21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Dobber Sports

2024-04-21

Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

1. The NHL Playoffs are here! For those with playoff drafts, there's still time to grab a copy of the 2024 Dobber Hockey Interactive Playoff Draft List! Ian Gooding put in tremendous work and it can be customized for individual leagues.

Secondly, the Dobber Hockey Experts’ Panel is on the site for perusal. See where the editors and writers sit on individual series, Cup finalists, and the Conn Smythe Trophy.

2. So, let’s get to the postseason. Let's quickly go series by series to give some thoughts on each matchup. Let’s start with the East:

New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes

This is one of two Eastern series that is lopsided and it’s heavily in Carolina’s favour. Prediction: Carolina in 4 (apr20)

Washington Capitals at New York Rangers

This is the other lopsided matchup. Prediction: New York Rangers in 5 (apr20)

Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston

Hello, old friend. As a Habs fan with friends that are mostly Leafs fans and family that are mostly Bruins fans, I win no matter the outcome. I love that for me. Prediction: Toronto in 6 (apr20)

Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers

This is a very interesting matchup because Tampa Bay led the league in power play goals per game while Florida gave up the second-most power plays per game to the opponent. If Florida’s penalty kill struggles at all, Tampa Bay could really tilt the ice in their favour on special teams. Prediction: Florida in 6 (apr20)

[Follow the link for Mike Clifford's full preview of both conferences]

3. Let’s move over to the Western Conference, as previewed by Alexander MacLean.

Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars

I think Vegas is going to be a formidable opponent here, and won’t go gently in any game or series, with the size, skill, and depth to take home a final win against any team in the West. Dallas is very strong on paper, but Jake Oettinger hasn't been quite his usual self this year, and they just haven't seemed to put it all together. My pick: Vegas in seven. (apr19)

Nashville Predators at Vancouver Canucks

I’ll acknowledge my bias here early, as one of the bigger Predators fans you will meet. That being said, Vancouver isn’t the pushover that many people are making them out to be. They have star power at every position, and playoff-ready depth at every position too. That being said, the Predators have been the better team in the second-half of the season. My pick: Nashville in six. (apr19)

Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets

This feels like the regular season success story vs the playoff-tested success story, and we have seen that play out often over the years. The Avs have to be the favourite here, and in any versions of the story where they lose, then it likely comes down to a chasm in how the goaltenders perform. My pick: Colorado in five. (apr19)

Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers

Yes, I’m writing off the Kings, whose first-half bubble popped, and they don’t have the star power or the goaltending to keep the Edmonton scorers in check. Last night's game aside as it was meaningless for the Oilers, they seem to have sorted out their goaltending and defense issues from earlier in the year. I don't expect this to be as long as it has been the last couple of years with the same matchup. My pick: Edmonton in five. (apr19)

[Follow the link for Alexander's full preview of both conferences]

4. I wonder if having the Coyotes saga finally come to an end with Thursday’s affirmative Board of Governor’s vote for their move to Utah is actually to this point a very underrated part in them finally turning the corner in the coming seasons. They have the prospect pipeline, they have a few solid pieces that make up an existing core, the option to try and attract a higher quality of free agents, and they have cap flexibility plus maybe even the ability to spend it now.

The Pacific (assuming that’s where they still are and that the divisions aren’t shifted much) has a couple of top teams in Vegas and Edmonton, but LA has some kinks to work out, and the Canucks aren’t much of a sure thing year to year. Anaheim isn’t quite ready to make the jump to playoff contender, so I’ll be looking to next year’s version of the Coyotes to add some spice to the playoff race. (apr19)

The last game of this iteration of the Arizona Coyotes resulted in a 5-2 Arizona win over Edmonton. Sean Durzi, Lawson Crouse, Matias Maccelli, and Liam O’Brien all scored while Dylan Guenther had a goal (PP) and an assist. (apr18)

5. Tim Stutzle was someone that was a target for me in redrafts this year around the pick 10-15 range. He disappointed fantasy managers a bit from there, though still finished with a respectable fantasy season. There is some optimism for him jumping back up next year though, as it sounds like he was dragged down this season by multiple lingering injuries. (apr19)

6. In addition to Frank Nazar scoring on his first shot just days after signing his ELC, now is the time that we do get to be excited about the next wave now that a lot of other top NCAA prospects are signing too.

