Wild West: Revisiting Pre-Season Western Team Rankings
Grant Campbell
2024-04-22
I always like to look back and see how some of my articles pan out over time, especially if there is some sort of ranking or goal. Before the 2023-2024 season, I ranked the 16 Western Conference teams in order with the following tiers: (here and here)
- Out of the playoffs
- On the bubble
- In the playoffs
- Contenders
Out of the Playoffs
#16 pre-season ranking – Chicago Blackhawks – (Actual finish #15; 23-53-6 record with 52 points)
I had a feeling that the distinction of being the worst team in the West would come down between Chicago and San Jose. Chicago ended up with a .317 winning percentage and had a league worst 179 goals in 82 games (2.18/game).
Unsurprisingly, Connor Bedard led Chicago in scoring with 22 goals and 39 assists in 68 games after missing 14 games with a broken jaw. Unfortunately, he had very little support on offense.
#15 – San Jose Sharks – (#16; 19-54-9 – 47 points)
The Sharks were a bit of a disaster in 2023-2024, scoring just 181 goals in 82 games (2.21/g) while allowing 331 (4.04/g). Teams aren't going to win many games having a negative goal differential of 1.83 per game.
San Jose must be encouraged by the progress of William Eklund (80-16-29-45) and Fabian Zetterlund (82-24-20-44), but it is hard to envision that they will be that much better in 2024-2025 unless they add quite a few quality players in free agency.
They will hope that Thomas Bordeleau, Henry Thrun, Shakir Mukhamadullin and perhaps Will Smith and Filip Bystedt make the roster and make an impact in 2024-2025.
#14 – Anaheim Ducks – (#14; 27-50-5 – 59 points)
The Ducks took a bit of a disappointing step back in 2023-2024 but they finished where I thought they would. They had added Alex Killorn and Radko Gudas in free agency and were hoping for progression from Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry, Mason McTavish and Jamie Drysdale. Zegras played just 31 games with six goals and nine assists and there are rumors that the Ducks might be looking to move him.
Anaheim scored just 204 goals in 82 games (2.49/g) and gave up 295 goals (3.60/g).
Terry regressed slightly with 20 goals and 34 assists in 76 games, while McTavish had 19 goals and 24 assists in 64 games. Drysdale was traded to Philadelphia with Cutter Gauthier coming back.
Anaheim has a bevy of young players who saw some NHL games in 2023-2024 and could make a difference in 2024-2025. Pavel Mintyukov was an impressive rookie with 28 points in 63 games while Leo Carlsson had 12 goals and 17 assists in 55 games. Olen Zellweger ended up in 26 games and had nine points. Cutter Gauthier got into one game at the end of the year and had an assist.
The Ducks are on the rise.
#13 – Arizona Coyotes (now Utah) – (#13 – 36-41-5; 77 points)
The Coyotes took a step forward even with their 13th place standing. They were 18 points clear of Anaheim and just four points behind #12.
Obviously, the big news is that they are moving to Utah (Salt Lake City) and will begin play there for 2024-2025.
Logan Cooley ended up with 20 goals and 24 assists in 82 games as a rookie while Dylan Guenther was impressive in the 45 games he played, posting 18 goals and 17 assists. They saw progression from Jack McBain, Sean Durzi, Matias Maccelli and J.J. Moser.
Barrett Hayton struggled with injuries and played just 33 games with 10 points. The 23-year-old fifth overall pick from 2018 is entering a pivotal year in Utah.
If the turmoil of moving to a new city isn't too much, Utah could become a bubble playoff team in 2024-2025, putting them a year ahead of where I thought they were.
#12 – Seattle Kraken – (#12 – 34-35-13; 81 points)
The Kraken were 46-28-8 in 2022-2023 and it was expected that they might take a step back in 2023-2024. I didn't expect them to take two.
The biggest issue for Seattle was scoring goals with just 217 in 82 games (2.65/g).
Matty Beniers ended up with 15 goals and 22 assists in 77 games, which could be classified as the classic sophomore slump.
