I have spent the offseason reviewing the fantasy seasons of non-playoff teams. This covered the San Jose Sharks, the Chicago Blackhawks, the Anaheim Ducks, the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Montreal Canadiens, the Arizona Coyotes (now in Utah), the Ottawa Senators, the Seattle Kraken, the Calgary Flames, the New Jersey Devils, the Buffalo Sabres, the Philadelphia Flyers, the Minnesota Wild, the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Detroit Red Wings, and the St. Louis Blues.

** Be sure to grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!**

Florida has taken a 3-0 chokehold on the Stanley Cup Final thanks to a 4-3 win in Edmonton. This has put them on the brink of the franchise's first championship in their team's history, and tremendous detail to forechecking and defensive zone coverage is a big reason why.

The other reason is Sergei Bobrovsky. He did let in three goals, but through two periods he had stopped 28 of 29 shots and that stonewalling in goal allowed the Panthers to find their opportunities to capitalize on Oiler mistakes, which is exactly what they did. Bobrovsky finished the game stopping 32 of 35 shots for the win.

Aleksander Barkov, Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart, and Vladimir Tarasenko all scored for the Panthers. Reinhart and Barkov each added an assist, too, and that pushed Barkov to 21 points in 20 games in the postseason. It seems a foregone conclusion that Bobrovsky is going to win the Conn Smythe – pending a miracle comeback from Edmonton – but this is the playoff run that will push Barkov near the top of the pile in terms of recognition across the league.

Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, and Philip Broberg had the goals for Edmonton. The Oilers are now 0-for-10 on the power play in the series. On the long list of things they have not done well in the Final, capitalizing on their chances is up there.

Game 4 is Saturday night back in Edmonton.

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At this point, I have done reviews of the regular season playoff performances from the non-playoff teams as well as the playoff performances from teams that were eliminated. Having gone through 30 of the 32 teams, and this being the end of the week, I want to summarize some things that I've written over the last two months. Here are some general thoughts.

Data from Natural Stat Trick and Frozen Tools with tracking work from AllThreeZones. Cap information from CapFriendly (for now).

It's Time for Buffalo to Trade Prospect Talent for Realized Talent

Considering how close Buffalo came to the postseason in 2023, it's easy to see this past season as a failure for the Sabres. However, they got a big step forward from JJ Peterka, Owen Power built off a good rookie season, Zach Benson had a successful true freshman season (which is rare for non-elite draft picks), Jack Quinn was productive when he was healthy, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen at least showed the possibility of being part of a good goaltending tandem. With a return to a more offensive-minded approach, the top line of Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch should be just fine, too.

It seems like it's time to turn the remaining prospects into more high-end NHL talent. With Jiri Kulich, Isak Rosén, Noah Östlund, and Matthew Savoie, among others, there are more than enough prospects, draft picks, and cap space to make a big swing in the trade department. There were a few reasons why the team didn't reach the postseason in 2023-24, which is another reason why having more proven talent up front can help. It can insulate against someone – say, Dylan Cozens – having a down year. They don't need to necessarily replace guys like Victor Olofsson, Kyle Okposo, and Victor Olofsson with cheap UFA signings. Buffalo has the ability to make a true impact on their roster and if they want to make a run while they still have guys like Alex Tuch and Bowen Byram on cheap contracts, improving the actual roster should be a priority.

This is a Big Offseason for Utah

The Utah… Yeti? Mammoth? Soakers? have nearly half their cap space wide open. Yes, they have a few key signings to make like Barrett Hayton, Sean Durzi, JJ Moser, and Juuso Välimäki, while generally filling out the rest of their blue line, but even extending all those names while signing both a mid-priced and cheap defenceman in free agency could leave them with nearly $20M in cap space. They also have 10 (!) second-round picks in the next three drafts and seven third-round picks. Utah has more than enough in the cupboard to go make an impact trade to really fill out the roster. In truth, they probably need to go get a top-pair defenceman to help out Durzi, but they can add so much more than that.

