Ramblings: Stamkos’ Situation; Calder Finalists; Canes Advance; Leafs Live On & More (May 1)

Alexander MacLean

2024-05-01

One of my friends asked me if I thought Steven Stamkos was going to retire. To me it seems like a ridiculous notion, but I can see where that discourse has come from. For a player in his mid-30s, who has won two cups, played a lot of hard hockey over the last few years, had a few tough injuries, and made more than he needs to be able to live comfortably for the rest of his life, the question is fair at this point. However, Stamkos is only 34 (on the right end of the "mid-30s" range) and just finished a point-per-game, 40-goal season. There is lots left in the tank, and he either has the freedom to choose where he wants to play, or he has the freedom to ask for whatever contract makes sense for him and the Lightning, and they can run it back one more time for another competitive season.

Odds are that he's sticking with the Lightning, and I would bet both him and General Manager Julien BriseBois know that, so they can wait and see what the cap situation looks like after taking care of some other business and then fit him in around that. Similar to Thornton signing those one-year deals in San Jose. The team sorted out the rest of their offseason plans, and then gave Thornton whatever was left.

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This year's Calder finalists are Connor Bedard, Brock Faber and Luke Hughes. All three are deserving of the recognition here, and there were many very deserving candidates including Pyotr Kochetkov, Connor Zary, and others.

Next seasons for each are going to be fun to watch. Connor Bedard might have a little more support on offence with a healthy Taylor Hall, and maybe one or two of Lukas Reichel, Oliver Moore or Frank Nazar making the team full-time next year. Bedard scored at a 74-point clip this past year, and his best comparable at this point might actually be Auston Matthews and not Connor McDavid. Matthews put up 69 points in his rookie season, before putting up seven straight point-per-game seasons between then and now, culminating in his recent 69-goal campaign. McDavid had an 87-point-pace in his first year, and it was much more assist heavy than Matthews. With Bedard's shot, we have to think that his goal to assist ratio is going to close closer to even over the next few years, with a line next year that might look something like 35G, 45A, and 80Pts in a full season.

For Luke Hughes and Brock Faber, the uncertainty of them retaining top power play duties all season is what confounds any projections for them. They both posted 47-point seasons that saw multiple defencemen from their teams go down with long-term injuries. The Devils lost Dougie Hamilton early and dealt with many injuries to the rest of the D-core, also seeing Simon Nemec get some runs as well. Hamilton, Hughes, and Nemec could all be viable top-power play options in future years, so there's no guarantee that Luke gets the top unit time with his brother Jack Hughes.

In Minnesota, the Wild lost Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon with severe injuries. Faber's competition for power play time evaporated by mid-season, as Spurgeon missed the second half of the year, and Calen Addison was shipped to San Jose. With both Faber and Spurgeon healthy for next year (on top of whoever else may be added) it's also unclear how much opportunity Faber will receive as a sophomore.

Odds are that Hughes will score more points by virtue of being a more offence-focused defenceman, but Faber having less competition works in his favour as well. The sophomore slump is a real thing, but a floor of 40 points is a safe expectation of these two for us to take into drafts next fall.

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I try not to read too much into initial reports like this, but any kind of hint that we could have Matvei Michkov to the NHL earlier than anticipated has to be noted.

Not much actionable at this point, but something to keep in the back of your mind.

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Auston Matthews missed game five for the Leafs with an illness, and the team turned to Joseph Woll with their star out and the season on the line. Two early goals in the first held up until three periods later when the other Matthew from Arizona (Matthew Knies) extended the Leafs' season by at least another game.

If Woll can go on a bit of a run here, then he could really give himself a leg up going into training camp in the fall. All three of Toronto’s other NHL goalies are all UFAs this summer, so Woll being treated asa backup option or a platoon to whoever may be brought in gives management a very different approach this summer.

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Three minutes into last night's game it seemed like the Islanders were playing their last match of the season. Brock Nelson, Mat Barzal, and Ryan Pulock stepped up with two points each to at least make it seem like there was a chance it wouldn't end, but alas the Canes are just too deep of a team and took home the 6-3 win. Multi-point efforts from Evgeni Kuznetsov, Brady Skjei, and Seth Jarvis made the difference. Even though the Rangers swept the Capitals in round one, the Canes look like the team to beat in the East.

Back on October 14th, Frederik Andersen allowed five goals against the LA Kings, and that was the last time that he allowed more than three goals in the regular season – a stretch of 14 appearances. He then held the Islanders to three goals or less for their five-game series. We mentioned Kochetkov earlier, and while he is a good goalie as well, what Andersen is doing this year is putting his season into context too, as someone that is a good goalie but also playing behind a very good team.

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The World U18s aren't something that I often catch much of, because the first round of the NHL playoffs takes precedence, but because this year's tournament is over in Finland with game coming through the early and middle parts of the day here in North America, it has been a lot easier to follow along. It has been especially noteworthy this year with many top draft options for the 2024 draft playing, and we have also seen huge impacts from young players like James Hagens (2025 Draft Eligible) and Gavin McKenna (2026 Draft Eligible). Hagens had a ridiculous three goals and three assists yesterday to close in on Nikita Kucherov's all-time scoring record for the tournament, and he still has three games to play. Not to be outdone, Gavin McKenna scored six points of his own and is chasing some records for his 16-year-old age group as well.

