Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

—

1. It’s been nearly a week since news surfaced that CapFriendly is being bought by the Washington Capitals and would go dark in July. PuckPedia seems to now be the place to go for salary cap information, although it’s worth mentioning that each Frozen Tools player profile has salary cap information and term up to 2029-30. 

If PuckPedia eventually goes the way of CapFriendly, it seems likely that someone else will step up and fill the void. Since the NHL reportedly views salary cap information as “confidential,” it doesn’t seem likely that the NHL itself will be providing this information on its website anytime soon. This is yet another example of the NHL being out of touch with its fans, as there is obviously demand for this information, whether it be for salary cap leagues or the masses of amateur capologists who weigh in with comments and opinions on social media.

This development is something that salary cap league participants should be watching with great interest. Without the vital information of salary cap amounts and terms, salary cap leagues could not effectively operate. Again, I’m sure in the end this information will be listed somewhere, even if it’s fragmented or appears in a different format. In the Information Age, it seems impractical and nearly impossible for an entity to be reversing course, so it’s probably not something to worry about.

If you haven’t already, I’d suggest that you read the Capped article this week whether you participate in salary cap leagues or not. (june15)

In the meantime, you can also check out the Frozentools website for all of the fun tools and content over there, and Eric Daoust is always open to suggestions on what could be added to the site as well. Give him a shout if you want to see whether he can replace/replicate something.

2. Over several recent Ramblings on May 25, May 26, and May 31, I wrote about the advantages of using Zero G, citing my own teams. I have become a big believer in the use of Zero G when building a roster, not only in single-season drafts but also in keeper leagues where possible.

In the interest of balanced coverage and healthy debate (which is becoming less common in our increasingly polarized society these days, quite frankly), it’s important to list the potential drawbacks of using a Zero G strategy. In other words, there may still be benefits to drafting goalies early in many leagues.

First, there are going to be risks to drafting any player, not just goalies. Examples of early-round forwards that failed to meet the expectations of their ADP include Tage Thompson, Tim Stutzle, Alex Ovechkin, and Roope Hintz. Jack Hughes could also be thrown into that category, although Hughes missed 20 games due to injury. You’ll need more than your early-round pick to win your fantasy league, but one or two wrong early-round picks could sink your chances of winning your fantasy league.

Simply put, is there any guarantee that the goalie you need is available on the waiver wire? Some leagues are so deep that you can’t wait on goalies. Minimum starts and a significant percentage of goalie categories may force fantasy owners out of the idea of waiting for a goalie, even if they are tempted to try it. (june15)

[Follow the link for more…]

3. The Utah Hockey Club… what do you think? I thought those Coyotes Kachina uniforms were garish with the 20 or so different colors and a lot going on, so I’d actually consider the UHC uniforms to be an improvement. Plus the colors aren’t bad. Call me boring, but whatever. They need a team name ASAP though. (june15)

4. I have spent the offseason reviewing the fantasy seasons of non-playoff teams. This covered the San Jose Sharks, the Chicago Blackhawks, the Anaheim Ducks, the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Montreal Canadiens, the Arizona Coyotes (now in Utah), the Ottawa Senators, the Seattle Kraken, the Calgary Flames, the New Jersey Devils, the Buffalo Sabres, the Philadelphia Flyers, the Minnesota Wild, the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Detroit Red Wings, and the St. Louis Blues. Check them out by clicking on the team names.

5. As mentioned above, I have done reviews of the regular season playoff performances from the non-playoff teams as well as the playoff performances from teams that were eliminated (Eastern Conference here, Western Conference here). Having gone through 30 of the 32 teams, I want to summarize some things that I’ve written over the last two months. Below are some general thoughts.

It’s Time for Buffalo to Trade Prospect Talent for Realized Talent

Considering how close Buffalo came to the postseason in 2023, it’s easy to see this past season as a failure for the Sabres. However, they got a big step forward from JJ Peterka, Owen Power built off a good rookie season, Zach Benson had a successful true freshman season (which is rare for non-elite draft picks), Jack Quinn was productive when he was healthy, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen at least showed the possibility of being part of a good goaltending tandem. With a return to a more offensive-minded approach, the top line of Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch should be just fine, too.

