Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

This is not only the last Goldipucks before a Stanley Cup winner will be crowned, but also prior to the opening of free agency. And although UFA/RFA comings and goings will indeed have ripple effects on the value of players, there are still some whose roles are set enough in stone as to be ripe for analysis, yet for which it nevertheless night be difficult to determine if their 2023-24 was too hot, too cold, or "just right." With that in mind, a trio of defensemen are being assessed this month: MacKenzie Weegar, Zach Werenski, and Filip Hronek. Are you still dialed enough into this past season to assign correct ratings to all three? There's only one way to find out, and that's to read on.

MacKenzie Weegar (82 GP, 20 G, 32 A, 208 SOG, 22:56 TOI, 15 PPPts, 1:55 PP, 38.7% PP%)

Among the biggest draft bargains in the NHL today, Weegar was selected 206th overall in 2013. Not surprisingly, he didn't make it to the NHL right away, instead playing another year of junior and then three campaigns in the AHL before a brief cameo in the NHL in 2016-17. Yet 2017-18 saw him stick with the Panthers despite a mere eight points in 60 games. Things didn't get much better from there though, as by the end of his third season he'd yet to average even a point per every other game. Then he tallied 36 points in 55 games in 2020-21, opening the eyes of poolies in the process. His scoring rate then dropped the following season, and fell even further his first campaign in Calgary, where he'd landed as part of the huge Jonathan Huberdeau for Matthew Tkachuk trade. But lo and behold he rebounded in 2023-24 with 52 points. Can he stay at that level, or might he at risk of faltering again? Neither, as Weegar is poised to do considerably better in 2024-25 and onward.

One key area where Weegar's season-long data is somewhat deceiving pertains to the power play. On the surface, his 15 PPPts is quite decent, ranking him tied for 26th in PPPts among d-men despite taking the ice for the 37th most PP minutes. Things are better than they would see, since at the end of the campaign Weegar had six of his 15 PPPts in just his last 11 games, and ten of those 11 saw him take the ice for more than 50% of his team's PP minutes, with that percentage being above 62.5% in all but three of those ten contests. What's more – Rasmus Andersson, the man who had run PP1 for the Flames over the last three seasons, had not done a superb job to say the least, receiving the 12th most cumulative PP minutes among all NHL rearguards from 2020-21 through 2022-23, but tallying only the 20th most PPPts. In 2023-24, Anderson production was even worse, as he took the ice for the 30th most PP Minutes among d-men but tallied only the 44th most PPPts. Objectively it's safe to say that Weegar had done more with less, and once he was given a chance to shine, he did just that, plus Andersson had not thrived to an extent where the Flames would reflexively turn back to him next season. Rather, I'd look for Weegar to have a permanent home on Calgary's PP1, and, with that, a chance to post 25+ PPPts with more minutes and playing with the best of his team's forwards.

It's also notable that Weegar tied his career best for SOG per game with 2.5, and had a very impressive 9.6% SH%. Yes, that is well above his prior rate; but it was the same at ES as on the PP, plus his goal output was very steady, with between four and six each quarter of the season. In other words, this wasn't just a case of a player catching fire for a stretch of time such that it's difficult to envision it recurring. Instead, Weegar was a Steady Eddie, and, with that, someone who might just be cut from a cloth where he has a high SH%.

Weegar got better as the season unfolded, with point per game scoring in his final 12 contests. Also, he had 11 multi-point games, and looking at other d-men with more than his 52 points but fewer than 60, none had more than 12 multi-point games. His consistency was in line with his scoring rate, or, if anything, with someone expected to score more, as only one d-man (Thomas Harley) had fewer points despite more multi-point games.

There's also the reality that the Flames' offense did not help Weegar, as they finished 13th worst in goals per game. And of the 15 defensemen who had more points in 2023-24 than Weegar, just four did so despite playing for a team which scored at a lower goals per game rate, with only one of the four (Mike Matheson) outscoring Weegar by more than five total points. Also, subtract Calgary's first ten games in which they had just 19 total goals, and that lands them at 3.25 goals per game, which would've put them virtually at the middle of the pack instead. So it's safe to say that Calgary will likely fare better in terms of scoring next season, with Weegar likely to be a beneficiary.

What is also good to see is even as Weegar's OZ% dropped each of the past two seasons, his overall IPP rose. That indicates he's not only finding more ways to factor into scoring, but also to do so despite circumstances less amenable to points. While it is possible his OZ% stays the same or even drops, chances are it too will rise both as the Flames improve and Weegar is looked upon for an entire season as a go to source of offense from the blue line.

Digging a bit further Weegar's secondary assist rate was right in line with prior seasons. And although his 5×5 team SH% was only 8.4%, which is not great, his PDO was 986, and together those cancel out each other. In short, Weegar's metrics suggest not only didn't he benefit from unsustainable good luck, but he does indeed have realistic room to see gains based on improvements in some or all of those metrics.

