I have spent the offseason reviewing the fantasy seasons of non-playoff teams. This covered the San Jose Sharks, the Chicago Blackhawks, the Anaheim Ducks, the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Montreal Canadiens, the Arizona Coyotes (now in Utah), the Ottawa Senators, the Seattle Kraken, the Calgary Flames, the New Jersey Devils, the Buffalo Sabres, the Philadelphia Flyers, the Minnesota Wild, the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Detroit Red Wings, and the St. Louis Blues.

** Be sure to grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!**

In my Ramblings on Tuesday, we went over the playoff performance of one player from each eliminated Eastern Conference team. Today will be the same but for the Western Conference.

Data from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, and Frozen Tools. Tracking data from AllThreeZones. Not every playoff game has been tracked yet, FYI.

Nashville Predators

Last week I wrote a bit about Luke Evangelista and the work that he and Tommy Novak did together offensively in 2023-24. The crux was that there was enough good to potentially support a breakout from Evangelista in 2024-25.

The tracking data has the same player leading the Nashville roster in scoring chance assists (helpers on teammate chances) per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, total chance contributions (assists plus individual chances) per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and rush contributions (assists and shots off the rush) per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. We wouldn't have brought up Evangelista if the answer weren't obvious:

It wasn't a productive postseason for Evangelista as he had just one goal (his only point) in six games, but he finished third on the team in shot attempts per 60 minutes and fourth by high-danger shots per 60 minutes. He also skated under 13:30 per game while he and Novak broke even by expected goal share (and were nearly 53% by shot attempt share) in their time together. No, there wasn't a lot of production, but Vancouver was a very good defensive team, and the young Nashville forwards were still able to create some offence besides that. A good sign as the team looks ahead to next season.

Los Angeles Kings

Though he failed to get in the goal column, Quinton Byfield had four assists in his five playoff games and all of them came at 5-on-5. In fact, the Kings scored 12 goals at 5-on-5 in their five games, meaning that Byfield assisted on one-third of the team's 5-on-5 goals, and three of those helpers were primary assists. Those three primary assists in five games are as many as Aleksander Barkov has in his 19 games played thus far, for a point of reference.

Kevin Fiala led the Kings by contributions off the rush at 5-on-5, but it was Byfield that finished second, and it was pretty close between them:

The big issue for Byfield was creating dangerous shots for himself, not necessarily his teammates. That is something that has been an issue for him thus far in his career, as his high-danger shot attempt rate over the last three years is in the 68^th percentile of forwards which is fine, but far from high-end. Until he creates more dangerous chances – and likely just a larger volume of shots overall – he won't take a huge leap in fantasy value. All the same, he's certainly grown by leaps and bounds over those three seasons and looks like he'll be an impact player in the league for years to come.

Winnipeg Jets

It is hard to say that many Jets performed well in a series where the Colorado Avalanche turned Winnipeg into the San Jose Sharks game in and game out, by we do have to shout out Gabriel Vilardi. Like Byfield, he didn't get into the goal column but had four assists in five games with three of those assists coming at 5-on-5 (and they were all primary assists). He didn't lead the team by scoring chance assist rate (that actually went to… *shuffles notes*… Mason Appleton?) but he did lead the team by overall scoring chance contributions:

The term 'underrated' gets thrown around far too often but Vilardi certainly fits that bill. He finished second on the team by points/60 at 5-on-5 in the playoffs despite not scoring a goal and had a higher primary points rate (goals and first assists) in the regular season (1.82) than both Mark Scheifele (1.66) and Kyle Connor (1.56). Rick Bowness coached the team well defensively, but they clearly have another gear they can hit offensively, especially on the power play. That could make Vilardi a very appealing value draft pick in fantasy drafts this September.

Vegas Golden Knights

As a team, Vegas managed 72 shot attempts and 122 shot assists off the rush at 5-on-5 in their series against Dallas. Of those 194 shots and assists, Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault accounted for 50 of them, or over one-quarter of the team's entire output. That includes both forwards and defencemen, too. Among all the players to skate all seven games, it was those two out in front by rush contributions and then everyone else:

I bring this up because of Marchessault's pending free agency. He may return, or he may not, but it's worth noting how well they seemed to mesh together over the last couple of seasons. The team has been stubborn about leaving Mark Stone next to Chandler Stephenson, and if Marchessault is gone, there is no ready internal replacement. Eichel can elevate just about anyone they put next to him, but it'll be hard to be as excited about his upside if the team moves on from a guy that has 100 goals over the last three regular seasons.

Colorado Avalanche

On the topic of pending free agents, this one of the restricted variety, there was a Colorado forward that had a higher scoring chance assist rate and overall chance contribution rate than Mikko Rantanen, and it wasn't Nathan MacKinnon:

Like Vilardi and Eichel, Casey Mittelstadt is a player that can improve the offensive opportunities for his line mates. That makes him an ideal second-line centre to have behind MacKinnon because then they don't need to stick a winger on MacKinnon's line to have them succeed offensively.

It will also be interesting to see what Mittelstadt signs for. He hasn't always been used on his team's top PP unit whether in Buffalo or Colorado. For that reason, he's yet to post a 20-goal or 60-point season in his career despite exceeding names like Kyle Connor, John Tavares, and Mathew Barzal by points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over the last three seasons. Where contracts are often handed out by comparable players, his overall rate production is closer to Andre Burakovsky or Martin Necas than it is to any of those higher-paid forwards. Regardless, with Colorado's injury/suspension issues, a return to the Avalanche probably sees Mittelstadt on the top PP unit next season, and that's a huge boon to his fantasy value.

Vancouver Canucks

In each of the last three regular seasons, JT Miller has at least 32 goals, at least 50 assists, at least 190 shots, and at least 170 hits in each of them. He has cracked the 65-assist plateau twice, the 200-shot mark twice, and the 200-hit mark twice as well. He has truly been one of the more consistent high-end banger league fantasy options, which is why it shouldn't be such a surprise that he led the Canucks by scoring chance assist rate at 5-on-5 in the playoffs by a wide, wide margin, and his rate exceeded that of the next two highest Canucks forwards combined:

Miller created so much for his line mates that Pius Suter had by far the highest rate of high-danger shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and that tells us what we need to know about how good Miller was. He has now made two playoff runs with Vancouver and has 9 goals and 21 assists in those 30 combined playoff games. He stepped up when the team needed him, and he should be able to keep that train rolling next season as he remains a coveted multi-cat fantasy asset.

Dallas Stars

It was sad to see Dallas get bounced – I still think they were the best team in the NHL this season – but the good news is that their younger players were also most of their top players this postseason and that includes Thomas Harley. Among the 44 defencemen with at least 100 tracked minutes, Harley finished sixth by chance assist rate at 5-on-5, and compared to names like Adam Fox and Charlie McAvoy (and in a much bigger sample):

Harley wasn't terribly productive in the postseason with just four points (all assists) in 19 games, but he keeps doing all the things we want to see from a burgeoning offensive defenceman. He now has one full season with two deep playoff runs under his belt and doesn't turn 23 years old until August. He's just starting to scratch the surface of his upside, though there is still a Miro Heiskanen-sized block to Harley getting consistent top PP minutes, which is all-important for the fantasy value of any skater.