It seems like it’s time to turn the remaining prospects into more high-end NHL talent. With Jiri Kulich, Isak Rosen, Noah Ostlund, and Matthew Savoie, among others, there are more than enough prospects, draft picks, and cap space to make a big swing in the trade department. There were a few reasons why the team didn’t reach the postseason in 2023-24, which is another reason why having more proven talent up front can help. It can insulate against someone – say, Dylan Cozens – having a down year. They don’t need to necessarily replace guys like Victor Olofsson, Kyle Okposo, and Victor Olofsson with cheap UFA signings. Buffalo has the ability to make a true impact on their roster and if they want to make a run while they still have guys like Alex Tuch and Bowen Byram on cheap contracts, improving the actual roster should be a priority. (june14)

6. Where Does Tampa Bay Go from Here?

The Lightning won two Stanley Cups with this core, so their mission has been accomplished. However, they now have back-to-back first-round eliminations, have less than $5.5M in cap space with Steven Stamkos as a free agent and multiple roster spots to fill, Victor Hedman turns 34 years old next season with one year left on his current contract, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is coming off a down year that included back surgery. Tampa Bay has no picks in the first two rounds in either the 2024 or 2025 drafts and has a very thin prospect pool. Even if one of their current AHLers becomes a third liner in 2024-25, that doesn’t solve the Stamkos problem, they still have a roster spot or two to fill, and just how good this current roster can be is a fair question.

Let’s be honest here: there are no easy answers. The top guys all have no-move or at least partial no-trade clauses while two that don’t – Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel – are the guys they would want to keep around. Even if they wanted to cap dump someone (like Erik Cernak), they don’t even have the draft picks to do it. The only thing they can do now is try not to take on more bad money. This is going to be a multi-year teardown, and then the true rebuild can start. Barring a miracle, Tampa Bay is not going to be a true contender again this decade, and that’s a tough pill for any management group to swallow. (june14)

7. My Beloved Montreal Canadiens

To finish things off, it’s time to be a homer and talk about the Habs.

There are no concerns about the top line, Kirby Dach will (hopefully) be healthy from now on, Kaiden Guhle has shown the trajectory of a top-4 shutdown defenseman, the excitement for Lane Huston is palpable, and Sam Montembeault has looked every bit the goalie they need for the next five years. This team still needs another genuine top-6 offensive force, but they are finally in a position to go get one.

That doesn’t mean go sign Sam Reinhart or Jake Guentzel. However, Martin Necas‘s name has been bandied about, Casey Mittelstadt is far from a guarantee to re-sign in Colorado, Tampa Bay is looking to shed salary (Brandon Hagel is worth asking about, at least), Trevor Zegras‘s name keeps popping up, and so on. Montreal has two first-round picks in each of the next two drafts, has a few B-tier prospects teams may want to gamble on, and reasonable cap space because there are no big contracts to dish out. The Habs are in a place where they can go big like they did when they acquired Dach, and this is the offseason to do it. (june14)

[Follow the link for more…]

8. The NHL also confirmed the cap at $88M for next year, with a floor of $65M as well. There are 11 teams currently below the cap floor, and overall a mean of almost $20 million available for NHL teams to spend. With this being the first big rise in many years, and the expectation that the cap will continue to rise (potentially close to $100M by the summer of 2026), there will be a lot of free agents looking to cash in.

The players have been waiting years now for the cap increases to pick back up again, and while the salaries of the star players have continued to rise, a lot of the depth players have been squeezed out. On top of that, with any longer-term contracts being signed now knowing the cap is going up soon, their numbers might be a little higher than expected off the bat knowing that by the end they will be below market value again.

For example, Jake Guentzel might make sense at $8.5 or $9 million now, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see something closer to $10 million for him, because by the time the Cap goes up over $10 million in the next three seasons, then that deal looks a lot more palatable, and Guentzel wants a fair share of that pie too.

