Analytics Advantage: The Western Conference Playoff Teams

Stas Pupkov

2024-04-26

Welcome back to the follow up to last week's article, with this week being about the West and what they bring to the table. We are about 2-3 games into each series, and it is shaping out to be a very entertaining playoff race this season. Let's dig into the West!

Dallas Stars (z – 113 pts)
Why are they here?
The Stars are the top dogs coming out of the West boasting an impressive +64 goal differential , which is 2nd best in the entire league. This Dallas team is built well with incredible offensive depth, with a lot of scoring spread throughout the lineup which is crucial in the playoffs. One thing that this team gains from this depth is the best faceoff % in the league with a 54.01 FO%. The Stars have struggled at home, so being down 2-0 to Vegas already is not the end of the world for them: In away games, this team is magnificent leading the west in almost every single important statistic, (1st in pts, 1st in GF/GP, 1st in Goal Diff, 1st PP%, 1st PK%) which is just incredible to see such dominance away from home.
Matchup Notes:
The Stars must play their best game against Vegas, as it is probably the worst team to face in the first round in the West. The key to coming back from this 2-0 deficit would be to play their game, and to let Jake Oettinger dominate like he has before. This team can dominate on the road, they just need to shut down the league's best however they can.
Biggest Crutch:
It is common that the key to victory can inversely be talked about as the key to defeat, Jake Oettinger is this type of player. If he can put the stars on his back, they will be unstoppable, but if he begins to show any signs of weakness, this seasoned Vegas team will tear the Stars apart.

Vancouver Canucks (y – 109 pts)
Why are they here?
We have heard it all season long, unsustainable shooting % this or this team is just lucky, look at their PDO. This is all just an excuse as the Canucks are the real deal, and they are here to stay. They might still be the luckiest team in the league with a PDO of 102.9%(100 is the avg, 1% is a decent amount on this scale[97.5-102.9]), but this doesn't ignore the fact that they have a deep, fast, hardworking offense, with an above average top four defense corps, this team's backbone is Thatcher Demko. They are above average in most stats, with nothing league leading (good or bad) other than PDO and SH% which is 2nd best in the league. A 1-1 tie in this series is scary, as the news the Demko is out for series has been announced, this is going to be an extremely hard battle to fight now.
Matchup Notes:
With Demko being out, this team must find a way to keep the puck out of their net. They must bear down and play a more defensive style to help out Casey DeSmith. They must figure out a way to beat Saros or get through the seasoned veteran defense.
Biggest Crutch:
Well it was Demko, but now I would say it is the star players, who are just not showing up to the games at all. They must turn up the pace or else they will be upset by the structurally sound Predators. This team must find a way to adapt to the loss of their franchise goaltender.

Winnipeg Jets (x – 108 pts)
Why are they here?
This team is another deep Western team with elite goaltending, which seems to be a theme for the top teams in the league. They boast a lineup chockful of veterans who know how to play consistently and have the experience to play a hardworking, defensive style. This defensive prowess has led the Jets to a league leading GA with 199(2.43 G/GP). Another stat which can explain this league leading GA, it is another area which the jets are dominant, which is SV%. They have the league best 92.27%. This team is built for a deep run, they have all the depth which can score during the playoffs, and the defensive system to shut down any of the league's top offenses.
Matchup Notes:
The Jets do not have a single player above a point per game, which can be an issue when they are having issues with scoring. The lack of a clear superstar (other than Hellebuyck) might be what holds them back, as you cannot win against the Wests top team when their superstars are hot. The Jets need to find a way to slow down the pace of the game against the Avalanche, as they are headed back to Colorado with the series split one to one.
Biggest Crutch:
If they lose Hellebuyck, they will struggle severely. We are already seeing how the Avalanche can mostly outscore their defensive problems, but can the Jets do the same? I have said goaltending is the biggest crutch for a lot of the teams these playoffs, and I know it is repetitive, but there is much truth to it. Many of these teams are built so deep and so well that they can afford to lose some skaters, but the loss of a goaltender for most teams is a fatal loss.

Colorado Avalanche (x – 105 pts)
Why are they here?
The Avalanche are no strangers to the playoffs, as they have found themselves in the Playoffs for the past six years. They have one of the league's best players in Nathan MacKinnon, who had an absolutely monster season with 140 pts (51 G, 89A), and another player above 100 in Rantanen (42G, 62A).  They are the best offensive team in the league, scoring 304 goals at an incredible 3.71 G/GP pace, with another notable stat being a top five PP% of 24.5%. This team is another beast at home, being the best offensive team at home in most categories (4.22 G/GP, the most PPG at 41 and a league leading SH% of 12.6%).
Matchup Notes:
This is an elite matchup of a slow defensive methodical team (Jets) and a fast-paced, highlight reel, booming offensive juggernaut who will not be stopped. It has been an extremely fun series to watch so far , and the main issue for the Avalanche is that they cannot be slowing down and play at the Jets pace. They will be destroyed slowly but surely because of how deep the Jets are if they decide to slow down the pace of play, but the Jets are definitely having a difficult time with the speed of the Avalanche at the moment. With the series headed back to Denver, the Avalanche have to be ready to use the fuel from the home crowd, along with some of the elevation, to ground the high flying Jets.
Biggest Crutch:
This Avalanche team cannot let their high pace of play fall through, which stems from the defense being able to contain the puck, contain rushes, and move it to the quicker players, so that they can spend less time in the Defensive zone. Players like Valeri Nichushkin, Jonathan Drouin, and Casey Mittelstadt must play like they are expected too, If these depth players disappear or get injured, it will be hard for the three headed dragon( Makar, MacKinnon, Rantanen) to carry them all the way back to the Final.

