Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. The NHL’s draft lottery was anticlimactic, with the San Jose Sharks winning the first overall selection, and the Chicago Blackhawks winning the second overall pick – exactly where they were slotted before the lottery. That means no teams changed position, not even Detroit, who always seems to find a way to drop.

It’s too bad the rules are airtight, otherwise we could have had San Jose win the first three picks. In some alternate universe where San Jose actually gets the first three selections, I wonder if that just pushes Chicago and Anaheim back, or replaces them on the board entirely.

Making the (seemingly safe) assumption that the Sharks do take Macklin Celebrini, then they are getting a player that reportedly has upside similar to Nathan MacKinnon or Jack Hughes. Celebrini may be close to NHL ready, but it doesn’t mean he’s going to be a super fantasy asset right away. On top of that, there is a very real possibility that he returns to college for one more season. He’s still the top pick in the draft, but while you can appreciate the upside, try to manage the expectations as well. (may8)

2. On top of the draft lottery, the Blackhawks had some other news, inking Lukas Reichel to a two-year deal with an AAV of $1.2 million. The two-year deal expires with Reichel still an RFA, and gives both the team and player a chance to determine where things stand for the future. The Blackhawks do have to pick at number-two before they get to see Reichel play a game on this new contract, but I wonder if having Frank Nazar, Oliver Moore, and Reichel in the system along with Bedard has the team leaning a little more towards Artyom Levshunov instead of Ivan Demidov. Selecting a defenseman second overall would certainly be another slight vote of confidence in Reichel’s favour. (may8)

3. Nikita Zadorov has been an absolute force during the playoffs. Big Z is going to get paid from someone this offseason, whether that be from the Canucks or someone else. Here in Vancouver, the debate centers around whether to re-sign Zadorov or Filip Hronek. Although it seemed clear that the answer would have been Hronek during the season, the case for Zadorov has really picked up steam during the playoffs. Usually a banger and not a goal scorer, Zadorov managed to score 14 goals for Calgary last season. (may11)

4. A day after firing head coach Sheldon Keefe, the Leafs held their widely anticipated season-end press conference. As what has become commonplace for eliminated teams, Leafs GM Brad Treliving released the full details on injuries they were battling through.

Auston Matthews — became really sick after Gm 2, suffered a hit in Gm 4 that presented “head injury” issues
William Nylander — severe migraines
Joe Woll — sprained back
Bobby McMann — MCL knee sprain
Connor Dewar — shoulder surgery

None of these injuries appear to be the type that would impact the player’s availability for training camp in the fall. Hopefully Auston Matthews and William Nylander in particular are able to heal over the summer, as head injuries can be unpredictable. Joseph Woll is a potential starter for the Leafs next season, but it will be important for the Leafs to acquire at least a veteran 1A/1B goalie with both Ilya Samsonov and Martin Jones set to hit free agency. (may11)

5. My offseason review of the 16 non-playoff teams continues today with the Seattle Kraken. We have already gone over the San Jose Sharks, the Chicago Blackhawks, the Anaheim Ducks, the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Montreal Canadiens, the Arizona Coyotes (now in Utah), and the Ottawa Senators. Let’s go over what went right, what went wrong, and where they go from here, with all this put through a fantasy hockey lens.

What Went Wrong

Before digging into any specific performance, the key here is just simple regression. The 2022-23 Seattle Kraken, to that point, had the highest even strength shooting percentage of any team since 2007, excluding the shortened Lockout and Pandemic seasons. That shooting percentage fell from a literal generational-high of 10.56% last year to the third-worst mark this year – a paltry 7.66%. It dropped them from the second-highest scoring team at even strength last season to the 28^th-ranked scoring rate this season. That natural regression hurt everyone.

At the top of the list is Matty Beniers. After a Rookie of the Year effort in 2022-23 that saw 24 goals and 57 points in 80 games, he fell to 15 goals and 37 points in 77 games. He saw large drops in personal shooting percentage, team shooting percentage with him on the ice, involvement in goals scored with him on the ice, individual shot rate, team shot rate with him on the ice, and on and on. To crystallize his issue: his even strength shooting percentage was cut in half (16.8% to 8.3%) while the team’s shooting percentage with him on the ice excluding his personal shots and goals fell from 11.3% to 7.5%.

