Only one game of playoff pucks on Thursday… and it was quite the night for Leafs fans.

Maple Leafs 2, Bruins 1 (series tied 3-3)

Maybe losing Auston Matthews was what the Leafs needed to figure out how to dig deep and play with passion. Of course it's not as simple as that, but the Leafs have won both games that their star goal scorer has missed.

William Nylander scored both goals for the Leafs, the goals being his first two of the playoffs and his first goals in 14 games dating back to the regular season. Nylander also finished the game with five shots, three hits, and two blocks, stepping up when the Leafs needed it most.

"WE'RE GOING TO BOSTON AGAIN!"

NYLANDER 2ND of the Playoffs vs Bruins courtesy of @Bonsie1951 and @Jim_Ralph. @LeafsJelly pic.twitter.com/RFMFRSRLMd

— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) May 3, 2024

Only a last-second (literally) goal from Morgan Geekie spoiled a shutout for Joseph Woll. The Leafs' turnaround in this series could also be traced to Woll taking over from Ilya Samsonov for the third period of Game 4. Woll has now stopped 54 of 56 shots he has faced over the 2+ games. Barring an injury, there should be little doubt that Woll is the Game 7 starter for the Leafs.

Matthews has now missed two whole games plus part of Game 4 with this mysterious illness or injury. Like many teams, the Leafs are playing coy about why Matthews is out of the lineup. We will have to wait until closer to Game 7 to find out whether he is available, but we'd have to consider him questionable at best for the game.

The Leafs find themselves playing in Game 7 of this series in spite of some anemic special teams. That begs the question of how important special teams is during the playoffs. Carrying the play on 5-on-5 is important, but those moments of capitalizing on the power play while snuffing out the opponent's power plays can tip the series. Granted, the power play has been missing Matthews and Nylander at various points in the series.

Honestly kind of insane the Leafs aren't out already with these numbers pic.twitter.com/JdVkDVyrlT

— william nylander 4th-place lady byng voter (@mostlyleafies) May 3, 2024

Leafs are now 0 for their last 15 playoff power play opportunities at home dating back to 2023

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) May 3, 2024

That even-strength play for the Leafs was key in holding the Bruins to just one shot over the first period and more. These playoffs have seen some crazy-low shot totals. I should know, since I've been paying the closest attention to the Canucks/Predators series.

Some people think the ones who yell "SHOOT IT!" are unnecessary…

Maybe sometimes they are needed… pic.twitter.com/GuUVvc5crZ

— The Hockey Writers (@TheHockeyWriter) May 3, 2024

For the Bruins, Jeremy Swayman stopped 24 of 26 shots. Their lack of scoring and shots (at times) was not his fault, so expect Swayman to start Game 7. Playing in every game except Game 2, Swayman has not allowed more than two goals in each of the five games he has started. The Bruins stand a great chance of winning Game 7 if their offense can wake up, as Swayman has been doing his part.

If the Bruins lose Game 7 on Saturday night, it will be the second year in a row that they've coughed up a 3-1 series lead in the first round. Last season, that happened to them against Florida. They've also lost six consecutive series-clinching games dating back to 2022.

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Although there could potentially be two Game 7s on Sunday, the Rangers and Hurricanes will start their second-round series that day. Even though the Rangers finished three points ahead of the Hurricanes, my gut tells me that Carolina should be viewed as the slight favorite in this series. That being said, I'm having a hard time determining where each team would have a strong advantage over the other. Maybe the Rangers have a bit more star power, but Carolina was already a high-octane system before loading up at the trade deadline with Jake Guentzel and Evgeny Kuznetsov.

That's the great thing about this season, where there doesn't seem to be any clear-cut favorite. After the Rangers and Hurricanes seemed to have little trouble with their first-round opponents, they appear to be a great match for each other. Let's go seven games in this one, shall we?  

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This week, the NHL has been announcing its three finalists for each major award. On Thursday, the Masterton Trophy finalists were revealed: Oliver Kylington, Frederik Andersen, and Connor Ingram. These three are all deserving finalists, given the challenges they have faced. I won't focus on what those challenges were, who should win, or if anyone excluded faced bigger challenges. Instead, I'll discuss the on-ice accomplishments of the two goalies this season. Both were effective for fantasy teams at times, but for different reasons.

Andersen was a prime example of how stashing a player on IR can be extremely beneficial. He played in just six games before being sidelined with a blood-clotting issue, which forced him out of the lineup until March. If you were able to hold onto him for that long or add him from the waiver wire, you were handsomely rewarded – perhaps even during your fantasy playoffs. After his return, Andersen posted a 9-1-0 record with a 1.30 GAA and .951 SV%. He allowed over two goals in a game just once over the 10-game span following his return.

