Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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The DobberHockey Prospects Report is available for download! Get yours at the Dobber Sports Store.

It’s a must-read if you have prospects on your keeper team, or just want to get a head start on who’s coming. I haven’t had a chance to read it all, but it’s always on my desktop if I need to refer to it either in my writing or for one of my fantasy teams.

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1. The DobberHockey writers have made their picks for the Stanley Cup Final. You can check them out here.

My personal pick was Edmonton in 6. This was a really difficult pick for me to make. Florida is a nasty team that will give the Oilers everything they can handle, and they’re favored for good reason. I also haven’t been as high on the Oilers as others, thinking that they have some noticeable flaws (which are still there, but haven’t been as apparent lately). The switch flipped for them partway through the Vancouver series, when they started to push back physically against the Canucks and really dictate the play. That seemed to build their confidence and they were able to ride that through the Dallas series.

2. In terms of the number of games, I don’t think it will go 7. Stanley Cup Finals are usually wars of attrition, so whoever wins could do so quickly. That’s not meant as disrespect to the other team. That’s just a team running out of gas with injuries piling up.

Connor McDavid is also going to win a Stanley Cup. I can’t say for sure it will be this season, and I can’t even say with complete certainty that it will be with Edmonton. He’s the best player in the NHL, and all the players you could say that about (Howe, Orr, Gretzky, Lemieux, Crosby, Ovechkin, etc.) have all found a way to win it at least once. The Oilers of the McDavid era have never looked better, and this could finally be their year. (As much as it pains me as a Canucks fan to say that.) (jun7)

3. One other note on the Stanley Cup Final, is that I think this has to be the end of the notion that teams with high-pair star players can’t win. There does also have to be a certain level of depth, but regardless of whether Edmonton or Florida win the cup, we will be at least doubling the list of players with eight-figure cap hits to win the Cup (Jack Eichel being the only one to date).

McDavid could become the top-paid player to ever win the Cup if the Oilers win, but if the Panthers take the series then we get both Aleksander Barkov and Sergei Bobrovsky joining the list.

Additionally, both teams have three players making at least $8.5 million, and are paying a backup goalie at least $4.5 million. Not exactly the most efficient or spread-out use of cap between the two teams, but they are making it work with top-end star power, and excellent depth production.

With the cap set to rise over $87 million this next season, and possibly to $92 million the year after, these bigger deals are going to be more and more prevalent. The interesting thing is that the base salary isn’t rising nearly as fast, meaning that those paid closer to the league minimum make a bigger difference on a team’s cap sheet in making room for the big guns. Something to think about and possibly translate to your cap leagues. (june5)

4. Jamie Drysdale underwent surgery for a “significant” injury in April, but he is expected to be ready for training camp. The type of injury Drysdale had was not revealed. Either way, Drysdale’s recent injury history is concerning, as he has played in just 42 total games over the past two seasons. If he can stay healthy, Drysdale could have some value next season if he is able to quarterback the Flyers’ top power play. (jun7)

5. Last week I listed my personal best picks from my various fantasy teams. These could have been players that I drafted, won in auction, or added on the waiver wire. Now it’s time to fess up and list the players that I thought were my worst picks.

Listing these players here doesn’t necessarily mean they have horrible seasons, although that certainly was the case for at least one player on this list. It’s also about where the player was picked and who else was on the board at the time. Building a winning fantasy hockey roster involves determining relative worth compared to other players. At the end of the season, these players did not stack up to their relative worth before the season.

To be included on the list, these players had to be on my roster for at least half the season. In other words, this is not about players who were quick adds that weren’t on my roster long enough to do any significant damage. (jun7)

For example: 

6. Jason Robertson

In the end, Robertson was a high pick that didn’t turn out as badly as someone like Tage Thompson or even Tim Stutzle. Yet early in the season, I was already regretting passing up Jack Hughes for Robertson. In the end, Robertson ended up with more points than Hughes, but Hughes also missed 20 games. At 10^th overall, Robertson didn’t seem like the wrong pick at the time, but I could have received more bang for my buck with someone like Brady Tkachuk or Cale Makar, who were both picked shortly after. To put it another way, we’re in an era where we need a first-round pick (12-team format) to be a 100-point player, and Robertson simply wasn’t in 2023-24. (jun7)

7. And… Timo Meier

There’s also a caveat to this one. Meier was one of my top players in the final quarter of the season, as he scored 15 goals and totalled 24 points in just 21 games. During that span, he also averaged over three shots per game and picked up 10 power-play points. You can justify those kinds of numbers from a third-round pick in a 14-team league (I picked him 31^st overall).

