Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day's Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

As is now becoming tradition, I'll start the column with a nod to the "Who am I?" thread in the Forums where someone thinks of a real-life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going. For your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" for this month. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.

CLUE #1 – I'm a retired forward born in Canada

CLUE #2 – Despite being Canadian, I opted to play four years of US college hockey, where my scoring rate rose each season

CLUE #3 – Although I had much success at the college level, I was undrafted, but still made my NHL debut the season after I finished college

CLUE #4 – I was up and down between the NHL and AHL, but finally in the NHL to stay at age 25

CLUE #5 – After never even averaging a point per every other game in the NHL, I exploded for better than point per game scoring at age 28, and nearly hit the point per game mark the following season, plus was a key contributor to my team winning the Stanley Cup

CLUE #6 – But less than two seasons later, I was traded to my second and final NHL team

CLUE #7 – I nearly hit the point per game mark twice more, but battled concussions which ultimately led me to retire at age 35 having played fewer than 700 career NHL games

CLUE #8 – In my only NHL all-star game appearance, I won the fastest skater contest, and that was in the same season as my team won the Stanley Cup

CLUE #9 – I was a Hobey Baker award finalist my senior year in college

CLUE #10 – My first team was Anaheim and my second was St. Louis

Hopefully you got it. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who it is. Now onto the regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming.

Topic #1 – In a 16 team league with skater categories of G, A, SOG, STP, HIT, BLK, a team has been offered Connor Bedard for Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Josh Norris.  The rest of their roster is Elias Pettersson, Nick Schmaltz, Filip Chytil, Barrett Hayton, Jack McBain, Mikhail Sergachev, Bowen Byram, Kevin Korchinski, Aaron Ekblad, Gustav Forsling.  Should they accept the trade?

Let me say first that hype not just for Bedard but most highly touted prospects has gone into overdrive versus how it was even as recently as when Connor McDavid entered the league.  The nice part about this hype, however, is it likely will enable someone who does trade Bedard to get a ransom in return, as they can pit GMs in their league against each other and make them one up each other in terms of their offers.  The question, of course, is whether an offer is worthwhile enough to prompt one to pull the trigger and send Bedard to another team.

In the end, I think it depends as much on a team's circumstances as the package that's being offered in return.  For this particular team, they have no players over 30 and several who are quite young and might be impactful.  As such, I don't see a high likelihood of them contending in the near term, making Bedard have arguably even more lure than normal. 

Also, whereas normally I'd be concerned about missing the potential to stack points from Boldy and Kaprizov, for whatever reason the Wild have kept those two largely apart at ES.  Perhaps this was in an effort to spread around the offense while the team was in "cap hell", from which they will escape next summer.  As I noted in a recent Goldipucks, I see Kaprizov as more alike David Pastrnak as not, and we've seen that Pasta can thrive even without a top center.  Thus, Minnesota might spend its newfound money on defensemen and/or a goalie, without upgrading at forward much if at all.  Given all of these factors, I'd be more inclined to trade Kaprizov and Boldy than, say, Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider or Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, namely pairs who are seemingly joined at the hip at ES and, in turn, provide great stacking opportunity.

Speaking of Boldy, his first three seasons in the NHL defy comparison, as no other winger dating back to 2000-01 averaged between 0.75 and 1.0 points per game and 2.3 and 3.2 SOG per game in each of his first three seasons by age 22.  Those who did so twice were Kyle Connor, Brock Boeser, Andrei Svechnikov, Patrick Laine, Nikita Kucherov, Jordan Eberle, Jamie Benn, Bobby Ryan, Patrick Kane, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Simon Gagne.  The big names likely are there due to their teams not being great, so I'm inclined to liken Boldy to Connor, Svech, Benn, or Eberle, with the range of their productions being possible. Overall, good to very good, but not superb.

As for Norris, he's a major time question mark at this point.  Yes, if he does somehow find a way to get back to full health he'll likely have a spot in the top six and on PP1 given his contract, but that is becoming a bigger – rather than smaller – if over time. I'm not hesitant to include him as part of a deal to get Bedard.

Again, I want to underscore that trading for Bedard can be the "wrong" decision on paper in some situations. But here it seems not only appropriate but a big win given the trajectory of this team, plus Kaprizov and Boldy perhaps not providing beneficial stacking opportunities.

Topic #2 – Is the real Jason Robertson the nearly 110 point player we saw in 2022-23, or the roughly point per gamer from this season, or somewhere in between>

That is the magic question on many a poolie's mind after JRob thrived in 2022-23 only to come back to earth with a crashing thud in 2023-24.  The first step is to see how he'd have fared this season if things were more like they were in 2022-23.

