Although it's not even been seven months, it feels like a lot longer since the puck dropped on 2023-24. With the regular season having come to an end, it's time for housekeeping in the form of revisiting my 15 Fearless Forecasts for 2023-24 to see how I did, plus – and arguably more importantly – to use the benefit of hindsight to determine what lessons can be learned based on the outcomes.

For anyone who missed the column when it was posted I'd encourage you to review it before reading on, to see the reasoning behind each prediction. Also, I will say again that these are termed "Fearless Forecasts" for a reason, as they are not your garden-variety "safe" predictions. In short, I try to swing for the fences with each one, and historically that has meant a lot of major misses. I'm not trying to give myself an excuse for ones where I was WAAAYYYYY off base, but I am saying that as per usual I did not go into this expecting to get the vast majority of them correct. Yes, that is always the hope; but if/when it doesn't happen, I use the opportunity – as I will here where applicable – to learn from my mistakes and try to become hopefully even better at making these Forecasts in the future, while also helping you and your fantasy teams in the process.

With all that out of the way, let's get onto the outcomes and lessons learned. For each Forecast, I'll give myself a letter grade, as if I was back in school. So if I was "wrong" about a prediction but not totally off base, I might get a C or even a B, while if I was wrong but not completely in left field, I might get a mark in the D range. Otherwise, if I nailed it, I'm getting an A, whereas if I blew it, I'll get a big fat F. Once I get through covering all the results, I'll review the votes from the Forum Poll that accompanied the Fearless Forecasts, to see if your instincts were better, worse, or similar to mine.

FORECAST: Andrei Kuzmenko will score at a 50 point or lower pace

RESULT: He finished at a 52 point pace

GRADE: B

LESSONS LEARNED: When numbers overwhelmingly suggest regression, they're usually right. But there is a limit in terms of how far someone will fall if they get their fair share of opportunities.

Is B too generous? I say no, since 52 represented a 30% drop from a scoring pace of 74, and it took Kuzmenko posting 17 points in his last 11 games to defeat this forecast. I stand by the numbers I cited, as they did nearly predict what happened. Never in my more than a decade of writing for this site had I seen data which so conclusively pointed toward a player doing markedly worse, so this is not something we'll likely see again for a while, if at all. It does underscore that the more the numbers/metrics make someone's production look unsustainably better or worse than it should have been, the more reliable they are. Of course nothing is foolproof, and numbers/metrics never tell the entire story; but they always need to be considered in assessing players.

What does the future hold for Kuzmenko? Tough to say. His lack of consistency might be difficult for a team to stomach, as he had a stretch of ten games without a point, not to mention more than a handful of healthy scratches. Then again, his ability to ignite like he did at the end of this season does say a lot. But he still isn't shooting much, although with Calgary that did seem to improve. Yet his IPPs, which do factor in his Calgary time, are downright lousy, plus he was even more reliant upon PP scoring. I think he's unlikely to be able to put together a better season and, if not, might have a tough time finding a new deal when his contract expires after 2024-25. I'm also prepared to have him prove me wrong. We'll see if I make another prediction for him come 2024-25.

FORECAST: Ilya Sorokin will become the first goalie since 2014-15 to have a double-digit shutout total

RESULT: He had just two shutouts, a career low even counting his first season when he played 22 games

GRADE: F

LESSON LEARNED: There just might not be any "sure thing" goalies in today's NHL

In the original column I cited Sorokin's amazing early career numbers; yet he turned in a season well below expectations and far inferior to his prior stellar efforts. In truth though, his team didn't do him many favors, as his GSAA was still double digits positive yet his GAA was the second highest of the 298 other instances of GSAA's above 10.00. Dating back to 2000-01, just two other goalies played 50+ games with a GAA as high as Sorokin yet a higher SV% than his still not terrible .908.

What this reinforces is we're seemingly in a new era where no goalie is great year in, year out. Yes there are some who rightfully belong in the upper echelon; but even they have ups and downs. Look at Sergei Bobrovsky, a two-time Vezina winner who had several poor seasons before and after each one, including 2022-23, but then looked amazing again in 2023-24. It's as if all you can expect for goalies in today's NHL is……….the unexpected.

Does this mean we should all adopt the Zero Goalie philosophy, or forego drafting goalies until well after others have reached for them? My view is draft those who are likely to get you wins, and hope they also have decent peripherals. But on draft day, if you're pondering whether to pull the trigger on a goalie, do give it more consideration than you might've in the past, and perhaps wait longer.