The problem was that Meier didn’t meet the standards of a 35-40 ADP in Yahoo for the rest of the season. Over the first three quarters, Meier totalled 13 goals, 28 points, and seven power-play points in 48 games, averaging under three shots per game. There was rumor that he was battling an injury, and he happened to miss the last two weeks of November while slumping badly for nearly three weeks after his return. I would certainly not hesitate to draft Meier again in the future, but a third-round pick is too much of a reach. If he can return to averaging over four shots per game with over 100 hits again, he will be a very valuable player in multicat leagues. (jun7)

[Follow the link for more…]

8. I have spent the offseason reviewing the fantasy seasons of non-playoff teams. This covered the San Jose Sharks, the Chicago Blackhawks, the Anaheim Ducks, the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Montreal Canadiens, the Arizona Coyotes (now in Utah), the Ottawa Senators, the Seattle Kraken, the Calgary Flames, the New Jersey Devils, the Buffalo Sabres, the Philadelphia Flyers, the Minnesota Wild, the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Detroit Red Wings, and the St. Louis Blues. Check them out by clicking on the team names…

9. Today, let’s talk briefly about the regular seasons of some of the eliminated playoff teams. These Ramblings will cover the Western Conference as the Eastern Conference was written about on Tuesday. Data from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, and AllThreeZones, unless otherwise indicated.

Los Angeles Kings

Following their third straight first round exit from the playoffs at the hands of the Edmonton Oilers, it is very fair to ask where the Kings go from here. CapFriendly has them with less than $20M in cap space and five RFAs to sign, including Quinton Byfield and Jordan Spence, plus their goaltending to fill out.

A big question for the fantasy realm will be whether Pierre-Luc Dubois can bounce back. He had 16 goals (lowest total for him in six seasons where he played at least 50 games) and 40 points (ditto) in 82 games and that’s just brutal production. Here is the fun part: both his rate of 1.24 total assists/60 and 0.79 primary assists/60 minutes at 5-on-5 were the highest of his career. One reason he managed that was he attacked the middle offensively as his tracked rate of center-lane passes was in the 93^rd percentile of forwards and among some very productive players: (june6)

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10. It was interesting to see from Dobber (who typically has more of a lean towards prospects closer to NHL production) that his top prospects list had a bit more of a lean towards the 2024 crop than other DobberProspects Reps. I’m excited for this year’s draft because of the talent available, but also because it’s the first one I’m covering with my scouting and draft research. I'm beginning to recognize some of the most consistent scouting sources for their top-10 rankings.

Standardized Scout Ranking in the Top-10 – Last Three Years (2018-2020):

Sebastian High, DobberProspects.com
Blue Bullet Brad
Chris Peters
Bob McKenzie
DobberProspects.com

On top of that, I find there’s no better resource for starting the offseason in my dynasty league than sitting with the guide (DobberHockey Prospects Report ), reading up on all of my prospects at once, and sorting through which ones make sense to keep and move. Then the work starts on who to target. The guide is worth it just on reading and interest alone, but with how much value it provides for fantasy leagues, it’s a must. (june5)

11. To finish off the Memorial Cup thoughts from the last week, Owen Beck won the MVP award after an excellent tournament that culminated in three points in the final championship game, which Saginaw won. He’s done in juniors now, and looked every bit the part of the third line center for the Habs next season. With Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach around on the wings as well, along with Evans to take some of the heavier matchups, the opportunity is there. It’s just up to Beck to have a great camp and show he belongs. (june5)

12. Sam Dickinson and his performance across the season but especially in the Memorial Cup tournament is going to have some GM early on snap him up. There’s no way the 200 hockey men let him drop outside the top-10, and if Montreal wasn’t already stacked on defense, then I would say it’s unlikely he slips past the top-five.

I also said something very similar recently about Anton Silayev, which means that there will certainly be a few top forwards that drop. Adam Jiricek, Stian Stolberg, and probably one or two other defensemen as well are likely all gone by pick #20.

Some of those teams in the late teens and early 20s who would probably select the top forward available anyways like the Capitals or Islanders must be licking their chops. The added benefit for those players that end up slipping a bit, is there is likely a lot less competition in front of them. (june5)

13. It certainly sounds as though Joe Pavelski is retiring. Stick taps to him as a great player and what we hear to have been a great teammate as well. He was drafted in the seventh round all the way back in 2003, then put up a no-doubter Hall-of-Fame career. It’s too bad he never won a cup as a player, but I hope he joins a management office and wins one eventually.