Make no mistake – I don't see Weegar becoming a truly top tier offensive defenseman. But the picture I'm seeing painted is that of someone who should be a safe bet for 60+ points, with a better chance at 65+ than under 55. After all, he thrived when handed the keys to the PP1 kingdom, and the team around him should, if anything, fare better in 2024-25. As such, Weegar's 2023-24 was TOO COLD, and he gets a rating of 1.75.

Zach Werenski (70 GP, 11 G, 46 A, 202 SOG, 24:27 TOI, 12 PPPts, 2:44 PP, 62.0% PP%)

An eighth overall selection in 2015, Werenski was in the NHL to stay as a teen, and hit the ground running, with a 49-point rookie scoring pace. He took a few baby steps back the next two seasons, but then posted 53 and 47-point scoring rates. In 2021-22 he had his best season yet, scoring at a 58-point pace. Hopes of him building upon that were dashed when he was forced to miss nearly the entire 2022-23 season. But in 2023-24 he climbed to new heights, scoring at a 67-point pace. Have we seen the best we'll see from Weresnki? Most likely yes, at least until/unless Columbus markedly improves as a team.

Longtime readers of my column will be familiar with the stat I point to when expressing optimism about Werenski's career path, and it has to do with his early career goal scoring. By having four seasons of 11+ goals occurring in his first four NHL seasons and by age 22, he put himself into very limited and very elite company, as the only other d-men in NHL history to meet all those criteria were Bobby Orr, Ray Bourque, Larry Murphy, and Phil Housley. Orr had multiple 100+ point seasons, while Bourque had several above 90, and each of Housley and Murphy logged multiple point per game campaigns. I'm not saying that Werenski will ascend to those heights; however, I'd rather be in the company of this caliber of rearguards than not.

Looking at Werenski's numbers, they're a bit head scratching at first, as his PPTOI was down by almost 30 seconds versus 2021-22, and his percentage of PP minutes was 62.0%, versus 72.4% in 2021-22. His SOG per game was lower too, at 2.9, from 3.2. But as those numbers were trending in the wrong direction, others arguably as important if not more so, were rising. First, his overall IPP went from 45.9% to 50.0%, which is a nice increase but not so large as to be indicative of unsustainable luck. Also, when Werenski was on the ice, his team's 5×5 shooting percentage was 11.2%. Yes, that is high for him; but in the time before he got hurt last season it was already climbing into double digits.

Let's also not forget that when last season started, Werenski was right at the 400 game mark that is often associated with when d-men with offensive potential take things to another level, as happened in recent seasons with Josh Morrissey and Brandon Montour. So it's not a case of Werenski all of a sudden getting better. Instead, it's his years of experience paying off, lending legitimacy to his scoring total.

It's not all good news though, as Werenski's 58.7% secondary assist percentage was easily a career high. But it's not so off the charts as to suggest his point total will crater. Also, he saw his scoring rate balloon even though his OZ% was a career low. These are not great to see; but we look at the entire picture at Goldipucks, and there are enough metrics which likely would offset any points lost due to these factors.

Most notably. there's the PP. Werenski's PP IPP was a superb 66.7%, meaning that despite the fact he had only 12 PPPts, that was out of a total of just 18 scored while he was on the ice. And in looking at defensemen who both had higher PP IPPs and played more minutes on the man advantage than Werenski, there are a total of just five, with their PPPt totals being 33, 39, 29, 28 and 38. Yeah, it's safe to say that Werenski is likely to be able to get more PPPts in the normal course once his team improves on the man advantage overall. Also, even if that means his teammates eat into his IPP, it still should be a decent net gain in PPPts for Werenski versus what's happening now.

Also, Werenski's games in which he had 2+ points accounted for 17.1% of his total contests. To put that in perspective, every one of the nine d-men who had 60+ points had at least a 20% rate of multipoint games, with all but two above 25%. Yes, that is to be expected since if you are scoring a lot of points you will have more multipoint games than if you're not. But Werenski also only had 39 games with at least a point, which of those with more points they all had 42+ games, with most over 50. To some degree this is because Werenski missed 12 games; but it also brings to light that he played for a poor offensive team. Although that might be an ongoing issue, Columbus did just hire one of the most successful GMs in recent times, so the team might be better sooner than expected.

Werenski has come into his own as a scoring defenseman, in part due to necessity given the weak team around him, but also in line with his 400-game breakout. While not all of his metrics suggest sustainable scoring, others indicate he has room to do even better. In all, it is likely a wash, meaning Werenski's 2023-24 was JUST RIGHT, and he gets a rating of 5.0, as I think he can be a consistent ~65 point d-man, with a chance to rise to 70+ if the team around him improves and he stays as integral to the offense as he's been. In fact, if I had to pick someone who could turn out to be Roman Josi 2.0, it's Werenski.

