As we are heading to the end of round one with a couple of series left, let's take some time to analyze some of the series which have already concluded. We will be going over each series with an analytical lens, looking at the difference in statistics and finding some interesting numbers in the data. 

Here is the breakdown of the series we are covering today. As a side note: the series that are being looked at today are admittingly lopsided, which we can expect from four and five games. We will mostly be talking about the losing team, as we are trying to analyze why they lost and what went wrong.

Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: FLA has beaten TBL in five games (4-1)

What a fall from grace for Lightning core, and with Steven Stamkos potentially leaving, we can only wonder how they will manage to stay competitive.  This is another first round loss in a row for the Bolts, with it not looking much brighter for the future.

Looking over the analytics of the series, one fact is clear, and it is the difference in depth in between the Panthers and Lightning. The Panthers roster depth is shown, as 18 players recorded a point in the series (Dmitry Kulikov and Ryan Lomberg did not record any pts) compared to 12 on Tampa Bay. The bigger difference lies in the multi-point comparison, in which the Panthers have 15 players with two or more points and Tampa Bay has only eight. Adding on to these points, the star players on Florida eclipsed Tampa's stars, with just a little more offensive production compared to their counterparts.

The goaltenders from both teams also played a massive role in the result of this series, with both Andrei Vasilevskiy and Sergei Bobrovsky struggling the entire time (struggling compared to their normal playoff forms). Both had very similar stats, with Vasy having 16 GA on 156 shots and 140 saves – 0.897 SV%, and Bob with 14 GA on 135 shots and 121 saves – 0.896 SV%. Bob was just better, he had the bigger moments and the bigger saves, which helped the Panthers win.

The outcome of this seems like it was so easily predictable all along in retrospect. These are two very physical teams (TB 1^st in hits, FLA 2^nd), and when it comes down to it, the top six and top four match up against each other so well, but when you add the depth into the equation, it really shows how much those 3^rd and 4^th liners can do. The Panthers rode their defensive style and allowed for the depth to score goals, while shutting down Tampa's future Hall of Famers. Another notable thing that caused Tampa to lose was their lack of PP anything, they had the best unit going into the playoffs, and that did not hold true. They only went 4-20(20%) on the PP, which is not enough with a lack of depth.

New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals: NYR has beaten WSH in four games (4-0)
This was the result that everyone had expected, so no surprises here. The Rangers quietly took the broom and swept the Caps back to D.C, where it almost never looked like it was a close series. Watching Game 1, the battle was even, and both teams looked like they had some life in them and that a battle was going to occur, but it just never did. The Rangers took advantage on the Capitals' mistakes, which is the summary of this entire series. The lack of presence and passion from the veterans really showed, as most of the players who even recorded a point are a part of the younger core. This really is not the formula for success in the playoff like we know it. We know that veterans are such a huge piece of the playoffs, and they only recorded 5 of the 18 total points the Capitals created this entire series. They also had more players without points than with points, which is never a sign of a good team.

Charlie Lindgren was also thrown under the bus, with a SV% of 0.864 (14 GA on 103 shots – 89 saves), which is not entirely his fault; the defense was not doing the best they could at all times. When the Capitals were out of their defensive zone, it was not much better, as they recorded the lowest shot rate in the East. The lack of everything was exposed by the Rangers, and it does not mean the Capitals fully rebuilding, but it raises many questions on who will be there next season.
The Capitals are going to look much worse on paper, they played only four games, and did not play well in them. They have a bright young core which is something to build around, they have a promising future, it's just sadly one that will not have The Great Eight.

Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders: CAR has beaten NYI in five games (4-1)
The Islanders have found themselves once again out of the playoffs early, with an interesting note that they have not had a significant Cup-hunting roster since 1983 (ECF in 2019-20, PDO was off the charts for this team, meaning they were somewhat lucky).

This was another series that went as expected, boring and slow until you end up missed two goals after getting up for a second. The grinding style of the Islanders is the reason why the make the playoffs so often, but what comes out is the same problem: they lack star scoring, and just scoring in general is difficult to find for them. They have depth, with most of the roster recording a point, but not many players found themselves at a point per game pace, with only Mathew Barzal having five pts (2G,3A). This is not enough, as any other team you are facing has stars that are overproducing, or a random role player who is overproducing. The Islanders are a team that never overproduces as they only struggle with creating.

Defense does win championships, but usually that defense is paired with something dynamic and productive on offense, but the Islanders have all their eggs in the defensive basket, while leaving almost nothing for offense. They are only better than the Capitals in GF/60 at 2.24, and a -1.31 Goal Differential/60. One big reason for their quick loss this year was that they did not hold leads well at all and were in the position of an underdog the entire series. The main idea with a defensive style is to maintain leads and to wear down the opponent, but there is no point if you cannot hold or even get a lead in the first place. The Isles are only getting older, and some of the windows for the veterans on this squad are ending. It is an interesting future in Long Island.

Winnipeg Jets vs Colorado Avalanche: COL has beaten WPG in five games (4-1)
Winnipeg came into this series as the favorites and the higher seed. The regular season success they had made it look like they were going to be a deep, playoff-oriented team, but instead everything just became undone, and the Jets no longer were good at any of the things they considered to be their strengths two weeks ago.

Let's note the things that remained the same first, as star scoring was indeed an issue in both the regular season and playoffs, as only five players had more than one goal and players like Nikolaj Ehlers, Gabriel Vilardi, and Sean Monahan all failing to score, even though they produced in the regular season.

Some things that collapsed at the beginning of these playoffs include Connor Hellebuyck, who looked like he forgot he was a Vezina candidate, putting up a disappointing 0.864 SV% with 24 GA on 177 shots with 153 saves. This was a major factor in the Jets losing, along with the stacking of bad performances of both the Jets Defense and Hellebuyck. The structure and solidarity of the defensemen was not present for Jets, with them only having three players above a zero plus minus rating. This is unacceptable for team that let in the least number of goals in the regular season, and especially important against the top offensive team in the league. This was just a bad time to collapse, and the Jets will be back for more, losing only some of the trade deadline acquisitions in the core.

Thank you for reading and have a great rest of your day!

Twitter/X – @DH_staspup for any questions, corrections, or comments