts this year and owns a .910 save percentage. He's one of many promising young netminders the Habs have in their system right now, Sam Montembeault and Jacob Fowler being others. With Montreal's up-and-coming defensive core, I imagine the likes of Primeau and Montembeault could be valuable fantasy assets in the near future, so keep an eye on them in dynasty leagues.
Speaking of Montreal's defense, how about this goal from Mike Matheson?
Philipp Grubauer had a nightmare start against the Canadiens, surrendering four goals on just six shots. You have to imagine Joey Daccord gets the call for Seattle's next game, scheduled on Tuesday against the Ducks. Daccord's been good lately. With Seattle facing the lowly Ducks twice this week, he could be a valuable pickup from your league's waiver wire.
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Thanks for reading! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!
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Good job, Brennan. However, rather than mentioning Tarasenko’s PPG VS Philly I would think you’d mention Sam Reinhart scoring his 50th. Sort of a bigger deal, right?
You’re absolutely right, Greg! Don’t know how I missed that.
Just added a section for it. Apologies for the oversight and thank you for letting me know!