Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Given the lack of negative response, I am going to make a "Who am I?" question part of each Forum Buzz column. If you missed the explanation last month, there is a thread in the Forums where someone thinks of a real life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going. So for your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" for this month. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.

CLUE #1 – I'm a retired North America forward

CLUE #2 – Despite being a first round pick, I spent two seasons in the AHL and debuted in the NHL right before I turned 22

CLUE #3 – I played in 83 games one season despite not having been traded during the season

CLUE #4 – I had one point per game season in my career, and followed that with a 65+ point pace season, yet I was still traded less than two seasons later

CLUE #5 – I played two seasons for a team then later in my career returned to play for that team again, but by then they had a different name despite not having changed their location

CLUE #6 – In my point per game season, I averaged just under one PPPt per every other game, but I never again bested 20 PPPts in any single season

CLUE #7 – After finishing my NHL career, consisting of just under 1000 total games, I played one season in Europe

CLUE #8 – Immediately after I retired I got into coaching

CLUE #9 – I coached one NHL team for four full seasons, with them making the playoffs only once while I was at the helm, was an interim head coach in 2023-24, and am now a head coach once again, albeit for a different team than the one for which I was interim head coach

Hopefully you got it. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who it is. Now onto the regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming.

Topic #1 – In a 12 team H2H Most Cats Wins; Keep 6 (winner keeps 7) league with categories of G A PPP +/- SHP SOG HIT BLK PIM // W SV GAA SV% SHO and rosters of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G, plus 5 bench, which six should be kept among Connor McDavid, J.T. Miller, Sidney Crosby, Timo Meier (these four are favored by the person who posted the thread), Matt Boldy, Alex DeBrincat, Alexis Lafreniere, Noah Dobson, Brock Boeser, John Tavares?

McDavid and Miller not only are slam dunk keeps, but likely two of the top-five forwards in the format. I worry that Miller could start to break down given his style of play; however, until that does happen, he's multi-cat gold…..heck….platinum! As for the other two who are favored, I'm not saying no, but I'm nor prepared to put them in the must keep pile.

I'm for sure making room for Dobson though. Not only would it be unwise to fail to keep a d-man in a league where rearguards comprise 40% of starting skater line-ups, but Dobson, like Mathew Barzal, was finally unshackled this season. Yes, he fared worse once Patrick Roy took over, but I wonder if it was more about Dobson just wearing down in view of the fact his ice time was up more than four minutes versus last season. Come 2023-24 he should do at worst the same, and quite possibly a good bit better. He's a lock.

That's half the six. Upon reconsideration, I do think Meier passes muster. Had he not awoken from his season-long slumber in the last quarter I might be hesitant; yet not only was there that, but it was also revealed he was playing hurt for a chunk of the campaign. He likely won't be as much of an overall multi-cat stud with New Jersey, but his points could rise, making it a wash. Thus, he is one of the keeps in my book.

After all is said and done, I do keep Crosby. Not only was his SOG rate higher than it had been in nearly a decade, but his SH% was unaffected. Plus, once Jake Guentzel was moved Crosby seemed to realize he had to "do it himself" more, and lo-and-behold he had by far the best quarter of his season. Also, the Pens are going to do anything and everything they can to have Crosby be a point per game player next season, so he can break the all time record that is held by Wayne Gretzky. So although there's gray in Crosby's beard, I think he is still a player who deserves to be kept.

The last spot is a toughie. Tavares will be a 2025 UFA, and, as such, will be motivated to play well. He also still shoots a great deal and should remain part of Toronto's PP1, as if the team blows things up chances are it won't lead to Tavares getting a new address given his Cap Hit. On the other hand, Boeser made great strides this season; yet when all was said and done he had only 27 points in his last 37 games and his SH% was 19.1%, this from a player whose career rate was barely above 13.0% coming into this season. Still, Boeser does give the chance for a stack with Miller, which has lure. But Tavares averages nearly a SOG more per game, plus hits more. So I'd probably opt for him, but it's close enough that I could see Boeser being the choice too in hopes this was a stepping stone season and that he'll be glued to Miller next season.

