21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Dobber Sports

2024-05-26

Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

1. Rangers vs. Panthers, series tied 1-1: In Friday’s playoff pucks, Barclay Goodrow scored in 14:01 of overtime to give the Rangers a 2-1 win in Game 2, tying the Eastern Conference Final at one win each. The series heads back to Florida for Game 3 today.

Vincent Trocheck scored the Rangers’ other goal, which was in the first period. Trocheck now leads the Rangers in playoff scoring with 15 points, and he is tied with Chris Kreider for the team lead in playoff goals (7).

Carter Verhaeghe scored the Panthers’ only goal, which was on the power play late in the first period. Verhaeghe leads the Panthers with eight playoff goals and is second on the team with 14 playoff points. If you haven’t noticed, Verhaeghe has been a standout playoff performer these past few seasons.

@mirtle: Playoff goal scoring leaders, last 3 seasons:

1. Draisaitl 29
2. Hyman 26
3. Kreider 23
4. Verhaeghe 21
5. McDavid 21

Both goalies brought their A games and were thus deserving of quality starts. Igor Shesterkin stopped 26 of 27 shots he faced, while Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 28 of 30 shots. Shesterkin now has a .928 SV% in 40 career playoff games. Bob has been particularly difficult to beat lately, posting five consecutive quality starts.

With an assist on Trocheck’s goal, Adam Fox‘s 5-game pointless streak came to an end. (may25)

2. Big 6-7 Matt Rempe attracts attention whenever he’s on the ice, so it wasn’t lost on anyone that he was back in the Rangers’ lineup for Game 2. He made his presence felt, leading all players in this game with nine hits. He skated for just 10 minutes in this game and his line was dominated at 5-on-5 (20% CF), but the Rangers felt better equipped to handle the rugged style of play of the Panthers with Rempe in the lineup. The Rangers responded after being punished in the physical department in Game 1, outhitting the Panthers 51 to 42 in Game 2. Kaapo Kakko, who has just two points in 11 playoff games, was scratched for Rempe. (may25)

3. Game 3 of the Stars vs. Oilers series, tied 1-1 at time of writing, was played Saturday (yesterday). Check out Sunday's Ramblings here for a roundup.

3. Scott Arniel, who was an assistant under Rick Bowness, has been hired as the new head coach of the Jets. This might seem like an underwhelming choice considering some of the names that have been or still are available this offseason, but it’s a sign that the team doesn’t want drastic changes from its 110-point regular season. After all, Jack Adams finalist Bowness decided to retire and wasn’t fired.

Don’t expect the Arniel hiring to change the fantasy outlooks for Winnipeg players a great deal, since he is already working within their system. (may25)

4. Don Waddell has resigned as the Hurricanes general manager, with Eric Tulsky becoming the interim GM. Tulsky is well-known for his work in analytics, which the Hurricanes are already known for embracing throughout their organization. This could be a busy offseason for Carolina with some important decisions to make both from a UFA and RFA perspective, so they will need to firm up the GM role as soon as possible.

Waddell has also reportedly interviewed with Columbus about their vacant GM job. His work in building the Hurricanes into a contender should help him easily land another significant NHL role, although he seemed like a questionable hire for the Canes in the first place after some poor results with the Atlanta Thrashers. (may25)

5. With the fantasy hockey season now in the books, I’d like to share my experience with Zero G this season. If you’re not familiar with Zero G, it is the idea of deprioritizing drafting goalies on a fantasy hockey team. Nate of Apples & Ginos first coined the term, so you should read his manifesto on Zero G if you haven’t already.

