This week we will look at each playoff team in the Western Conference and break down the lineups using my player game ratings (PGR).

As we can see from the team ratings, the separation between teams is razor-thin and injuries and returning players will be huge.

Lineups will change and injuries will occur, but here are the projected playoff lineups for most teams. After playing more than 20 games, the ratings rarely fluctuate that much per game, except for goalies who can seemingly tank a good season with one or two bad games.

The ratings are based completely on what each player has produced in several categories and are objective from that standpoint.

The Western Conference has Colorado, Vegas, Winnipeg and Edmonton in the top four (in that order). At the same time, Vancouver sits at eight, Dallas at nine, Los Angeles at 11th and Nashville at 13th overall in the NHL according to the team ratings.

The average team rating is 6.456 broken down as follows for the players:

Goalies – 6.453

Forwards – 6.473

Defense – 6.425

Nashville Predators – 13th in the NHL – 6.479 Rating

The Predators go into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the NHL having gone 18-6-3 since the All-Star break. Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi lead them, while Ryan O'Reilly and Gustav Nyquist have had very good seasons playing in the top six.

Nashville reminds me a little of the 2022-2023 Seattle Kraken as they have a well-rounded forward group and have depth with Cody Glass if he is healthy. They essentially have one first line and three third lines.

Defensively, they rely on Josi quite a bit. He has been a rock for them and should once again be in the running for the Norris Trophy. They don't boast any top-end defenders after Josi, as there is quite a drop to Ryan McDonagh and Jeremy Lauzon.

They have had disappointing years from Tyson Barrie, Dante Fabbro and Luke Schenn, and will need all three of those players to elevate their play if they hope to move on in the playoffs.

For the first time in quite a while, Juuse Saros has not had a great season. Fortunately, Kevin Lankinen has been solid as a backup. They will need Saros to be great to go more than one round.

Los Angeles Kings – 11th – 6.498 rating

The Kings boast seven forwards – perhaps eight if you include a disappointing Pierre-Luc Dubois – who are all bona fide top-six players on any team. This is a chance for Dubois to put a bad season behind him and elevate his play.

Adrian Kempe has taken over as the top producer on this team and a healthy Viktor Arvidsson provides the equivalent of a pretty good trade deadline acquisition.

Defensively is where the Kings lack depth and could be exploited in the playoffs. They have a decent enough top four with Drew Doughty, Matt Roy, Mikey Anderson and Vladislav Gavrikov, but they might have to limit the minutes of Andreas Englund and Jordan Spence. After those six, it gets pretty slim with Jacob Moverare and potentially Brandt Clarke, who might or might not be ready.

Goaltending with Cam Talbot and David Rittich has been very good, albeit the Kings play a very tight defensive game which might slightly elevate the numbers of most goalies.

Dallas Stars – 9th – 6.501 rating

The Stars could have the best top-nine forward group in the NHL, with the emergence of Logan Stankoven. Even with the line of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski not producing as much as in 2022-2023, the addition of Matt Duchene and the resurgence of Mason Marchment has given the Stars an almost perfect balance.

We have witnessed the emergence of Wyatt Johnston, who will be the number-one center in Dallas sooner than later and arguably could be there already.

The Stars have seven forwards who have taken more than 400 faceoffs and are over 50%, with Jamie Benn, Duchene, Tyler Seguin, Roope Hintz and Radek Faksa all over 54.5%.

The improvement from Thomas Harley has allowed the team to finally move Ryan Suter down the lineup to the third pairing. Esa Lindell, Harley, Miro Heiskanen and Chris Tanev fill out the top four. The Stars have some depth with Jani Hakanpaa or Nils Lundkvist in the lineup.

Jake Oettinger has a record of 33-14-4 but overall has been slightly below average. It's worrying that his poor play dates back to last year's playoffs, when he had a save percentage of 89.5 and a GSAA of negative 4.60 in 19 games. He needs to be better for the Stars to go as deep as they did in 2022-2023.

This team is built to go deep.

Vancouver Canucks – 8th – 6.508 rating

On paper, the Canucks are one of the strongest teams down the middle with J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson, Elias Lindholm and Teddy Blueger. In reality, Pettersson has faded recently and Lindholm has struggled all year. It will be interesting to see how they do in the playoffs.

They have four legitimate top-six forwards in Pettersson, Miller and Brock Boeser, with Lindholm included out of past performance. I'm not sure Dakota Joshua, Conor Garland and Nils Hoglander belong in the top-six, although all three have been pleasant surprises.

Vancouver will need Ilya Mikheyev to get his game back to 2021-2022 levels – which he has done recently, although the offense hasn't quite followed. The recent form of Pius Suter and Sam Lafferty is a little concerning even though they both scored goals on Saturday night.

On defense, the Canucks go as Quinn Hughes goes and he has to be a favorite to win the Norris Trophy. Filip Hronek has been good (maybe not $8 million AAV good) but has faded offensively in the second half for a second year straight.

Tyler Myers has been much better in 2023-2024, while Nikita Zadorov has steadied his game recently. Vancouver will go with the experienced Ian Cole over Noah Juulsen, but if Cole falters early, Juulsen should slot in.

