Following a successful season with the Nashville Predators, Ryan McDonagh is heading back to Tampa Bay as the Lightning re-acquired one of their stalwarts from their two Stanley Cup runs. He had 32 points in his second year with the Predators, finishing second among the team's blue liners in ice time per game. He also led Nashville's defencemen in short-handed ice time per game. This is the full breakdown of the trade:

Let's get to it.

What Tampa Bay Gets

This is clearly a reaction to how things went defensively for Tampa Bay this season. They finished in the middle of the league by expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 but they had to use Jonas Johansson in net for six weeks while Andrei Vasilevskiy recovered from back surgery. Lightning goaltending finished the season 31^st by save percentage at 5-on-5, and that needs to be a lot better in 2024-25 if they want to make another deep playoff run with this core. McDonagh should help in this regard as he led the Nashville blue line by both expected goals against impact and goals against impact at even strength (per Evolving Hockey). One player can't turn an entire team's defensive issues around, but he can certainly push them in the right direction.

Fantasy-wise, it doesn't really change a lot for McDonagh. He goes from one team that has a future Hall of Famer eating big minutes and playing the top power play in Roman Josi to another team that has the same in Victor Hedman. McDonagh might lose a bit of ice time because of Mikhail Sergachev's presence, but it will be seconds of time per game, not minutes, unless McDonagh's play falls off considerably (he does turn 35 years old next month).

This acquisition is more about the impact it will have on other blue liners. Sergachev's last two seasons are his top-2 seasons in ice time per game. In fact, if we take out the two games he left early due to injury, Sergachev was at 23:30 per night in 2023-24. If McDonagh comes in skating 21-22 minutes a night, Sergachev probably sees a drop. It won't be a big decline, but any lost ice time for a player who thrives in providing hits and blocks is not optimal.

Assuming the team runs a top-4 defence mix of Hedman, Sergachev, McDonagh, and Erik Cernak, this will push guys like Nick Perbix, Darren Raddysh, and any prospects/call-ups to third-pair status when everyone is healthy. Raddysh was over 19 minutes a game in 2023-24 and that helped him to 33 points. He’s likely closer to 17-18 minutes now.  

What Nashville Gets

This gives the Predators some more draft picks should they want to make a splash this summer. Importantly, it also clears $6.75M per season in cap space, per CapFriendly. That will give them about $26M in cap space for this offseason and with only Alexandre Carrier being a staple that needs an extension, they could go make another splash in free agency. It isn't a deep group this year, and guys like Sam Reinhart and Jake Guentzel may just re-sign where they finished the regular season, but it would allow Nashville to make a handful of medium- to low-dollar signings to bolster scoring depth that was sorely lacking.

For now, this could push Jeremy Lauzon into the top-4 but it seems likely the team goes and gets a top-4 defenceman in free agency. It ostensibly opens the door, but that might slam shut in the next six weeks. It could also mean a spot on the roster for prospect Tanner Molendyk, but that is a question with no answer for months yet.  

Who This Helps

Jeremy Lauzon

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tanner Molendyk

Ryan Ufko

Who This Hurts

Mikhail Sergachev

Darren Raddysh

Juuse Saros