As for Sorokin, he is still far too young to be on the decline, so I'd be wary of writing him off. But that having been said, there certainly have been examples – Roman Cechmanek and Niklas Backstrom come to mind – of goalies who, like Sorokin, debuted in the US at a later age than most, found early success, but then fizzled. Time will tell who the real Sorokin is. His season did help underscore that the new normal for goalies is the abnormal.

FORECAST: LA will have no skater score at over a 75 point pace, but 9+ score at a 50+ point pace

RESULT: Adrian Kempe scored at an 80-point-pace, six skaters scored between a 50 and 75 point pace, and one at a 49 point pace

GRADE: B

LESSON LEARNED: Teams that seem like they're not built for individuals to thrive do usually end up having no shining stars

Yes, that was only a total of eight even if we count Kempe and the 49-point pacer, so I wouldn't have technically been correct even if they'd fit in the range; but I still consider this a pretty accurate forecast. The reality is in today's NHL most teams either rely heavily on top players or follow LA's blueprint of trying to spread offense around and win by making it difficult for teams to be able to successfully defend against all its scoring lines. With LA making the playoffs, we could see more of this from other squads in 2023-24. Be careful not to expect too much from players on teams where no one gets tons of ice time or is head and shoulders about the rest of the team, although as I said when making the prediction, these same teams are nice in terms of finding mid-range talent for deeper leagues.

FORECAST: Buffalo will make the playoffs despite no goalie with both 25+ wins and a sub-3.00 GAA

RESULT: They missed the playoffs, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen won 27 games with a GAA of 2.57 and a SV% of .910

GRADE: D

LESSONS LEARNED: The goalie position is fickle, and it's not easy to be a playoff team these days

Midway through the 2023-24 campaign this looked like it could come to fruition in that the Sabres did not have anyone stepping up to seize the reins in net, but still clung to playoffs hopes. Yet ironically as their playoff hopes dwindled, UPL began to shine. Still, given where Devon Levi was drafted versus UPL in fantasy, if this prediction was not going to come true most would've figured it'd have been Levi who shined. Yet he showed his age so to speak and was sent to the minors for seasoning. So let this be yet another reminder that with most goalies, seemingly the only certainty is uncertainty.

As for the Sabres, they laid an egg big time, with their offensive firepower doused. What their fate drove home is it takes a lot to go right for a team to make the playoffs, especially when they don't have as many veterans with playoff experience. In short, the team went through growing pains, with UPL able to emerge but the rest of the squad languishing.

FORECAST: Timo Meier and Evander Kane will both produce at a 55-point pace or lower

RESULT: Meier scored at a 62 point pace and Kane at a 47 point pace

GRADE: B (the average was less than 55!)

LESSONS LEARNED: If someone is a clear misfit on a team, it usually doesn't turn out well

Admittedly it has since emerged that both were playing hurt this season. Still, much like what occurred with Kuzmenko, it took a late season scoring burst from Meier (24 points in his last 21 games) to elevate him above the 55 point pace level. And Kane was a dud from essentially start to finish.

What happened? They did not fit within their team's blueprints. Meier's SOG rate was way down, as was his ice time and PP scoring. Kane was in the bottom six more often than not, and hardly sniffed any PP time. Both are examples of players who bring a lot to the table on paper, but only if they're put into circumstances that allow them to succeed. In Kane's case, he needs to be a focal point, and engaged, whereas with Meier he has to be able to go full throttle and throw anything and everything on net, which is something he can't do well with Jack Hughes, who himself is a shoot first player, nor with Nico Hischier, who is more of a controlling, two-way center. I still see both as risky owns, although with each of them disappointing this season the price to obtain them in draft or trade might be low enough to get proper value.

Let their 2023-24 campaigns be examples of situations where players who have talent and proven results still might not deliver due to the situation in which they're placed. This can manifest in other ways as well, such as when a team has a defense-first coach as had been the case for the Islanders for many years, throttling Mathew Barzal and Noah Dobson. Or if a defenseman is forced to not play on his natural side. Or if someone who likes to play a physical game, and, in doing so, draws a lot of penalties, is made to tone things down. If situations look like they won't be conductive to success, oftentimes they indeed are not.

