While we wait for the conclusion of the Cup Finals, we return to our MVP series. Today is the final installment of our skater portion. We have concluded the forwards and are moving on to defensemen.

As a reminder here is some context for the data below this series.

For the purposes of this article, we are going to use standard Yahoo point scoring to calculate the total fantasy points for each player. This year the stats include goals, assists, power-play points, shots, blocks and (unfortunately) plus/minus. Obviously, this means there might be some general deviations to your league, based on your settings, but it is at least a good starting point. In order to grab all of this data I am exporting the Multi-Category and Big Board Reports for the full season, and doing a bit of rearranging so I can have only the pertinent fields.

The table below contains the top five total fantasy producers on defense for the 2023-24 season. We start with basic player information on the left (name, position, team) then get into some production stats (total points, and then total fantasy points), and finally a couple of contextual stats (percent of total power play, average time on ice, and average draft position).

Name	Pos	Team	GP	PTS	Fantasy Points	%PP	TOI	Average ADP
QUINN HUGHES	D	VAN	82	92	356.6	75.9	24:41	62.2
CALE MAKAR	D	COL	77	90	347.4	74.3	24:46	14.1
ROMAN JOSI	D	NSH	82	85	345.2	72.8	24:38	35.5
EVAN BOUCHARD	D	EDM	81	82	339	77.5	23:00	61
VICTOR HEDMAN	D	T.B	78	76	281.2	73.8	24:49	74.3

Based on how the season went, we really shouldn't be surprised by these names. Cale Makar and Roman Josi had preseason expectations as well so being on a top list isn't really that surprising. We will actually get to Evan Bouchard in a bit, so let's start with Quinn Hughes and Victor Hedman.

Hughes has been steadily increasing his point production for several years, so on the one hand probably shouldn't really be a surprise that he exceeded expectations in 2023-24. On the other he put up a 92-point season and had 64 points over his first 50 games (105-point pace).

This all came with career highs in points, power-play points, assists, goals, and shots. Unfortunately, it did not come with career high time on ice, or power-play time, but with career high personal and team shooting percentages. He definitely changed aspects of his game because even with a minute less ice time he put up the highest shot rates of his career (2.4). But that translated into 17 goals for a shooting percentage of 8.5, which is a few points higher than his usual. He also saw an incredible team shooting percentage of 12 percent.

Long story short, the change in play style for increased shots is certainly a good one and might let him produce a little higher than a point per game in the future, but some things are going to have to go right again to break 90.

Hedman was definitely a wild card going into drafts. He had lost the top power-play gig in Tampa for very unclear reasons and it was a tossup who would get the job in 2023-24. Tie clearly goes to the veteran in this instance, and Hedman dealt with none of the inconsistency of 2022-23. He put up an 80-point pace number (the second highest of his career) and saw big rebounds in both power-play time, and in total time on ice.

His peripheral numbers were a bit low though. His shot rate was the lowest since 2016-17, his block rate was the lowest since 2010-11, and his hit rate the lowest since 2015-16. He made up for it with 31 power-play points (the second highest of his career), and 63 assists (you guessed it, also his second highest). At 33 he may be starting to trade some of the peripheral categories for offensive stats, but as long as he has that top power play, it is unlikely he will be falling off a cliff next season.

Moving on to the value part of the equation. In addition to total fantasy points I have also pulled average draft position data (ADP). These ADPs are based on preseason drafts so don't take into account leagues and drafts that started part way through the season. The idea here is that if we compare the draft position to the end of year fantasy points for all players, we can get an equation that lets us say, "on average a player with X draft position would be expected to get Y fantasy points." Once we have that we can compare that expected number to the player's actual number and see who performed the best based on their draft position. The ADP data below is compiled (averaged) from ESPN, Yahoo, and Fantrax ADPs for the 2023-24 season.

Our next table contains the players who provided the most value once we account for where they were drafted. I have included their ADP data, the fantasy points that were expected given that ADP and then the difference between those numbers.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	PTS	Fantasy Points	%PP	TOI	Average ADP	Expected Value	Difference
QUINN HUGHES	D	VAN	82	92	356.6	75.9	24:41	62.2	209.106	147.494
EVAN BOUCHARD	D	EDM	81	82	339	77.5	23:00	61	210.03	128.97
ROMAN JOSI	D	NSH	82	85	345.2	72.8	24:38	35.5	229.665	115.535
CALE MAKAR	D	COL	77	90	347.4	74.3	24:46	14.1	246.143	101.257
MATTIAS EKHOLM	D	EDM	79	45	218.8	19.6	21:03	171.9	124.637	94.163

Cale Makar and Roman Josi still provided excellent value even given their draft rankings – not a surprise, they have been consistently excellent for years. We have already touched on Hughes, so let's turn to Evan Bouchard.

