Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

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If you do not yet have a copy of Dobber's 2023 Fantasy Prospect Report, do yourself a favour and go get one now. Like the Elite Prospects 2024 Draft Guide, which was also released recently, the Dobber FPR is required reading if you play in keeper and dynasty formats. It includes a customized Top 50 ranking from 14 scouts/writers (including Dobber himself), three Top-25 prospect goalie rankings, a list of "Blue-Chip Prospects" from around the league, and in-depth write-ups on ~15 prospects for all 32 teams.

There is no better way to keep track of which prospects are headed up, down, or staying the course and gain that vital edge on your competition.

As a bit of a teaser for the FPR, I am going to highlight some of the prospects that I had ranked higher than the other 13 writers. Generating a Top 50 list (criteria: no NHL games played) is a fascinating exercise every year, because as much as I pore over my list again and again, when I see it next to what others think, it is hard not to second-guess certain decisions.

The thing about prospects is that they are all about potential value. Until they start putting up points in the NHL, they are essentially worthless in fantasy except for how highly you and your fellow league-mates value them. Seeing how a panel of smart, perceptive writers view the prospect landscape headed into the summer can provide a clearer sense of whether to trade or acquire certain assets.

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Before we dive into that, a quick personal note: this will be my last week writing The Journey, which has been my weekly passion project since November 2021 when I took over from Hadi Kalakeche, now Dobber Prospects Director of North American Scouting.

Navigating the world of prospect evaluation is endlessly fascinating to me, and it has been an absolute joy digging into drafting strategies and trade angles, examining cognitive biases and logical fallacies in fantasy hockey, evaluating and revisiting draft classes, exploring why some AHL standouts can't hack it at the next level, tracking new developments in analytics like NHLz, digging into and applying innovative manual tracking projects, taking a stab at effectively evaluating and predicting goalie performance, and on and on.

I hope you have enjoyed reading along and been able to glean some insights over the years! I have learned a ton through this experience and am very grateful to Dobber and my gracious, supportive editor, Ian Gooding, for the opportunity to spend so much dedicated time sharing my thoughts on these topics with you all.

I will be passing the reins to Puneet Sharma, who has been managing the Chicago Blackhawks page for a while now over at Dobber Prospects. He is a fantastic writer with a ton of passion for this stuff, so the column is in good hands. Congratulations and best of luck to Puneet!

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At a Glance

Before digging into some of these players in greater depth, here is a quick overview of the prospects I was highest, higher, and lower on than the other 13 writers.

Highest on:

Zayne Parekh (2024): 7th

Danila Yurov (MIN): 8th

Zeev Buium (2024): 9th (tied with four other writers)

Mikhail Gulyayev (COL): 32nd

Adam Jiricek (2024): 40th (no other writer included him in their top 50)

Higher on:

3rd highest on Quentin Musty (SJS): 14th

2nd on Dalibor Dvorsky (STL): 11th

Tied for 2nd on Michael Brandsegg-Nygard: 25th

3rd on Beckett Sennecke (2024): 27th

3rd on Riley Heidt (MIN): 28th

2nd on Seamus Casey (NJD): 34th

3rd on Jordan Dumais (CBJ): 33rd

2nd on Igor Chernyshov (2024): 35th

2nd on Andrew Basha (2024): 42nd

2nd on Nick Lardis (CHI): 44th

2nd on Arseni Gritsyuk (2024): 47th

Tied for 3rd on Luca Cagnoni (SJS): 49th

Lower on:

One of three writers to not rank Fabian Lysell (BOS)

One of four to not rank Dmitri Simashev (UTA)

Third-lowest on Jonathan Lekkerimaki (VAN) at 39th

One of two writers to not rank Sam Dickinson (2024)

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Regrets

My main two regrets in retrospect (so far) are leaving off Zachary L'Heureux and falling for the "last name hype" of Adam Jiricek to rank him 40th, where I definitely should have had Sam Dickinson instead.

Both Jiricek and Cole Hutson will be major wildcards at fantasy drafts later this month for that exact reason: their brothers are so highly rated, and they actually do both have a fair bit of overlap with their siblings in terms of skillset, build, and approach to the game. But they also both seem to have more red flags and lower fantasy ceilings and NHL probabilities than David and Lane, so proceed with caution at the draft.

Reading through the extensive scouting reports on Adam Jiricek in the EP Draft Guide, however, there are far more negative viewings and red-flag concerns than positive viewings and praise. His mobility was already being questioned before his gnarly knee injury at the 2024 World Juniors, and many of the NHL scouts interviewed saw him as more of a two-way, 5th or 6th defender at the NHL level. With a do-over, I would drop him out of my Top 50, because there are a ton of great prospects that did not make the cut—such as Dickinson, who projects as a multi cat beast and already looks like a 30-year-old Kevin Bieksa.

