The Journey: CHL Playoff Leaders
Ben Gehrels
2024-05-04
Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom. Having recently scanned the U23 players excelling in the first round of the NHL playoffs, let's turn our attention this week to the playoff action in Canada's top three junior leagues.
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Ontario Hockey League (OHL)
The Conference Finals are well underway In the OHL right now.
In the East, the Oshawa Generals, featuring Calum Ritchie (COL), 2024-eligible Beckett Sennecke, and a bunch of longshots, are up 3-2 on the North Bay Battalion, who are led by Sandis Vilmanis (FLA), Ty Nelson (SEA), and the undrafted-but-prolific Anthony Romani, who finished second in OHL scoring to David Goyette (SEA) in the regular season.
In the West, it's the loaded London Knights leading the feisty Saginaw Spirit 3-1. London is led by Denver Barkey (PHI) and Easton Cowan (TOR), with key support from 2024-eligible Sam Dickinson, Kasper Halttunen (SJS), Oliver Bonk (PHI), and Isaiah George (NYI). Saginaw boasts dynamic youth, with top 2024 prospect Zayne Parekh and 2025-eligible Michael Misa leading a team that also features Owen Beck (MTL), Rodwin Dionicio (ANA), Josh Bloom (VAN), Hunter Haight (MIN), and Matyas Sapovaliv (VGK).
Insights:
As he has done all year, Cal Ritchie (COL) continues to put the Generals on his back, proving that he was an excellent late-first-round steal by Colorado at last year's draft. He has always been billed as the kind of player who makes everyone around him better. He is a dynamic, high-IQ playmaker who can also snipe, but he continues to be less of a highlight-reel player and more of a significant play-driver who provides a ton of intangibles on top of the (as of this year) prolific production.
Ritchie is currently tied with Sandis Vilmanis (FLA) for the OHL playoff scoring lead, one point ahead of teammate Beckett Sennecke (2024 eligible), who has had scouts salivating of late and is shooting up draft boards. Although he has been less hyped than the other top options for the upcoming draft—mostly ranked in the early 20s at mid-season—Sennecke is now being discussed as a potential top-five selection by some.
In the Dobber Prospects' Top 96 from last month, Jordan Harris noted Sennecke's constant improvements throughout the year, concluding that although he "is a supremely talented player who'll try anything to gain an advantage or generate offence," he is still quite raw, poor in his own end, and mistake-prone. He feels like he might be considered a reach at 5th but an excellent upside play in the 8-10 range at this point. Check out this wicked release, for example:
I did not see this level of production coming from Vilmanis, a fifth-round pick by Florida from the 2022 draft. He did not have any glaring holes in his skillset in his draft year, which is notable for a depth pick, but there were concerns about his processing speed and NHL trajectory. I recently switched over to covering the Red Wings, but as Dobber's Florida scout for the past few years, I rated Vilmanis a 5.0 on both upside and NHL likelihood and did not see much potential. Although his upside remains a depth scorer at the NHL level, he continues to progress steadily and showcased his excellent shot and hands in this year's playoffs.
Over in the West, Hunter Haight (MIN) came up huge for Saginaw recently, scoring a hat trick in an elimination game to push the series to at least a fifth game:
Rodwin Dionicio racked up four assists in that same game and continues to intrigue for fantasy purposes as a slower-skating-but-deadly-deceptive defender for the young Ducks.
For London, Denver Barkey (PHI), Easton Cowan (TOR), and Kasper Halttunen (SJS) have formed a wicked trio. Barkey and Cowan are the straws that stir the drink, and Halttunen is constantly ready to unleash his dangerous shot, as he does on this power play from the bumper after a slick pass by Barkey:
At this point, it looks as though Ritchie's Generals will face off against Cowan's Knights in the OHL Finals, but anything can happen. Exciting hockey.
Western Hockey League (WHL)
In the Western league, both series have been hotly contested and are headed into their sixth game.
On the one side, we have the Saskatoon Blades, led by Fraser Minten (TOR), Tanner Molendyk (NAS), and Yegor Sidorov (ANA), currently on top over the absolutely loaded Moose Jaw Warriors, who have a "Big Four" of Matthew Savoie (BUF), Jagger Firkus (SEA), Brayden Yager (PIT), and Denton Mateychuk (CBJ)—all of whom were first- or second-round picks in recent years.
On the other, the Portland Winterhawks, with Nate Danielson (DET), Josh Davies (FLA), and Luca Cagnoni (SJS), are up 3-2 over the Prince George Cougars, who have Riley Heidt (MIN), Koehn Ziemmer (LAK), and 2024-eligible phenoms Terik Parascak and Ondrej Becher.
Insights:
Starting with the Western Final, Saskatoon will just not be denied.