FORECAST: At least one of Jamie Drysdale and Scott Perunovich will score at a 55+ point pace

RESULT: Their COMBINED scoring paces didn't even add up to 55

GRADE: F

LESSON LEARNED: Opportunity, on paper, does not always translate to reality despite logic suggesting that it should

Going into this season, I felt both had the chance to make a major mark with their respective teams. In fairness, Drysdale got hurt then traded, but Perunovich was frequently a healthy scratch and then failed to put together any sustained momentum. In short, they didn't step up despite circumstances existing which ostensibly should have allowed them to shine.

What this tells us is just because something seems like it's poised to occur doesn't mean it will, especially when it comes to predictions regarding players who, in truth, had not come close to making any sort of a mark previously. Yes, every season there are breakout players, like Evan Bouchard and Noah Dobson, who seize upon opportunities and shine; however, in their cases they were far more experienced. With those like Drysdale and Perunovich, who were much greener, teams are less willing to hand over the keys to the kingdom, or, if they do, less willing to give them a very long leash. In short, opportunity does not create as many stars as talent, and that will never change.

FORECAST: Connor Bedard will score at a pace either above 90 points or below 55 points

RESULT: He scored at a 74 point pace

GRADE: D

LESSON LEARNED: When you mix elite talent and lousy circumstances, they cancel each other out

Bedard's IPPs, secondary assists rate, and other metrics show that even as a rookie he was elite. But the reality is he was surrounded by what was essentially a glorified AHL team. So what occurred was placing Bedard, a player who arguably did have the talent to produce at a 90+ point pace right out of the gate, into a situation where most in his shoes would've had a tough time even producing at a 60 point pace. In the end, his production understandably landed right in the middle.

What it emphasizes is for most NHLers their circumstances can and do have an effect on how they fare. Look at the goalies who found success for LA this season – would they have fared as well in another system? Probably not. Then there were the aforementioned LA forwards, some of whom arguably could've scored much better had they played for a less balanced system. This works both ways, and awareness of it will allow you to find hidden gems who stand to benefit from their circumstances, while not overpaying for those whose circumstances will hinder their ability to shine to their true ability.

FORECAST: Jack Eichel will score at a 100+ point pace

RESULT: He scored at an 89 point pace

GRADE: C

LESSONS LEARNED: A player who gets hurt nearly every year and plays in a system that does not focus on one player over the rest, will have a tough time being a superstar. Also, 100 points is a lot.

I do wonder if he'd have had a shot at this if he stayed healthy. Then again, banking on Eichel to not get injured is unwise. And that is meaningful, since of the 118 instances of a player scoring at a 100+ point pace dating back to 2000-01, and excluding the 2019-20 and 2021-22 seasons where it was not possible for someone to play all 82 games, 68 missed five or fewer games. So the ability to produce at a 100+ point pace does correlate, a good bit more often than not, with the ability to stay healthy over the course of the entire season.

Also, let's realize that 118 instances translates to about five per season. And of those five, usually there are a few who find themselves in the list often. In fact, of the 118 instances, just 18 accomplished the feat just once. Banking on Eichel to do so for the first time, and given his injury history, was a taller order than I thought, not to mention that fact that going into 2023-24, Vegas had just two players in its history average better than a point per game in a season, with the highest being Mark Stone's 91-point-pace in 55 games in 2020-21. Long story short, if the deck is stacked against something happening then banking on it occurring is likely a losing proposition.

FORECAST: Connor McDavid will have more games with 5+ points than with zero points

RESULT: McDavid had 12 games with zero points, versus only three with 5+

GRADE: D-

LESSONS LEARNED: Having the capability to do something is a lot different than having all the dots able to connect for that something to occur, and even the most elite players have nights off

Based on early playoff returns, I should've had this be a prediction for the postseason, not the regular season. Still, as elite as McDavid is, there were 12 nights when he failed to hit the score sheet. And yet he was still the most consistent scorer in the NHL! Also, this just in – five points is a lot. Yes, McDavid has the talent to go supernova several times during the season; however, a lot has to go right for a player to tally five points, especially since that usually means the game is well in hand for his team and, in turn, he might play less, making it more difficult to pile on points. Let's also not forget that sometimes opposing netminders are seeing pucks like beach balls, such that no matter who is on the other team they will have an uphill battle in getting any points.