All that to say, in cap leagues, locking up the guys that have signed long-term deals in the last couple years like Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Roope Hintz, may be the key to success a few years from now. (june12)

9. The DobberHockey Prospects Report is available for download! Get yours at the Dobber Sports Store.

It’s a must-read if you have prospects on your keeper team, or just want to get a head start on who’s coming. 

10. In case you missed it, the Rangers have signed Kaapo Kakko to a “prove it” one-year, $2.4 million contract. Kakko will still be an RFA (with arbitration rights) after this contract. The former second overall pick (2019) was held to just 19 points – 13 of which were goals – in 61 games in 2023-24. Part of that lack of production is deployment on a deep Rangers squad, but it is worth mentioning that Kakko’s most frequent linemates last season were Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. So Kakko’s scoring issues go well beyond lack of opportunity.

One major question for the Rangers these past few seasons was when Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere would break out. Lafreniere took a big step forward in 2023-24, and now we’re waiting to see if Kakko can do the same. Kakko was drafted a year before Lafreniere, so at this point Kakko would have a lower upside than Lafreniere. It’s worth mentioning that Kakko’s 5-on-5 scoring rate is 1.73 PTS/60, so at age 23 it’s probably still too early to write him off. (june15)

11. Also, the Hurricanes have signed Jalen Chatfield to a three-year contract worth $3 million per season. Chatfield could see an increase in ice time if the cost-conscious Canes do not re-sign UFAs Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei or find adequate replacements. Like Pesce, Chatfield is a right-handed shot. Chatfield has been a reliable defenseman in the Carolina system, although it remains to be seen whether he can handle tougher competition. If he can, this will be an ideal contract for the Canes. (june15)

12. I acquired Vince Dunn in one of my fantasy leagues recently, in a deal with Filip Gustavsson as the main piece going the other way. I like Gus, I think he will do well, I just don’t like goalies and would prefer to spend on players and mine the waiver wire for goalies.

Back to Dunn though, one thing that I noticed is that he was extremely consistent for points scoring the last two years, with a 65-point pace each year. That is especially noteworthy considering a point that Brennan brought up in Monday’s Ramblings, where Seattle saw one of the largest drop offs in scoring across the league year over year. That suggests first, that there is room for the team to rebound, and two, that Dunn’s floor is exceptionally high. If you need some more assurances on Dunn’s floor and upside, then we have Rick Roos who already went through this back in January (before Dunn was unfortunately injured for large chunks of the rest of the campaign.

In addition to the points for Dunn, there was one really interesting change from 2022-23 to 2023-24, at that was his hits numbers. We’ll go with the per/game rate on account of him missing 23 games, and that difference is staggering. After six straight seasons of rising hit/game rates, culminating at 1.42 hits per game in 2022-23, Dunn suddenly dropped to 0.64 per game. The quick math is that the rate is worse than half, despite similar deployment, and Dunn’s average ice time on the season is still above 23 minutes. (june12)

13. At the risk of outlining most of my plans for my league mates who may draft around me, I’ll share my top-15 list for the NHL draft. That’s about as far as I feel partially confident that I’m getting the player I want, and there’s some reasoning to back it up from what I can tell through the many scouting resources I digest throughout the season.

To note, I favour forwards over defensemen due to the trajectories and timelines. This is a fantasy hockey league ranking, so players like Anton Silayev and Stian Stolberg just don’t have enough to entice me over other options available.

Macklin Celebrini – The sure thing, and the undisputed number one, at worst he’s Nico Hischier, with a chance at Jack Hughes upside.

Ivan Demidov – Perhaps the best offensive ceiling in the draft, though some are concerned with the Russian factor and others are concerned with the skating. Played in a much easier league this year, but did as much as you can ask of him there.

Cayden Lindstrom – The size and skill combo is tantalizing, and it sounds like the injury concerns have been mostly quashed. He’ll be an impact NHLer sooner rather than later.

