Ramblings: Panthers Take Game Four; Memorial Cup Notes & Other Prospect Thoughts (May 29)

Alexander MacLean

2024-05-29

The Florida Panthers took game four after scoring a power play goal just a minute into overtime. Sam Reinhart scored 27 of them in the regular season, so it should be no surprise that he was the focal point of Florida’s power play here as well.

Blake Wheeler made his monumental comeback from a big knee injury in February, and after playing only nine minutes in regulation, he was caught and took the early penalty in overtime. If this is one of the last plays in his NHL career, that would be a rough way to go.

Here's the list of Florida goal scorers this series:

Sam Bennett x2, Carter Verhaeghe x3, Sam Reinhart x3, Aleksander Barkov, Gustav Forsling, Matthew Tkachuk. It's all the big guns. The Panthers have been shuffling their bottom-six forwards, and if they don't end up going all the way this time, then even with losing one of Sam Reinhart or Brandon Montour is not the end. Regardless of what happens the next few weeks, Florida may be my pick to win next year's Cup.

Looking at New York's side, here are their goal scorers:

Vincent Trocheck x2, Alexis Lafreniere x3, Barclay Goodrow x3, Alex Wennberg

On New York's side, their power play looks dangerous, Lafreniere is growing into his full potential, and they're getting some surprising bottom-six forward contributions from Goodrow. The Rangers are built similarly to the Panthers, so they should also be considered one of the favourites in the East over the next few years. They seem to have more questions with their existing roster though, with the main core being in their early 30s compared to the Panthers and their group being in their mid- to late-twenties. Their time is running shorter, and it's looking more and more like Kaapo Kakko's clock is running out, likely to be moved for an older and more reliable player.

This series could go to either of these two deserving teams, and they're going to be dealing with very similar issues in the offseason regardless of the results.

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Over in the West, Adam Henrique made his return to the lineup on Monday after missing eight of the last nine games. He scored an equalizer goal late in the second period, but it wasn't enough to fend off the Stars.

Since coming over from Anaheim, his fantasy production dropped off as his ice time was slashed and his power play usage dried up. Despite that, he has been an excellent add for the Oilers, adding some responsibility and versatility to the middle-six, and they would do well to re-sign him if they can.

In other Oilers news, Stuart Skinner has already been tabbed the starter for game four. They're running with him until their backs are against the wall. If they lose game four then I would imagine Calvin Pickard gets game five. 

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We're in the part of the year where the coaching carousel is starting to slow down. Dan Bylsma in Seattle will be one of the last dominoes to fall this summer. Cliffy had his take here.

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If you love watching the World Juniors every year because it's fun hockey, small sample sizes, and exciting young players that play with skill but also make mistakes, then this is a PSA to make sure that you are also watching the Memorial Cup games that are going on for the next week.

After Saginaw handed London their only two losses of their entire playoff run during the semi-finals of the OHL playoffs, they look to be on a collision course to get their revenge in the Memorial Cup finals. Drummondville is a good and well-rounded team, while Moose Jaw has been excellent this season as well, being led by some high-level talent at the top of the roster including Matt Savoie, Brayden Yager, Denton Mateychuk, and Jagger Firkus. However, both those teams have looked a step behind London and Saginaw. Moose Jaw won last night to finish third in the round robin, getting nother crck at the loser of tonight's game in the semi-finals.

London and Saginaw are led up front by duos of Easton Cowan & Denver Barkey and Owen Beck & Michael Misa, but the prime battle may be the two draft-eligible defencemen going head-to-head. Sam Dickinson and Zayne Parekh are both extremely entertaining to watch in their own ways. Dickinson with his shot, vision, and the combo of size and poise in his own zone, while Parekh's game is best described as having an excellent shot that he loves to get off from anywhere and everywhere, as well as a fluidity to his game that allows him to get to wherever he wants to shoot from. Their round-robin game goes tonight, and both teams head into the match undefeated (2-0). Winner gets a bye to the finals, while the loses plays Moose Jaw in the semis.

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I know I have focused a lot on prospects that are eligible for the upcoming 2024 draft, but for most fantasy leagues those players aren't as relevant. However, these same Memorial Cup teams give us a great spot to start looking at a few more developed prospects that could make a fantasy impact in the NHL in the fall as well. 

