Ramblings: Florida Takes 2-0 Series Lead; Playoff Performances from Ovechkin, Marner, Lohrei, Roslovic, Svechnikov, and More – June 11

Michael Clifford

2024-06-11

It was a rough first period for a number of players during Game 2 between Florida and Edmonton. Darnell Nurse took a hit early-ish in the period and left the game for stretches at a time (he would miss about 20 minutes of game action but did come back), and then Eetu Luostarainen took a knee from Warren Foegele that resulted in a 5-minute major and an ejection. Late in the period, Aaron Ekblad got his right ankle rolled under him on a rush by Connor McDavid, and that was not long after Evan Rodrigues took an awkward hit in the offensive zone and looked a step slow the rest of the frame. It was a rough period, indeed.

That 5-minute major by Foegele was cut short thanks to a tripping penalty by Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Mattias Ekholm made good at 4-on-4 by ripping a wrist shot through Sergei Bobrovsky to make it 1-0 Edmonton. It was 11 minutes into the period and their first shot of the game, as well as the first goal of the series.

Niko Mikkola tied things up near the midway mark of the second period after firing on his own net (seriously) and then racing down the ice to finish off the drop pass:

Evan Rodrigues scored twice less than 10 minutes apart in the third period to give Florida a 3-1 lead, and they would wind up with a 4-1 win thanks to an Ekblad empty netter. It was an intense third period that saw numerous scoring chances and questionable plays, particularly late once the game was out of hand. It should make for a very interesting Game 3 in Edmonton on Thursday night.

Ekblad finished the game with that goal on four shots, two blocks, and three hits. Rodrigues had a pair of hits to go with his goals while Anton Lundell had two helpers, a shot, a block, and two hits.

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I have spent the offseason reviewing the fantasy seasons of non-playoff teams. This covered the San Jose Sharks, the Chicago Blackhawks, the Anaheim Ducks, the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Montreal Canadiens, the Arizona Coyotes (now in Utah), the Ottawa Senators, the Seattle Kraken, the Calgary Flames, the New Jersey Devils, the Buffalo Sabres, the Philadelphia Flyers, the Minnesota Wild, the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Detroit Red Wings, and the St. Louis Blues.

** Be sure to grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!**

The NHL Finals are underway but there are a lot more than just two playoff teams worth talking about. Last week, these Ramblings discussed the regular season performance of one player from most of the eliminated playoff teams. Today, we'll review some key playoff performances from each of the eliminated teams. This Ramblings will go over the Eastern Conference and in a couple days we'll go over the Western Conference.

Data from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, and Frozen Tools. Tracking data from AllThreeZones.

Washington Capitals

The Caps were swept in four straight by the New York Rangers, scoring just seven goals in the four games. For his part, Alex Ovechkin was a non-factor for the entire series. He had just five shots on 22 shot attempts, a total of attempts that was lower than both John Carlson and Hendrix Lapierre. Ovechkin was held pointless in the four games.

It wasn't just a bit of bad luck that he had zero points, either. The tracking data had Ovi with zero scoring chances in his 43 tracked minutes at 5-on-5, and zero scoring chance assists (helpers on teammate chances). He also managed zero contributions off the rush. In fact, there were just two Caps to post zeroes across these three categories, and they are as follows:

Four playoff games shouldn't hugely sway anyone's opinion, but given how much Ovechkin struggled to produce much in the regular season, it is fair to wonder how much gas is left in the tank.

New York Islanders

With five points and 15 shots in five games, Mathew Barzal led the Islanders in the former while leading them by 5-on-5 shots, finishing third by overall shots. He followed up his first point-per-game regular season in six years with a point-per-game performance in the playoffs, showing himself as the engine of the team's offence.

When looking at the tracking data, there were nine skaters to reach at least 8.0 scoring chance contributions (individual chances plus helpers on teammate chances) and 11.0 rush contributions (shots and assists off the rush) per 60 minutes a 5-on-5. This is the list:

Nathan MacKinnon is in his own tier, but Barzal not being far from Leon Draisaitl should tell us what kind of performance Barzal turned in.

The question for Barzal is whether he can ever really hit his upside playing for this Islanders roster. He doesn't really have an elite player to play off of, even if Bo Horvat is a good offensive performer in his own right. Playing 21 minutes a night will help alleviate some of those concerns, but relying on that much ice time brings is always precarious because that's on the whim of the coaching staff.

Toronto Maple Leafs

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Scoring 12 goals in seven games is a big reason why the Leafs were bounced in the first round. Injuries to William Nylander and Auston Matthews certainly didn't help matters, and I still maintain that Mitch Marner was playing injured basically all season long (and there are rumours that he was not recovered from his high-ankle sprain in March). For those reasons, it's hard to say the Leafs flat-out underachieved, but rather were hamstrung by injury to their key players.

