Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

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Zooming in on players aged 25 and younger, here is the breakdown of Top 100 playoff scorers so far by year drafted:

2022: None

2021: None

2020: Quinton Byfield, Alexis Lafreniere, Seth Jarvis, Anton Lundell, Dylan Holloway

2019: None

2018: Evan Bouchard, Quinn Hughes, Andrei Svechnikov, Jack Drury, Martin Fehervary

2017: Cale Makar, Miro Heiskanen, Martin Necas, Gabe Vilardi, Jason Robertson, Mikey Anderson, Casey Mittelstadt

Note: stats mentioned do not include today's games (April 27).

This pattern is less about the strength of respective classes and more about which teams made it into the off-season, but still, several top members of the 2020 class have been having a particularly notable impact in this year's playoffs.

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Quinton Byfield (LAK)

The youngest player in the Top 100 is 21-year-old Quinton Byfield, who has four points (all assists) over his first three games—a total that ties him with Quinn Hughes, among others. Byfield has taken a significant step forward this year and has been a vital member of the Kopitar line, adding speed, physicality, and visionary playmaking.

Here he is with a sweet, sweet pass through traffic to Drew Doughty in Game Three:

Quinton Byfield passing needs to be talked more. Look at HOW he threaded the needle to Doughty

Just an amazing pass #GoKingsGo pic.twitter.com/0T43lgIhju

— Joseph (@HockeyJoseph10) April 27, 2024

He has also been a factor physically in the Edmonton-LA series so far, raising the ire of Oilers fans with a couple questionable hits on Connor McDavid:

Quinton Byfield's hit on Connor McDavid pic.twitter.com/NrF8g4jH6R

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) April 25, 2024

pierre-luc dubois takes a run at evan bouchard, quinton byfield hits connor mcdavid hard into the boards, and the kings put themselves back in the penalty box. pic.twitter.com/utYIp0cnvh

— zach (@zjlaing) April 27, 2024

It looks like we can expect him to provide about a hit per game during the regular season, which adds to his fantasy appeal in multi-cat formats, but he has taken that part of his game to a new level so far with eight hits over the first three games. While the hit in the first clip was late and the second from behind, it is clear that Byfield is asserting himself physically and is not afraid to go head-to-head with the best player on the planet.

The most exciting part about watching these 2020 first-rounders coming into their own is that each of them has had ups and downs in terms of their fantasy value. Byfield seemed as "can't miss" as they come, and we knew he would need a longer runway than most given his size and age, but the first couple years after he was drafted were tough nonetheless. I invested a great deal to acquire him in two of my leagues, and his perceived value dipped noticeably for a while there.

His four-year plunge in star potential (73% → 29%) wasn't exactly relaxing.

Seth Jarvis

It's easy to forget, but the same thing happened with Jarvis when he put up average totals in his return to the WHL as an overager, declining almost half-a-point per game versus his Draft Year. He then made a big splash as an NHL rookie (40 points in 68 games) but then seemingly took a step backwards in his second year (39 in 82) and wasn't really rosterable in redraft leagues.

But then Jarvis hit his 200-game Breakout Threshold halfway through 2023-24 and boy did he break out: 67 points in 81 games signals his arrival as one of the most dangerous scorers on the Canes and in the league, period.

He is a dual threat on offence who does not cheat for scoring opportunities, registering a balanced impact across the board during the regular season.

These would be incredible results for any player, let alone a 22-year-old. That level of defensive impact while still putting up big offensive totals is a scary combination for opposing teams. And while defensive prowess in a forward can be a red flag in fantasy because it can limit offensive opportunities, Jarvis is seeing time both shorthanded and on the top PP unit against New York.

His deployment will be something to monitor moving forward, however. He started the series stapled to the hip with Sebastian Aho at even strength as usual, but he has been playing down on the third line lately with the Jordans (Staal and Martinook) in a more defensive capacity. That didn't seem to slow him down, though, as he opened the scoring in Game 4 by cleaning up a rebound in front:

Seth Jarvis opens the scoring for Carolina. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/noiZp29944

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) April 27, 2024

Although Patrick Roy's Islanders managed to barely avoid elimination today with a win in double overtime, the Canes have come in like a wrecking ball and look like one of the teams to beat this year, and Jarvis has been a bit part of that.

He also has one of the slickest goals scored so far in this year's playoffs. It was such a nice shot that it deserves two different angles:

Seth Jarvis rocks pic.twitter.com/ohqUnCRkhX

— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) April 23, 2024

What a freaking shot, Seth Jarvis 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/Rhg9qWYHpx

— Carolina Hurricanes (@Canes) April 23, 2024

Anton Lundell

As I write this, the Panthers are pushing to eliminate their in-state rivals, the Lightning, which would be a huge accomplishment. Lundell has chipped in with a couple assists so far, plus a healthy dose of physicality (10 hits in 4 games) and a dominant 54% win rate at the faceoff dot.