His hole on the top line in the regular season is likely either taken by Logan Stankoven or Tyler Seguin, which would be a boon to either’s fantasy value.

Blake Wheeler has also answered “I don’t know” to whether he would be back next season. I would give the better odds to him retiring rather than returning for one more season. (june5)

14. I’m trying to evaluate two players who may fly under the radar heading into drafts this year but did put up solid numbers in the games they did play in 2023-23.

First off, Alex Nylander, who was a revelation for Columbus in 23 games with them last season, scoring 11 goals and adding four assists. It was by far his best NHL stretch, so how likely is he to be a breakout/dark horse candidate for you next season?

Well, it all depends on the deployment he gets, and that situation in Columbus is very murky. Last year, Nylander was playing over 16 minutes a game, with two minutes of power play time, and his most frequent duo of linemates was Johnny Gaudreau and Boone Jenner. If that keeps up, then he could very conceivably keep up the 2.6 shots per game, a shooting percentage of 15%, and a scoring pace of over 50 points.

However, working against him is how crowded the winger slots are in Columbus. Gaudreau, Justin Danforth, Mathieu Olivier, Gavin Brindley, and Dmitri Vronkov are already signed to contracts for next season, along with Patrik Laine who could be back from the Player’s Assistance program. On top of that, Yegor Chinakov, Kirill Marchenko, and Alex Texier are RFAs who will likely be re-signed. That’s already nine wingers for eight spots, let alone anyone else that Columbus might bring in.

Intriguingly, Nylander is also up for a new contract, so his new deal will point a big arrow towards what we might expect of him. If he receives a two-way deal, then he’s just injury insurance and will spend most of the year in the AHL. If it’s a one-way deal over $1 million, then he’s viewed as one of the wingers in the lineup that will need to be displaced. Anything in-between, and it will all just come down to the training camp battles and performances.

All in all, it’s an uphill battle to a 50-point-pace again, but if he makes the team in a middle-six role out of camp, it’s hard to see him with less than 30 points on the season. Make of that what you will. (june8)

15. The other player I’m trying to wrap my head around is Shane Pinto, who was suspended half of a season (41 games) for links to (non-NHL related) sports gambling.

When he returned, he played all 41 games remaining in the season for the Sens, scoring 16 points in his first 18 games, and 27 overall. He was playing second-line minutes with Josh Norris on the shelf, and with Norris’ status still up in the air, Pinto could be lining up on either the second or third line in the fall, throwing another wrench into trying to project him.

Ignoring his (very productive) 12-game stint as a rookie at the end of the 2020-21 season, his scoring rates have grown quite steadily, and he’s 60 games away from his breakout threshold, meaning any time after the mid-way point of the season he’s liable to kick things into high gear and starting to score at a 70-point-pace.

The positives with betting on Pinto to keep performing and growing are that the underlying numbers show no red flags. His team shooting percentage at even strength was low, meaning he was generally unlucky this past season. His personal shooting percentage, IPP, and secondary assist numbers also show that he wasn’t just riding something unsustainable to his 54-point-pace.

As he approaches three shots, one hit, and one block per game, he’s a very good option in multi-category leagues as well. If the ice time stays up (i.e. if Norris remains out) then he’s going to catch a lot of poolies by surprise. (june8)

16. I started my top-100 free agents thread by posting the top-100 a couple days ago, and nothing got more responses than from the Vancouver fanbase when asked about Filip Hronek.

@alexmaclean: Help me understand why everyone in VAN wants to trade Hronek, who has paced for 50 pts the last two years, is hitting his breakout threshold, and plays big minutes with Quinn Hughes. Any kind of term with an AAV $6M or under would be a bargain.

That’s the post in question, and it was quickly pointed out to me that Hronek’s camp has requested an AAV of $8M, which is just a smidge (read: way) too high.

Hronek is a solid defenseman, has some offensive upside, took a lot of heavy minutes, and played well alongside Quinn Hughes. It can’t be understated how big of a deal it is to have a solid player to pair with your top guy, so they don’t have to drag around Tommy BigStick all game.

