21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Dobber Sports

2024-05-19

Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

1. Jeremy Swayman certainly can’t be blamed for the Bruins’ exit from the playoffs, as he finishes the playoffs with a 2.15 GAA, .933 SV%, and 83.3 quality start percentage. Given the fact that he played in 12 of the Bruins’ 13 games in the playoffs, Swayman appears to be the goalie of the future for the Bruins, who should now view Linus Ullmark as a trade chip. Having two high-caliber goalies is a luxury for a team facing the salary cap, and the Bruins could use help at other positions. In addition, goaltending prospect Brandon Bussi appears to be ready for a full-time NHL role next season after two strong seasons in the AHL.

The Bruins may not receive a true #1 center for Ullmark, but acquiring any top-6 forward could help the Bruins tremendously. David Pastrnak, Marchand, Charlie Coyle, and Pavel Zacha were the only Bruins forwards to exceed 40 points this season. Morgan Geekie and Matt Poitras could develop into top-6 forwards for the Bruins. However, a lack of scoring depth was apparent in this series against the Panthers, where the Bruins averaged just over two goals per game.  

The Bruins don’t have too much in the way of UFAs coming off the books, with Jake DeBrusk the most prominent name. They project to have over $20 million in cap space, so they could make a notable addition or two. Swayman will be an RFA, so he will need to be compensated well, particularly if he is the starter. Ullmark will be on the final year of his contract with a $5 million cap hit if he is not moved. (may18)

2. Alexandar Georgiev was thought to be the weak link for the Avalanche heading into the playoffs. His playoff numbers turned out to be relatively average (2.77 GAA, .897 SV%, 54.5 quality start %), showing that he wasn’t a complete disaster while playing well at times. Georgiev has one more year left on his contract, so it will be interesting to see whether the Avalanche try to re-sign him or decide to go a different direction.

The Avalanche’s core players are under contract for next season, but they still have many other roster spots to fill with just over $15 million in cap space. One player they should make a serious effort at re-signing is Jonathan Drouin. The idea of reuniting Drouin with former junior teammate Nathan MacKinnon wasn’t just a good idea on paper. Drouin rebounded from some rough, injury-riddled seasons with the Habs with a career-high 56 points while staying healthy for nearly all of the season. The absence of Nichushkin for at least the first month of the season and possibly longer means that the Avs could use a scoring winger like Drouin. (may18)

3. Some potential good news for Colorado is that Gabriel Landeskog is working toward a return, although Jared Bednar admitted after Game 6 against the Stars that Landeskog still wasn’t close to returning during the playoffs. It sounds like Landeskog could be ready for next season, but we’ll have to wait for further updates. Landeskog has missed two whole seasons, so he’s very much a wild card production-wise.

Game 6 was the last NHL game for Zach Parise, who signed with the Avalanche in early February and announced he would retire after the season. Parise finishes a solid career with over 1200 games and nearly 900 points, including a career-high 45 goals and 94 points with New Jersey in 2008-09. (may18)

4. The Leafs made the rumored Craig Berube hiring official today. Read the Fantasy Take here.

5. With a 3-1 lead after two periods, the Hurricanes looked to be in a great spot to force a winner-take-all Game 7 after being down 0-3 in their second-round series against the Rangers. But then Chris Kreider recorded a natural hat trick to give the Rangers the lead in the game and the series for good. Kreider’s status for this game wasn’t totally certain, as he took a maintenance day on Wednesday before testing his injury during Thursday’s morning skate. Kreider should have plenty of time to rest his injury before the start of Wednesday's Eastern Conference Final against the Panthers. (may17)

6. The Hurricanes now face an offseason with some major decisions. Jake Guentzel, Teuvo Teravainen, Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce, and Tony DeAngelo are the notable free agents on their roster. Pesce has been rumored to be headed to free agenccentrey for a while, and Guentzel’s asking price might simply be too much for the efficiency-focused Canes to afford. Also, I’d be surprised if the Canes bring back DeAngelo unless it is for something like the league minimum where he can be inserted as a seventh defenseman in a pinch.

Expect some turnover on this roster as Carolina tries to figure out the right formula for getting over the Eastern Conference hump with its current core.

With all of these names (and more), keep in mind that the Canes will need to make re-signing Martin Necas a priority. Necas has been a bargain at $3 million per season and is arbitration-eligible this offseason. In his Salary Cap Projections, Alex has Necas projected for just over $7 million per season and Guentzel projected for nearly $10 million per season. Carolina will need to make some hard decisions. (may17)

7. Big Save Dave will be back in LA. David Rittich has signed a one-year, $1 million contract to remain with the Kings. I would think that Rittich will be the backup for Los Angeles next season, as he posted career highs in all of goals-against average (2.15), save percentage (.921 SV%), and shutouts (3) in limited duty (24 GP).

