Welcome back. This week we are going to be completing the round one analysis for the last remaining teams which we have not covered. I realize that the format/writing style I have chosen currently is not ideal because this article come out weekly, so after this week, I am going to be trying to find a writing style that is more of a weekly recap with a hodgepodge of information and topics, all still being under the main topic of analytics.

With that being said, let's now focus on the breakdown of why the losing team lost and what went wrong.

EDM vs LAK: EDM has beaten LAK in five games (4-1)

Another year where we have found Connor McDavid and his Oilers beating the Kings in the first round. To be exact, this is the third year in a row and the Kings have won one fewer game each year (21/22: 4-3, 22/23: 4-2, 23/24: 4-1). This is signs of both a growing and improving Oilers roster and the Kings roster becoming worse and aging. Some players like Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty have not shown as much regression (if any) as others, with Kopitar having three points in five games. The star players did not produce either, Kevin Fiala underproduced with two points in five games, along with fellow former Nashville Predator Viktor Arvidsson who had three points in five games.

The biggest "bust" of this series is a player who seems to be always surrounded by drama and issues, and that player is Pierre-Luc Dubois. PLD was supposed to be the replacement for Kopitar if he retired, but he has been nothing of the sort. He scored one goal which was a deflection off of Darnell Nurse's skate, and that is the end of the positive attributions from PLD, with every single other notable statistic being negative. He had 20 PIMS, was easily the 4^th left winger in the lineup sheet, and throughout five games, only took four shots. This is not the type of performance an $8.5-million player is supposed to be putting up in the biggest of times. Another place where the Kings got beaten was special teams, where they failed to score even a single power play goal, and that is sometimes all it takes for a team to collapse. This is very visible as the Oilers had a 45% PP this series, scoring 9-20 opportunities, and the Kings went 0-12. The inability to stop the flood of goals that came from McDavid and Leon Draisaitl proved to be too much for the Kings 1-3-1 style, and weak goaltending all series did not support that defensive prowess they had shown all regular season. The Kings are in an interesting spot, as they need to decide PLD's fate, as he turns 26 soon, meaning he would be bought out for a greater some sum than if he was 25, and there are many question marks left in that roster, as it seems that the early 2010's winning core is on its last threads, and that the team is at a massive crossroads in these coming months.

VAN vs NSH: VAN has beaten NSH in six games (4-2)

Nashville came into this series riding one of the hottest streaks in the league (18-game point streak), they looked like they couldn't be stopped, they came into game one with that same play style and intensity, and it seemed that the Canucks could not compete. This all was stopped each time, and throughout the series there was a lack of playing hard the entire time. The Predators lead at some point in each game expect three and six, but only won games two and five, meaning that they lost the lead which was due to poor performances in the 3^rd period. One of the keys I mentioned was for the Predators to have a strong defensive presence, and Juuse Saros can hold his own, and they had failed to do so. Saros played like normal, but the players in front of him let him down immensely, as the defense did not play like they did in the regular season, and the offense was up against Casey DeSmith because of Thatcher Demko's Injury, and they had failed to produce like they were expected to. One of the biggest underperformers was former Saint Thomas Academy Cadet, Thomas Novak, who failed to record any points along with being -1 overall. This is a disappointing postseason performance, and he wasn't the only Predator who dropped a goose egg in the point column. The lack of overall offense was very apparent in the tail end of this series, with the Predators only scoring six goals in four games, which is a 1.5 G/GP pace, which is incredibly low for a playoff team at any point. The Predators are another team that has its future in a cloud of questions. They have many bright young prospects who should be coming up soon, but also, they have older UFAs and older players in general who will not be the same year in year out. Barry Trotz has a plan,  we will have to all wait and see how it all plays out.

BOS vs TOR: BOS has beaten TOR in seven games (4-3)

An age-old tale that everyone is used by now: Bruins in seven and the Leafs' core is being picked apart because honestly, they are not performing as they should in when they arrive to April. Let's get into the reasons as to why this core is being shredded and picked apart, and many of the reoccurring flaws had come back to bite the Leaf's this series once more.

The very first thing to note is there is a noticeable lack of production from the stars, with not a single player at a point per game pace, and more players closer to zero points than to three points. Another immediate issue that can be seen is the lack of power play conversion, which was the same story we have seen from the past two series and losing team. If the power play cannot capitalize and the even strength play is evenly matched, then the losing team will be the one with weaker special teams. The lone PPG came from John Tavares, which was in Game Two, and was the deciding factor to an otherwise quite even game. This was the only time, as the Leaf's failed to utilize special teams any more as the series progressed. Toronto scored 11 even strength goals, and Boston had 12, and when comparing special teams, Toronto had the lone Tavares goal, and Boston had six PPGs this series, which helped them edge out the victory in multiple games. This was probably the last year for this current core, and it is interesting to see where Brad Treliving will take this squad, Keefe is gone as of today, and there is plenty more of change coming.

DAL vs VGK: DAL has beaten VGK in seven games (4-3)

When this series began, it looked like Vegas was back into Stanley Cup performance mode, with two very solid games taking a two-game series lead, but they had not been able to secure another win until game six, where it was Vegas who was on the verge of being eliminated. Both teams had scored 16 goals this series, with 12 even strength goals, and four special team goals, meaning both teams were trading blows and playing to their strengths. This series was not lost because of a lack of something, more so of a better version or counterpart being on the other team.

Jack Eichel was the only Vegas forward who was really producing as they expected, with Eichel having seven points in seven games(3G, 4A), and the next two guys on the stat sheet are defensemen Brayden McNabb and Noah Hanifin. This isn't necessarily bad, but when stars like William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault are unable to score in seven games, this will definitely raise some questions. If the Vegas stars produced even two or three more goals this series could have ended in a Vegas win. Another addition to my point of a "better version or counterpart", Jake Oettinger was the better goalie, even though the Stats are the exact same for both teams. The difference was in between Logan Thompson and the Otter, as the Otter had a 0.925% (14 GA, 173/187 saves in seven GP) compared to 0.921% (10 GA, 117/127 saves in four GP), while this may not seem like a big difference, but just having a better and more reliable goalie can be the key to winning a few extra minutes of hockey towards the end of a game.
This can be shown somewhat by looking at the 3^rd period goals, where Vegas only scored three goals in seven games, while Dallas had scored five in seven. Seeing that the scoring is evenly matched all other places, losing the 3^rd period battle more times than not is not a recipe for a winning team, and the Stars used their depth to defeat the formidable Vegas Golden Knights.
There are also some questions for this roster coming into next season, like only having $897,516 to spend as they are right up next to the cap limit. They have some pending UFAs to sign, which they will have to move some bodies around or let them walk as they cannot afford to sign anybody significant at this moment.

Thank you for reading and have a great rest of your day!

Twitter/X – @DH_staspup for any questions, corrections, or comments

Player Data sourced from NaturalStatTrick,  Capfriendly, Hockey Reference