Seattle had disappointing outputs from Andre Burakovsky (49-7-9-16), Jaden Schwartz (62-13-17-30), Yanni Gourde (80-11-22-33) and Kailer Yamamoto (59-8-8-16).
The good news is that Shane Wright got into eight games and looked a lot more NHL ready than in 2022-2023. He should be a regular in 2024-2025.
The emergence of Joey Daccord (50GP, 91.6 save%) puts him ahead of Philipp Grubauer going into next year.
On the Bubble:
#11 – Winnipeg Jets – (#2 -52-24-6; 110 points)
This was my first big whiff of pre-season rankings as I had the Jets in turmoil in 2023-2024 with the future of Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck up in the air and the departure of Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois, I thought that the Jets were done. How wrong I was.
Scheifele and Hellebuyck both signed eight-year contracts and instantly stabilized the franchise and kept their window open for a few more years.
Scheifele led the Jets in scoring with 72 points in 74 games, but the story for the Jets was their team defense and probable Vezina-trophy winner Hellebuyck. He and his partner Laurent Brossoit allowed just 199 goals in 82 games (2.43/g).
The Jets of 2023-2024 remind me of the 2022-2023 Seattle Kraken but with better goaltending.
#10 – St. Louis Blues – (#9 – 43-33-6; 92 points)
The Blues finished under .500 in 2022-2023, so this past season was much better. The biggest progression came from Robert Thomas (82-26-60-86) and Jake Neighbours (77-27-11-38).
It was a good sign for the Blues that Jordan Binnington had a bounce back year with a 91.3 save percentage in 57 games, matched by Joel Hofer in 30 games.
They will hope that Kevin Hayes, Brayden Schenn and Justin Faulk rebound next year.
The Blues have some very good prospects who we could see in the next year or two in Zachary Bolduc, Dalibor Dvorsky, Jimmy Snuggerud, Otto Stenberg and Theo Lindstein.
#9 – Minnesota Wild – (#10 – 39-34-9; 87 points)
The Wild have gone from 53 wins in 2021-2022, to 46 wins in 2022-2023, to 39 this past year.
Kirill Kaprizov had a very good season (especially the 2nd half) and ended up with 46 goals and 50 assists in 75 games. He is signed for two more years, so that is the window for this current roster.
Marco Rossi (82-21-19-40) and Brock Faber (82-8-39-47) had very good seasons with Faber being a top-three Calder finalist for sure.
I thought the Wild would get back to 40 wins this year and be close to the playoffs. They finished with 39.
Minnesota was able to get some NHL games for prospects Liam Ohgren, Marat Khusnutdinov, Daemon Hunt, Adam Beckman and Jesper Wallstedt. Marc-Andre Fleury re-signed for 2024-2025 so it might mean that Wallstedt does one more year in the AHL.
Having Jared Spurgeon play just 16 games didn't help things. The hope that is that Minnesota's captain will be healthy for 2024-2025, but he is 34-years old now.
#8 – Vancouver Canucks – (#3 – 50-23-9; 109 points)
I didn't have the Canucks finishing third in the West, but I did have them on the bubble with a caveat –
they would need all of their core to maintain play from 2022-2023 and Thatcher Demko to be healthy and play very well. J.T. Miller (81-37-66-103) was better, Quinn Hughes (82-17-75-92) was excellent and Demko was very good (albeit a two-month injury) as he still managed 35 wins in 51 games.
Brock Boeser (81-40-33-73) had a rebound season, Dakota Joshua (63-18-14-32) emerged as a third-line player and the Canucks improved their depth in both the forwards and on defense.
Nils Hoglander (80-24-12-36) had a resurgence with 24 goals and played hard most nights, while Vasily Podkolzin (19-0-2-2) spent most of the year in the AHL and didn't seem to progress offensively.
The Canucks have prospects who we could see in 2024-2025 including Aatu Raty, Elias Pettersson (Defense), Jonathan Lekkerimaki and Arturs Silovs in goal.
#7 – Nashville Predators – (#6 – 47-30-5; 99 points)
It didn't look like Nashville was going to be close to making the playoffs at the All-Star break, but they were one of the best teams in the NHL after the break and got in with points to spare.