He too has been a difficult fantasy own over the past few years. There are valid concerns that he will become the next Jordan Staal—an elite defensive forward who never cracks 50 points—and he appeared to turn in a mirror image of 2022-23 this year, unlike Byfield and Jarvis who took significant steps forward statistically. His fantasy value has always been difficult to ascertain because this defensive billing has long been at odds with his prolific production and steady development since 2020.

While he has aged out of the Hockey Prospecting model at this point, I suspect this year's flatlining progression in terms of counting stats would yield an even poorer NHL equivalency and star rating than he had in his D+3, making him harder and harder to roster, even in keeper formats.

But looking under the hood, Lundell actually had some notable accomplishments in 2023-24, including at the faceoff dot, where he won just shy of 55% of his draws. That places him a tier below the very best in the game (roughly 57-60%) but still definitely above average amongst centers. And while he exactly maintained his 37-point pace from last year, he pulled his plus-minus from zero to +19 while improving across the board in terms of play-driving (55 → 56 CF%) and offensive involvement (54 → 62 IPP).

His improvement has been particularly noticeable on the power play. While he was only involved in 42% of the PP goals scored with him on the ice last year, that number has risen to over 71% this year—star-level territory. He is featuring on Florida's second unit so far in the playoffs but playing on the top line at even strength with Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk in Sam Bennett's absence. That line boasts a 56.5 Corsi For %, meaning they are generating quite a few more scoring chances than they are allowing.

This top-line audition suggests that Lundell has the scoring chops to play in a top-six role. If he can ever work his way out of the third line on this loaded Cats team, he could prove me right that he will be a more prolific producer than Jordan Staal, his most common comparable.

His hands and vision were on full display with this slick feed to Verhaeghe:

LET'S GO HOME BABYYYYYYYYY 🚨 pic.twitter.com/hXAGzAaEbk

— Bally Sports Florida: Panthers (@BallyPanthers) April 24, 2024

Alexis Lafreniere

Talk about declining fantasy assets. Anyone who sold the farm to get their paws on Lafreniere back in 2020 has NOT been having a good time for the past several years. His star potential has been in free fall (62% → 19%), and he appeared to be settling into a hard-working checking line role despite being a prolific producer in junior and former first-overall pick.

His 200-game Breakout Threshold came and went about halfway through last year without the corresponding 25% increase in production that we typically see from about 80% of players. But in 2023-24, he improved nearly 50% on his career best to date (39) points, posting a star-level 57-point season. He also started shooting the puck a lot more often (1.7 → 2.6 shots/game) and his hit total was cut in half (1.74 → 0.87 hits/game), suggesting that he had possession and was dictating play a lot more often.

Like Lundell, he still doesn't make the cut for the top power play unit but is featuring on the team's top line with Artemi Panarin at even strength. Here he is in Game 1 forcing a turnover that led directly to a slick Panarin goal:

What a play by Alexis Lafreniere pic.twitter.com/Pt2QzUSolS

— Jonny Lazarus (@JLazzy23) April 21, 2024

And again in Game 2:

Look at Lafrenière getting into the dirty areas and fishing pucks out. He's looked fantastic these first two games#NYR
pic.twitter.com/huQ1geXFPa

— Will Cohen (@WillMCohen) April 23, 2024

Looks like he just needed some time to develop combined with a meaningful shot in the top six! It will be interesting to see how far past 60 points he can get next year. With a hit and over 2.5 shots per game on top of the points, that is a juicy-looking fantasy line.

Dylan Holloway (EDM)

With only 18 points over his first 89 NHL games, Holloway has not had the best start to his NHL career—at least as far as his fantasy owners are concerned. Every player taken in the first round in 2020, except for Shakir Mukhammadulin, Jacob Perreault, Brendan Brisson, Mavrik Bourque, and Ozzy Wiesblatt has more NHL points than Holloway, so the impatience from fans is certainly warranted. His speed/skill combo seemed like a perfect complement for McDavid when the Oilers pounced on him halfway through the first round in 2020, but the young forward has rarely seen time with Edmonton's Big Two.

That trend has unfortunately continued so far in the playoffs: Holloway is averaging just over nine minutes a game with minimal PP exposure, playing alongside Sam Carrick and Mattias Janmark on the fourth line at even strength. Despite the poor deployment, however, he still managed to bag a couple huge goals in Game 2:

First career #StanleyCup Playoff goal ✅

Second career Stanley Cup Playoff goal ✅

Have a night, Dylan Holloway 🤩 pic.twitter.com/oJkGsroTbB

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) April 25, 2024

While I would still preach caution in terms of valuing Holloway in fantasy, more big goals like that plus some exposure to Edmonton's stars (like what happened this year for Lafreniere) and Holloway could still emerge as a solid fantasy asset over the next couple years.

A best-case scenario would see him turn in a point-per-game season ala Kailer Yamamoto but with more consistency. Remember, though, he is a couple years behind the other four players profiled above, so he will still need another season and a half to hit his BT.

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Thanks for reading! Follow me on X @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.