This was another prediction where in hindsight I feel like I "talked myself into it". Or to put it another way I figured McDavid had just produced his best ever season and if anything should be able to build upon it, and how better to do so than by accomplishing a feat like this. Rather than using logic and numbers to land on a prediction for McDavid, I looked at a player and tried to find something that I thought he could do which was worthy of a fearless forecast. Although that fault of mine might not translate to fantasy as much as some of these other forecasts, it does emphasize that you need to look at your players objectively and not envision things which are unrealistic.

FORECAST: Rasmus Dahlin will score at a 100+ point pace

RESULT: He scored at a 60 point pace

GRADE: F

LESSONS LEARNED: Just because something extraordinary happens doesn't mean it now becomes a new normal, and very talented players still can experience growing pains

When I saw that Erik Karlsson crossed the 100-point barrier in 2022-23, and, coupled with all the great seasons by d-men of late, I figured someone else would follow in his footsteps. What I should have realized is extraordinary things are extraordinary because….well…they're not ordinary. Look no further than Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov becoming the first players in over 30 seasons to hit the 100-assist mark, and Auston Matthews nearly hitting 70 goals for the first time in almost as long. But guess what – in the interim we had superb talents like Sidney Crosby and Joe Thornton, neither of whom came close to 100+ assists, and even the great Alex Ovechkin never lit the lamp 70 times in a season. In short, don't expect the unexpected, as doing so is a recipe for disappointment.

As for Dahlin, perhaps a rising tide did lift his boat in 2022-23, and, in fairness, a sinking boat lowered his this past season. I figured he was oozing with talent, and ready to build upon his 2022-23, which, let's not forget, saw him above a 90-point-pace before getting hurt. Still, even though Dahlin has more than 400 games under his belt, he did just turn 24. What that means is he might not be ready to peak as yet. So I think I got a bit ahead of myself in seeing him as a player to essentially do something historic.

FORECAST: Sean Durzi will score at a 55+ point pace

RESULT: He scored at a 44 point pace

GRADE: D+

LESSONS LEARNED: Basing predictions upon layered assumptions is not likely to work, and when players are traded sometimes it doesn't mean they're primed to break out

In Durzi I saw a player who I felt had been bubbling beneath the surface, stuck behind Drew Doughty in LA. And in Arizona I saw a team that had a fourth quarter of 2022-23 that saw them put up a goals per game rate that would've made them a top ten team if they'd done so for the entire season.

What happened in 2023-24? Arizona was in the top half of the league in goals per game, and Durzi did receive the most favorable deployment of all Coyote blueliners. Still, that was not enough to lead to him finishing at a 55+ point pace. Why not? Because he wasn't as great as I made him out to be. His IPPs were low and his secondary assist percentage high. Simply put, he was good but not great, and maybe I should've paused to consider more that the Kings basically let him walk. Yes, they got a pretty nice return and, in the process, made room for Brandt Clarke when the time comes; however, if Durzi was likely to explode, would he have been dealt? Of course teams can and do trade away players who make them live to regret their decision; but in most cases, they know more than we think we do, even though we might think we know a lot.

FORECAST: William Eklund will score 35+ goals if he plays 65+ games

RESULT: Eklund had 16 goals in 80 games

GRADE: D-

LESSON LEARNED: Predicting significant success for an unproven player on a bad team is unwise

Here I think I saw what Erik Karlsson did and figured that Eklund, a highly touted prospect who had looked good in limited action, could put the team on his shoulders and thrive. But San Jose was as bad or worse than expected, and only veterans Mikael Granlund and Anthony Duclair thrived.

In truth, rookies really do tend to need favorable environments to succeed. Go back above and see what I wrote about Connor Bedard. Yes, bad teams can and do have fantasy worth players, with the Sharks being an example in 2022-23 with Karlsson and this season with Granlund. Those two were veterans, and that is not a coincidence. When projecting the production of rookie skaters, be wary of pinning huge hopes on those who'll be toiling for terrible teams.

FORECAST: Mattias Maccelli will score at a 45-point-pace or less

RESULT: He scored at 57-point pace

GRADE: D-

LESSONS LEARNED: One season does not a career make, especially a rookie season; and IPPs do matter

In Maccelli, I saw a player who scored at a rate that went quite far against the grain or someone who shot as infrequently as he did, plus had such high IPPs as a rookie. To me, it screamed unsustainable. But Maccelli went out and nearly doubled his SOG rate, while still having solid IPPs, and even fared better in terms of secondary assist rate. In short, he turned a successful rookie campaign into an even better sophomore season.