For example, Bradley Nadeau, Jackson Blake, Cutter Gauthier, Lane Hutson and Gavin Brindley should all be available in Yahoo leagues by now. Hutson played over 20 minutes in both of his debut games this week, notching an assist and going minus-one in each.

At this point with where the Habs are, those kinds of stat lines from Hutson could become something of a norm. He has played almost exclusively alongside David Savard, who might end up being a regular partner for him next season too (or at least until the trade deadline when Savard is likely moved). That would bode well for Savard maintaining his slightly elevated production into next year. (apr17)

7. We did also have a couple more debuts from Brad Lambert, Nikita Chibrikov, and Cutter Gauthier on Thursday. Lambert scored his first NHL point, assisting on Gabe Vilardi's opening goal for Winnipeg. Lambert has a lot of potential going for him, but at this point it's just that, potential – and all the risk/reward that comes with that.

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Chibrikov, the 50th overall pick back in 2021, then one-upped Lambert with a go-ahead goal for Winnipeg in the third period. Neither player got a whole lot of ice time last night though, and it's likely both start out in the AHL next season. The five shots and eight minutes of power play ice time between them though was fun to see. Keep an eye on whether either gets any time in the playoffs this time around. (apr19)

8. As for Gauthier, he also recorded an assist in 15 minutes of ice time, playing a little further up the lineup with Alex Killorn and Leo Carlsson. That could even be a line going into next year, and they were even in shots and Corsi on the night against a much stronger Vegas team (although again, the game didn't mean much to them – if they won they played the Oilers instead of Dallas). Gauthier I expect to have a full-time role next season, and the three shots last night without any other peripherals probably gives us a good sense of the kind of stat line we might be able to expect from him next year. Something similar to Carlsson's rookie year, with a 40+ point pace, two shots per game, and only a few hits, PIMs and blocks sprinkled in. (apr19)

9. I want to highlight one of the earlier NCAA signings, too. Collin Graf was the big undrafted free agent NCAA signing, and now has a handful of games under his belt. He only has one point thus far while playing middle-six minutes on top of a decent dose of power play time (over two minutes per game). He’s playing with Luke Kunin and Klim Kostin, which isn’t exactly setting him up for success. There has been very little exposure to William Eklund, Thomas Bordeleau, or Mikael Granlund for Graf. Maybe the third line spot with some power play time is the best we can expect from Graf in the short term. (apr19)

10. Speaking of seasoned prospects, we won’t see Nikolai Kovalenko‘s debut until the playoffs at the earliest, but he could come in at some point as a black ace. Someone to keep in your back pocket as a real dark horse in the playoffs if you like the Avalanche, or for drafts in the fall. (apr19)

11. With Don Granato fired in Buffalo, we can try to look ahead through our now-useless eclipse glasses to get a faint picture of what might change for next season.

Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin are obviously the first fantasy priorities, and it is interesting to note that both were unluckier this season than last, but otherwise the underlying numbers look similar despite the obvious drop off in their actual scoring numbers. A big area for the drop off is on the power play, and those can really fluctuate year to year regardless of coaching. Overall, the Sabres scored on 16.6% of their power plays this season, which is a very low number for any team, let alone one with all the weapons available that the Sabres have. Expect some obvious correction next year.

I have had a soft spot for Peyton Krebs since his draft year, and I think this is going to be his best opportunity to jump up the lineup before Matt Savoie, Jiri Kulich, Noah Ostlund and others arrive. There are already seven top-nine spots accounted for, even before including Jordan Greenway (who stands to lose time) and the prospects.