Topic #2 – In a 10 team, H2H – 1 win league with categories of G, A, SOG, PPP, FOW, H, B, Wins, GAA, SV%, SHO (4 weekly goalie appearances minimum), and with rosters 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 1Ut, 4D, 3G, 6Bench, 2-I/R+, 1NA, which six of the following should be kept:

C: Sam Bennett
LW: Evander Kane, Kirill Kaprizov
LW/C: Leon Draisaitl, Tim Stutzle
RW: Mitch Marner
RW/C: Tage Thompson, Martin Necas
RW/LW: Andrei Svechnikov
D: Rasmus Dahlin, Evan Bouchard, Mikhail Sergachev, Radko Gudas
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Stuart Skinner, Filip Gustavsson

As usual, let's get the sure things out of the way, those being Draisaitl, Kaprizov, and Bouchard. Who else is in the conversation? I'd say Marner, Stutzle, Thompson, Dahlin, Svechnikov, Vasy, and even Skinner.

Looking at that list, in a league where 60 players are kept, and where goalies account for 40% of the categories, a case could be made that all are "deserving" of being kept. Given that, the way to go is keeps plus trades.

The first trade I'd make is Svechnikov and Vasy for a goalie who's younger and with better peripherals and lower mileage. Try to pry Igor Shesterkin out of the hands of his owner. Or if not Shesterkin, then Thatcher Demko. Vasy did do better as the season unfolded, but his stats have been significantly worse for a couple of seasons, plus Tampa for sure has peaked. His name recognition still holds value, and so does Svech's, even though he continues to stay stuck in neutral when it comes to production. Although the Carolina top six might have up to two departures in the forms of Jake Guentzel and Teuvo Teravainen, I don't see Svech being a major beneficiary. He just does not seem to have "it". Plus, looking at wingers who had a scoring rate of 0.85 to 1.0 points per game from ages 19 to 23, no one else in NHL history did so as many times as Svech's four, and since 2000-01 the only others to do so three times were Patrik Laine, Johnny Gaudreau, and Patrick Kane. In the case of Kane, he was a victim of being on some bad Blackhawk teams, but the other two are cautionary tales, and suggest that Svech, having not gotten better as yet, is unlikely to do so down the road, plus he's venturing into Band-Aid-Boy territory, which could only hurt his value even more. Trade him – and Vasy – before Svech's new car smell wears off. If one of those goalies can't be obtained, then settle for picks.

That leaves Marner, Stutzle, Thompson, Dahlin and Skinner for three spots, or two if the trade of Vas and Svech lands a netminder. The one that sticks out, and not in a good way, is Skinner. With half the goalie categories not being volume-based, he loses a good bit of his luster, as I see him as perhaps the second coming of peak Pens era Marc-Andre Fleury, but not yet nearly as well rounded. He might still improve; but for now he's not a keeper given your other options.

Marner is a keeper. Yes, he's a scapegoat right now, and a seismic shift could be coming in Toronto, where Marner may find himself on another team come October. Even if that happens, we're talking about one of the most consistent fantasy performers of recent years, and a player who's among the top ten in points per game among active players. Also, here's the list of other wingers in NHL history who scored at a 1.1+ point per game pace in each of their ages 21-26 seasons: Jaromir Jagr, Luc Robitaille, Mike Bossy, and Jari Kurri. Although I wouldn't say Marner is a carbon copy of any, it's still fine company in which to find oneself. He's a keep.

It boils down to Dahlin, Thompson, and Stutzle for two or perhaps one spot. All three are coming off disappointing seasons versus expectations. By Q4 Thompson had started to right his ship, while Dahlin, despite being disappointing points-wise, still stuffed the stat sheet. Stutzle had injury issues for at least part of the season, and was snake-bit on the PP. Personally, I like the Sabres to rebound big time, so the lure of both Dahlin and Thompson is attractive, as is the fact that Thompson, like Stutzle, has dual position eligibility. Those would be my two; and if it could only be one, I'd opt for Dahlin, as he was too good in 2022-23 to not be able to reach great heights again. I'd certainly try to package Stutzle and Skinner in trade for picks though too.