Of course, he wasn’t quite that bad… (may10)

[Follow the link for Mike's full analysis…] 

6. Travis Green was introduced as the new coach for Ottawa on Wednesday. I wrote about his time in Vancouver and why he could be good for the top Senators skaters in the fantasy game. It is a very interesting offseason ahead in Ottawa and, by happenstance, I wrote about their 2023-24 season and their future later in these Ramblings. (may9)

7. Jonathan Drouin was back on the ice late this week as he works his way back from injury. Drouin is a big part of the team in that he can play on the top line with Nathan MacKinnon, leaving two of Mikko Rantanen, Artturi Lehkonen, and Valeri Nichushkin on the second line. It just helps put everyone in their proper roles, but he still seems a way off. (may9)

8. I went six for eight in the first round, only missing a perfect score because of Arturs Silovs and the Dallas Stars. Unfortunately, that also means that my Cup pick is out, as I had Vegas pulling off the back-to-back. Alas, it’s a wide-open year, and I could realistically see any of the remaining teams pulling out the win, though in Vancouver’s case it would require a substantial elevation of play from Elias Lindholm and Elias Pettersson.

Lindholm’s play in Vancouver has dropped his fantasy stock substantially, but it has also affected his projected salary. Preliminarily he is showing in the $6M range on a new contract, looking more like a Nazem Kadri level asset in free agency rather than the $8-9 million asset we were expecting back in the fall. Some timely scoring this round could really turn around that narrative. (may8)

9. My picks for the second round were published with the rest of the Dobber crew here. I have Edmonton in five, and Colorado in seven to make up the West. Over in the East, I should have had Florida in six, as Florida had sat too long and was likely going to be flat-footed in game one. In the last matchup, I have Carolina over the Rangers in six. (may8)

10. Valeri Nichushkin had a seven-game playoff goal streak entering Saturday action. That’s an extremely impressive run as a cherry on top of his career-high 53 points this season in only 54 games. If he can stay healthy next season then 70 points feels like the floor. His shot rate and scoring were a little slow to return when Nichushkin came back from a mid-season absence, which was all that held him back from his second-straight campaign averaging at least three shots per game. He has kept up that three-shot-per-game rate in the playoffs as well, and a higher shot rate should stick assuming he plays heavy minutes alongside Casey Mittelstadt next year as well – as he is more of a passer, and only averages about 1.5 shots per game, leaving plenty to go around. (may8)

11. I’m currently working on updating all of my databases, so the latest cap skater and goalie rankings as well as the salary projections will be out around the end of the month.

If you have any players you want opinions or projections though in the meantime, I’m happy to discuss.

The top three projected salaries right now belong to Sam Reinhart, Jake Guentzel, and Moritz Seider. No surprises there. It was interesting to see Thomas Harley in the top-10 though. Deservedly so, and especially with Miro Heiskanen setting the bar there, we can’t rule out a similar long-term contract offered to Harley. It might be best for the team to try to go that route this year too. As long as the Stars can manage the cap well with all these young players they have, they are going to be a great team for a long time. (may8)

12. Quick thought: While everyone is talking about the Iginla connection with Jarome Iginla’s Calgary Flames possibly able to take Tij Iginla at pick number nine (I think it happens), it doesn’t seem like anyone has lined up the other possible family connection at the back end of the first round. That would be Cole Hutson to the Montreal Canadiens at pick #28, to play with his brother Lane. The Canadiens don’t necessarily need to grab a defenseman, and word is they are targeting a forward with their number-five pick, but it would likely be very hard to pass on completing the set if they have the opportunity. (may8)

13. Winnipeg Jets head coach Rick Bowness announced his retirement on Monday. Bowness was Winnipeg’s coach for these last two seasons, leading them to the playoffs twice. He had a Cup Final run with Dallas in the 2020 Bubble Playoffs but was never able to lift the Stanley Cup. Regardless, he seems to be held in high esteem by a lot of people in the game and, as a fellow New Brunswicker, it’s always nice to see someone from this area of the country succeed at that level. All the best to him and his family in his retirement. (may7)

14. Detroit signed prospect defenseman Axel Sandin-Pellikka to his entry-level deal. He just finished a successful season in Sweden and the first-round pick from 2023 is now on his way to North America. He is likely to spend a season in the AHL as Detroit has six defensemen signed for 2024-25 and that doesn’t include Simon Edvinsson, who was a staple in the lineup late in the season. (may7)

15. The New Jersey Devils have signed defenseman Seamus Casey to his entry-level contract, per Amanda Stein. Casey was drafted in the second round of the 2022 Draft and spent the last two seasons playing college hockey for the powerhouse Michigan team. He had a couple of very good seasons for the Wolverines and is now set to become part of the Devils’ system.