Both Yager (PIT) and Firkus (SEA) have made positive developmental strides this year, and neither has all that much blocking their way to an NHL roster spot. Pittsburgh needs to infuse some young talent, so Yager could see a few games to test if he's ready. If not, it's likely back to the WHL for one more year. Meanwhile, Seattle could really use Firkus as a power play specialist after he put up two points per game in the WHL. Despite Yager only putting up about 1.5 points per game this year, his PNHLe grades out a little higher than Firkus' because he's a year younger.

Sticking with Moose Jaw, Denton Mateychuk (CLB) and Matt Savoie (BUF) are the other two big names there, but both have a lot more in the way on their teams' depth charts. I would expect their career trajectories to out-perform Firkus and Yager, but there's less upside in the next two years or so, barring a trade.

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The Montreal Canadiens' lack of centre depth nearly led to Owen Beck being called up for a quick stint last season, and he got his first taste of NHL action with one game back in 2022-23. He could get more than the nine-game stint this upcoming year, as he is smart enough to handle a bottom-six centre role, and the Habs don't have a ton of forward depth past the top-six. He's never going to be an elite scorer though, so despite the Montreal fanfare, temper expectations there.

The better name to chase on the Habs roster is Lane Hutson, who I already have up in the top-100 for the cap league skater rankings. He has a sky-high upside, and should be a full-time player this season with the team. Mike Matheson has been good as the top power play man, but if Hutson is on the team full time then he should take a big chunk of that, which means putting up a lot of points right away in the NHL.

Speaking of tempering expectations, it seems like a lot of people are having trouble doing that with Easton Cowan, and I'm having a tough time blaming them. His rise has been amazing to watch, and he has been setting different records all year for a London Knights team that has a very talented history. It seems like he has a 50/50 shot at this point to make the Leafs next year past a nine-game stint. If he does play with the team, then he replaces something similar to max Domi's role as a top-nine winger. If not, he heads back to Junior and continues to rise in the prospect rankings. His perceived value seems to be moving ahead of where his floor and ceiling warrant it being.

One other name to put (back) on your radar is Will Smith, who yesterday officially signed with the Sharks for the upcoming season, leaving college after just one season. Cliffy already mentioned the breaking news on the impending signing yesterday, but I just wanted to add my two cents.

Smith is similarly skilled and as talented as Logan Cooley, landing in a similar situation with a roster that has limited support pieces, and needs a lot of work towards being a playoff contender. That makes it a little harder to insulate these young players, but the bonus for Smith is that he won't necessarily have to start at centre if he isn't ready there. With Logan Couture, Mikael Granlund, Thomas Bordeleau (already putting up solid FOW numbers), and Nico Sturm already around, Smith could begin on the wing, put up some better numbers, gaining the confidence to then make a shift to the middle when he is more developed.

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On that note, I'll also leave you with this if you're looking for any other kind of prospect information:

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One other link I want to share is to my new substack where I'll be uploading a lot of my research and thoughts from my dive into evaluating public scouting.

Sebastian High more recently, and the Dobber Prospects team over the years both have some accolades in the top-five lists that I'll be publishing over there evaluating different scouting services. Great to see from the DP team!

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Quick congrats to the Czechs for winning Gold at the World Championships, and Switzerland on the Silver. It's fun to see some of the non-favourites win these, especially when you end up with pictures like this:

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A fun piece of NHL trivia to end off with: Radek Dvorak is the only player in NHL history to have played for all four of the remaining teams in this year's playoffs. He was drafted by Florida in 1995, played seven full seasons and two split seasons with them, spent his first three years outside of Florida with the Rangers, and then moved on to Edmonton for 2.5 seasons. He only spent one year in Dallas near the end of his career as he was winding down in the role of a depth forward. Wonder who he's cheering for…

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See you next Wednesday, and if you want to keep up with it you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Jun 18 - 20:06 FLA vs EDM

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
MARTIN NECAS CAR
PATRIK LAINE CBJ
EVANDER KANE EDM
JOHNNY GAUDREAU CBJ
CONNOR MCDAVID EDM

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LINUS ULLMARK BOS
SEBASTIAN COSSA DET
SERGEI BOBROVSKY FLA
IGOR SHESTERKIN NYR
DAMIAN CLARA ANA

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency SEA Players
23.3 JORDAN EBERLE ANDRE BURAKOVSKY MATTY BENIERS
19.4 EELI TOLVANEN JADEN SCHWARTZ JARED MCCANN
17.7 TYE KARTYE YANNI GOURDE OLIVER BJORKSTRAND

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