Topic #3 – A GM who won their 12 team league can keep 6 players, with each needing to be kept in the round they were drafted/owned, but no more than two from rounds 1-5. Rosters are 2LW, 2RW, 2C, 4D, 2U, 2G and categories are G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, Hit, Blk; GS, W, GAA, SA, SV%. Their options are:

 Connor Hellebuyck – 2nd round

Thatcher Demko – 3rd round
Nikita Kucherov – 4th round
Joel Eriksson Ek – 6th round
Noah Dobson – 7th round

Brandon Montour – 8th round

Travis Konecny – 10th round
Jason Robertson – 11th round
Sam Bennett – 15th round
Tom Wilson – 15th round
Jake Allen – 18th round
Jonathan Drouin – 18th round
Dylan Strome – 18th round
Pavel Zacha – 18th round

In the thread it was indicated this will be a snake draft. That is important since Hellebuyck would replace the 13th overall pick, whereas Demko would replace the 37th. That's a major difference. Although Hellebuyck is true #1 big time goalie, he's also over two years older than Demko and comes with a lot of miles given how much he's played. Demko took major strides and Vancouver is poised to be a strong team; so in view of a larger than it would appear difference between keeping them, I'd go with Demko. Keeping both is not an option according to league rules, as only two players from rounds 1-5 can be kept, and Kucherov is a lock.

The only other lock is Robertson, leaving two more spots. I can see the lures of Wilson and Bennett give their stat stuffing; however, I don't think either one is worthy of a spot in such a shallow league. It would be one thing if they could be counted upon for 65+ points, but with Wilson he still hits and blocks shots, plus shoots, but his points are nosediving. Bennett is not trending in the right direction either, and that includes in the multi-cat areas.

The big question is whether to keep a defenseman. They comprise two of 12 starters, so it goes to figure that one of six of them should be a keeper. Also, the fact that Dobson, who had not yet broken out, was a 7th rounder before last season means the price for rearguard is likely quite high. Between him and Montour, I'm keeping Dobson, since although Montour did right his ship pretty well after a bumpy return, his stock will have fallen enough to put him into redraft territory, whereas with Dobson as I noted above he did quite well and might have only slowed as the season wore on due to his ice time having risen so much and becoming worn down.

That leaves one spot. Eriksson Ek is quite attractive at round 6th, and likely "worth it" given all he brings to the table. But is he enough better than Strome or Zacha in the 18th round? Zacha treaded water, but still is likely to remain a top six fixture for Boston, and he hits. Strome is not good at all in multi-cat, but is trending up in points despite Washington trending down. Still, he might have a ceiling given the team he's on. One thing again is Eriksson Ek is more like a round five pick in that he'd be selected 61st. Is he that much better than what could be had at that spot, especially with the rule where no team can keep more than two players who were drafted in rounds 1-5? It's close, but probably not, plus the Wild will be able to spend next summer so Eriksson Ek's value might take a hit after this season. I think I'd going Zacha. It's not a sexy keep, but a safe one.

Topic #4 – For a 15 team, keep 8, points league (9F, 4D, 2G) where young d-men are coveted, who should be kept among: Jesper Bratt, Roope Hintz, Clayton Keller, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Mark Scheifele, Rasmus Dahlin, Dougie Hamilton, Jake Oettinger, Jonathan Huberdeau, Timo Meier, Jake Sanderson?

A total of 120 players are kept, and keepers presumably represent over half of each team's starting line-up. Why are those important details? Because that, plus each team's keeper options, will dictate whether their keepers should be dictated by winning now, building for the future, or some sort of middle ground. My view is if this team simply kept its best players, it would have keepers that would rank the team in the 10th through 15th range. In other words, this team should make keeper decisions with the future more so in mind than the present, and, in turn, also consider trading players with immediate value for more picks or players who stand to be productive for longer, even if they're less productive right now.

Scheifele, for example, is a perfect trade candidate, as he should make some team's top eight, but is of little use to this team in view of it not competing in the near term. I'm also moving RNH, who – and this surprised me – is now 31 years old. But GMs will still have recent enough memories of what RNH did in 2022-23 as to overvalue him. Seize upon that and get better value to him than he should deserve to net you. In a perfect world, Huberdeau, Meier, and Hamilton would be dealt too; however, their values are too low and can only rise, so I'd consider keeping one or more or even all of them with the intention of selling midseason or next offseason when hopefully they'll have rebounded.

Ideal keepers are Oettinger, Dahlin, and Keller, as they should still be quite good when this team is ready to compete a few years down the road. Even if young D weren't prized, I'd keep Sanderson, whose future is poised to be very bright. That leaves four spots for Bratt, Hintz, Hamilton, Huberdeau, and Meier. Probably the one to toss back is Huberdeau, as he just seems lost. Yes, Meier is not a great points only option; however, he bounced back significantly in the fourth quarter, giving hope he could shine again. Let Huberdeau go back into the draft, as the chances of him rising to a level higher than Meier or Hamilton is too remote, and Hintz and Bratt are nice in that they can be either keeps or trades depending on how things progress with this team's rebuild.