Given Andersen's success following his return and in the playoffs (4-0-1, 2.25 GAA, .912 SV% so far), Andersen's stock for next season is on the rise. With another season under contract in Carolina, Andersen should be in the discussion as a top-10 goalie in next season's fantasy drafts. Pyotr Kochetkov could force the workload into more of a timeshare, although a decreased workload might be beneficial for the 34-year-old Andersen anyway. His days as a 60+ game starter in Toronto have passed. A more reasonable expectation might be 50 games.

Meanwhile, Ingram was a Zero G waiver-wire target during the season. Drafted in just 3 percent of Yahoo leagues, Ingram rose to prominence during the middle of the season, posting five shutouts between November 25 and January 13. He finished tied with three other goalies for the league lead in shutouts with 6 SO. Ingram couldn't maintain his momentum of a strong first half, finishing with a 3.00+ GAA and 41% quality start percentage during the second half. He at least played well enough to wrestle the starting job away from Karel Vejmelka, which made him rosterable in many 2+ goalie formats.

The new ownership for the now-Utah franchise could bolster the team with player depth and other resources that weren't available to them in Arizona. A new-look roster, particularly on defense where most players are set to become UFAs or RFAs, could benefit Ingram and Vejmelka next season. Keep an eye on what roster moves the Utah hockey club makes during the offseason.

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The one series that I was really wrong about was the Colorado/Winnipeg series. I thought this one would go seven games with an underrated Winnipeg team pulling it out with Connor Hellebuyck coming up huge in net. Instead, the Jets crashed in five games, and Hellebuyck had a series to forget (in spite of him saying otherwise). Hellebuyck allowed at least four goals in each of the five games, finishing the series with a very un-Vezina-like 5.01 GAA and .870 SV%.

On one hand, I wouldn't put much stock into this fantasy-wise, as this was a five-game stretch against one opponent. That opponent had two of the league's top-10 point getters in Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, as well as 90-point scoring defenseman Cale Makar. Goals-against average in particular is a function of the defensive play of the team in front of him, so from a pure hockey standpoint I'm not suggesting the poor numbers are all Hellebuyck's fault. I didn't watch a ton of this series, but it sounds like the Jets got pulled away from their structured approach and were drawn into a run-and-gun by the Avalanche.

On the other hand, stay away from picking Hellebuyck too early in next season's drafts. I'm not suggesting Hellebuyck will be a bust, but goalies are usually less of a sure thing than players. Short stretches of bad play that turn into major slumps can really hurt your team. He will probably be a top-5 drafted goalie again, as I don't see any other reason to be convinced otherwise. For example, I would draft him ahead of someone like Thatcher Demko or Ilya Sorokin.

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A series I was a little bit wrong about was the Edmonton/Los Angeles series. I picked Edmonton like just about everyone else, but I thought the Kings would put up a bit more of a fight and take the series to seven games. There's lots of blame to go around with the Kings, particularly with how Cam Talbot did not come through for them. Yet Pierre-Luc Dubois stands out as a player who followed up a bust-level regular season with an even more disappointing postseason (1 PT in 5 GP).

The fact that a buyout is even being brought up as a possibility after just one season explains how poorly PLD's tenure in LA has gone after just one season. Yet depending on when the Stanley Cup is awarded, he may qualify for a 1/3 buyout, which means considerable savings for the Kings if they go that route because of when he turns 26. Crazy talk, or is it?

So is it a 1/3 or 2/3 buyout?

If the cup is awarded June 23, they cannot buy him out until after he turns 26, meaning 2/3 buyout.

If cup is awarded before June 22, they could potentially buy him out before he turns 26, making it a 1/3 buyout. https://t.co/VrNAe9JnO5

— PuckPedia (@PuckPedia) May 2, 2024

From a pure hockey standpoint, the Kings might want to give him at least one more season before resorting to drastic measures. Sometimes a player needs at least one season to adjust to new surroundings. In addition, a new coach could be a better fit for him. There’s also the sunk cost theory, where the Kings gave up considerable assets (Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, Rasmus Kupari, 2024 2nd-round pick) to acquire him, so they might want to see this through. Dubois' lack of production resulted in a demotion to the fourth line, but an injury could very easily bump him up to the top of the lineup next season. All in all, I'm not drafting him as a sleeper unless it's a very late one, but I wouldn't be surprised if he bounces back in some way.

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As I finish this up, I've just received word that Frozen Tools has a new report that generates data from NHL Edge. I haven't had time to pore over all of this data yet, but it could be useful in the same sense that stats such as pitch speed and exit velocity are used for fantasy baseball. Some more possibilities for deep-dive research on a particular player, especially when comparing one season to another as well as what might lie ahead. Regular-season data only so far – no playoff data.

🚨NEW FEATURE🚨

We have some data from NHL Edge and we put it in a NEW Report Generator!

So far we have FIVE reports, all for skaters

Skating Distance
Shot Speed
Shot Location
Skating Speed
Zone Timehttps://t.co/CbRkCkX7q3

— Frozen Tools (@FrozenTools) May 2, 2024

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