The $6M projection for Hronek is probably on the lower end, but a slow second half may drag the eventual number down close to it. If Hronek does get traded, I think Hughes takes a step back next season, and the Canucks spend all year trying to sort out how to replace him. (june8)

17. In fantasy hockey, when a player’s production improves from one year to the next we turn to the 25th letter of the alphabet. Y. Why were they more productive? Was it better linemates? More ice time? More offensively focused deployment? Luck? Determining the factors behind improved production can help us decide whether that higher level of offense is repeatable or if it’s an anomaly. In today’s Ramblings, I thought I’d hone in on one common explanation for improved individual offense: more power-play opportunity. 

Below are a few players who produced more this past regular season thanks to more power-play time:

Ryan O’Reilly

O’Reilly spent the 22-23 campaign in St. Louis and Toronto, seeing a 38% share of power-play time between the two teams. It was the only year out of the last 13 that he’s seen a minority share of PP time. Unsurprisingly, it coincided with his lowest power-play point total and point per-game pace of the last 13 years. O’Reilly’s jump from a 46-point pace last year to a 69-point pace this past regular season is thanks in large part to a prominent power-play role. He saw 63% of Nashville’s total time on the man advantage and racked up a career-high 28 power-play points. He should maintain a similar power-play role next year, enabling him to flirt with a 60-point pace again. (june3)

18. Mikael Granlund

Granlund’s ascension from a 43-point pace to a 71-point pace can be explained by the expanded role he enjoyed on a Sharks’ team devoid of talent. He averaged 18 minutes a night between Nashville and Pittsburgh last year but jumped up to 21 per game this past regular season. That increased role extended to the man advantage as his share of power-play time jumped from 49% to 72%. His power-play production doubled as he went from 0.15 PPP/game to 0.33. 

Next season marks the final year of Granlund’s current contract. Considering he’s 32 years old and San Jose is rebuilding and getting younger, it’s fair to assume he’ll be dealt before the trade deadline. Such a move may be troublesome for Granlund’s fantasy value as he’s unlikely to see such a high volume of action wherever he lands. A role reduction could lead to lower point totals unless he sees an offsetting upgrade in linemate quality. (june3)

19. Seth Jarvis

The 22-year-old forward’s third season in the NHL ended up being his best so far. After averaging just over 16 minutes of ice time last season, he soared up to nearly 19 this year. The extra opportunity helped him jump from a 39-point pace to a 68-point pace. That alone would have been an impressive accomplishment but it becomes ludicrous when you realize he played most of the season with a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his shoulder. 

After playing a secondary role with the man advantage in years one and two, Jarvis jumped into a primary gig this season, eating minutes that once belonged to Martin Necas. After tallying just five points with the man advantage last year, Jarvis racked up 20 this year. Although both Jarvis and Necas enter this summer as restricted free agents, Necas’ name has come up more often in trade rumors, suggesting that Jarvis is less expendable among the two right now. That means Jarvis should continue seeing a high volume of opportunity beside high quality players in Carolina next year, leading to another year of high-level production. (june3)

20. Frank Vatrano

Numerous factors contributed to Vatrano’s career-best 37-goal/60-point showing this past year, but power-play opportunity was certainly one of them. Last year, he saw 36% of Anaheim’s total time with the man advantage and he tallied just nine power-play points. This year, he was up at 52% and racked up 20 PPPs. While he deserves to be recognized for an impressive performance, I wouldn’t target him in fantasy formats next season. Anaheim has an abundance of young talent with skill sets made for the power play – guys like Trevor Zegras, Mason McTavish, Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier and Troy Terry. I think that Vatrano – who’s 30 years old and a UFA after next season – will lose some opportunity to high-pedigree candidates next year. (june3)

21. Jonathan Drouin

Drouin’s tumultuous tenure in Montreal is well-documented, but I’ll remind you that it ended with a whimper. He posted a 41-point pace during his final season with the Habs, skating roughly 15 minutes per game and seeing 46% of the Canadiens’ time with the man advantage. This year, his first in Colorado, he was able to rejuvenate his career in a higher profile role beside QMJHL teammate Nathan MacKinnon. Drouin’s overall ice time jumped three minutes in Colorado but he also enjoyed a much greater role with the man advantage, seeing 67% of the team’s total power-play time. That helped him jump from nine PPPs last year in Montreal to 19 during this past regular season with the Avalanche. He needs a new contract for next season, but if he stays in Colorado, I imagine his role will be similar to next year. That being said, a healthy Gabriel Landeskog could push Drouin down the depth chart, so proceed with caution. (june3)

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Have a good week, folks!

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