Topic #5 – We saw from the regular season and playoffs that Patrick Roy was not afraid to turn to Semyon Varlamov over Ilya Sorokin. Could that stretch into next season too? On the one hand Sorokin's new deal kicks in at $8.25M per season for 2024-25, which is exactly three times what Varlamov makes, but on the other Varlamov is inked for three more seasons.

Sorokin owners, already not thrilled with him having taken a step back over the majority of the season, became downright concerned when new coach Roy started to look to Semyon Varlamov quite a bit, including in the very important Stanley Cup playoffs. What they should've realized is this was foreseeable.

Why is that? When Roy coached the Avs to 51 wins in 2013-14, who was the #1 backstop? None other than Varlamov. Seeing Roy look to Varlamov, even ten seasons later, should not have come as a shock. The big question though is what will happen next, since Varlamov is inked to a deal that should indeed keep him in Long Island for three more seasons.

As noted, Sorokin's new deal kicks in next season, putting him into the top echelon of goalies in terms of cap hits, and threefolding Varly's deal. If we look at 2023-24, 11 active goalies made more than $5M, and other than Philipp Grubauer and Merzlikins, both of whom were injured for stretches of the season, all played 46+ games. And if we just focus on the three who will be making in the neighborhood of Srokin's salary next season, they are Sergei Bobrovsky, Connor Hellebuyck, and Andrei Vasilevskiy, each of whom is a stalwart in net for their team. To think that Sorokin is going to be pushed aside is not realistic.

The other thing to keep in mind is he wasn't as bad as he seemed. He still had a double digit positive GSAA, and he had a .909 SV% despite facing 40+ SOG per game a whopping 12 times in his 56 games played, when no one else who appeared in more games had to face that many even seven times. And despite this, and only having two shutouts, he had eight additional games with a SV% of .950 or more. And his seven games of a SV% under .850 were tied for the lowest among any goalie who started more than 50 games last season. Yes, Sorokin is going to start being paid an amount that will require him to step up even more; however, the Isles did not do him any favors as a team.

The issue is the 2024-25 Isles don't stand to be much better, as all their UFAs are inexpensive, such that they won't be likely to bring in high priced talent. But with Roy able to have a full season to shape things, there is reason to hope for improvement. In the end, Sorokin should be the go to guy despite the presence of Varlamov and Roy's favoritism toward him.

Topic #6 – Clearly Vasili Podkolzin has disappointed. Does he not get qualified? And even if he does, is it likely he opts to go to Europe? If he does stay with Vancouver, what should we expect?

There is no sugarcoating it – Podkolzin's time here has not gone well. His games played and ice time has dropped every season, when if anything it should be expected to be rising. And his AHL stats during the past two seasons are not great either, so he isn't forcing the hand of the Canucks.  Still, I can't imagine he isn't qualified, given the number of Canuck forward UFAs.

When things like this occur, there is always chatter about the player packing up and heading back to Russia, rather than re-upping as an RFA. Yet for all the times that was feared, it rarely has occurred, or at least not for someone still as young as Podkolzin.

Look no further than Filip Zadina, who is still making a go of it in the NHL despite his lack of success and likewise being an early draft pick. The same holds true for Jesse Puljujarvi and Denis Gurianov, both of whom were early picks who chose to play in the AHL in 2023-24 even after far more NHL games played than Podkolzin. Yes, there was Vitali Kravtsov who did opt to return to Russia, but he had bounced between Russia and the NHL before deciding to choose Russia. The threat of Podkolzin leaving the NHL is likely less realistic than it might seem.

If he does stay though, what happens next? As noted, Vancouver has several (four to be exact) UFA forwards, each of whom is a mainstay in the line-up. That seemingly provides an opening for Podkolzin to play on the team for an entire season. The issue is most of those who are leaving are in the bottom six, and that is not a situation where Podkolzin is likely to thrive. Still, Vancouver is deep enough that they could ice three scoring lines, meaning that if Podkolzin is not in the top six he still could have a chance to play with talented linemates.

I think the Canucks will give Podkolzin another season or even two of real chances to make an impact before they cut the cord. Will it work? Tough to say. It didn't with those I mentioned above, yet in some cases, like Pavel Zacha, it took time but worked out. If you're in a true dynasty, I'd keep Podkolzin and hope.

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TRIVIA ANSWER – THE PLAYER IS…………..Travis Green!

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.