Ramblings: Bobrovsky Leads Florida to 1-0 Cup Lead; Power Play Usage for Lapierre, Meier, Newhook, Lindholm, Skinner, and More – June 9
Michael Clifford
2024-06-09
Florida got off to a quick start in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final as Aleksander Barkov was able to break down the Edmonton forecheck, get up the ice, and two quick passes later resulted in a goal from Carter Verhaeghe. It doesn't take long for these Panthers to get up the ice and get the puck in the back of the net:
The second period didn't go any better for Edmonton as the Cody Ceci–Darnell Nurse pairing did what they do best, and that's give up a goal against that should have never happened. Here is Evan Rodrigues, somehow finding a wide open shot from the slot despite it being a 2-on-4:
That gave Florida a 2-0 lead, which is where the game stood after 40 minutes.
It was a tight third period but Edmonton was held off the scoresheet as Florida added an empty netter from Eetu Luostarainen with a few seconds left on the clock. The 3-0 win gave them the 1-0 series lead.
Sergei Bobrovsky was the star of the game with the 33-save shutout. It wasn't an easy night, either, as he had a great stop off a turnover by Zach Hyman very early on the contest and stopped a couple of breakaways besides that. He stole the show, and the series lead, for the Panthers.
Sam Bennett had an assist, two shots, two PIMs, and 11 hits in the game.
Aleksander Barkov had two assists, two shots, four blocks, and three hits.
Game 2 is Monday night in Florida.
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I have spent the offseason reviewing the fantasy seasons of non-playoff teams. This covered the San Jose Sharks, the Chicago Blackhawks, the Anaheim Ducks, the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Montreal Canadiens, the Arizona Coyotes (now in Utah), the Ottawa Senators, the Seattle Kraken, the Calgary Flames, the New Jersey Devils, the Buffalo Sabres, the Philadelphia Flyers, the Minnesota Wild, the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Detroit Red Wings, and the St. Louis Blues.
** Be sure to grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!**
This era of the NHL is defined by special teams. We only need to look at the four Conference finalists: all four teams were inside the top-10 in the regular season by power play goals-for per 60 minutes while three of the four were top-8 for fewest power play goals against per 60 minutes (Edmonton was 15th overall, but ninth after American Thanksgiving). That includes the fantasy realm now that players are routinely passing 25, if not 30, power play points; the total number of skaters with at least 25 power play points in 2023-24 was 49 whereas just 32 did so in 2018-19. That is an increase of 53% in just five years.
For today's Ramblings, it's worth looking at which players saw the biggest rise or decline in team share of power play time down the stretch of the 2023-24 regular season. We are going to use a cutoff of March 3rd because March 4th was the week of the Trade Deadline when players were on the move or getting healthy scratched in anticipation of getting moved. The data is from Frozen Tools.
For posterity, here are the nine players whose PP usage jumped at least 20%:
Let's talk about a few of those names.
Hendrix Lapierre
The biggest jump by a wide margin came from Lapierre, who was rarely used for three-quarters of the season and then received nearly half the power play time down the stretch. There were some players missing as Anthony Mantha and Evgeny Kuznetsov were traded while TJ Oshie (14 games played out of 22) and Tom Wilson (15/22) missed a big chunk of the final push to the playoffs. It is fair to wonder if it was anything Lapierre did specifically or if the team was just running out of bodies to use.
Going into next season, the Capitals still have Wilson, Dylan Strome, and Alex Ovechkin, but Kuznetsov and Mantha will not be back, Oshie's future is in question, Nicklas Backstrom is effectively retired, and Max Pacioretty is a free agent. Those are five players that could have all conceivably been ahead of Lapierre on the PP depth chart. There are prospects like Ryan Leonard and Andrew Cristall on the way, but this is not a franchise that has used younger players in top roles very often in recent memory. Maybe Ivan Miroshnichenko takes a step forward, but that's about it.
Washington scored 11.7 goals per 60 minutes when Lapierre was on the ice for the power play over those final six and a half weeks. A lot of that can be attributed to an unsustainable 22.5% shooting, but it will have left a good final impression on the coaching staff, and that could give Lapierre the inside track to top power play time to start the 2024-25 season. When considering a late-round fantasy pick like him, the opportunity to produce is all we can ask for.