There probably should be patience exercised as far as fantasy hockey value is concerned. Both Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler have four years left on their contracts, John Marino has three, and both Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec are far ahead of Casey on the NHL depth chart. It seems likely Casey spends at least one year in the AHL, maybe getting a call-up here and there. It is another future piece to the New Jersey blue line being added to the system, though, as they keep building a lot of young defensive depth. (may7)

16. Second-Round Preview: I’m going to look at the upcoming second round in detail and make some predictions based on the current lineups. The PGR number is my player game ratings, which is based off the final regular-season stats and doesn’t include the playoffs so far.

I’m going to look at the playoff performance of some key players on each team and see where their rating from the regular season stands up against their playoff performance to date. Keep in mind that the ratings can fluctuate quite a bit until each player gets 15-20 games under their belt. Still, it’s an indication of overall play on a game-by-game basis.

Teams are broken down by Team Overall, by player, by position, by line or pairing and by overall forwards, defense or goalie. (may6)

[Follow the link for Grant's breakdowns…]

17. Players elevating their games in the playoffs: I don’t usually like to use my player game ratings for anything under 15-20 games during the regular season, but in the playoffs, players don’t have the time afforded to them to not elevate their games and not every player is capable of doing just that.

We are going to go through each playoff team and see which player or players were able to raise their level of play from the regular season in the first round. Conversely, we will look at the players who struggled compared to their regular season. (may6)

[Follow the link for Grant's full list…]

18. Although the low-scoring playoff games are a league-wide trend, the Leafs have to be left wondering why a team built around the core four has trouble scoring during the playoffs. They’ve been held to two or fewer goals in 13 of their last 14 playoff games. Add that to the pile of continued playoff failures and it’s crystal clear that something has to change for the Leafs. It may be Brendan Shanahan. It may be Sheldon Keefe (Ed. note: Keefe was in fact fired late this week). It may be one of the core four – my guess is that Mitch Marner would be the player most likely traded out of that group, if there is a trade. Most likely Keefe is done. But they can’t keep rolling out the exact same crew and expect different results. (may5)

19. Auston Matthews, Elias Pettersson, and Jaccob Slavin were announced as the three Lady Byng Trophy finalists on Saturday. When these finalists are announced, I like to check the penalty minute totals for each nominee. Not that having the fewest penalty minutes is the exact criteria for winning the award, but I’m sure it factors in. 

Matthews: 81 GP, 20 PIM
Pettersson: 82 GP, 12 PIM
Slavin: 81 GP, 8 PIM (may5)

20. Slavin won the Lady Byng award in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season, having taken just a single minor penalty in 52 games. Since then, he’s picked up 10, 8, and 8 PIM, all seasons in which he has played at least 75 games. That’s a very low penalty minute total for a defenseman, as no d-man that played at least 60 games had that few penalty minutes in 2023-24. About 25 other defensemen with at least 60 games have between 10-20 penalty minutes, while overall penalty minutes have been on the decline in recent years.

I would think there’s a lot of subjectivity in who wins the Lady Byng because it involves the eye test and reputation. However, playing a position like defense at a high level (60 CF%) without putting your team at risk shorthanded should say something, which is why I’d be fine with Slavin winning the Lady Byng.

By the way, among all players who had played at least 60 games, the top nine player CF% (percentage of on-ice shot attempts for) were all from Carolina. Slavin was included among that group. They’ve been a strong Corsi team the last few years, but it shows how dominant their system can be in games. (may5)

21. An update from the man himself. From Dobber’s X account:

Long overdue update

I was recovering well from my March 13 transplant. March 29 – all good, progressing well. But then things took a turn. March 30 I got pneumonia again and had difficulty breathing and was put in ICU. March 31 they had to put me in a coma and machines were breathing for me.

> April 5 they brought me out of the coma. My 50th birthday was just me unconscious trying to live.

Anyway, once awake, I had zero motor functions. I could move my head, eyes, fingers, toes, but had no voice nor strength. Four weeks.  later, rehab has been going well. I can now speak hoarsely, and stand on my own. I am eating again, though food is tasteless. Arms and legs getting strength. As soon as I can walk, they will send me home and the nightmare ends. They are shocked and impressed with my progress these few weeks.

Whoa. That’s quite a scare. However, it’s also a relief knowing that his health is headed in the right direction. I don’t know when Dobber will return to action, but he should be given all the time he needs to recover and return to full strength. I do know that he is itching to return to Dobber Hockey as soon as he is able to. <

We’re all pulling for you, Dobber!

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Frozen Tools has a new report that generates data from NHL Edge. I haven’t had time to pore over all of this data yet, but it could be useful in the same sense that stats such as pitch speed and exit velocity are used for fantasy baseball. Some more possibilities for deep-dive research on a particular player, especially when comparing one season to another as well as what might lie ahead. Regular-season data only so far – no playoff data.

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Have a good week, folks!

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