Edmonton Oilers (x – 104 pts)
Why are they here?
The Oilers had early season struggles like no other, with it almost seeming like they went back to the era of wasting McDavid and the playoff window that comes with him. Early season goalie issues had run the Oilers into panic mode, but it all changed when they fired Jay Woodcroft. Since firing Woodcroft, they went 46-18-5, scoring the 2nd most in the league with 259 GF at a 3.75 G/GP pace. This team is on fire when all cylinders are firing, and even better when McDavid and Draisaitl are playing at the top of their game.           Zach Hyman is like McDavid's final option, but also usually the final option because of Hyman's elite finishing ability and his offensive IQ around the net is up with some of the league's best.
Matchup Notes:
The Oilers must figure out how to keep the game at a high pace while still being able to dictate the play and do what they do best, which score like nobody else can. The goalies must be able to support the team, but since they do not have a definite star goalie, the defense has to support whichever goalie Woodcroft decides to put out there.
Biggest Crutch:
Goaltending and defense are the key to success for the Oilers, as they have zero to little offensive gaps in dept. The gameplan heading into LA should be to break through the Kings defensive setup, while also maintaining their defensive structure which is something they struggle with a lot.

Nashville Predators (WC1 – 99 pts)
Why are they here?
Nashville is here because of the entire group effort following the cancellation of their beloved U2 concert, this team has been by far the best in the final stretch the season. They at some point had an 18-game point streak, which helped skyrocket them into a wildcard spot. This team is built well top to bottom, maybe not as high of a ceiling as the other top team, but they are well coached, well versed, and play a serious brand of playoff hockey. They do not have many notable stats, they are in the middle of the pack in most areas.
Matchup Notes:
The Predators have a formidable opponent in front of them, but it is going to be a lot easier because of Demko being out. The key to victory for this team is to have a strong defensive presence, as Juuse Saros can hold his own in net. The offensive side of the game is interesting too, as they have some good chemistry and are speedy and hardworking, which are very good playoff qualities to have.
Biggest Crutch:

The Predators must be able to show up on offense, they have solid goaltending and defense which can hold its own if they both support each other. This team has a very good chance now that Demko is out , they have made it to Final before, they know what it takes. Yes, this is not the same team as the earlier Cup run, but some of the core pieces remain.

Los Angeles Kings (x – 99 pts)

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Why are they here?
The Kings are a solid team in the west, who have found themselves extended their cup window, riding out the final years of Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty. This team is nothing like the teams from the early 2010s Cup runs, they are a young inexperienced team that struggles at times with many basic things. They have a top-5 defense in the West, with the 4th lowest GA in the league at 173 GA. Their bread and butter are defense, and with that comes the  4th best PK% in the league as well.
Matchup Notes:
The key to victory for the Kings will be obviously shut down Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl , but more so control the pace of the game using physicality and size to beat this offensively skilled Oilers team.
Biggest Crutch:
This team has a very delicate scoring setup, and sometimes goals are hide to come about for this Kings team. They have only eight players above 40 pts, the scoring will have to come from the star players.

Vegas Golden Knights (WC2 – 98 pts)

Why are they here?
They are the reigning Cup champs, and they have 10 players above 40 points. This team is as deep as gets and they have both strong goaltending and strong defense. They added lots of star power at the deadline, which didn't even seem possible, but they did it anyways. This team is elite at everything in the playoffs, their regular season stats do not tell the full story. Mark Stone missed much of the end of the season, along with other players. This team will continue to dominate if all remains the same. They are the hardest team to critique, or even praise. They are built for the playoffs, with so many players returning from their previous year team. The stats are middle of the pack for most areas, but this is because of injuries and Vegas knowing that they are not regular season champions, but playoff competitors.
Matchup Notes:
The Golden Knights will see much more success if they just keep doing what worked last year, they were elite defensively, and pounced on pucks and scored when it mattered. They have what it takes to repeat in my opinion, the well be quite easy for them if nobody gets injured.
Biggest Crutch:
The Golden Knights do not have one main crutch, it's more of them being so well built that
 many things must go wrong for the Knights to begin losing. If they lose a major defenseman, and a goalie, this team could have massive struggles battling through that adversity.

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Nov 21 - 19:11 OTT vs VGK
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Nov 21 - 20:11 STL vs S.J
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Nov 21 - 21:11 EDM vs MIN

Starting Goalies

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JASON ROBERTSON DAL
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL
DECLAN CHISHOLM MIN
JAKE WALMAN S.J
KIEFER SHERWOOD VAN

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SEBASTIAN COSSA DET
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD S.J
YAROSLAV ASKAROV S.J
IVAN FEDOTOV PHI

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency NYR Players
24.4 VINCENT TROCHECK ARTEMI PANARIN ALEXIS LAFRENIERE
20.1 MIKA ZIBANEJAD REILLY SMITH CHRIS KREIDER
19.4 KAAPO KAKKO WILL CUYLLE JONNY BRODZINSKI

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