Not only did I fail to account for the very real possibility that Maccelli would improve, but I ignored IPP, a stat upon which I – rightfully, as proven here – normally place great importance. I just figured Maccelli's IPPs were a perfect storm of sorts, when in reality they were a prelude to him being a successful player. If you're going to rely upon a stat in assessing players, it almost always makes sense to do so across the board, versus selectively.

FORECAST: Tage Thompson will lead the NHL in goals

RESULT: He had a mere 29 goals in 71 games

GRADE: F

LESSONS LEARNED: Auston Matthews is a special player, and be careful in focusing too much on one stat

When I saw what Thompson did last season as a center, like many of you I thought perhaps he could be the next Auston Matthews. After all, he too was a sniping pivot, and he was breaking out at the right time to suggest even better things were in store. What I failed to pause to realize is Matthews is a truly special player, and Thompson's 2022-23 was not enough to put him in the same echelon. We all like to draw player comparisons; however, if we're too quick and too optimistic in doing so, we won't be correct very often.

Also, I put a lot of stock in the fact that Thompson scored as many goals as he did in 2022-23 despite hitting 17 posts and crossbars, and pointed to how the best of the best in the NHL tend to also hit a lot of points and crossbars. What it meant was that yes indeed Thompson was dialed in last season; but it didn't put him in the same league as those others, most of whom found themselves on that list nearly every season. Although I have pointed to crossbars and posts data in several instances to predict the breakouts of players like Jack Hughes and Elias Pettersson, it might be better at predicting a breakout of a budding superstar that has yet to occur, more so than of a player who already did quite well becoming a perennial superstar.

FORECAST: Blake Wheeler will have the highest scoring pace of any 2023 UFA who plays 60+ games

RESULT: He had a 32-point scoring pace (Matt Duchene had the highest 60+ game pace at 67 points)

GRADE: F

LESSONS LEARNED: Banking on older players finding the fountain of youth is not a blueprint for success, especially when they're not paid so much as to force their team's hand

In Wheeler coming to the Rangers I saw a perfect opportunity for him to step onto the top six and either shine alongside Mika Zibanejad or Artemi Panarin, and perhaps even wrest a PP1 spot away from Chris Kreider or Vincent Trocheck. Instead, Wheeler had trials with Zibanejad, didn't produce, and then toiled for most of the season in the bottom six as a non-factor.

Could this have worked? Yes, as it did with Joe Pavelski in Dallas. But Pavelski had not seen his numbers drop like Wheeler's did before he arrived in Dallas. Plus, Pavelski was locked into a PP spot, and, upon his arrival in Dallas, was earning many times more than Wheeler, who, at a paltry $0.8M cap hit and inked for just one season, was a low risk signing that New York made which turned into low reward. With him being paid so little, it was easy for them to not keep giving him chances. In the NHL, money matters, and makes it easier to relegate someone if they're not performing up to par.

************

Okay, so let me go back and see how I did. Carry the one….add there…..oh yeah, I DIDN'T GET A SINGLE FORECAST RIGHT! What can I say – I was way off base. Yes, some of these were quite bold and a few were near misses; but to have not gotten even one correct, that leaves a lot of wounds for me to lick.

Will I be any less ambitious next year? Nope; but I might think twice about making forecasts where I turn data into a forecast – that is, just because a conclusion can be possibly drawn from certain data doesn't mean it will happen. I have to really look at the totality of circumstances that are likely to exist. I still do believe in the numbers, and readers of my columns know that I'm definitely not off the mark to this extent on a week to week basis. I just have to remember that bolder forecasts do not mean abandoning sound data and logic.

Last but not least, let's see how you voted in the accompanying poll. The top five vote getters were Buffalo playoffs and goalies, Eichel 100+ pace, Maccelli at 45 or lower pace, Wheeler top UFA scoring pace, and the LA 50-75 point pace. So you did latch onto among the few that I didn't miss by much, but also one of my big whiffs in Wheeler. But in all, I'd say your instincts were better than mine, which does make sense, since it's the voice and opinions of many versus that of just me.

Best of luck to those of you in playoff pools. Be sure to keep reading my columns over the summer, as I'll pick myself up, dust myself off, and be back next week with regularly scheduled programming.

Questions for Mailbag Column

It's never too early to start sending me mailbag questions, whether about your newly draft teams or just fantasy inquiries in general. To get yours to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.