"That's a strong suit of our team is how we bounce back."#NHLDraft prospect Sam Dickinson discussed the @LondonKnights' response to an early deficit in their #MemorialCup win over Moose Jaw on Monday 🎥 pic.twitter.com/oklW9kqHkt

— Ontario Hockey League (@OHLHockey) May 28, 2024

One thought I have about Adam Jiricek and Cole Hutson going into draft season: perhaps their skill sets matter less than their last names in certain leagues. If you can read the room in your league, so to speak, and grab either player low enough that you are not passing up other compelling prospects, that name recognition alone might be worth swinging on in terms of trade bait for a quick post-draft flip.

L'Heureux (NAS) still carries a ton of risk but is a true fantasy unicorn, a blend of Brad Marchand's scoring ability and Tom Wilson's physicality. If he hits (ha – pardon the pun), he will hit big as a significant multi-cat asset. Although his Milwaukee Admirals currently have their backs to the wall in the Calder Cup playoffs, down 3-1 to Coachella Valley (VGK affiliate), he is rocking 15 points (including 10 goals) in 14 playoff games so far. A very impressive performance that has elevated his fantasy value into blue-chip territory.

Were I to get a do-over on this year's Top 50 list, I could now see ranking L'Heureux as high as the mid-30s, even higher than our consensus of 44th. In fact, the seven writers who included him had him between 30th and 42nd. But his history of suspensions and reckless play with super-inflated PIM totals is also evident here with seven writers, including myself, leaving him out of our top 50 altogether.

Zachary L'Heureux is having a star-making playoff run with the @mkeadmiralspic.twitter.com/4qBURgaOuC

— Michael Gallagher (@MGsports_) May 16, 2024

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As anyone who has followed the column since the 2022 draft knows well, I have long been very high on Danila Yurov (MIN) and backed that up by ranking him 8th overall on my list this year — up from 24th last year.

The consensus on him was 20th: three writers had him at 15th, so there is some agreement on him as a top prospect, but five others had him in the 20s, two in the 30s/40s, and two left him out entirely. The Russian factor likely came into play here. I am so sick of that being a thing, but it unfortunately is. The geopolitical factor of Russia's ongoing war on Ukraine, plus the scare factor that he could pull an Alexander Radulov and decide to just stay in Russia, are real risks that must be considered when evaluating prospects playing over there.

But Yurov has built up quite a strong connection to the Wild's staff and players and has expressed excitement to potentially play alongside Russian superstar Kirill Kaprizov. In his case, I am not too worried about him staying in the KHL.

He greatly elevated his draft stock this year by leading Metallurg Magnitogorsk in scoring at age 20 with an impressive 49 points in only 62 games — good for 17th overall in the KHL. He also led them to a league championship, taking home the 2024 Gagarin Cup.

Danila Yurov with his dad and the Gagarin Cup. 👍 pic.twitter.com/gNPg3fNNWJ

— KHL (@khl_eng) April 25, 2024

One thing holding him back from attaining top-tier, blue-chip status prior to this year was that while he had an excellent, well-rounded skill set highlighted by high-end skating and puckhandling ability, he seemed to lack dynamism. That general perception, plus the Russian factor, was enough that I wrote about him in January 2023 as a declining keeper asset.

He sat 147th overall at that point in Dobber's Top Forward Prospects ranking and was being given extremely limited KHL ice time while also being sent up and down constantly from the MHL junior league. That resulted in an inscrutable 14-point KHL debut (59 games) that had many managers panicking after selecting him with an early pick.

This year, however, he consistently took over games, performed at a high level, and was indispensable to his team's attack.

Danila Yurov. My goodness #mnwild pic.twitter.com/DiuG23ZWIu

— Spoked Z (@SpokedZ) November 25, 2023

Yurov is signed with Metallurg through 2024-25. After that, watch out. He could feature in the Wild's top six as soon as 2025-26 and provide a similar-but-lower-end scoring infusion to what Kirill Kaprizov accomplished when he came over in 2020-21.

Danila Yurov is having a hell of a year. The Wild might hit again on the Russian lottery. pic.twitter.com/VPmBJLMARq

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) January 3, 2024

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Mikhail Gulyayev (COL) is actually going through a bit of a 2022-23 Yurov situation right now himself, though without the yo-yoing between leagues and paltry ice times.

Although he was an absolute development model darling (84% draft year star potential) based primarily on his strong D-1 and D0 MHL production, those fantasy managers tracking stats only and disregarding context were very disappointed by his 12 points in 64 KHL games this year. He currently sits 35th in the user-generated Rank King rankings for prospect defencemen, is outside the top 50 in Dobber's Top Prospect Defencemen rankings, and did not crack the Top 50 consensus rankings in the FPR.

In other words, his trade value is low right now.