Robertson had a nearly identical SH% in both campaigns, but his SOG rate was down by a full SOG this season versus last. Right there that's ten fewer goals this season than had he taken the same number of SOG but shot at the same slightly lower rate this season versus last. Also, his PPPt total went from 41 to 28. Yes, he saw less PP time; however, he still should have scored six more PPPts if his PPPt per minute of PP time rate was the same as it was in 2022-23. There we have 16 more points Robertson "should've" tallied if 2022-23 was the "real" Robertson, and that would've put his season total for 2023-24 at 96 instead of 82. While that is a very healthy total, it's still a drop from 2022-23, suggesting he overachieved in 2022-23. But did he?

His team SH% at 5×5 was nearly identical in 2023-24 to what it was in 2022-23.  His IPPs for this most recent season were down a bit, but more importantly they were not unsustainably high in 2022-23. His secondary assist rate in 2022-23 was a good bit lower than 2023-24.  His OZ% was higher in 2022-23 than this season, but only by a tad.

Digging deeper, we see that of the 60 instances of a forward tallying 41+ PPPts in a season dating back to 2000-01, Robertson's PPTOI was the third lowest.  Of the 117 instances of a forward having 300+ SOG also dating back to 2000-01, Robertson's TOI per game was the 17th lowest; and of the 16 who had less TOI per game, all but four had 72 or fewer points, with the highest point total being 94 by Zach Parise, who, as we know, never went on to duplicate the success he enjoyed in that season, which, perhaps coincidentally, also occurred when he was 23 years old like Robertson was in 2022-23.

Thus, although Robertson's metrics from 2022-23 don't scream unsustainable, once we look at the reality of what other players have done, his 2022-23 numbers do not look like they can be replicated without, at minimum, Robertson getting more TOI per game. Given the success of the Stars this season despite Robertson's TOI, both overall and on the PP, taking a hit, I would not look for them to fix what isn't broken.  As such, I'd say 2022-23 Robertson is not something we should expect to recur any time soon. Inasmuch as the 96 rate I noted above was based on his 2022-23 SOG and PPPt rates, that number is even suspect.  As such, I'd say Robertson should be looked upon as an 80- to 90-point player, with the exact output depending on his SOG rate and the extent to which he plays on the PP, and, of course, his TOI.

Topic #3 – In a standard points league with line-ups of 12F, 6D, 2G, which side of a Marco Rossi for Kevin Korchinski trade is better?

This is difficult, in that there is more opportunity for a forward to be "fantasy worthy" versus a defenseman, since most teams have one or perhaps two, but almost never three, rearguards who produce offense from the blueline, whereas their top-six includes six forwards, some or all of whom can have fantasy value.

Yet what I keep coming back to is the fact that Rossi is an undersized center, and it is a rarity for someone to succeed under those circumstances, with the last two who had any semblance of fantasy significance being Derek Roy and Daniel Briere a while ago.  Rossi could be switched to wing; but it seems like that's not in the cards, at least based on what we've seen thus far.

Also, Rossi got a chance to skate alongside Kirill Kaprizov this season; but by the second half it was Joel Eriksson Ek who was centering Kaprizov most often. Considering the pronounced difference in Kaprizvo's output in the first half (35 points in 36 games) versus the second (61 points in 39 games), that does not bode well for Rossi getting a second crack at being top line center for the Wild, which is an issue since in the second half Rossi was not even a point per every other game player. Although Rossi is certainly not old, and, as an undersized player, might need until 400 or so game to truly break out, he'll already be 23 soon. With only 103 games under his belt, that 400 game mark wouldn't be until four more seasons at the very earliest.  That is a long time to wait for success, which may or may not even come.

Korchinski was thrust into what likely was a more prominent role than might have been envisioned, but that was seemingly as much to do with his readiness as the Hawks needing him as part of their team.  On a positive note, Korchinski had a 77.9% IPP on the PP, showing his offensive chops. At 5×5, the team shot only 5.9% with him on the ice.  That is a very bad number, and, if not improved upon, might pigeonhole him as a one-dimensional d-man, which has worked for the likes of Shanye Ghostisbehere, but not for the likes of Calen Addison.

All things considered, I'm taking the Korchinski side.  Rossi has as many if not more question marks, while Korchinski is a risk/reward option, but at least presents a viable reward, whereas Rossi seemingly doesn't, or, if he does, perhaps not for quite a while.

