Ramblings: Canes, Bruins, Take Game 1; Nylander Out Game 1; Drouin Out Round 1 (Apr 21)
Ian Gooding
2024-04-21
After being away from the Ramblings for over a week, I'm back today. Big thanks to Brennan, Alex, and Mike for each taking on a day in my absence.
What I've been up to during this time:
Interactive Playoff Draft List: A fully customizable spreadsheet where you can fill out your own bracket and the projections are done for you. Or if you're not sure, go with the Dobber editors' picks. If you haven't already, order yours here!
Free NHL Playoff Box Pools: Want to set up a quick hockey pool, even if the playoffs have already started? Instructions and downloadable Excel spreadsheet here.
Experts Panel: 2023-24 Playoff Round 1 Predictions: Find out how the Dobber writing team expects the first round to play out here. We even make some early Stanley Cup Final predictions.
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The Stanley Cup Playoffs started on Saturday with two games, both from the Eastern Conference.
Hurricanes 3, Islanders 1 (Hurricanes lead series 1-0)
The panel is expecting this to be a short series, with a few writers even predicting a Carolina sweep. Are the Islanders getting enough respect? They managed to hang around in this game until Stefan Noesen scored the game-winning goal 3:44 into the third period. The Islanders outshot the Hurricanes 35-26 in this game, a sign that Patrick Roy's team might not go down so easily.
Evgeny Kuznetsov and Martin Necas each scored a goal and added an assist. Kuznetsov scored the first goal early in the first period on the power play. The man with the bird celebration has 30 career playoff goals and 68 career playoff points in 88 career playoff games, which is solid production. Even if he's been used in more of a secondary role with Carolina than he was in Washington, Kuznetsov brings proven playoff experience to the Canes.
Necas scored an empty-net goal late in the third period to seal the win for Carolina.
Brady Skjei recorded two assists for the Canes. He finished the regular season on a high note with assists in each of his last five games. Skjei also finished the season with 47 points, a career high and the first time he has ever reached 40 points in a season.
Frederik Andersen stopped 34 of 35 shots in the victory for the Canes. Since his return to the lineup in March, Andersen has a 9-1-0 record with a 1.30 GAA and .951 SV%. If he can stay healthy, Andersen could be in line for a long and successful playoff run. He is playing at a very high level right now.
Semyon Varlamov started for the Islanders, allowing two goals on 25 shots. Ilya Sorokin seemed like one of the handful of goalies that was a sure thing before the season, but Varlamov has posted better numbers this season and has quite honestly grabbed the starting job from him late in the season. Sorokin will probably be back as the starter next season for a whole bunch of reasons: contract length, term, age, and pedigree all jump to mind. Of note is Sorokin's 8×8 contract set to begin next season. Yet the Islanders also have the 35-year-old Varlamov on the books for three more seasons after this one. This could be more of a timeshare than you think going forward.
One other thing: When I wrote the Patrick Roy-to-Islanders Fantasy Take, I totally forgot that Roy was Varlamov's coach with the Avalanche. Varlamov had an outstanding 2013-14 season under Roy, posting a 41-win season with a 2.41 GAA and .927 SV%. Varlamov finished second to Tuukka Rask in Vezina voting. Since Roy took over as Islanders coach, Varlamov has posted an 8-4-2 record with a 2.43 GAA and .917 SV% (regular season only). Sorokin has an 11-8-3 record with a 2.73 GAA and .907 SV%. Not terrible, but not as strong as Varlamov.
Kyle MacLean scored the lone goal for the Islanders. He is currently on the Frozen Tools hot list, as he also finished the regular season with points in back-to-back games.
Noah Dobson returned to the Isles' lineup after missing the last three games of the regular season with an upper-body injury.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau did not play for the Islanders due to a lower-body injury.
I picked Carolina in 5, which was the average pick among the panel. I also predicted Carolina as the East finalist, edging out Florida in the Conference Final when I was making my own Playoff Draft List projections. There isn't an overwhelming favorite in the Eastern Conference this season (or the West, for that matter), but the additions of Kuznetsov and Jake Guentzel and the return of Andersen have improved the Canes enough where they might finally be able to get over the hump. I might be willing to give the Islanders more than five games against a different opponent.
Bruins 5, Maple Leafs 1 (Bruins lead series 1-0)
Jake DeBrusk scored two power-play goals and added an assist in the Bruins' win. He continues to have success against the Leafs in the playoffs, having scored eight goals in 15 career playoff games against Toronto. DeBrusk's point-per-game total plummeted this season compared to last season (0.78 PTS/GP to 0.5 PTS/GP), but it looks like he could have much more success in this first-round series.
Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy each contributed a pair of assists for the Bruins in the win.
In maybe a bit of a surprise, Jeremy Swayman was given the nod to start over Linus Ullmark. The playoffs traditionally haven't been the place for goalie rotations, but is there scientific evidence that leaning on one goalie is the way to go? The playoffs are a long grind, so finding a way to use both goalies could be beneficial. If Swayman is in fact the playoff goalie for the Bruins, he hasn't had many stretches of multiple consecutive games throughout his NHL career. For now, no issues, as Swayman stopped 35 of 36 shots he faced.
Here in Vancouver, this is a series that many hope neither team wins. But for Toronto, the third-period choice of commercial outro song Same Old Song and Dance by Boston natives Aerosmith seemed highly appropriate. I don't recall the Leafs and the Bruins facing each other in the playoffs many times through the years until recently, but 1959 (the last time the Leafs knocked the Bruins out of the playoffs) is an awfully long time ago.
I picked Boston in 6. I'm a bit surprised that the majority of writers picked the Leafs (I know a few are from the GTA). I thought the Bruins had the clear advantage with more stable goaltending – no matter who they turn to. Meanwhile, Ilya Samsonov's struggles during December were well documented. He has obviously put that behind him as the season went on, but Game 1 (4 GA on 23 SA) is his third consecutive Really Bad Start dating back to the regular season. Another slump would mean that Sheldon Keefe would need to turn to Joseph Woll quickly. Otherwise, it's another first-round exit for the Leafs and a summer of more second-guessing in Toronto.
Also notable was the fact that the Leafs were without William Nylander for Game 1. Nylander did not miss any regular-season games with this injury, so the fact that it was a game-time decision means that it might be something minor. None of the rest of the Leafs' big four (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares) registered a point in this game.
Bobby McMann was also out of the lineup for the Leafs.
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The rest of my series picks:
Rangers in 5 – The only way the Rangers lose is if Charlie Lindgren steals the series the way he stole a fantasy championship away from me (more on that another day). Not a single one of our writers picked Washington to win this series.
Panthers in 6 – I get the vibe that Florida can handle another long playoff run, even though I'm not usually big on teams that went to the final the season before. The Stanley Cup Playoffs are a grueling marathon. Finally getting past their cross-state rivals will be a huge psychological boost for the Panthers.
Jets in 7 – This could be the best series of the entire playoffs. The Avalanche have Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar. But they also have issues in net. Alexandar Georgiev has one quality start in his last six games. Winnipeg has potential Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck. Don't sleep on the Jets.
Canucks in 6 – If the goalie matchup is even and the Quinn Hughes/Roman Josi matchup is even, then Vancouver's forwards have the clear edge in this series. Especially up the middle with J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson, and Elias Lindholm. Go Canucks Go.
Stars in 6 – Vegas with all hands on deck is a tough matchup. However, the Stars were my preseason Cup favorite (look it up here), so I have to stick with them throughout the playoffs. I don't see a real weakness on that team except for maybe an elite-level gamebreaker.
Oilers in 7 – I think this series is more on the long end that the short end. These two teams know each other well, since this will be the third season in a row they've faced each other. The Kings also play the type of game that could force a lot of close, low-scoring games.
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Jonathan Drouin is expected to miss the entire first-round series against Winnipeg due to a lower-body injury. Drouin had left Thursday's game against Edmonton with a lower-body injury, and no update was given immediately after the game. Drouin was the Avalanche's fourth-leading scorer during the regular season (56 PTS in 79 GP), and he was both a regular on the top power play and the top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen.
With Drouin's injury, Artturi Lehkonen seems like the right player to move up to both the top line and the top power play. Lehkonen might be a good option to turn to in playoff pools, as he finished the season with nine points in his last nine games. Lehkonen also has 20 points in 27 playoff games for the Avs over the past two seasons.
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As expected, Mark Stone has been cleared for contact during practice. At this point, the Golden Knights aren't even trying to hide the fact that they are using LTIR to rest Stone for the playoffs. If there's something playoff-related I would 100% put my money on today, it would be that Stone will be in the lineup for Game 1. Lead pipe lock of the week.
Despite having an appendectomy recently, Alex Pietrangelo practiced on Saturday. It sounds like he'll be ready for Game 1 on Monday.
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Enjoy the playoffs! Follow me on X @Ian_Gooding and Threads.