Analytics Advantage: The Eastern Conference Playoff Teams

Stas Pupkov

2024-04-19

Now that the regular season has ended, the entire Analytics Advantage style is going to be revamped for the playoffs. Firstly, I would like to thank everyone who took a moment of their time to read my column and an even bigger thanks to the people who have sent me a message or gave a follow on Twitter/X!

I hope everyone enjoyed the sneak peek of playoff intensity as the last couple of spots for the dance have been fought over, won over, and lost over for this past month. This season has been incredible with the league having nine players with more than 100 points (22/23 had 11). The number of players who found themselves at a point per game rate w/ more than 20 games played is 33 (22/23 had 38). It seems like league scoring has gone down on average while goaltending was very similar with an average SV% of 0.904 across the league for the past 2 years.  We have not seen any major differences between the 2 years, with scoring being just a bit down this year.

The plan with the playoff column style will be to highlight some interesting data and advantages or disadvantages teams have in these playoffs. This article is meant to be an overview of each team, so we know what kind of statistical advantages/disadvantages some of these teams have had this season.

This first article will include the Eastern teams, with the West being posted later this week.

New York Rangers (p – 114 pts)

Why are they here?
The New York Rangers have been elite this whole season and are in the top of the league in most stats. Being the Presidents' Trophy winners, the Rangers get to enjoy a home ice advantage, which they have one of the best in the Eastern Conference. Over 41 games at home, they had 31 wins and 11 losses. They boast the 2nd best goal differential at home with +35 (136 GF – 101 GA). Some of the most important aspects in playoff hockey are faceoffs and power plays, and the rangers are the best at home faceoff team in the playoffs and have the 2nd best powerplay at home in the east.
Matchup Notes:
This should be a breeze for the Rangers, this capitals team cannot score and cannot keep the puck out of their net, 2 things the Rangers have no issues with. Goaltending needs to be on point and the top forwards and defenseman need to shine in MSG.
Biggest Crutch:

The Rangers have been a team that makes runs but never wins it all in the past decade. Goaltending is almost never the issue, with the biggest problem being those shining stars the fans of MSG love. They must show up this series as the capitals are well versed and will play good playoff hockey.

Carolina Hurricanes (x – 111 pts)

Why are they here?
The Canes are elite in every single aspect. They are a team with so much depth, so much going right in the best places. The addition of Jake Guentzel and Evgeny Kuznetsov are just icing on the cake for this squad. They lead the league in so many different metrics, it's hard to mention just one. Naming numbers does not do this team justice. The most notable stat for the Canes is their penalty kill , which sits at a league leading 86.4%
Matchup Notes:
There shouldn't be too many games for this team in their series against the New York Islanders. The Isles are not deep enough to compete with the constant four lines of speed, grit and skill that Rod Brind'Amour is commanding each night. They just need to keep playing the way they have been, and it will be smooth sailing for this round.
Biggest Crutch:
As mentioned, this team generally has no weaknesses. There is one spot where they may find struggles, and that is with goaltending. They have a good goalie tandem right now, but they both have been prone to injury, and the canes rely on their goalies just as much as any other aspect their team.

Florida Panthers (y – 110 pts)

Why are they here?
This team is another elite Eastern juggernaut. With last year's Stanley Cup final appearance this team is more ready than ever to go back and get the franchise's first ever Cup. The Panthers have the best goal differential in the league with +68 (268 GF – 200 GA). They also have the 2nd lowest GA with 200. This team happens to just get better on the road, with them being the best team in both of these categories in away games. One other reason for their appearance is stellar goaltending from their duo. They have the 2nd best SV% in the league with 91.80% of shots being saved.
Matchup Notes:
The Panthers have an extremely tough matchup with Tampa Bay. The Panthers on paper should have this series, but the Lightning squad never seems to taper away, only figure out another way to win more. The key to the Panther success is to play solid defense while being disciplined. If they start getting into penally trouble, it could mean that the best power play in the league will score, and they will score tons of goals with a red hot Kucherov.
Biggest Crutch:
This team is very well built and coached, with not many places to find flaws. If the Panthers manage to get a spell of bad goaltending, or bad injury luck on the defensive end, things can turn south very quickly for the cats. They have the forward depth to take a couple hits, but they cannot afford to lay off the gas when it comes to goaltending and defense, or else Tampa will find a way to walk all over them.