Folks definitely had high hopes for Bouchard going into the season given his strong end of season, and playoffs during the 2022-23 season, but he clearly exceeded even those expectations. He got 23 minutes of total ice time, three and a half minutes on the power play, shot almost three times per game, and put up an 83-point pace with 35 power-play points. It was a great season, and there doesn't seem to be a reason he won't do it again.

His personal shooting percentage is maybe a little higher than we might expect compared to his previous history, but this is also the first year we have seen him in this role so we could also just be looking at the new norm for him as well. His playoff performance thus far certainly indicates there might be some more left in the tank.

Now we move on to the least valuable. These guys all underperformed their draft slot by significant margins. I tried to eliminate the most dramatic injury impacts with a games-played threshold.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	PTS	Fantasy Points	%PP	TOI	Average ADP	Expected Value	Difference
MATT GRZELCYK	D	BOS	63	11	61	2.8	17:36	167.4	128.102	-67.102
JACOB TROUBA	D	NYR	69	22	95.6	7.7	21:15	122.6	162.598	-66.998
ALEX PIETRANGELO	D	VGK	64	33	130.4	45.4	23:34	95.4	183.542	-53.142
AARON EKBLAD	D	FLA	51	18	109.2	26.8	20:52	125.4	160.442	-51.242
BRANDON MONTOUR	D	FLA	66	33	159.2	71.7	23:27	72.6	201.098	-41.898

Trouba is an interesting name here. I think there is a combination of things happening. Some of this 'disappointment' is league specific. Trouba is definitely more valuable in leagues that place a high premium on the peripheral stats vs the scoring stats. His draft ADP will reflect that while his production on this specific scoring structure won't necessarily. He also missed 13 games which lowered his counting stat totals. But he also got on the scoresheet less. His 26-point pace was his lowest since 2015-16 (though he was usually around 30 so it isn't like he was way off), plus his shot rates were below two and lower than his last couple of seasons. He did maintain his hit and block numbers though.

Overall, it isn't too concerning, though it does seem like Trouba's brief stint as the second power-play guy in New York is officially over. Getting about 30 percent of the time is probably what helped get him to that 30-point mark and two a half shots per game. He might fall a place or two down draft boards with less consistent shooting and point production, but he still looks valuable in multi-cat leagues.

Brandon Montour is the other name I wanted to touch base on. After a breakout 2022-23 season, people were clearly hoping for more in 2023-24. He started the season injured so we weren't expecting a higher game count, but clearly a 41-point pace once healthy isn't what drafters hoped they were stashing at the start of the season. He saw slight decreases in time on ice, and lost about a half of a shot per game. Those things probably would have prevented him from completely repeating his 75-point pace, but certainly does not explain a 35-point pace decline.

As we might expect, we do find some culprits in Montour's other stats. He was low across the board in his points participation numbers, his personal shooting percentage, and his team's shooting percentage while he was on the ice. If those numbers were more in line with his recent career averages, we might have seen a 60–65-point pace from Montour. That pace is much more in line with a player who saw some time on ice, shot rate, and expected goal drops from a 75-point season.

Given Montour's season is not yet over and he is technically a free agent this summer, there are definitely a couple of more shoes to drop before we can offer any real perspective on future value.

Finally, I will wrap the column with a few names. These are the guys who weren't drafted but provided the most fantasy points.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	PTS	Fantasy Points	%PP	TOI
THOMAS HARLEY	D	DAL	79	47	203.6	26.9	21:01
BROCK FABER	D	MIN	82	47	171.4	45.8	24:58
DYLAN DEMELO	D	WPG	82	31	145.2	1.7	21:44
OLIVER EKMAN-LARSSON	D	FLA	80	32	144.2	36.8	18:24
TRAVIS SANHEIM	D	PHI	81	44	141.4	28.6	23:49

Big takeaway here is watch out for those rookies. Thomas Harley and Brock Faber provided excellent value for big chunks of the season. Faber at least will likely have big expectations for next season, assuming Minnesota doesn't add a top power-play D, but Harley might fall a bit playing second fiddle to Miro Heiskanen.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Travis Sanheim were both flashes in the pan, but for slightly different reasons. Ekman-Larsson had some early season value with both Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour were out, while Travis Sanheim saw some huge early season deployment because… John Tortorella, and then lost out on it all because…Tortorella. Both would be interesting if they got similar chances again, but that likelihood is definitely low.

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