Ian Gooding should have our team's Expert Picks out at some point today.

My pick is Edmonton in seven. I think there will be a few games where each team takes over, with the Oil's stars overwhelming Sergei Bobrovsky more often than not in the series.

Home ice "advantage" and the Oilers' historic penalty kill of late have me leaning that way. The equivalent and long layoff will be interesting as well, to see who can get up to speed and make their own momentum first.

As I discussed a few weeks ago, Connor McDavid was the shoe-in for first overall pick in playoff pools, so hopefully you didn't overthink things and look elsewhere. Unfortunately though, it looks like my McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Henrique, and Mattias Ekholm crew from the Oilers won't be enough to win me my playoff draft pool.

*

One other note on the Stanley Cup Final, is that I think this has to be the end of the notion that teams with high-pair star players can't win. There does also have to be a certain level of depth, but regardless of whether Edmonton or Florida win the cup, we will be at least doubling the list of players with eight-figure cap hits to win the Cup (Jack Eichel being the only one to date).

McDavid could become the top-paid player to ever win the Cup if the Oilers win, but if the Panthers take the series then we get both Aleksander Barkov and Sergei Bobrovsky joining the list.

Additionally, both teams have three players making at least $8.5 million, and are paying a backup goalie at least $4.5 million. Not exactly the most efficient or spread-out use of cap between the two teams, but they are making it work with top-end star power, and excellent depth production.

With the cap set to rise over $87 million this next season, and possibly to $92 million the year after, these bigger deals are going to be more and more prevalent. The interesting thing is that the base salary isn't rising nearly as fast, meaning that those paid closer to the league minimum make a bigger difference on a team's cap sheet in making room for the big guns. Something to think about and possibly translate to your cap leagues.

*

It was interesting to see from Dobber (who typically has more of a lean towards prospects closer to NHL production) that his top prospects list from had a bit more of a lean towards the 2024 crop than other DobberProspects Reps. I'm excited for this year's draft because of the talent available, but also because it's the first one I'm covering with my scouting and draft research.

From yesterday:

Standardized Scout Ranking in the Top-10 – Last Three Years (2018-2020)

Sebastian High
Blue Bullet Brad 
Chris Peters 
Bob McKenzie 
DobberProspects https://t.co/YPEVFwDqLi

— Alex MacLean (@alexdmaclean) June 4, 2024

On top of that, find there's no better resource for starting the offseason in my dynasty league than sitting with the guide, reading up on all of my prospects at once, and sorting through which make sense to keep and move. Then the work starts on who to target.

The guide is worth it just on reading and interest alone, but with how much value it provides for fantasy leagues, it's a must. You can purchase it here.

*

To finish off the Memorial Cup thoughts from the last week, Owen Beck won the MVP award after an excellent tournament that culminated in three points in the final championship game, which Saginaw won. He's done in juniors now, and looked every bit the part of the third line centre for the Habs next season. With Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach around on the wings as well, along with Evans to take some of the heavier matchups, the opportunity is there. It's just up to Beck to have a great camp and show he belongs.

Sam Dickinson and his performance across the season but especially in the Memorial Cup tournament is going to have some GM early on snap him up. There's no way the 200 hockey men let him drop outside the top-10, and if Montreal wasn't already stacked on defence, then I would say it's unlikely he slips past the top-five.

I also said something very similar recently about Anton Silayev, which means that there will certainly be a few top forwards that drop. Adam Jiricek, Stian Stolberg, and probably one or two other defencemen as well are likely all gone by pick #20.

Some of those teams in the late teens and early 20s who would probably select the top forward available anyways like the Capitals or Islanders must be licking their chops. The added benefit for those players that end up slipping a bit, is there is likely a lot less competition in front of them.

*

Ilya Sorkin was recently put on the block in one of my cap leagues, and my initial thought about acquiring him was "probably too expensive, and his cap hit is doubling going into next season". The thing is though, Connor Hellebuyck's cap hit is rising to about the same around as Sorokin's, and I would rather own Sorokin next year than Hellebuyck, so why don't I want to make a pitch?

Well, first off, Sorokin is on a non-playoff team, with a doubling cap hit, and the goalie he was splitting starts with in the playoffs is also returning and has some prior history with the coach. On top of that, his save percentage dropped from .924 over the last two years to .909 this past season. It was also a pretty even spread by quarter too, so it's not like it was just one bad stretch that dragged him down, it was a bad season.

Strangely though, his Really Bad Start Percentage (RBS%) dropped, meaning this downtick in his stats was just an overall dip to a lesser, but more consistent level. Perhaps there's some maturity to it, and maybe the lack of fit with Head Coach Lane Lambert had Sorokin in a spot where he couldn't recover for the rest of the season, but something was up this past year. The team in front of Sorokin hasn't changed much, so it’s tough to see what the issue might be from a personnel standpoint.

Regardless, Sorokin's upside dictates that he should be at least someone to check in on this offseason. Contrasted with Hellebuyck who is coming off of another Vezina caliber season, is also having his new contract kick in, and is due for some regression, I see myself owning more Sorokin shares than Hellebuyck next year.

*

Seravalli: I wouldn't be shocked to see Necas dealt before Game 1 on Saturday.

(DFO pod)

— Taj (@taj1944) June 3, 2024

It sounds like Martin Necas could be on the move sooner rather than later, so if you're planning on jumping on him in a dynasty league before the trade possibly brings a bump in his perceived value.

*

Without any NHL games tonight (and all the way until Saturday), I ended up tuning into the AHL conference finals which had both series playing game three last night. Hershey and Coachella Valley each had 2-0 leads in their respective best of seven series heading into game three.

Cleveland did get reinforcements in the form of Denton Mateychuk, but it wasn't nearly enough as Ivan Miroschnichenko took over with a goal and two assists in the 6-2 victory for Hershey.

It’s looking more and more like they will play the Coachella Valley Firebirds in the final after they beat Milwaukee 5-2 yesterday. Yaroslav Askarov was injured earlier in the playoffs, and while Troy Grosenick has played well in his stead, it wasn't enough.

Chris Driedger is the goalie for the Firebirds, and has been fantastic in the AHL this year. He's a free agent this summer and deserves another NHL shot.

*

Dallas Stars forward Joe Pavelski says "this is it for me." Says it's not official official, but said it was known for a long time that this was his last go. "Plan is not to play next season."

— Taylor Baird (@taylordbaird) June 4, 2024

From the quote above, it certainly sounds as though Joe Pavelski is retiring. Stick taps to him as a great player and what we hear to have been a great teammate as well. He was drafted in the seventh round all the way back in 2003, then put up a no-doubter Hall-of-Fame career. It's too bad he never won a cup as a player, but I hope he joins a management office and wins one eventually.

His hole on the top line in the regular season is likely either taken by Logan Stankoven or Tyler Seguin, which would be a boon to either's fantasy value.

Blake Wheeler has also answered "I don't know" to whether he would be back next season. I would give the better odds to him retiring rather than returning for one more season.

*

See you next Wednesday, and if you want to keep up with it you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.