In the leagues where I have Gulyayev, I am staying patient. I ranked him 32nd on my list because I still love his advanced mobility (EP skating score: 7.5) and offensive instincts. Contrary to general perception, I also view his 2023-24 campaign as a huge win because he stuck in the KHL all year and played decent minutes as an 18-year-old. Say what you will about the relative strength of the top Russian league these days, it is not too often that we see an undersized (5-10, 172 lbs), 18-year-old defender holding down a regular roster spot in the KHL.

Mikhail Gulyayev with his 4th goal of the season today, and currently leads all defensemen in ice time through two periods on Avangard. pic.twitter.com/lDyfP8IzVR

— Evan Rawal (@evanrawal) January 31, 2024

One thing I wrote about in relation to Matvei Michkov (PHI), who dropped in the 2023 draft due largely to a long, three-year wait time (which has since vanished — poof!), is a trend in fantasy to be more impatient with prospects playing overseas than in North America. Take the 2022 draft class, for instance: six players have 40+ games of NHL experience so far; 14 others have played a handful of games at the top level.

Going back to Yurov for a moment, even among the high-end first-round picks from 2022, most of them remain on a very similar timeline to the Wild prospect. If they were to make their NHL teams and provide an immediate impact in 2025-26 like I believe Yurov will, that would be considered a huge win. Guys like Cutter Gauthier (ANA), Shane Wright (SEA), Marco Kasper (DET), Matthew Savoie (BUF), Conor Geekie (UTA), Denton Mateychuk (CBJ), Frank Nazar (CHI), Rutger McGroarty (WPG), Jonathan Lekkerimaki (VAN), Joakim Kemell (NAS), Noah Ostlund (BUF), and Ivan Miroshnichenko (WAS) were all taken ahead of Yurov but have still not made the jump to the NHL. A few of them should arrive next year, but more of them will likely arrive the year after next.

This is a bias to take note of and self-examine: do you feel less impatient with players in the NCAA, CHL, and AHL versus the VHL/KHL? The KHL is still considered the third-best professional hockey league in the world, so Yurov will likely make his NHL debut with far more pro-level experience under his belt than most of the players listed above.

I feel the same about Gulyayev. He could have almost 200 KHL games on his resume by the time he turns 21 and potentially sees North American ice. How many of the seven defenders taken ahead of him in 2023 will hit the NHL before then with more pro experience? Food for thought. Certainly no reason to panic and sell low.

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Quentin Musty (SJS) at 14th overall looks even better now that Macklin Celebrini is (un)officially a Shark. He has strong potential to become an integral piece of this team's core alongside Celebrini, Will Smith, and William Eklund, supported by Thomas Bordeleau, Kasper Halttunen, Shakir Mukhamadullin, Henry Thrun, and Luca Cagnoni.

There will still be a good deal of suffering in San Jose in the short term, but I'm buying the players listed above everywhere I can if the price is right — or holding them if I already have them. Like Bedard's Blackhawks and Michkov's Flyers, fantasy managers are going to want in on this team in the near-ish future and prices are only going up.

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I am a big fan of Riley Heidt (28th) — but not as big a fan as Puneet (11th), so I anticipate Heidt's name will be featured in this column moving forward. Although he put up nearly 100 points as a draft-eligible and boasted an above-average-to-high-end skill set across the board, there were concerns about his average frame (5-11, 183 lbs), defensive deficiencies, inflated power play production (45% of his D0 output), and translatability.

What caught my eye with him aside from the production and obvious talent was his physicality. The EP team used the word "nasty" several times and called him "an enthusiastic combatant in scrums". That assessment jived with what our team at Dobber Prospects noticed too, that his versatility gave him a third-line floor and his skill gives him a solid shot at top-six action. To my mind, that lessens the risk of him being a one-dimensional, boom-bust type like Washington's Andrew Cristall, for instance.

Model-wise, he has posted consistent year-over-year improvements and is so far on a sparkling trajectory.

Riley Heidt… last pick of the 2nd round… insane value. https://t.co/NiDPdlCRuB pic.twitter.com/96BShOMr1G

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) March 24, 2024

My main concern is that he has to return to the WHL for a fifth year in 2024-25 because of the CHL-NHL agreement that prevents teenagers from playing in the AHL. After putting up 117 points in 66 games this past campaign after 97 in 68 the year before, what does he have left to prove with Prince George? I am worried that next year will represent a stalling point in his development, like what we saw from Seth Jarvis when he was left to marinate in the WHL past his expiry date at that level. Players can get bored or develop bad junior-level habits.

Still, in terms of prospect value, Heidt is a valuable piece to own that should just become more valuable moving forward. Ranking him at 28th still feels good, even though it was ahead of the consensus of 39th.

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Thanks for reading! Follow me on X @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.