Anaheim's Yegor Sidorov, who just scored 50 goals in the regular season, leads the WHL playoffs with 14 goals in 14 games—three clear of the regular-season scoring champ, Firkus. Sidorov is not someone who has really been on my radar for fantasy, but I think he should be at this point. He was an overaged third-round pick last year, which rarely bodes well, but his improvements over the past couple years have been impressive.
From Elite Prospects' 2023 Draft Guide: "If the WHL had a Most Improved Player award, Yegor Sidorov would've gotten our vote. The goalscoring winger went from a clever, but unrefined shooter to one of the league's most dangerous scoring threats." Scoring 90 goals in his last 119 games in Junior will likely earn him an audition with the AHL San Diego Gulls as early as next season, especially because his manually tracked microstats (courtesy of EP's Mitch Brown) show a balanced three-zone impact.
Top Leafs prospect Fraser Minten has been the target of much scrutiny this year as the Captain of Canada's underwhelming submission to the U20 World Juniors, but he has come up clutch so far in these playoffs, including this huge overtime goal (and ridiculous celly) to put Saskatoon up 3-2 in the series:
There are too many awesome prospects to highlight, but Moose Jaw captain Denton Mateychuk (CBJ) is certainly worthy of a shout out. He leads the playoffs in assists with 17 in 14 games (plus eight goals), and continues to leverage his all-world skating to jump up into the rush and provide quick-strike offense in transition:
Despite needing to crack a crowded Columbus blue line, expect to see the lanky defender scoring goals like that in the NHL as soon as next year, with a full-time arrival likely in 2025-26.
As the ninth-overall pick from the 2023 draft, Nate Danielson (DET) felt like a bit of a reach for the Red Wings—especially given that noted talents like Dalibor Dvorsky (STL) and especially Zach Benson (BUF) were still on the board at that point. Then his production with the Brandon Wheat Kings declined in his D+1, which is only part of the story but is never a good sign from a high-level overaged prospect in junior. However, a mid-season trade to Portland got him going, resulting in a 0.3 point-per-game increase over his Draft year. He has continued that torrid pace in the off-season, posting four goals and 16 assists—one back from Mateychuk's 17 for the league lead.
https://twitter.com/seanshapiro/status/1786407971422965925
Danielson is looking like the two-way playmaking force that the Wings thought he was. Expect him to report to Grand Rapids (AHL) in 2024-25.
Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League (QMJHL)
Finally, over in the east of the country, the semis have already concluded, and the Baie-Comeau Drakkar are facing off against the Drummondville Voltigeurs in the league final. Prospects of note in this series include Maveric Lamoureaux (UTA) and Ethan Gauthier (TBL) on Drummondville and Justin Gill (NYI) and 2024-eligible Justin Poirier on Baie-Comeau.
Insights:
If you haven't read it already, check out this excellent article by Scott Wheeler at The Athletic about Lamoureaux's development regime:
Lamoureux is primarily known for being a 6-7 defender, part of the Coyotes recent emphasis on size, whose parents shared a passionate kiss immediately after he was drafted. He made notable improvements on offence this year (33 in 39), however, and is proving that he is much more than just a big body. He will need a long runway still, but he made Team Canada this year and seems to be justifying his first-round selection in spades.
Justin Poirier (2024), the Q's leading playoff scorer so far, has been generating the most buzz of this group lately:
He went nearly a point-per-game a year ago at age 16, and this year he put up an impressive 82 points in 68 games (51 goals), taking his game to yet another level in the postseason with 25 points in 13 games. He has been ranked anywhere from a late-first (24th, Recruit Scouting) to late-third (84th, McKeen's) pick, but has been picking up momentum with this strong finish to the year.
Our team at DP slotted him in at 41st on our April board. QMJHL regional scout Sasha Lagarde wrote that "Poirier is quickly becoming the most intriguing prospect coming out of the QMJHL this season… He has an elite shot and rarely backs away from physicality in the corners or in front of the net. Poirier has improved in his playmaking abilities by using the middle of the ice more to open up lanes for himself. Poirier has enough pace to keep up with better players and can score in a multitude of ways which is the most translatable element of his game. As he matures, his defensive game should improve and his hockey sense will allow him to grasp concepts at the pro level. Poirier could be a sneaky gamble for teams looking for secondary scoring threats in the second round."
Poirier picks up about a penalty minute per game, so he clearly isn't afraid to mix it up physically. At 5-8 (181 lbs), however, he will constantly have to counter the "too small" narrative that remains very much alive and well in the NHL, especially come playoff time. I agree with Lagarde: I would love to see my favourite team come away with a player like this in the second round.
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Thanks for reading! Follow me on X @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.
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