Boston Bruins (x – 109 pts)

Why are they here?
Who else expected this team to be this good this year? Not me; not a lot of people had thought the Bruins can be elite for another year while losing crucial pieces from last year's record-breaking team. The goalie tandem of Swayman and Ullmark continues to be the best in the league by far. This team is as deep as any other Bruins squad, with points distributed deep in the lineup. This team can be a threat when any line is out there and can be lights out when they need to be. Some notable stats are that they are 4th in blocked shot differential among playoff teams with +145 (1229 BF – 1154 BA) and are honestly not the very top of the league in any metric. This team is built on veteran experience and understanding the process, which is a good recipe for a good playoff hockey team. Even though they are not performing on any metric in the most elite way, they are just a very complete team that can win any series at any time.
Matchup Notes:
This is any hockey fans' dream, a round one matchup between two bitter rivals. The Bruins must get physical and quickly. The Leafs struggle in that department year after year, and it hurts them a lot when in matters. To win in this series, the Bruins must rely on their experience and goaltending to get past an offensive juggernaut of a Toronto squad.

Toronto Maple Leafs (x -102 pts)

Why are they here?
This is usual business for the Leafs, as they are no stranger to the first round of the playoffs. This year they were the 2nd best offensive team with a GF of 303. The offense is one the biggest reasons why the Leafs have so much success and a major reason for why they make the post season almost every year. Another major notable non offensive statistic would their 2nd best in the playoffs FO% of 53.44%. This team is good on offense but will need to be tight on defense to have a chance to go deep on a cup run. The goaltending is another notable part, but in a bad way. They have the 2nd worst SV% in the playoffs behind Tampa this season, but I think that Tampa will have no issues, making Toronto have a huge gap in goal.
Matchup Notes:
This is what all leaf fans have been waiting for, a down trending bruins team with a god-like Auston Matthews, if they can get hot at the right time, this team is unstoppable. The goals will come, but can they keep the puck out their own net well enough?
Biggest Crutch:
The Leafs are nothing without their stars. The players that have the biggest salaries must play like it, or else this offense-heavy Leafs team will be bulldozed over by a good Bruins team.

Tampa Bay Lightning (WC1 – 98 pts)

This team owes a lot of their success to Nikita Kucherov, who has single handedly put them into a playoff position. Kucherov is one of the best to ever lace them up , and he has many other HOF teammates that will be able to be elite come playoff time. This team means business, and they play like it. They struggled in the beginning without their star goalie, but they managed to hold their own long enough. Tampa is not the best team defensively; they are very good offensively. One great thing that comes with having so many elite players on one roster is the ability to have the best power play in the league, with a whooping 28.8%. This team will punish you for any mistakes and can beat you with speed when they want to.
Matchup Notes:
This is an extremely tough matchup for the Bolts, as the Panthers are very well versed defensively and slowing the play down. The key to success for Tampa is having Kucherov play his game, and for Vasilevskiy to play like his usual self. The Panthers will not be an easy opponent and will be a long series for both teams.
Biggest Crutch:
Andrei Vasilevskiy. Plain and simple, without him, this team is not deep enough or good enough to go far without him. He must stay healthy and maintain form for any hopes of a Cup run for the Bolts.

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New York Islanders (x – 94 pts)

Why are they here?
This team is here because of defense. They are the best team in the playoffs with Hit differential +368, and the best Blocked Shot differential of +352. This team is built on defense and goaltending.  They have a top-10 goalie tandem, which is supported by a very elite defensive core. Otherwise, this team is very lacking and can have a hard time getting going.
Matchup Notes:
They got dealt the worst hand out of any team with having to face Carolina in the first round. They must shut down the Canes for 4 out of 7 games better than the 'Canes do. This task will be incredibly difficult to complete with a lack of offense coming from the Isles. To win this series, they must get over the offensive incapability's and maintain defensive form.
Biggest Crutch:
The offense must show up. There is no way to win a hockey game by just playing defense. There is the saying that defense wins championships, and that quote is usually said by a team with an already good or above average offense. The Isles must find a way to consistently produce to go further in this year's playoffs.

Washington Capitals (WC2- 91 pts)

Why are they here?
This is a good question to ask in this case, why the hell are these guys here? They have a terrible goal differential of -37, worst of any playoff team, and 6th worst in the league. This team is here by winning so many 1 goal games, but how long can it last? How much does Ovi have left in the gas tank? This team is here by sheer luck and should be an easy matchup for the Rangers. They have goalie who can get hot and steal away games, but Lindgren would have to commit multiple highway robberies to carry this hole filled Caps roster.
Matchup Notes:
To win, this team must use their veterans and experience all the way to the maximum. This team has won before and know better than anyone else that any team can take a series. Ovi must be there to lead his team for what could possibly be the last time ever into the playoffs.
Biggest Crutch:
This team can fall apart in so many different ways that it is hard to list them all. They lack so many things that these playoff teams all have, like a solid defense, solid goaltending.

Thank you for reading and have a great rest of your day!

Twitter/X – @DH_staspup for any questions, corrections, or comments

Player Data sourced from NaturalStatTrick

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