Thatcher Demko is set to return from a knee injury that kept him out for over a month and a half. He was playing well, but there is no assurance he will pick it up from where he left it.

Vancouver lacks depth and any injury in the forwards will severely jeopardize any hope this team has of going more than a few rounds. They have a lot of question marks and need key players to elevate their games.

Edmonton Oilers – 4th – 6.524 rating

If and when Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid play together, you won't find a better pairing in the NHL. Zach Hyman complements either player so well and it really sets these three apart.

The addition of Adam Henrique gives the Oilers another top-six forward who excels in the faceoff circle (53.7%). It will be interesting to see if the Oilers use Evander Kane or Warren Foegele in the top six.

The bottom six and lack of depth in the forwards have been the Oilers' Achilles heel before. Foegele and Ryan Mcleod have improved from last year and the team has added Corey Perry and Connor Brown who are both experienced.

The production explosion from Evan Bouchard has elevated him over Darnell Nurse and the recent play of Mattias Ekholm has him peaking at the right time. It might be argued that the pressure to provide offense has made Nurse a better all-around defender. Cody Ceci can be a good top-four defender but if Brett Kulak, Vincent Desharnais or Troy Stecher are forced into that role, the Oilers won't go far.

Through 12 playoff games in 2022-2023, Stuart Skinner had a save percentage of 88.3 and a GSAA of negative 6.80. The Oilers couldn't overcome his struggles, so they'll need him to be much better this year.

The Oilers are slightly improved over 2022-2023 but it mostly rests on goaltending, as well as Draisaitl and McDavid producing.

Winnipeg Jets – 3rd – 6.528 rating

The Jets go into the playoffs with perhaps the NHL's best goaltending tandem in Connor Hellebuyck and Laurent Brossoit. Brossoit won't see a game unless Hellebuyck gets hurt or really struggles.

Winnipeg has one the most-balanced forward groups in the NHL, with a vastly improved third and fourth line compared to 2022-2023. They are very strong down the middle and the additions of Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli have improved their secondary scoring behind Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele.

Josh Morrissey will be relied on heavily on defense, with Neal Pionk and Dylan DeMelo next in the pecking order. Brenden Dillon sets the tone on defense with his physicality but is at his best when kept to under 19 minutes a game. We could see a rotation for the third pairing between Nate Schmidt, Dylan Samberg, Logan Stanley and Colin Miller.

At the end of 2022-2023, it appeared the Jets' window was closing with Scheifele and Hellebuyck on the way out of Winnipeg. What a turnaround.

Vegas Golden Knights – 2nd – 6.529 rating

These ratings have Mark Stone on the bench to start the postseason. It remains to be seen if Stone will be at the level he was during last year's playoffs when he eventually returns.

Adin Hill has missed most of the last month and we will need to see if he or Logan Thompson will start in goal at the beginning of the playoffs. We need to remind ourselves that Hill was not the starter at the beginning of the playoffs in 2022-2023.

The additions of Tomas Hertl and Noah Hanifin are almost unfair and have turned the 14th overall team in the overall standings (albeit underachieving) to one of the favorites in 2023-2024. The return of Mark Stone to even 80 or 90 percent of his prior level and the other addition of Anthony Mantha just adds to it.

The Golden Knights are very solid and very deep down the middle and have one of the better fourth lines in the league.

They still have one of the best defense corps in the NHL with Hanifin, Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore, Alec Martinez and Brayden McNabb all healthy. They have good depth in Zach Whitecloud, Ben Hutton and Nicolas Hague for the sixth spot.

Most Stanley Cup champions don't come back the following season with a stronger roster, but the Golden Knights have. The test will be how much the other NHL teams have improved in comparison. 

Colorado Avalanche – 1st – 6.542 rating

One of the bigger issues the Avalanche had in 2022-2023 was their lack of forward depth (much like Edmonton). They went out and got Miles Wood, Ross Colton, Jonathan Drouin in the summer and Zach Parise in January. Colorado traded for Yakov Trenin, Brandon Duhaime and Casey Mittelstadt before or at the deadline.

They have re-tooled this forward group into an excellent top-six and much improved bottom-six.

If Gabriel Landeskog returns at some point in the playoffs, it would help them even more.

On defense, Cale Makar and Devon Toews should do their thing, averaging over 24 minutes per night and putting up points.

The Avalanche added Sean Walker who should be an upgrade defensively on Bowen Byram (who was traded for Mittelstadt). They also have Samuel Girard and a healthy Josh Manson. Jack Johnson has been decent when limited to 14-16 minutes per game, but Colorado does lack depth on the back end with Caleb Jones and perhaps Sam Malinski the 7th and 8th defenders.

Goaltending is an interesting conundrum for Colorado as Justus Annunen has outplayed Alexandar Georgiev since the All-Star break. I think they will 100% start Georgiev to begin the playoffs but if he struggles anything could happen and we could see another rookie goaltender lift the Stanley Cup first.

Colorado is the favorite to emerge from the Western Conference but I think there are at least five teams who could make it out and win the Stanley Cup.

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