Timo Meier
Tyler Toffoli was sent to Winnipeg but rather than Dawson Mercer or Ondrej Palat getting the extra power play time, it was Meier. Going into next season, all those players are returning (save Toffoli, in all likelihood) and it doesn't seem as if the Devils are set on giving Alex Holtz that spot just yet. With New Jersey being a team that gives its top PP unit roughly a 70/30 split, there's a big opportunity here for Meier to build off his strong finish that saw great overall production, but also 10 power play points over his final 23 games. Considering he had just seven PPPs in the prior 46 games, that is a huge leap in PP output.
Meier is not a player that typically goes underrated in drafts, especially in banger formats. He brings too much value across the board to ever really be undervalued. We will have to see where things stand in a couple of months once the roster is set, but even in a 'down' year from Meier, his 82-game paces were for 33 goals, 29 assists, 20 power play points, 246 shots, 132 hits, and 50 blocks. If that's what he paced for in a season where the team had several key injuries and Meier earned just 44% of the PP time, what will he do if the team is healthy and he's earning 65% of the PP time? Even if he's a top-75 pick, that could be very good value in fantasy leagues counting hits.
Alex Newhook
With Sean Monahan traded and Newhook healthy, it was Newhook that took the top power play time that was left over. It isn't as if it was very successful, though, as the team scored 6.9 power play goals per 60 minutes with Newhook as the fourth forward against a rate of 12.6 goals per 60 minutes with Monahan. The team will be aware of this, so it's far from a guarantee that Newhook gets that role back to start the 2024-25 season.
Compounding the problem is a healthy Kirby Dach. Aside from any prospects that might get some time there, it's Dach that likely takes top power play time and not Newhook. Dach missed nearly the entire season, but he was on the top unit in his only full game and led the team in power play time back in 2022-23. This is a situation where even if Newhook got the role down the stretch, he's unlikely to keep it to start the 2024-25 campaign.
At the other end of the spectrum, here are the seven forwards who lost at least 25% of their power play role down the stretch:
Most of those make sense. Sean Couturier fell out of favour with the coaching staff in Philadelphia to the point where he wasn't just removed from the power play but removed from the lineup entirely. Adam Henrique was sent to Edmonton where the top power play unit was etched in stone, so he wasn't going to get anywhere near the same time that he did in Anaheim. There are a couple of names that are very interesting, however.
Elias Lindholm
He was traded a month before the deadline, but Lindholm went from The Guy in Calgary to A Guy in Vancouver. He did get some run on the top PP unit, but with the Canucks eyeing a Stanley Cup, they weren't going to leave Lindholm on the top unit considering their goal rate with him was under 6.0 goals per 60 minutes. He did have a good postseason, but the move to the Canucks did not do much to help his value as a free agent.
As for the 2024-25 season, Lindholm's PP outlook entirely depends on his landing spot. If he can land in, say, Chicago or San Jose, then there is a top PP role waiting for him. But if he lands with a team that is already a playoff squad – or hoping to be one – where there is a lot of existing competition (Utah, Buffalo, Columbus) then it's by no means a guarantee. We will pick this back up in a month once he's signed somewhere, but Lindholm's run with Vancouver did not make him stand out in any way that should make us think he'll be a go-to guy on a new team as he was in Calgary.
Jeff Skinner
Lost in Buffalo's stumble of a season and Lindy Ruff being brought in last month is the fact that Skinner lost the top PP role in Buffalo for a long stretch to finish the season. Of course, Alex Tuch and Tage Thompson remained, but it was JJ Peterka and Dylan Cozens getting good usage for most of those 20 games. With Ruff now the head coach, there could be a blank slate here for Skinner, but as we saw with Meier in New Jersey under Ruff earlier in the article, a veteran scorer is not guaranteed a top power play role. It is all about how things are going in the moment, and if Skinner doesn't earn his role, there are replacements available (not including Jack Quinn or any forward they bring in). The fact that Skinner lost that role after Casey Mittelstadt was traded is not a great sign.
We will pick back up on Skinner once we have a clearer idea of what Buffalo's roster will look like. They have no top-6 forwards needing a new contract, still have plenty of prospects on the way, and have $23M in cap space. This is a team that should be active this offseason, and one or two big additions up front could really be to the detriment of Skinner's fantasy upside.