This franchise really isn't far off from taking the next step. In 2023-24, they finished 17^th in the league by 5-on-5 goal share, higher than teams like Seattle, Minnesota, New Jersey, Detroit, and Tampa Bay. They also finished 17^th by power play goal share, higher than teams like Florida, Vegas, and Toronto. But they got crushed on the penalty kill and had half a season of unreliable goaltending. To that goaltending point: the necessary improvements on the blue line are obvious. When Michael Kesselring, Matt Dumba, and Josh Brown are fourth, fifth, sixth in games played by a blue liner, the needs become obvious.

With the emergence of both Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley, the team's top-6 forward mix is looking in good shape. They could stand to add another true top-6 forward, and if they do that either via trade or free agency, and then really fill out the blue line, this is a team that could be knocking on the postseason door in 10 months. With all their cap space, draft picks, and solid forward group, on top of being in a new locale with an owner that seemingly wants to spend money on the actual roster and not the long-term injured reserve, this is truly the most interesting team of the offseason. It is an offseason that could set them up for the next five years.

Where Does Tampa Bay Go from Here?

The Lightning won two Stanley Cups with this core, so their mission has been accomplished. However, they now have back-to-back first-round eliminations, have less than $5.5M in cap space with Steven Stamkos as a free agent and multiple roster spots to fill, Victor Hedman turns 34 years old next season with one year left on his current contract, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is coming off a down year that included back surgery. Tampa Bay has no picks in the first two rounds in either the 2024 or 2025 drafts and has a very thin prospect pool. Even if one of their current AHLers becomes a third liner in 2024-25, that doesn't solve the Stamkos problem, they still have a roster spot or two to fill, and just how good this current roster can be is a fair question.

Let's be honest here: there are no easy answers. The top guys all have no-move or at least partial no-trade clauses while two that don't – Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel – are the guys they would want to keep around. Even if they wanted to cap dump someone (like Erik Cernak), they don't even have the draft picks to do it. The only thing they can do now is try not to take on more bad money. This is going to be a multi-year teardown, and then the true rebuild can start. Barring a miracle, Tampa Bay is not going to be a true contender again this decade, and that's a tough pill for any management group to swallow.

Offer Sheet Time in… Vegas?

A cap crunch is likely going to see Jonathan Marchessault sign elsewhere this offseason, and that's going to take some scoring punch out of Vegas's lineup. They have a couple forward spots to fill and less than $1.2M in cap space to do it. They can't even use league-min players, which means some money is going to have to be moved out before they can even fill out their own roster.

That is what makes Pavel Dorofeyev an intriguing name. He has just 67 NHL games, but he has 20 goals in those 67 games while averaging 13:20 per night. In fact, his goal per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over those games is 1.27 with an individual expected goals rate of 1.02. Evolving Hockey has him with very good expected goals impacts, too. In fact, when looking for a similar young player to Dorofeyev in terms of goal/expected goal production at 5-on-5 as well so goal/expected goal impact at even strength, one name came up:

This isn't to say that Dorofeyev is a Wyatt Johnston in the making. Dorofeyev is still just 23 years old, though, and his small samples in the NHL have been very good. With Vegas's limited cap space (yes, I realize their LTIR propensity), they may not be able to match a $2.5M-$3M offer sheet and the compensation for a player in that range is just a second-round pick. Offer sheets rarely happen, but if teams hate Vegas as much as fans do, this seems like a prime situation for one.

My Beloved Montreal Canadiens

To finish things off, it's time to be a homer and talk about the Habs.

There are no concerns about the top line, Kirby Dach will (hopefully) be healthy from now on, Kaiden Guhle has shown the trajectory of a top-4 shutdown defenceman, the excitement for Lane Huston is palpable, and Sam Montembeault has looked every bit the goalie they need for the next five years. This team still needs another genuine top-6 offensive force, but they are finally in a position to go get one.

That doesn't mean go sign Sam Reinhart or Jake Guentzel. However, Martin Necas's name has been bandied about, Casey Mittelstadt is far from a guarantee to re-sign in Colorado, Tampa Bay is looking to shed salary (Hagel is worth asking about, at least), Trevor Zegras's name keeps popping up, and so on. Montreal has two first-round picks in each of the next two drafts, has a few B-tier prospects teams may want to gamble on, and reasonable cap space because there are no big contracts to dish out. The Habs are in a place where they can go big like they did when they acquired Dach, and this is the offseason to do it.