Both Cam Talbot and Pheonix Copley are unrestricted free agents, and I’d expect the Kings to move on from both with goaltending being a sore spot (sometimes you get what you pay for). I think there’s a deal to be had with Boston, where the framework would involve the Kings acquiring Linus Ullmark and the Bruins adding a forward off the Kings’ roster. I’m not sure if the Kings have an ideal center for the Bruins, although Phillip Danault seems like the most likely center to be traded. Unless the Bruins settle for a winger. (may17)

8. Connor Ingram was awarded the Bill Masterton Trophy on Wednesday. The award is presented to the player that best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship and dedication to hockey. I wrote about Ingram and Masterton nominee Frederik Andersen in an earlier Ramblings. (may17)

9. RIP Darren Dutchyshen, an absolute giant in Canadian sports broadcasting. He was larger than life both on and off camera. His highlight packages first on ITV Sports Night in Edmonton and then on Sportsdesk/SportsCentre on TSN were must-watch and always entertaining.

10. My offseason reviews of each of the 16 non-playoff teams continues. We have already combed through the seasons of the San Jose Sharks, the Chicago Blackhawks, the Anaheim Ducks, the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Montreal Canadiens, the Arizona Coyotes (now in Utah), the Ottawa Senators, the Seattle Kraken, and the Calgary Flames.

Today, we are getting to the underachieving New Jersey Devils. Let’s look at what went wrong, what went right, and where they go from here. This is all through a fantasy lens, of course.

What Went Wrong

It is unfair to discuss the 2023-24 New Jersey Devils and not discuss how many players they lost in their lineup due to injury or otherwise.

At the top of the list is Dougie Hamilton, who finished top-7 in Norris Trophy voting for three of the prior four seasons before 2023-24. He missed 62 games and at the time of his injury on November 28th, New Jersey was 16th in the league by points percentage and sixth in the league by 5-on-5 expected goal share; they were 25th by points percentage and 14th by expected goal share at 5-on-5 from November 29th onward.

Next up is Jack Hughes. He missed just 20 games, and was good production-wise in those 62 games with 27 goals, 74 points, 31 power play points, and 274 shots. He had shoulder surgery at the end of the season, but considering he missed time in early November with an ‘upper-body’ injury and had shoulder problems in 2022-23, it’s fair to wonder how healthy he was for the 62 games he did play. (may16)

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11. I put out my most recent salary projection numbers on Monday, and you can find them here. The list obviously tops off with Jake Guentzel and Reinhart, but can you guess who number-three is without looking?

He’s a defenseman, but not Brandon Montour. He’s an RFA, but not Thomas Harley. Projected for an $8.45 million cap hit on his new extension is Moritz Seider. The do-it-all defenseman who didn’t quite take the offensive step forward in his third campaign that many were expecting after he slumped a little in his sophomore year. (may15)

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Seider's numbers were actually eerily similar from year two to year three, with an identical 42 points, 140 shots (year two) to 136 (year three), 207 hits to 203, 190 blocks to 212, and 15 power play points to 17. Interestingly, Seider also played all 246 games possible on his ELC, averaging nearly 23 minutes per game for its entirety. In trying to show improvement against his own measuring sticks, Seider hasn’t shown that next step yet, but let’s not forget just how far ahead of his peers he already is at his age.  

Seider also plays some of the toughest minutes in the league, and his offensive zone start percentage has actually gone down each season in the league, despite the team improving marginally around him. His other underlying numbers look solid if unspectacular, hinting that while he may end up with a cap hit close to Miro Heiskanen, the offensive upside may not be quite as high, nor as short in coming. (may15)

12. With Vegas’ incoming cap crunch, it’s unlikely that more than one of Jonathan Marchessault, Michael Amadio, Chandler Stephenson, or Anthony Mantha return. Based on my projections from above, and the space that Vegas currently has, they're going to be making a decision on either Marchessault or Stephenson, and then trying to nickel-and-dime Amadio to see if he will come back on a cheap deal as well. In the end, it could be just the entrance music that Brendan Brisson needs to make an impact. (may15)

13. I’ll get into more prospect stuff and maybe a mock draft at a later date, but that’s for when there’s more space and no playoff games on.  

In the meantime, I did still want to touch on something that’s been brought up over on the forums regarding Macklin Celebrini, and that’s where he plays next year. Not just how many points he scores in the NHL next year, but whether he goes back to college for one more run with good friend Cole Eiserman at BU. We haven’t seen a first-overall pick not play in the NHL for a while now, but the college route does have its advantages with the education, the early end to the season that would still allow Celebrini to sign before the end of the season, as well as playing with Eiserman.  

This kind of decision won’t be made lightly, and it won’t be made until after the draft, when the locations are locked in for Celebrini and Eiserman – it could even end up that both are San Jose picks, as they do have #1 and #14 overall.  

All that to say, that Celebrini might not even be in the Yahoo database next year, and might not be relevant for fantasy squads who are looking to compete for a title in 2025. If he does sign and play though, then a rookie season similar to Jack Eichel‘s might be in the cards, with around 25 goals, 30 assists, three shots per game, and a lot of minuses across a full season. (may15)

14. Moving down to the number-two slot in the draft, it seems like a lot of people are already penciling in Ivan Demidov over Artyom Levshunov (or whoever the top defenseman is on your list). For the Blackhawks though, this pick should be BPA, as they need everything while they are building up. The problem is though, that the next few years are a lot lighter on defensemen than the 2024 draft, while the 2025 and 2026 groups have a nice set of high-octane forwards.