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There were two coach firings since my last Ramblings, with Dave Hokstol out in Seattle, and Dave Quinn out in San Jose. This could be a big deal for the fantasy values of Oliver Bjorkstrand and Jared McCann, who were both 60-point players this past year despite only playing 16 minutes a game. If they get the full 20-minute deployment of top-line players, then both of them are pushing 75 points next year. Getting a healthy season from Vince Dunn should make a big difference now. Even still, the Kraken aren't likely to be a playoff team again soon, as they don't have the high end talent to make the push, and they don't have the depth to put up a similar season to what the Kings did this year.

As for the Sharks, there aren't any delusions of the team making the playoffs next year, which does make the firing of Quinn a little confusing, because he was hired less than two years prior. It begs the question of what do the Sharks' brass want in a coach then? Maybe someone who plays or develops the kids a little more? As someone who is looking at William Eklund taking another step next year alongside Thomas Bordeleau, and maybe at least one of Calen Addison or Colin Graf turning into a useful fantasy asset.

There are some useful pieces on both teams, so the incoming coaches will have a big effect on many fantasy seasons.   

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Valeri Nichushkin extended his goal streak to five games (seven goals) as the Avalanche walked over the Jets in their round one win. He also had two goals in the regular season finale, putting him on quite the run. He hasn’t played more than 65 games in a season since 2015-16, but on a per-game basis he is well worth the draft investment nowadays.

Artturi Lehkonen also scored in every game of the series, and is nearly as productive as Nichushkin if you miss out on him at draft tables in the fall. In the third, Mikko Ranatanen took over, scoring two goals of his own, including the winner. Ranatanen, along with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar led the way for the Avalanche in the series, with each scoring two goals and seven assists in the five game series.

Connor Hellebuyck may end up winning the Vezina trophy, but he was plain not good enough in this series.

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The Predators lived to fight another day as Juuse Saros finally out-battled rookie Arturs Silovs in the 2-1 victory. Game six goes Friday back in Nashville, and to me it’s too bad that all these great series are getting played out in the Western timezones, so the earlier start in Nashville is appreciated.

All of the scoring in the game came from defencemen, with Roman Josi and Alex Carrier tallying for the Preds, and Nikita Zadorov responding for the Canucks. Filip Forsberg assisted on both goals to extend his team lead in points through the playoffs. He may not be practicing or fully healthy, but he is on another level production-wise from where we have ever seen him before.

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See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.  

5 Comments

  1. mudville 2024-05-02 at 11:07

    Awwwww poor wittle you, Maclean and the rest of the center of the hockey universe that is the east/Toronto etc. So sorry you have to stay up a couple of hours later to watch a Western game. How about us West Coast hockey fans who have to put up with the absolute and outrageous bullshit of having games played at 9:30 @##$@#$ AM? or 12 noon? both in the regular season and play-offs. Bettman and the NHL, and the schedule is a complete @#@#$ joke. So , ya, go ahead and have some cheese with you whine.

    • Ian Gooding 2024-05-02 at 17:10

      West Coaster here. I’d rather watch a game that starts at 9:30 am than one that goes on past midnight. Some of us have jobs and families and need to go to bed at a certain time in order to function.

      Understood that not everyone has the same schedule, but why is an early start time “absolute and outrageous BS?” Seems like some strong cheese is needed for that whine.

      • mudville 2024-05-03 at 06:48

        Good for you, you must be quite the amazing family patriarch given every single parent I know has early morning/afternoon activities for their kids EVERY weekend (of course, other than seemingly you. Activities like soccer, swimming, field hockey, kazoo lessons etc etc etc, not to mention families going out on picnics or shopping or movie matinees or any other activities that the morning and early afternoon are pretty much exclusive to familial bonding. So tell me, if the quintessential weasel that is Buttman wants to supposedly ‘expand the game’ and get more fans on board, how are parents (who make up a massive portion of the hockey viewing public) supposed to watch any god damn games that are on at the ridiculously scheduled times of early morning and early afternoon, when they are out and about doing things with their families and kids.

        • Ian Gooding 2024-05-03 at 11:20

          I’ll ignore your sarcasm in the beginning and focus on the merits of your argument. My kids are a bit older now, so I don’t have as many morning/early afternoon activities to take them to as I used to. But yes, it’s generally easier for me to watch a game in the evening (particularly west coast prime time), since there may be things to do during the day.

          Obviously the league wants to expand its audience in the TV market. However, the NHL is a gate-driven league, which means much of its focus is getting butts into seats. Afternoon games allow families with young children to attend games more easily than having them go to a game in the evening and stay up late. Watching a game on TV is one thing. But get the kids into a game and you give them core memories that make them fans for life.

          In addition, the NHL has historically been an Eastern time zone league, although that’s not as strong nowadays with expansion focused on Western-based teams. View this comment as screwing over Vancouver (or wherever you live) if you wish, but I don’t think Bettman cares as much about what you’re saying. And if you want to know why, think about what generates revenue for the league.

    • Alexander MacLean 2024-05-03 at 10:29

      As a father and someone who works a full time job outside of the privilege of also writing for this awesome site, I’m always happy to get constructive criticism. Unfortunately your whining is doing nothing constructive other than outing yourself as someone that is unhappy with your own situation.
      I do update for the late games when I wake up in the morning, and they’re there for you when you West coasters are likely awake in the morning too. If you have a suggestion to fix your “issues” I’m all ears. Whether that would mean publishing the Ramblings later into the morning so you don’t see them until they’re updated, or just not including notes on the late games at all, let me know. But with a wake up time of 6am EST for work, and a toddler who is up at all hours of the night, staying up until 2am to write incoherent thoughts is not in anyone’s best interest.

      If you want to read a boxscore, head on over to the Frozentools site. If you want insight, you can wait a few hours for free content. Cheers

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