Interesting to watch as well will be the goaltending splits. Granato leaned heavily on Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen this year, though Devon Levi is showing signs of NHL readiness (not for long stretches, but as a moderately used backup, certainly), and we don’t know if there will be anyone else brought in over the summer. UPL needs a new contract, and it seems unlikely that Eric Comrie will return. UPL might be a great albeit risky) buy earlier in the summer where there is still some uncertainty around the Sabres and whether he might be in line for over 55 starts next year, or less than 30. (apr19)

12. Jeremy Lauzon, the NHL's new record holder in Hits with 383, has been an amazing player to roster in fantasy leagues counting hits this year. With Nashville’s lineup next year though, I don’t know if he’s guaranteed consistent playing time. Something to keep in mind through the summer in case another GM wants to overpay for him. The year after Matt Martin set the previous record, he only dipped slightly to 365, but after that he tailed off mightily, in part due to injuries. The longevity of these high-peripherals players is another thing to keep in mind. Martin was 25 when he set the record, while Lauzon is turning 27 very shortly. Great if he keeps it up, but no guarantee. (apr19)

13. I just want to mention Jeff Carter‘s retirement. He finished his career with 442 goals and 409 assists, making him 1 of just 16 players with at least 400 of each since the 2005 lockout. From 2005-2017, he had 20 goals every year except 2006-07, managed one 80-point season, six 60-point seasons, and at least 200 shots nine times. He has two Stanley Cups, one Olympics gold medal, one World Junior championship, and one AHL championship. Just a very decorated career from a member of the famed 2003 NHL Draft. (apr20)

14. Marc-Andre Fleury signed a one-year extension with Minnesota and said 2024-25 would be his last season. For fantasy purposes, this is important because Filip Gustavsson has two years left on his deal and there is Jesper Wallstedt waiting for his chance. It appears he’ll have to wait at least another season before becoming just a regular backup goalie at the NHL level. (apr18)

15. A little tidbit on Dougie Hamilton, who said he was hoping to at least join his team if they were headed to the playoffs. Injury updates are near-impossible to come by during the offseason, so getting this note from him is important. It seems he should have a normal offseason of training, which is always good to see after such a lengthy injury. (apr18)

16. Quick hits: Nikita Kucherov got his 100th assist of the season. Kucherov is just the fifth player in NHL history to reach that mark, but the second to do it this week after Connor McDavid achieved the same. Kucherov is also the first winger to do it. Just a surreal, historic season from the future Hall of Famer.

Meanwhile, Auston Matthews did not get his 70th goal of the season, but he sure was trying as he landed 12 shots on target in Toronto's last game of the season. (apr18)

17. Despite a so-so season from the Blues as a whole, Robert Thomas had career numbers with 26 goals (previous high of 20), 60 assists (previous high of 57), 27 power play points (previous high of 22), and 170 shots (previous high of 115). He has truly turned not only into a high-end, two-way center, but a much more well-rounded fantasy option. It reminds me of Mark Scheifele, but with good defensive play. (apr18)

18. In Tuesday’s Ramblings, I went over some forwards to target for points-only playoff fantasy leagues. We didn’t touch on the top options like Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, or Artemi Panarin, so we’ll keep that same energy for today’s Ramblings. We will look at which defensemen to target outside of the top options like Cale Makar, Adam Fox, or Quinn Hughes. (apr18)

[Follow the link for the full analysis]

19. If the Red Wings had made the playoffs, they would have had some interesting goaltending decisions. At this point Alex Lyon would likely have been the game one starter, but if they lost, who do you go with for game two? Back to Lyon who got you here, the playoff “tested” veteran in James Reimer, or the guy who was your top goalie to start the year but has been injured for the last few months in Ville Husso. The Husso vs Lyon vs other newcomer also extends to next fall as well.