Topic #4 – In a 12 Team, H2H, Keep 6 league with rosters of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1Util, 2G, 5BN, 2IR, 1IR+, 1NA and categories of G, A, Pts, PPP, FW, SOG, Hits, Blocks, W, Saves, SV%, GAA, Games Started, which six should be kept among the following?  The poster is leaning toward Robertson, Meier, Bouchard, Makar, Fox, and Oettinger.

C: Vincent Trocheck, Bo Horvat

C/LW – Frank Vatrano

C/RW – Claude Giroux, Joe Pavelski, Martin Necas

LW/RW – Andrei Svechnikov, Timo Meier, Alexis Lafreniere
LW: Jason Robertson
RW: None

D: Evan Bouchard, Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Josh Morrissey, Seth Jones
G: Jake Oettinger, Alexandar Georgiev, Ilya Samsonov
NA: Yaroslav Askarov

Right away it's clear that d-men are important, since at worst they'll comprise four of 11 skaters in one's active line-up. I can get behind keeping all three of Makar, Bouchard and Fox.  That being said, of the three Fox might be the one who has reached a point where his name value has eclipsed his actual value.  Also, with this team having an embarrassment of riches at D, Fox could be expendable, especially since Morrissey, who did see his numbers drop but showed he is the real deal, is not that big of a step down. Either trade Fox or, if he's kept, attempt to move Morrissey, as my guess is there'd be no shortage of interest for either one.

One interesting name not among those listed for consideration is Trocheck.  Yes, he's never put together two top tier seasons in a row and Artemi Panarin could leave after next season, but he is a stat stuffer.  His major drawback is being center only; however, that is less of a concern since there seems to be so much multi-positional eligibility.  Horvat would get some consideration if he wasn't center only as well; but since he is, he's not a keep over Trocheck.

I agree with not putting Svech as one of the keeper contenders.  He's doing fine, but simply not making enough strides.  If he's not kept, he should be traded, since he still is young enough to be highly regarded in a multi-cat league.

Meier came around quite well in Q4, more than enough to make him indeed worth considering as a keeper given his multi-cat prowess. As for Robertson, as noted above he's unlikely to rise back to his 2022-23 levels, but he also is now perhaps seen by many as a "one hit wonder," in turn hurting his trade value.

Another key question is whether to keep a goalie. If the team's skater options were worse, it'd be a no brainer to keep Oettinger; but if they do retain him they'd be costing themselves a key skater spot.  Still, with these stats, Oettinger seems like a lock to be a top three goalie, and that can make a huge difference in a 2G league.

What I'd do is put Trocheck, Fox, Robertson, Svechnikov, and Meier out there for trade and see what offers are received.  In a perfect world, the team could get an elite scoring forward, in which case I'd likely then keep Oettinger, Makar, Bouchard, that forward, Fox or Morrissey, plus either Meier or Trocheck.  There is the chance though, that other GMs sniff out that the team is too stocked, and figures why trade for something that they can get via the draft.  Still, I think in a 12-team league, and with the caliber of these players, there will indeed be good offers.

Topic #5 – With rumors that Nikolaj Ehlers might be moved, what is the sense of how well he could do on a new team?

It's pretty amazing to look back at Ehlers' stats and see that in no season – not a single one – did he take the ice for more than 50% of his team's man advantage minutes.  Beyond that, he had a season of 18:04 TOI and another of 17:29; but other those, his third best overall TOI was 16:06, and that came when he was a rookie.

The question though is why has he not been given better deployment?  His production was quite good most seasons, yet that failed to earn him more ice time.  And even when there were injuries or departures, he still remained mired in the middle six and on PP2.  He's now 28, and should be in his prime; if he does go to another team, could he take things to another level not previously seen?

I'd say the answer is…..more likely than not; but huge gains are unlikely.  One reason to be optimistic is Ehlers' high SOG rate given his TOI.  In each of the most recent five seasons, he finished no worse than 25th among forwards who played 40+ games in SOG/60, twice landing in the top ten.  That is no easy task.  Despite this, his SH% was in double digits all but once, so it's not like he was just shooting willy-nilly.  If he was put into a position to succeed with a pass first center and on a top line, he could be a finisher, with higher goal and point totals.

And although considered by many to be an outmoded stat, Ehlers was double digits plus in five of the past seven seasons.  In fact, of 18 forwards who were collectively more plus than Ehlers dating back to 2017-18, more than half collectively averaged a point per game, and just three had a lower points-per-game rate than Ehlers, suggesting again he should be capable of more.