Berkly Catton – High end skill, and the concerns about size seem to be overblown. Some aren’t as high on him, but the scouts I like/trust, are the ones pumping his tires.

Tij Iginla – Doesn’t have quite the same “skills” as Catton, but the potential appears to be just about as high, and in a sturdier body. (june12)

14. Zayne Parekh – Historic offensive season, and both an NHL level shot and ability to get it off in creative ways. The highest upside defenseman.

Zeev Buium – Like Parekh, Buium uses skating, skills and smarts rather than size, and both do it effectively. The modern defensemen are trending more and more towards this style.

Cole Eiserman – He scores goals, and all we hope as fantasy managers is that he lands somewhere where he can do that and be taught the rest. Could shift up or down the rankings depending on where he goes.

Beckett Sennecke – The second-half production coupled with the size and his handle on the puck show that Sennecke is just getting started with what he can become.

Artyom Levshunov – Levshunov has a ton of tools and has a very good shot at being the top Dman in the class. It does feel like his offensive upside isn’t quite as high as Buium or Parekh though, at least to this non-scout. (june12)

15. Konsta Helenius – While some are scared of the Russians, I am currently shying away from the top-end Finns, after we have seen many of them disappoint in the last few years. Still, Helenius does have a lot of pro-ready traits and deserves to be in the conversation around pick 10.

Trevor Connelly – There are off-ice issues and character concerns, and those should be taken into account. Every scout seems to agree though that his scoring upside and vision with the puck is excellent.

Liam Greentree – He isn’t praised as much as those above him for standout skills, but he has a whole package that helped him finish near the top of the OHL scoring leaderboard despite not having a teammate anywhere close to him.

Sam Dickinson – Dickinson seems more like he may end up being a top-pairing defenseman who runs your second power play unit rather than the top guy that also runs the first unit, but the floor is so high with him that he’s worth selecting here before you start to descend into the players with very real question marks.

Carter Yakemchuk – The opposite of Dickinson at this point, being a high-upside play with a lot of questions behind him that belie a lower floor. As a six-foot-three, right-handed defenseman, he has tools that NHL teams will like which don’t impact fantasy leagues at all either.

HMs: Nikita Artamonov, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, Michael Hage, Andre Basha, Igor Chernyshov. (june12)

16. I thought we’d see how individual and team performances differed between this season (2023-24) and last season (2022-23). Specifically, we’ll focus on the greatest power-play decline/improvement, team offenses, and player shot averages. Let’s get into it!

Greatest Power Play Decline: Buffalo Sabres (-6.8%)

Last Season: 23.4% (Rank: 9)
This Season: 16.6% (Rank: 29)

Considering how dangerous they were with the man advantage last season, Buffalo’s power play struggles this year are a bit of a mystery. They had the same personnel available, but just couldn’t recreate last year’s magic.

Dylan Cozens, who saw prominent minutes on the top unit last year, was relegated to the second unit for a lot of this season, with Casey Mittelstadt often taking his place. A down year from Cozens partially contributed to the team’s less potent power-play. The 23-year-old forward went from a 68-point breakout season last year to a disappointing 47-point campaign this year. While the team may have been able to withstand regression from Cozens, the simultaneous struggles of team heartbeat Tage Thompson proved insurmountable. After scoring at a 99-point pace last year, Thompson paced for just 65 this season. He was hindered by injuries and couldn’t consistently display that game-breaking talent he flaunted last year. If your greatest offensive threat isn’t firing on all cylinders, it’s going to take some wind out of your power play’s sails.

The Sabres will have new voices guiding the power play next year as head coach Lindy Ruff and assistant coach Seth Appert are set to take over. (june 10)

17. Greatest Power Play Improvement: Carolina Hurricanes (+7.1%)

Last Season: 19.8% (Rank: 20)
This Season: 26.9% (Rank: 2)

Although it experienced some turbulence during the playoffs, Carolina’s power play was excellent during the regular season. The team converted on 26.9% of its opportunities, a success rate that ranked second to only Tampa Bay.