I have three different teams that I used Zero G to varying levels. I’ll discuss one of those teams today, while the other two will appear in future Ramblings.(may25)

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6. New Jersey officially introduced former Toronto coach Sheldon Keefe as the Devils' new head coach on Thursday. Yesterday, I wrote about how Keefe ran Toronto's offence in 2023-24, how that contrasts to New Jersey's approach, and why other factors are probably more important than any of that. Go read that for more on this change. (may24)

7. We are getting down to the end of the offseason reviews of the 16 non-playoff squads and today’s team is a team at a crossroads, the Minnesota Wild. We have already gone over the San Jose Sharks, the Chicago Blackhawks, the Anaheim Ducks, the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Montreal Canadiens, the Arizona Coyotes (now in Utah), the Ottawa Senators, the Seattle Kraken, the Calgary Flames, the New Jersey Devils, the Buffalo Sabres, and the Philadelphia Flyers.

Let’s go over what went wrong for Minnesota, what went right, and where they go from here, with all this put through a fantasy hockey lens. 

What Went Wrong

Minnesota cannot be discussed without mentioning their cap situation. The buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter are still counting nearly $14.75M against the cap and will do so again next season. That eats up over 17% of the team’s cap space and in a league where teams are trying to get $100M rosters into the playoffs, this handcuffs the franchise. This isn’t a sport like baseball where a bunch of cheap, young pitchers can get an MLB team to the postseason; teams rarely have the chance to accumulate so much high-end young talent that it carries them to a playoff appearance. (may24)

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8. Los Angeles removed the interim tag from head coach Jim Hiller and he’ll be the full-time coach heading into the 2024-25 season. After taking over at the All-Star break, the team went 21-12-1 to secure their playoff spot. They were bounced in the first round by Edmonton, but they were a legitimately great defensive team down the stretch. How much he’ll help their top producers be fantasy stars very much remains to be seen. (may23)

9. A couple of quick thoughts for the leagues where you get to replace eliminated players. In leagues where you cannot double-up on replacement players, then Edmonton is the last team I would like to select players from, because their scoring is so top-heavy right now that even selecting a few depth players would mean that if they win the cup, those players might get you the same amount of points as a Dallas third-liner. (may22)

10. Aside from that, at this point it should be fully game-theory based on who you are trying to load up on to catch up to the leaders. If they have Dallas and New York, you aren’t going to catch them by adding more Dallas and New York players. Ideally you can lean into Edmonton and Florida, but even one team different would do the trick in the right scenario. Things like this also depend on how many teams you are trying to pass, which increases how different from the consensus that you need to be.

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My picks for the series are New York in six and Dallas in five, but at this point any of the four teams have a very real shot at winning. (may22)

11. Rick Roos’ article this week covers the top free agents this year, and reviews some thoughts on why each could end up being the worst signing of the season. Check out the article, and see if you feel like my salary projections jive with it as well. (may22)

12. Rick is also looking for a couple more mailbag questions, and you know that no one does a deeper dive for your queries than Rick does. Get those offseason conundrums in early before you get stuck at the back of the mailbag line.

To submit a question you can either private message "rizzeedizzee" via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line.

13. My general take on the Craig Berube move in Toronto is that he isn’t going to make the team better in the regular season, and that is when the majority of fantasy leagues take place. Toronto was one of the top offensive teams, but was bottom half on defence. They’re not improving their goals-for numbers regardless, but it’s even less likely with Berube. The team was in the bottom half for goals against, which should improve, but that will also depend on what roster moves are made in net and on the blueline, which will likely have more impact than the coaching change. All in all, I think I will be shying away from Toronto players next year, as the upside won’t be far off from their projected value going into drafts. (may22)

14. Maxim Tsyplakov was courted by over a dozen teams as a free agent looking to make the jump from the KHL. The winger will be 26 by the time the NHL season starts in the fall, and was signed to a one-year ELC by the Islanders. He will be competing from a roster spot coming off of a 31-goal season in the KHL, a big production jump from his previous years. It does show that he has a decent scoring touch though, and players adjust differently to the North American game. He likely won’t be a 30-goal scorer in the NHL, but a 20+ goal season in the Islanders’ middle-six is very possible. (may22)