Husso was supposed to be a steadying presence in net this year, but across 17 starts he allowed at least two goals in every single one. His GAA was worse this season, but his save percentage was very close to last year’s number, while the Quality Start percentage also took a dip. As much as I love to look at goalies with a contract that are due for a bounce-back with teams on the rise, somehow Husso just isn’t exciting enough for me to make him a target for next year, especially after missing what amounted to almost the entire second half of the season. (apr17)

20. Seth Jarvis had an impressive breakout campaign: 33 goals and 34 assists, giving him 67 points on the season – a big step up from last year’s total of 39. His breakout has been fuelled by more opportunity. He averaged 18:45 per game after skating 16:12 a night last year. More important is his expanded power-play role. Last year, he managed just five power-play points, while seeing 40% of Carolina’s time with the man advantage. He’s enjoyed a 62% share this year and has 20 PPPs to show for it. (apr15)

21. The lottery luck was on my side this year and I got first pick in the Dobber Forums playoff pool. After thinking it over for a while I realized that Connor McDavid has to be the pick, regardless of who I think is actually going to win – I do believe Edmonton has a real shot, but they wouldn’t be my first bet if I was just putting money on a team. The fact that McDavid could score as many points as someone in the finals, even if he only plays two rounds is the deciding factor though.

Nikita Kucherov, Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Matthew Tkachuk, Sebastian Aho, Artemi Panarin, Jack Eichel, and David Pastrnak were the other considerations. I do see Vegas as one of the best value teams in the West, because even though they are a Wildcard team, they won last year, and their team is just as good this year (a return from Mark Stone would help in that regard too). For that reason, I’m loading up on Edmonton and Vegas in the West.

In the East, unfortunately I missed the boat on the top two+ players from each of the six real contenders (the downside to picking first), so I will likely push most of my chips in on the West (adding a few Predators for fun too) and then throwing down a few long-odd bets on the bottom-two in the East.

In this draft there are no position limits. However, if there were, then Cale Makar would enter the chat as well in the first round or two, with Quinn Hughes, Miro Heiskanen, Victor Hedman, and Evan Bouchard close behind. I am also very happy that I got Roman Josi a little later in the draft (along with Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist), since I think Vancouver is ripe for an upset due to their slower second half, the lack of cohesion since Elias Lindholm was brought in, and the health of Thatcher Demko. (apr17)

Reminder: Rick Roos’ monthly mailbag column runs next week and he is fielding a few more questions. To get yours to him, you can either private message "rizzeedizzee" via the DobberHockey Forums or send an email to [email protected] with "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line. No one does a deeper dive for you than Rick.

Have a good week, folks!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 23 - 13:11 PHI vs CHI
Nov 23 - 16:11 CGY vs MIN
Nov 23 - 16:11 L.A vs SEA
Nov 23 - 18:11 FLA vs COL
Nov 23 - 19:11 T.B vs DAL
Nov 23 - 19:11 CBJ vs CAR
Nov 23 - 19:11 OTT vs VAN
Nov 23 - 19:11 WSH vs N.J
Nov 23 - 19:11 MTL vs VGK
Nov 23 - 19:11 DET vs BOS
Nov 23 - 19:11 NSH vs WPG
Nov 23 - 19:11 PIT vs UTA
Nov 23 - 19:11 NYI vs STL
Nov 23 - 20:11 S.J vs BUF
Nov 23 - 22:11 EDM vs NYR

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
KENT JOHNSON CBJ
VALERI NICHUSHKIN COL
JOSH MANSON COL
DMITRI VORONKOV CBJ
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
JOHN GIBSON ANA
TRISTAN JARRY PIT
ALEXANDAR GEORGIEV COL
UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN BUF

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency SEA Players
19.2 CHANDLER STEPHENSON DANIEL SPRONG JADEN SCHWARTZ
17.6 JARED MCCANN ANDRE BURAKOVSKY MATTY BENIERS
17.5 EELI TOLVANEN YANNI GOURDE OLIVER BJORKSTRAND

DobberHockey Podcasts

Keeping Karlsson Short Shifts – Regicide

Jeremy and Shams are here to break down all the new injuries and update timelines as well. After all the injury news they close out the show covering all the cold Kings players giving actionable fantasy advice on each one. Lastly, they close out the show the latest hot Russian forward for Columbus that is only 1% rostered on Yahoo right now.

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