Ramblings: Silovs Stands Tall; Barkov Burns Bruins; Underrated Zegras, Kurashev, Gaudreau & More (May 13)

Brennan Des

2024-05-13

Panthers 3, Bruins 2 (Panthers lead series 3-1)

What a difference a week can make. Last Monday, the Bruins had stolen both Game 1 and home-ice advantage in their second-round series with the Panthers. Three-straight losses later and Boston is on the brink of elimination, heading to enemy territory for a do-or-die Game 5. 

After showing his first signs of struggles in these playoffs during Games 2 and 3, Jeremy Swayman bounced back on Sunday, stopping 38 of the 41 shots he faced. Unfortunately for him, Boston only managed 18 shots of its own – including just two in the third period. Florida has outshot the Bruins by a wide margin in every game of this series so far:

Game 1: 39-29

Game 2: 33-15

Game 3: 33-17

Game 4: 41-18

Anton Lundell and Evan Rodrigues led Florida with two points each, but captain Aleksander Barkov proved to be the most valuable Panther on Sunday, scoring a beautiful game-winning goal. 

Bruins' captain Brad Marchand missed Game 4 after suffering an upper-body injury from a hit taken in Game 3. He's officially day-to-day. In his absence, Boston's top-six featured David Pastrnak beside Jake DeBrusk and Morgan Geekie, while Charlie Coyle skated between Danton Heinen and Trent Frederic. With all due respect to the Bruins, there's a chasm between their top-six and Florida's top-six right now. 

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Canucks 4, Oilers 3 (Canucks lead series 2-1)

On Sunday afternoon, Thatcher Demko was making headlines for his progress in injury recovery, reaching a stage where he could face shots. On Sunday night, it was Arturs Silovs making headlines for different reasons. The 23–year-old netminder made 42 saves to help Vancouver take Game 3, lessening the urgency for Demko's return. Silovs stood especially tall in the second and third, where Vancouver was outshot 36-7. 

Stuart Skinner's performance stood in stark contrast to Silovs on Sunday. Skinner has started eight games for Edmonton in these playoffs. He's posted a save percentage above .900 in just two of those games – both against LA. He's yet to post a save percentage above .850 against the Canucks. 

Brock Boeser and Elias Lindholm led the way for Vancouver, posting two goals apiece. 

Special teams were a significant factor in this game as each team scored two goals with the man advantage. In fact, all three of Edmonton's goals were scored with the man advantage since their third came in the dying minutes at 6-on-5. Edmonton was a perfect 12/12 on the penalty kill against LA in Round 1, but they haven't been as successful against Vancouver, killing just six of nine.

With a goal on Sunday, Mattias Ekholm has now scored in all three games against the Canucks. This run didn't come out of nowhere as he was on fire to close out the regular season, racking up 26 points in his final 30 appearances. That's insane production for a defenseman that doesn't see top-unit power-play time. Although a lack of power-play opportunity limits his fantasy ceiling, being a good defenseman on an offensively gifted team might make him more valuable than top power-play quarterbacks on offensively challenged teams. Perhaps akin to Devon Toews from a situational standpoint? Watching Ekholm right now, it's fair to wonder what's in store for other players who closed out the regular season in style…

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As you prepare for 2024-25 fantasy drafts, you'll look at stats from this past season to gauge a player's recent form. Season-long point totals are easy to digest and readily available, so they'll probably be one of the first numbers you look at. If you're wondering how well a player performed last year, it's natural to check how many points they put up. However, overall point totals can sometimes be misleading when player performance fluctuates over the course of a season. That's important because skaters who end the year on a high note may be able to carry momentum into the next season. Below you'll find are a few players who fit that bill. These names are likely to be undervalued at the draft table because their final point total doesn't capture how well they played most recently. 

Trevor Zegras

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This past regular season was a tumultuous one for the 23-year-old Duck. Last year, offseason contract negotiations went down to the wire and extended into the fall, so Zegras didn't really get a full-fledged training camp to prepare for the 2023-24 campaign. Barely a month into the season, a groin injury took him out of the lineup. It sounds like he played through that injury at times, which would explain his substandard performance for much of the year. Shortly after returning from that injury, he broke his ankle and was sidelined for two and a half months. Fortunately, that extended absence also gave him time to recover from the previous groin issue. He eased his way back into the lineup and posted eight points over his final eight games of the season. If I were you, I wouldn't put too much stock into his total of 15 points in 31 games. This is a player with elite offensive creativity who scored at a 65-point pace in his previous two seasons. 