Just like last season, Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Brent Burns saw major minutes on the top unit. We did see some alterations to the final two spots of that unit though, with Seth Jarvis and Michael Bunting/Jake Guentzel occupying positions that were held by Martin Necas and Stefan Noesen last year. That Necas/Jarvis swap prompted a decline in Necas’ production and an uptick in Jarvis’. Such a result may have made Necas more expendable to the club, which would explain why his name has been circling in trade rumours.

Carolina’s lethal power play was a major reason that Sebastian Aho recorded a career-best 89 points this season.  32 of those points came with the man advantage, which also represents a career-high total.

Considering Guentzel racked up nine power-play points in his 17 regular season appearances with the Hurricanes, it’s tempting to conclude that he was responsible for the team’s improved power play. However, Carolina was already near the top of the league with a 26.4% success rate before Guentzel made his debut on March 12^th, so it’d be unfair to attribute all of the team’s success to him. (june 10)

[Follow the link for more…]

18. Players that take a lot of shots provide a ton of value in fantasy hockey formats. There’s the obvious contribution if your league tracks shots on goal, but shooting more often mean scoring more, so high-volume shooters are likely to help you in the goals category. Given the importance of shots, it’s useful to investigate when a player’s shot volume has changed from year to year. As we make projections for the season ahead, it’s important to understand whether changes are lasting or fleeting. Here are my thoughts on a few players who shot the puck significantly more/less this year than they did last year.

Shooting More

Jack Eichel
Last Season: 3.3 shots/game
This Season: 4.4 shots/game

Eichel’s increased shot rate was in part fuelled by increased offensive opportunity as he went from seeing 18:46 of ice time last year to 20:31 this year. His share or Vegas’ power-play time also jumped from 62.5% to 73.5%. I’d expect him to maintain this opportunity next year, allowing him to flirt with four shots per game again. (june 10)

19. Filip Forsberg
Last Season: 3.1 shots/game
This Season: 4.2 shots/game

I’d be wary because Forsberg has hovered around three shots per game for most of his career, suggesting this year’s increased shot volume may be an anomaly. That being said, this year was his first beside O’Reilly and Nyquist, so it’s plausible that the trio’s dynamic allows Forsberg to shoot more than he has in years past. It didn’t hurt that his average ice time was up a minute and a half relative to last season. (june 10)

[Follow the link for more…]

20. Shooting Less

Timo Meier
Last Season: 4.2 shots/game
This Season: 3.0 shots/game

Meier’s reduced shot volume this year was mainly due to unfavourable deployment. His total ice-time and share of power-play action increased dramatically once Tyler Toffoli was traded in early March. Meier went from 2.78 shots per game pre-Toffoli-trade to 3.55 per game post-Toffoli-trade. A full season of favourable deployment and better health should help Meier hover around four shots per game again. (june 10)

21. Jason Robertson
Last Season: 3.8 shots/game
This Season: 2.8 shots/game

Robertson saw a slightly reduced role this year, but I don’t think the magnitude of that change justifies his fall-off in shot volume. His ice time only fell by 30 seconds and his power-play share only dropped 6%.

In his first two seasons, Robertson averaged 2.5 and 3.0 shots per game. That makes last year’s 3.8 seem like the outlier, but I wouldn’t put too much stock into his early years because he was still finding his footing in the league. I’d say last year’s breakout was an accurate reflection of what the 24-year-old is capable of going forward, and he’ll be back around that 3.5-4.0 shots per game next year. I also wonder if playing beside an aging Joe Pavelski affected Robertson’s output this year. Was Pavelski more of a hindrance than a help down the stretch? We should get an answer to that question early next year as Pavelski is now set to retire. It’s worth noting that Pavelski led the team in power-play shots this year, posting 58 to Robertson’s 53. Last year, Robertson led the team with 99 while Pavelski had 63. (june 10)

[Follow the link for more…]

—

Have a good week, folks!
Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – visit the gang in the forum here.