I'm trying to evaluate two players who may fly under the radar heading into drafts this year but did put up solid numbers in the games they did play in 2023-23.

First off, Alex Nylander, who was a revelation for Columbus in 23 games with them last season, scoring 11 goals and adding four assists. It was by far his best NHL stretch, so how likely is he to be a breakout/dark horse candidate for you next season?

Well, it all depends on the deployment he gets, and that situation in Columbus is very murky. Last year, Nylander was playing over 16 minutes a game, with two minutes of power play time, and his most frequent duo of linemates was Johnny Gaudreau and Boone Jenner. If that keeps up, then he could very conceivably keep up the 2.6 shots per game, a shooting percentage of 15%, and a scoring pace of over 50 points.

However, working against him is how crowded the winger slots are in Columbus. Gaudreau, Justin Danforth, Mathieu Olivier, Gavin Brindley, and Dmitri Vronkov are already signed to contracts for next season, along with Patrik Laine who could be back from the Player's Assistance program. On top of that, Yegor Chinakov, Kirill Marchenko, and Alex Texier are RFAs who will likely be re-signed. That's already nine wingers for eight spots, let alone anyone else that Columbus might bring in.

Intriguingly, Nylander is also up for a new contract, so his new deal will point a big arrow towards what we might expect of him. If he receives a two-way deal, then he's just injury insurance and will spend most of the year in the AHL. If it's a one-way deal over $1 million, then he's viewed as one of the wingers in the lineup that will need to be displaced. Anything in-between, and it will all just come down to the training camp battles and performances.

All in all, it's an uphill battle to a 50-point-pace again, but if he makes the team in a middle-six role out of camp, it's hard to see him with less than 30 points on the season. Make of that what you will.

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The other player I'm trying to wrap my head around is Shane Pinto, who was suspended half of a season (41 games) for links to (non-NHL related) sports gambling.

When he returned, he played all 41 games remaining in the season for the Sens, scoring 16 points in his first 18 games, and 27 overall. He was playing second-line minutes with Josh Norris on the shelf, and with Norris' status still up in the air, Pinto could be lining up on either the second or third line in the fall, throwing another wrench into trying to project him.

Ignoring his (very productive) 12-game stint as a rookie at the end of the 2020-21 season, his scoring rates have grown quite steadily, and he's 60 games away from his breakout threshold, meaning any time after the mid-way point of the season he's liable to kick things into high gear and starting to score at a 70-point-pace.

The positives with betting on Pinto to keep performing and growing are that the underlying numbers show no red flags. His team shooting percentage at even strength was low, meaning he was generally unlucky this past season. His personal shooting percentage, IPP, and secondary assist numbers also show that he wasn't just riding something unsustainable to his 54-point-pace.

As he approaches three shots, one hit, and one block per game, he's a very good option in multi-category leagues as well. If the ice time stays up (i.e. if Norris remains out) then he's going to catch a lot of poolies by surprise.

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I started my top-100 free agents thread by posting the top-100 a couple days ago, and nothing got more responses than from the Vancouver fanbase when asked about Filip Hronek.

I can't wait until I post the next 20 with Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov…

7) Filip Hronek – D (RFA – $6.05M)

Help me understand why everyone in VAN wants to trade Hronek, who has paced for 50 pts the last two years, is hitting his breakout threshold, and plays big minutes with Quinn Hughes. Any kind of term with an AAV $6M or under would be a bargain.

— Alex MacLean (@alexdmaclean) June 5, 2024

That's the post in question, and it was quickly pointed out to me that Hronek's camp has requested an AAV of $8M, which is just a smidge (read: way) too high.

Hronek is a solid defenceman, has some offensive upside, took a lot of heavy minutes, and played well alongside Quinn Hughes. It can't be understated how big of a deal it is to have a solid player to pair with your top guy, so they don't have to drag around Tommy BigStick all game.

The $6M projection for Hronek is probably on the lower end, but a slow second half may drag the eventual number down close to it.

If Hronek does get traded, I think Hughes takes a step back next season, and the Canucks spend all year trying to sort out how to replace him.

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Jamie Drysdale expected to be ready for Flyers training camp after surgery for "significant injury"https://t.co/dx4nMXpaLS

— Adam Kimelman (@NHLAdamK) June 6, 2024

Interesting news on Jamie Drysdale, and while it sounds like he should be ready for camp, a major surgery at this point in the team's offseason definitely raises some flags. Even if Drysdale is ready for camp, what kind of shape is he going to be able to show up in, and how does that affect the start of his season? Not a great look from someone who is already trying to shake the band-aid-boy moniker for us fantasy owners.

Puts a little bit more wind into the sails of Cam York and/or Travis Sanheim, who would be the favourites to run with the top power play if Drysdale misses time or struggles.

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If you're looking for prospect development, Leone is your guy. Had a great reputation with NHL scouts who covered the USHL https://t.co/YAqpIurKKa

— Ryan Kennedy (@THNRyanKennedy) June 6, 2024

This looks to be good news for those of us who own Sabres prospects in our dynasty leagues. With how deep the Sabres already are at forward, a key for them is going to be finding room in their prospect pool and then at the NHL level for everyone. LA struggled with that over the last number of years after they stockpiled a ridiculous amount of young talent, and we have seen hints of it in Buffalo already with some players like Peyton Krebs and Victor Neuchev who haven't quite found their footing yet.

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Yesterday was the start of testing at the NHL combine. We should see official heights, weights, and testing results soon. Remember that these really don't mean anything in a vacuum, but interviews or surprise results in one or two tests could really bump the perceived stock of a player.

Notoriously, Sam Bennett managed zero pull ups in his draft year, and was soon after selected fourth overall. It hasn't seemed to stop him managing well against NHL competition, especially in the playoffs where there is less space and more physicality.

I am always interested to see which prospect has added two inches or 20 pounds from their last measurements that give them a last-minute bump up the draft boards. I would expect that from Beckett Sennecke this year who has been said to have grown even taller of late.

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Friedman mentions he thinks the Blackhawks are seriously considering Jake Guentzel. Even considering him certainly marks a shift in willingness to dish out a big contract this summer, because that's what it would take. https://t.co/FkNzyFede3

— Ben Pope (@BenPopeCST) June 7, 2024

Interesting note here on Chicago looking at Jake Guentzel, who isn't as young as some may think, with him turning 30 in the fall, right around the start of the season. Why not target Sam Reinhart instead, who is a year younger? Maybe there's a feeling that Florida will find a way to keep Reinhart, or that Guentzel is going to age better.

Either way, it is an interesting development, because it shows that they want to try and insulate Bedard more, they won't be aiming for another bottom-three pick next season, and by targeting a top-line winger there is some more credence to the idea that they might select a defenceman 2^nd overall in the draft later this month.

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Both the Hershey Bears and Milwaukee Admirals avoided being swept in their respective AHL conference finals. Game five in each series goes tonight, though I feel like most are going to be watching a different game instead.

It's hard writing Ramblings sometimes without games on to help promote some new thoughts. If anyone has any topics or content they want covered now or through the offseason, shoot it my way and I will get to it.

As long as the Stanley Cup final doesn't end is a sweep, then I get to cover one more game this year, with game five falling on Tuesday June 18^th. Yes, we are as close to game-five of the Stanley Cup final as game five is to the NHL draft (now under three weeks away).

Who's your pick in the series between Florida and Edmonton?

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See you next Wednesday, and if you want to keep up with it you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.