Andrei Kuzmenko

Kuzmenko followed up an impressive 73-point rookie campaign with a sad 46-point sophomore season. Although he struggled to produce during the portion of the 2023-24 campaign he spent in Vancouver, he was actually really productive after moving to Calgary, putting up 25 points through 29 games with the Flames. The difference in output might be attributed to a difference in expectation. With Vancouver being one of the league's top teams to start the year, there was a high standard of play required and Kuzmenko wasn't really meeting that standard in the defensive end. In Calgary, expectations weren't as high for the team, so Kuzmenko might have had a little more freedom to play his game. Considering the current state of Calgary's roster, the team probably won't be expected to contend next year, which means Kuzmenko should still have a long leash – setting the stage for another 60-plus point season. 

Philipp Kurashev

It seems strange to have Kurashev on this list since most people will think of this past season as a positive one for him. Rightfully so, as he broke out with 54 points after flirting with the 20-point mark in each of his first three years. Still, while Kurashev's overall output is reason for optimism, I don't think it evokes enough of it. To help you achieve that higher level of optimism, I'll refer you to his final quarter where he led the Blackhawks with 22 points in 22 games. Given Chicago's rebuilding status, Kurashev is virtually guaranteed top-line, top-power play time beside Connor Bedard again next year. 

Dylan Guenther

Guenther falls into a similar category as Kurashev: young players regarded highly based on a strong season – but maybe not highly enough considering how well they played down the stretch. 35 points in 45 games represents a solid sophomore season for Guenther, but a closer look reveals reason for even more excitement. He closed out the campaign with 23 points in his final 23 appearances, averaging nearly 17 minutes of action a night and seeing 70% of Arizona's time with the man advantage. Guenther's a highly skilled shooter who should get the deployment necessary to post top-tier offensive numbers. 

Johnny Gaudreau

Based on points-per-game, last season was the least productive of Gaudreau's career. Although he finished with an underwhelming 60 points, that total is weighed down by an incredibly poor first half. He rebounded in the second half, posting 35 points in his final 39 appearances – a 74-point pace. Early indications suggest he's carried that momentum to the international stage as he has three points through two games for Team USA at the IIHF World Championship. His fantasy stock is quite low right now, so you'd probably be able to acquire him late in fantasy drafts, leaving lots of room for him to outperform his draft position. 

Viktor Arvidsson

Most players on this list possess a lackluster point total that hides a late-season hot streak. Arvidsson is a bit of a different case as he doesn't have an early stretch of poor play to overshadow his hot streak, since he missed so much time due to injury. He spent the first four months of the campaign recovering from back surgery, returned for four games and then missed a month due to a lower-body injury. He made a more permanent return to the lineup and closed out the season with 13 points in his final 14 games. Out of sight, out of mind is a prevalent proverb in fantasy hockey. Don't be surprised to see Arvidsson slip in fantasy drafts as a result of his extended absence this past year. If you need a player who can flirt with 60 points and average three shots per game, look for Arvidsson in the bargain bin. 

Kyle Palmieri 

I hesitate to give a ringing endorsement of a 33-year-old forward on a questionable Islanders' roster, but I'd be remiss if I didn't point out Palmieri's strong play down the stretch. His point total of 54 may bring a ho-hum reaction, but he deserves praise for posting 15 goals and seven assists for 22 points in his final 24 games. Prominent power-play time made Palmieri an intriguing fantasy asset this year and I expect that to continue next season. 

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There are obviously other candidates that weren't listed above, but don't worry, we'll have an entire offseason to discuss them :)

Thanks for reading! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 22 - 12:12 NYR vs CAR
Dec 22 - 17:12 T.B vs FLA
Dec 22 - 17:12 UTA vs ANA
Dec 22 - 17:12 WSH vs L.A
Dec 22 - 20:12 EDM vs OTT
Dec 22 - 20:12 COL vs SEA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency FLA Players
26.8 CARTER VERHAEGHE MATTHEW TKACHUK ALEKSANDER BARKOV
22.3 SAM REINHART EETU LUOSTARINEN ANTON LUNDELL
18.7 MACKIE SAMOSKEVICH EVAN RODRIGUES SAM BENNETT

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