15. Ryan McDonagh was traded back to the Tampa Bay Lightning along with a 4th round pick in 2024 yesterday in exchange for 2nd and 7th round picks. This doesn’t have a huge amount of fantasy value with McDonagh himself just being a 30-point defenceman now, though it does have a trickle-down effect where Nashville’s younger defencemen such as Dante Fabbro and Spencer Stastney may have a little more room to grow. It also sounds like it was McDonagh himself that initiated the trade with a request to be moved during his exit meeting. (may22)

16. For the Predators end of the McDonagh trade, the cap space is huge, giving them a ton of flexibility to go big-game shopping in the offseason, perhaps for someone like Mitch Marner or Martin Necas. Barry Tortz has stated that he wants the team to bring in high-upside talents, so it’s possible that the Predators turn into more of an offensive team in future years than what they have previously. That having been said, using it immediately for a cap dump rather than a big acquisition seems more likely,

The cap space isn’t quite as much as it could have been as the Predators do still have more than $6 million next year tied up in the Matt Duchene buyout. Regardless though it provides more flexibility this year, and especially in 2025-2026. Moving out Duchene and Ryan Johansen shows Nashville won’t just take anyone in a cap dump, but the cap space is going to get weaponized in one way or another.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay inches closer to having zero draft picks and just not having to bother paying a scouting department. (may22)

17. Over at the World Championships, the games don’t have the same high stakes as the NHL playoffs or the Olympics, but they are still entertaining, intense games from which we can try to draw a conclusion or two.

One main note from Canada: Connor Bedard is so good. Adding some quality players around him makes him exponentially more dangerous. He could pace for 70+ again next season, or jump into the 90- to 100-point range if at least one top-tier winger is added. (may22)

18. Frank Seravalli reported that Brock Boeser‘s blood clot issue is going to make him miss the rest of the playoffs regardless of the result of Game 7. That is just a brutal circumstance for the winger who had a career season and was such a big part of the team’s success. It appears he’ll be just fine long-term, which is the most important thing, so hopefully he’s back and good to go for training camp. (may21)

19. It’s always nice to be able to get the cap league skater and goalie rankings prepped and into the hopper early, so there’s no rushing about at the last minute to meet deadlines. They were released this weekend. Top 200 skaters here, and Top 64 goalies here.

20. Jumping in to a date out of my usual routine means I get to break out the fun topics that I have been sitting on like a mock draft. Except the fun part is, I’m going to be doing it for my dynasty league, and not based on what NHL teams are expected to do. I’ve been trying to map this out for a little while, because in my salary cap dynasty league my team needed a bit of a reset, and I (Thornhill) ended up with picks eight, 10, 17, 20, 22, 23, and 24 in our first round (it’s a 24-team league). (may20)

21. For a bit more context, we roster 25 players on our pro squad under a $100M cap, plus a minors system with 15 slots. The setup is a weekly H2H matchup with the most points taking a singular win – goals and assists are each worth one point with other stats collecting fractal amounts.

Let’s dive in:

[Format is: Pick #) League Team Name – Player]

1) James Bay – Macklin Celebrini (F)

Our first owner here isn’t going to overthink this one, and adds Celebrini to a youth collection that included Logan Cooley, Marco Rossi, Brad Lambert, Clayton Keller, Thomas Harley, and Adam Fantilli. Being bad for a while will fill up your cupboards like that, but the problem is then turning the corner into contention while paying all the players. Celebrini probably worsens the cap crunch four years from now, but in the meantime it’s a slam dunk pick. (may20)

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Have a good week, folks!

Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix visit the gang in the forum here.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12 BUF vs CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12 CBJ vs BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JJ PETERKA BUF
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
MIRO HEISKANEN DAL
BRYAN RUST PIT
LUKE HUGHES N.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JUUSE SAROS NSH
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
DAVID RITTICH L.A

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency ARI Players
25.8 NICK SCHMALTZ ALEXANDER KERFOOT CLAYTON KELLER
17.5 DYLAN GUENTHER LAWSON CROUSE LOGAN COOLEY
17.2 AKU RATY JACK MCBAIN MATIAS MACCELLI

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