I do think it becomes a discussion point for the Blackhawks on whether they take this opportunity to lock in a top-pairing defenseman, knowing that next year they may have the opportunity to draft an even better forward anyways. As good as Kevin Korchinski and Alex Vlasic may become, they probably aren’t your #1 defenseman as a Stanley Cup contender, regardless of the forward core. If I was confident in the projection for Levshunov (or any of the Dmen in this draft class really) that is the route I would be pushing, however I’m just an armchair GM. (may15)

15. Mattias Ekholm was on fire to close out the regular season, racking up 26 points in his final 30 appearances. That’s insane production for a defenseman that doesn’t see top-unit power-play time. Although a lack of power-play opportunities limits his fantasy ceiling, being a good defenseman on an offensively gifted team might make him more valuable than top power-play quarterbacks on offensively challenged teams. Perhaps akin to Devon Toews from a situational standpoint? (may13)

16. As you prepare for 2024-25 fantasy drafts, you’ll look at stats from this past season to gauge a player’s recent form. Season-long point totals are easy to digest and readily available, so they’ll probably be one of the first numbers you look at. If you’re wondering how well a player performed last year, it’s natural to check how many points they put up. However, overall point totals can sometimes be misleading when player performance fluctuates over the course of a season. That’s important because skaters who end the year on a high note may be able to carry momentum into the next season. Below you’ll find are a few players who fit that bill. These names are likely to be undervalued at the draft table because their final point total doesn’t capture how well they played most recently. (may13)

17. Trevor Zegras

This past regular season was a tumultuous one for the 23-year-old Duck. Last year, offseason contract negotiations went down to the wire and extended into the fall, so Zegras didn’t really get a full-fledged training camp to prepare for the 2023-24 campaign. Barely a month into the season, a groin injury took him out of the lineup. It sounds like he played through that injury at times, which would explain his substandard performance for much of the year. Shortly after returning from that injury, he broke his ankle and was sidelined for two and a half months. Fortunately, that extended absence also gave him time to recover from the previous groin issue. He eased his way back into the lineup and posted eight points over his final eight games of the season. If I were you, I wouldn’t put too much stock into his total of 15 points in 31 games. This is a player with elite offensive creativity who scored at a 65-point pace in his previous two seasons. (may13)

18. Andrei Kuzmenko

Kuzmenko followed up an impressive 73-point rookie campaign with a sad 46-point sophomore season. Although he struggled to produce during the portion of the 2023-24 campaign he spent in Vancouver, he was actually really productive after moving to Calgary, putting up 25 points through 29 games with the Flames. The difference in output might be attributed to a difference in expectation. With Vancouver being one of the league’s top teams to start the year, there was a high standard of play required and Kuzmenko wasn’t really meeting that standard in the defensive end. In Calgary, expectations weren’t as high for the team, so Kuzmenko might have had a little more freedom to play his game. Considering the current state of Calgary’s roster, the team probably won’t be expected to contend next year, which means Kuzmenko should still have a long leash – setting the stage for another 60-plus point season. (may13)

19. Philipp Kurashev

It seems strange to have Kurashev on this list since most people will think of this past season as a positive one for him. Rightfully so, as he broke out with 54 points after flirting with the 20-point mark in each of his first three years. Still, while Kurashev’s overall output is reason for optimism, I don’t think it evokes enough of it. To help you achieve that higher level of optimism, I’ll refer you to his final quarter where he led the Blackhawks with 22 points in 22 games. Given Chicago’s rebuilding status, Kurashev is virtually guaranteed top-line, top-power play time beside Connor Bedard again next year. (may13)

20. Dylan Guenther

Guenther falls into a similar category as Kurashev: young players regarded highly based on a strong season – but maybe not highly enough considering how well they played down the stretch. 35 points in 45 games represents a solid sophomore season for Guenther, but a closer look reveals reason for even more excitement. He closed out the campaign with 23 points in his final 23 appearances, averaging nearly 17 minutes of action a night and seeing 70% of Arizona’s time with the man advantage. Guenther’s a highly skilled shooter who should get the deployment necessary to post top-tier offensive numbers. (may13)

21. Johnny Gaudreau

Based on points-per-game, last season was the least productive of Gaudreau’s career. Although he finished with an underwhelming 60 points, that total is weighed down by an incredibly poor first half. He rebounded in the second half, posting 35 points in his final 39 appearances – a 74-point pace. Early indications suggest he’s carried that momentum to the international stage as he has three points through two games for Team USA at the IIHF World Championship. His fantasy stock is quite low right now, so you’d probably be able to acquire him late in fantasy drafts, leaving lots of room for him to outperform his draft position. (may13)

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