As far as other metrics, Ehlers' IPPs have been off the charts.  Yes, there is the caveat that they came when not playing with the best of the best; however, this shows he has a nose for scoring.  His 5×5 team SH% rates though have been not great, with his 10.1% this season marking the first time he's been in double digits since 2017-18.  To some degree that can be "blamed" on him not playing with top tier talent as well though, plus he still managed to put up solid scoring rates despite this not being a strong point.  Although his secondary assist rates have bounced around somewhat, more often than not they've been low, which is better to see than not.

On paper, Ehlers should have it in him to be a point per game or better player on a consistent basis if moved to a new team that will give him better deployment both at ES and on the PP.  Still though, there is at least some back of the mind concern that he might not immediately thrive, sort of like what happened to Timo Meier upon arrival in New Jersey. As I noted in a previous answer, Meier figured it out after about a year of getting acclimated, so that is some reassurance for those holding and hoping for Ehlers.

Topic #6 – Where does Logan Stankoven go from here?  Will Joe Pavelski's retirement pave the way for his near term success?  What is his future potential?

On the one hand, Stankoven's entire body of NHL work to date has consisted of just 24 regular season games and only 19 playoff contests.  Yet he made those games count, and, in doing so, seemingly positioned himself for future success.

First and foremost, Stankoven' natural position is the same as Pavelski's, so Stankoven, who had already been directly installed into the top six, now likely has a cemented spot on one of the two top lines for Dallas.  But he might not slot onto Pavelski's normal spot with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz, as Stankoven is not only shorter, but plays a less physical game and, at least as of now, is not as high a volume a shooter as Pavelski was.  Still, if he doesn't end up on the top line, he should be ticketed for the second line, and for the Stars that is not as much of a consolation prize as it would be on nearly all other teams.  That's because the Stars have achieved sustained success, much like Carolina, by not playing its top line into the ground.  That is why the likes of Tyler Seguin, Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston and Mason Marchment all fared well in 2023-24 even though they were predominantly not on the top line or PP1.

That does bring up what will become of Paveski's PP1 spot, and if Stankoven has a shot at being in the mix.  I'd say unlikely, at least for now.  He'd have to grab that brass ring over all those other players, except perhaps Duchene, who's a UFA.  And with the retirement of Pavelski and probable exodus of Duchene, the Stars likely can afford to sign a top six caliber player.  So while that most likely won't negatively impact Stankoven at ES, it will make near term his path to PP1 more unrealistic.  But there too Dallas doesn't lean as much on its top unit, plus if Stankoven is relegated to PP2 there will be talent alongside him more so than on most other teams.

As for Stankoven's metrics, seeing him above 2.0 SOG per game despite barely averaging 14:00 TOI per game is a good sign.  Yes, that rate dropped in the playoffs despite him logging roughly two more minutes per game; but the team continuing to turn to him is very positive, as is the fact he was not overwhelmed, posting eight points in 19 games.

His overall IPP was not great; but that was likely a function of him playing alongside others with so much more NHL experience.  And his 66.7% IPP on the PP shows that when he lines up with players a notch below and in favorable situations, he can find a way to score.  Also great was the 10.9% team SH% at 5×5 when he was on the ice.  That put him squarely in the top ten among all rookies, and is a very good sign since although he was not factoring in the scoring a lot just yet, his presence was a net positive to scoring overall.

I think next season Stankoven rises to 15:00+ TOI per game, and a regular PP2 shift.  And before you say that doesn't sound so good, consider that it led to Mason Marchment scoring at a 54-point pace in 2022-23, and he averaged fewer SOG per game than Stankoven. Stankoven is a safe bet for 50+, with a better chance at 55+ than less than 45.  I do worry though that he may not get a spot on PP1 for quite a while, as the likely next player to go from the top unit is Jamie Benn, and his size is crucial given the others on the top unit.  So Stankoven might have to settle for PP2 time for an indefinite period.  But as noted, Dallas is a strong and deep team and does not play its lines, both on the PP and at ES, into the ground, ensuring he will be able to succeed, albeit likely not go nuts, at least not for a while.

Looking further ahead, Carolina has kept its similar winning formula for a while.  In doing so, it allowed more players to produce well, but fewer to put up huge offensive numbers.  As such, and given that Stankoven is short, and, in turn, might need until game 400 to truly hit his stride, he might stay under the 70-point mark for several more seasons.  But if ultimately put on the top line and PP1, plus given ice time to shine, I could see him hitting 90+ points more than once during his career.

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ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS…………..Andy McDonald!

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Questions for Mailbag column needed The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.