It was a curious postseason for Marner. I am not here to debate his effort or reticence or whatever else, but I will say that of all players that had at least 75 tracked minutes at 5-on-5, Marner led the way by chance assists per 60 minutes. In fact, he had more chance assists (13) in just under 100 tracked minutes as Artemi Panarin had in nearly 160 tracked minutes:

The Leafs scored just three 5-on-5 goals in seven games with Marner on the ice, and Marner was involved in all of them (one goal, two primary assists). The rest of the Leafs shot 5.4% with Marner on the ice, but it's fair to wonder exactly whose fault it was. We will have to see what the Leafs do in the offseason, but I'm starting to think there's going to be a discount on Marner at the draft table in September. If he is anywhere outside the top-20 players by ADP, then I will be very interested.

Tampa Bay Lightning

There are a handful of key free agents this summer and one of them is Steven Stamkos. He had a great regular season with 40 goals, 41 assists, 262 shots, and 39 power play points. That he got nearly half (39) his points (81) with the man advantage tells us that he struggled to generate at 5-on-5 during the regular season, and his 1.82 points/60 minutes at 5-on-5 was his lowest rate since the 2015-16 season.

In the playoffs, the Lightning's forwards scored six goals at 5-on-5 and Stamkos was the only forward with more than one (he had two). He tied Nikita Kucherov for points at 5-on-5 with three, and he played less than half his time at that strength with the MVP candidate. In fact, Stamkos finished tied for the team lead with chance assists (4) and led them in total chance contributions per 60 minutes:

Just how much Stamkos can offer at this stage of his career is a fair question as he turned 34 years old in February and has a long history of serious injuries. Regardless, he showed well enough in the playoffs and can, at the least, be a big help on the power play. We will revisit this when he signs wherever he signs in free agency, but colour me intrigued if he has a prime landing spot.

Boston Bruins

The Bruins finished their postseason run with fewer than two goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Funny enough, that's still in the top half of playoff teams as power play prowess has been much more important for team success this postseason.

David Pastrnak led the Bruins by rush contributions (shot and assists off the rush) per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and that's no surprise. In second place was Pavel Zacha, and he spent two-thirds of his 5-on-5 time next to Pastrnak. In third place, though, was not someone I expected to see:

Mason Lohrei finished his postseason run with four points at 5-on-5, giving him a points/60 rate higher than names like Miro Heiskanen, Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox, and Charlie McAvoy. That is after a regular season where he finished inside the 66th percentile or a borderline top-pair rate. Considering how much the Boston power play struggled at times this season, it is no guarantee that McAvoy will keep earning top power play minutes. There may be some good value on Lohrei as a depth pick when fantasy drafts roll around.

Carolina Hurricanes

Andrei Svechnikov had 11 points in 11 postseason games. He had zero goals at 5-on-5 in 11 games, but he not only led the team by chance assists per 60 minutes, but also overall chance contributions as well as rush contributions per 60 minutes:

Over his last two regular seasons, Svechnikov has 42 goals in 123 games, or about 28 goals every 82 games. For a player that averaged 26 goals every 82 games across his first four seasons, there hasn't been much improvement in this regard. Skating a four-year low 16:59 per game isn't ideal, and like Barzal earlier, it's fair to wonder if Svech will reach his upside in Carolina. Perhaps if Jake Guentzel signs elsewhere, then it'll be Svechnikov skating 19-20 minutes a game, but we haven't seen that level of usage from him yet. It would make a huge difference in his outlook, and the playoff performance lends some credibility that his game was rebounding. He might be another player who is a good value when fantasy drafts roll around.

New York Rangers

Any guesses as to which Rangers forward created the most off the rush in the playoffs? It would take a few guesses to get to the player at the top of the 5-on-5 rush contribution leaderboard:

In the 16 games he played, Roslovic managed 1.79 assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which led the Rangers by a wide margin. A lot of those were secondary assists, so buyer beware here, but he played well down the stretch of the regular season after the trade from Columbus. He is a free agent this summer, so let's see where he lands. He is definitely a player that can help elevate the offence of whichever line he lands on.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 21 - 19:11 WSH vs COL
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Nov 21 - 19:11 OTT vs VGK
Nov 21 - 19:11 DET vs NYI
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Nov 21 - 19:11 N.J vs CAR
Nov 21 - 20:11 STL vs S.J
Nov 21 - 20:11 CHI vs FLA
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Nov 21 - 21:11 EDM vs MIN

Starting Goalies

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JASON ROBERTSON DAL
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL
DECLAN CHISHOLM MIN
JAKE WALMAN S.J
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SEBASTIAN COSSA DET
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
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19.8 CHANDLER STEPHENSON DANIEL SPRONG JADEN SCHWARTZ
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16.1 EELI TOLVANEN YANNI GOURDE OLIVER BJORKSTRAND

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