Filip Hronek (81 GP, 5 G, 43 A, 148 SOG, 23:27 TOI, 11 PPPts, 1:43 PP, 33.1% PP%)

Grabbed near the end of round two by the Wings in 20215, Hronek was in the NHL the next season and at age 22 averaged nearly 24 minutes a game for the Wings, who needed all the help they could get on their blueline. Hronek continued to be a minute eater, yet his points stayed stuck in neutral, averaging a 38-41 point scoring pace in each of his first four seasons. But in 2022-23, he seemed to find another gear, upping his rate to 50, which he nearly matched in 2024-25. Where does he go from here? Unfortunately, he's a better bet to see his scoring decline than even stay stable, let alone rise further.

Yes, Hronek's scoring rate has inched upward. But why? It's not his SOG, as despite higher scoring rates his SOG rate, like with every other season in his career, fell squarely within the 1.6-2.0 per game range. And after last season tallying one PPPt per every four games for the first time in his career, he was down at 11 in 81 contests for 2023-24. Previously, when he had more PP time, he was no better.

Hopes of Hronek's PP scoring rising are unrealistic, as Quinn Hughes gets all the PP time he can handle, leaving Hronek with scraps. It's also not Hronek's ice times, as what he averaged in 2022-23 and 2023-24 were squarely in line with what he received in 2019-20 and 2020-21 in the midst of his stretch of 38-41 point scoring pace seasons.

Looking more closely at 2022-23, his SH% was a good bit higher than his norm. Also, he played just 64 games. It is true that he was at or near that total previously; however, the key for Hronek, is he has settled into a pattern these past two seasons of starting red hot before cooling considerably. In 2022-23, it was 18 points in his first 21 games, while in 2023-24 it was an even more impressive 23 points in 23 games. In 2023-24, when he played 48 more games, he had more time to renormalize, and in fact got pronouncedly worse, going from 13 points in 21 games in Q2, to nine in 19 in Q3, to a mere three in 18 in Q4. So the reason why he had a slightly better scoring rate in 2022-23 versus 2023-24 seemingly is he has fewer games to renormalize, as in 2022-23 he also saw declines in production from Q1 to Q2, Q2 to Q3, and Q3 to Q4, but played just four total games in Q4.

What's of greater concern for 2023-24 is he faltered while playing on such a powerhouse offensive team like Vancouver. What happened is his PP time declined, and he became the defensive presence for his pairing with Hughes. While that has worked for a player like Devon Toews, who skates almost entirely with Cale Makar at ES, Hronek seemingly is not cut from that same cloth, as rather than having a "rub off" scoring effect due to Makar like Toews does, Hronek is focused on doing all he can to ensure Hughes can be fully unleased. Let's also not forget that Toews has seen his scoring rate decline since his first by far most productive season while paired with Makar.

What of the fact that Hronek is right at his breakout threshold of 400 games? That is a fair point; however, it matters more for players who are put into an offensive role, as were Josh Morrissey and Brandon Montour when they had huge breakouts right around the 400 games player mark. For a player like Hronek though, it's unlikely to move the needle.

Also of concern is that the Canucks shot at an 11.9% rate at 5×5 while Hronek was on the ice. That is a terrific number; however, it seemingly happened in spite of him as opposed to because of him. Or to perhaps put it more kindly, his defensive mindset allowed the players on the ice, most notably Quinn Hughes, to take more offensive chances. This is supported by the fact that Hronek's overall IPP dropped for the third straight season, to 41.4%. So even though his team's SH% was through the roof and Hronek's OZ% was 58.7%, after never once even being above 50%, he failed to contribute much to the offense.

Making matters worse, his secondary assist rate was 67.4%, meaning more than two-thirds of his assists were secondary. To put that in perspective, there were 205 d-men who played 40+ games in 2023-24, and Hronek's secondary assist rate not only was 29th highest, but of the 28 whose were above his, all had at least ten fewer assists. In fact, the next highest secondary assist percentage for anyone with more secondary assists was 60.9%. Hughes likely lucked into quite a few points in 2023-24.

It is easy to see Hronek and envision big things, whether due to his team, the strong start he had to 2023-24, or comparisons to Devon Toews. But not only does Hronek have a very demonstrated pattern of finishing weak if he starts strong, but his success in 2023-24 was the by-product of a very unsustainably high secondary assist rate, and his IPP is falling due to his role and despite his high OZ% and his team having a super high SH% at ES which is unlikely to rise even further. All this adds up to Hronek's 2023-24 being TOO HOT, with a rating of 8.0. I think Hronek, despite the move to Vancouver, is what he always has been, which is roughly a point per every other game player., if even that.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag has room for plenty more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.