I thought that they would still need a very good year from Filip Forsberg (82-48-46-94), as well as progression from Luke Evangelista (80-16-23-39), Cody Glass (41-6-7-13), Thomas Novak (71-18-27-45) and Juuso Parssinen (44-8-4-12). They got a great year from Forsberg and saw Evangelista and Novak emerge as regulars. They had disappointing years from Glass and Parssinen.
The addition of Ryan O'Reilly (82-26-43-69) turned out to be a great one and Gustav Nyquist (81-23-52-75) had a career year. Roman Josi (82-23-62-85) was great once again and could be a Norris Trophy finalist.
The Predators have a good young prospect pool with Joakim Kemell, Fedor Svechkov, Zachary L'Heureux, Tanner Molendyck and goaltender Yaroslav Askarov.
I think the Predators can improve from within over the next three or four years.
In the Playoffs
#6 – Los Angeles Kings (#7 – 44-27-11; 99 points)
The Kings made the playoffs, but they were closer to the bubble than I thought they would be. With the acquisitions of Pierre-Luc Dubois (82-16-24-40) and Cam Talbot, I thought the Kings would take another step, but the Kings struggled at times.
Viktor Arvidsson (18-6-9-15) would have helped them in the 64 games he missed with injury, but he might make up for that absence by being a difference maker in the playoffs.
Adrian Kempe (77-28-47-75) was the surprise leader in points over Anze Kopitar (81-26-44-70) and Kevin Fiala (82-29-44-73), but is also a testament to how well balanced this group of forwards is.
Quinton Byfield (80-20-35-55) had a bit of a breakout season but has more to give as he faded a little in the second half.
Trevor Moore (82-31-26-57) surprised with a 30-goal campaign and led the Kings in goals.
Cam Talbot played 54 games and won 27 with a save percentage of 91.3 while backup David Rittich played 24 games with 13 wins and a save percentage of 92.1. The Kings received very good goaltending.
Jordan Spence (71-2-22-24) became a regular while Brandt Clarke (16-2-4-6) and Alex Turcotte (20-1-3-4) saw extended games this year. Clarke could be a regular in 2024-2025.
#5 – Calgary Flames – (#11 – 38-39-5; 81 points)
The Flames narrowly missed the 2022-2023 playoffs and where I saw a team who underachieved and would certainly improve in 2023-2024, the reality was that it was based off a hope of rebound years from Nazem Kadri (82-29-46-75), Jonathan Huberdeau (81-12-40-52), Andrew Mangiapane (75-14-26-40), Jacob Markstrom (48GP, 90.5, 23W) and Mackenzie Weegar (82-20-32-52).
While Kadri, Markstrom and Weegar did rebound and have good years, Huberdeau and Mangiapane did not and Elias Lindholm struggled before being dealt.
It was pretty clear that the Flames were not going to make the playoffs, so they unloaded Lindholm, Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev.
They did have some positives with Yegor Sharangovich (82-31-28-59), Martin Pospisil (63-8-16-24), and Connor Zary (63-14-20-34). They also got in some NHL games for Dustin Wolf, Matthew Coronato (34-3-6-9) and Jakob Pelletier (13-1-2-3).
I'm not sure where the improvement will come from in 2024-2025.
#4 – Dallas Stars – (#1 – 52-21-9 – 113 points)
The Stars had 47 wins and 108 points in 2022-2023 and I underestimated how good the addition of Matt Duchene (82-25-40-65) would be, as well as how much some of their younger players would progress.
Wyatt Johnston (82-32-33-65) has emerged as a leader on this team and he is still only 20-years old. Thomas Harley (79-15-32-47) took a decent few games in the playoffs last year and turned them into an excellent regular season.
Logan Stankoven (24-6-8-14) tore it up in the AHL with Mavrik Bourque (1-0-0-0). Both could see regular NHL roles next year, with Stankoven's being pretty much assured.
One of the most impressive aspects of the Stars coming in at number one in the West was that Jake Oettinger was just average through 54 games, winning 35 times and posting a save percentage of 90.5. It is scary what this team could do moving forward if he plays with a 91.5 or better save percentage.
The line of Jason Robertson (82-29-51-80), Roope Hintz (80-30-35-65) and Joe Pavelski (82-27-40-67) still leads this team, but the Stars have two other lines who can provide offense and take the pressure off of those three.
Miro Heiskanen (71-9-45-54) might not be a 70-point defender but he is still one the best in the league.
Contenders:
#3 – Vegas Golden Knights (#8 – 45-29-8; 98 points)
On their way to the Stanley Cup last year, Vegas won 51 games and had 111 points in the regular season. I thought there might be some letdown, but that they would still win 45 games and get to 100 points, posing a huge threat in the playoffs.
Even though they finished eighth in the West in 2023-2024, I think this roster might be better than the 2022-2023 roster when fully healthy – but staying healthy will be a challenge.
They added Tomas Hertl (54-17-21-38), Anthony Mantha (74-23-21-44) and Noah Hanifin (80-13-34-47) to an already loaded roster.
Mark Stone (56-16-37-53) is miraculously cured just in time for the first game of the playoffs and will lead the forwards along with Jack Eichel (63-31-37-68).
The defense will be led by Shea Theodore (47-5-37-42), Alex Pietrangelo (64-4-29-33) and Hanifin.
Adin Hill is healthy again (35GP, 90.9, 19W) and Logan Thompson (46GP, 90.8, 25W) might also see some opportunity in net.
Vegas is all-in once again for the Stanley Cup in 2023-2024.
#2 – Colorado Avalanche – (#4 – 50-25-7; 107 points)
Colorado had 51 wins and 109 points in 2022-2023 and finished with one less win in 2023-2024 – so still a very good season. I had them getting back to 50 wins and being a favorite for the Stanley Cup.
I thought they had improved their lineup with the additions of Ross Colton (80-17-23-40), Miles Wood (74-9-17-26) and Jonathan Drouin (79-19-37-56).
Colorado added at the trade deadline as well, acquiring Casey Mittelstadt (80-18-39-57), Yakov Trenin (76-12-5-17), Brandon Duhaime (80-5-8-13) and Sean Walker (81-10-19-29).
Nathan MacKinnon (82-51-89-140) should win the Hart trophy in my opinion and has been healthy all year.
Cale Makar (77-21-69-90) had an off-year in some people's minds, but still ended up with a career-high in points. I think he should be a finalist for the Norris Trophy.
The issue for the Avalanche was and could be Alexandar Georgiev in goal. He struggled at times, with a save percentage of 89.7 through 63 games, posting 38 wins. We saw his struggles on display in game one of the playoff series against Winnipeg when he let in seven goals.
#1 – Edmonton Oilers – (#5 – 49-27-6; 104 points)
After the first two months of the season, things weren't looking great for the Oilers and it looked like they might not make the playoffs. Patience paid off and they righted the ship and have been one of the better teams in the league since then. I thought they would get to 50 wins again.
I stated that the team hoped for the Evan Bouchard (81-18-64-82) we saw in last year's playoffs to return in 2023-2024, and he certainly did.
Connor McDavid (76-32-100-132) and Leon Draisaitl (81-41-65-106) were their usual selves after the first month and Zach Hyman (80-54-23-77) exploded for 54 goals.
Warren Foegele (82-20-21-41) hit the 20-goal plateau for the first time and Ryan Mcleod (81-12-18-30) had a good year.
The Oilers added Adam Henrique (82-24-27-51) and Sam Carrick (77-10-6-16) at the trade deadline.
In goal, Stuart Skinner (59GP, 90.5, 36W) managed to turn his year around and has been much more consistent in the second half, while Calvin Pickard (23GP, 90.9, 12W) has been decent as a backup.
The Oilers hope for much better goaltending in the playoffs than they received in 2022-2023.
Other than Winnipeg and Calgary, I was pretty close overall in my pre-season rankings. Overall, I underestimated the Western Conference a little as I thought there were just three contenders, when in fact there are five or six legitimate ones now.
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Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you'd like me to look at please message or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.